Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

The issue is not whether the US will have deflation or inflation. The problem is with stagflation, (business stagnation accompanied by inflation).

Import price rises will continue to outpace domestic price increases:

And with ever dwindling natural resources, and the unstoppable decline in the exchange value of the dollar, an ever greater number of citizens will experience a protracted decline in their standard of living.

Well said my virtual friend. Well said.

I posted the last article to

(a) keep the thread "alive" as it's an important concept for new members to get their heads around
(b) to remind people that EJ already got this right

While I didn't expect FRED to shoot the article down in flaming glory (that was an added bonus ) ... it's important for people that are seeking macroeconomic web-enlightenment to realize that there are other authors out there who often get some of the pieces right - and some deadly wrong.

In hindsgiht, perhaps I should have expanded on why I threw the article up in the first place.

[metalman]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

The issue is not whether the US will have deflation or inflation. The problem is with stagflation, (business stagnation accompanied by inflation).

Import price rises will continue to outpace domestic price increases:



And with ever dwindling natural resources, and the unstoppable decline in the exchange value of the dollar, an ever greater number of citizens will experience a protracted decline in their standard of living.

yep, as predicted here...

[flow5]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

The issue is not whether the US will have deflation or inflation. The problem is with stagflation, (business stagnation accompanied by inflation).

Import price rises will continue to outpace domestic price increases:

The U.S. Import Price Index rose 3.2 percent in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S.
Department of Labor reported today, led by higher petroleum prices. The June increase followed a 1.4
percent advance in May. Export prices also increased in June, rising 1.1 percent after advancing 0.5
percent in the previous month.

And with ever dwindling natural resources, and the unstoppable decline in the exchange value of the dollar, an ever greater number of citizens will experience a protracted decline in their standard of living.

[centsless]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

Regarding grammar and typos, yes they can be found fairly often on iTulip. However, I am sure you will agree that the content, which is the reason all of us are here, is much more important that the form.

BTW, make sure to use the "uncloaking device" more often ;).

thank you largo, good to be welcomed outside federation territory within which i've lost much faith & a good portion of my net worth, apparently. so sorry i didn't find itulip before the crash. so glad i stumbled in before losing it all.

agreed that content is more important than form. i tried telling my teachers that my ideas meant more than my spelling but they marked me off nonetheless.

you'll pardon if i don't contribute much as i've not much to offer. just ask my grade school teachers. i still have so much to learn.

not everyone needs to write like hemingway. the world needs james joyce, too.

and, much to the chagrin of any irked by run-on sentences, jerzy andrzejewski's gates of paradise.

[metalman]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

hello forum. pet peeve forced the uncloaking of this stalker who enjoys reading your info. sorry to make my first post a correction of an alleged correction but i find no run-on in the quoted fred's sentence, as, if anything, it is overly, not underly, punctuated; and that just a matter of taste.

the pause which need not have been accentuated was the last comma (before "and each is managed") in the series of commas delineating fred's three (be)causes of how "we learned...to distinguish between...the fire economy and...the p/c economy". note also that the 2nd two becauses are properly silent and should have been readily understood even if not spelled out; though, i can see if someone missed that then they might have read it as a run-on sentence.

my pet peeve, you ask? full disclosure: all those stifling grade school teachers way back when complaining about my run-on sentences.

how i learned to deal with it: the more the reader is careless, the more the writer should care less.


(becauses in paretheses mine to illustrate the point)

[initializing cloaking device]

not everyone needs to write like hemingway. the world needs james joyce, too.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

hello forum. pet peeve forced the uncloaking of this stalker who enjoys reading your info. sorry to make my first post a correction of an alleged correction but i find no run-on in the quoted fred's sentence, as, if anything, it is overly, not underly, punctuated; and that just a matter of taste.

the pause which need not have been accentuated was the last comma (before "and each is managed") in the series of commas delineating fred's three (be)causes of how "we learned...to distinguish between...the fire economy and...the p/c economy". note also that the 2nd two becauses are properly silent and should have been readily understood even if not spelled out; though, i can see if someone missed that then they might have read it as a run-on sentence.

my pet peeve, you ask? full disclosure: all those stifling grade school teachers way back when complaining about my run-on sentences.

how i learned to deal with it: the more the reader is careless, the more the writer should care less.


(becauses in paretheses mine to illustrate the point)

[initializing cloaking device]

Well articulated post centsless.

Regarding grammar and typos, yes they can be found fairly often on iTulip. However, I am sure you will agree that the content, which is the reason all of us are here, is much more important that the form.

BTW, make sure to use the "uncloaking device" more often ;).

[centsless]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

It's a run-on sentence. They can be difficult to comprehend, so don't feel obtuse.

hello forum. pet peeve forced the uncloaking of this stalker who enjoys reading your info. sorry to make my first post a correction of an alleged correction but i find no run-on in the quoted fred's sentence, as, if anything, it is overly, not underly, punctuated; and that just a matter of taste.

the pause which need not have been accentuated was the last comma (before "and each is managed") in the series of commas delineating fred's three (be)causes of how "we learned...to distinguish between...the fire economy and...the p/c economy". note also that the 2nd two becauses are properly silent and should have been readily understood even if not spelled out; though, i can see if someone missed that then they might have read it as a run-on sentence.

my pet peeve, you ask? full disclosure: all those stifling grade school teachers way back when complaining about my run-on sentences.

how i learned to deal with it: the more the reader is careless, the more the writer should care less.

For example, we learned years ago to distinguish between asset price inflation and deflation in the FIRE Economy and goods and services price inflation and deflation in the Producer/Consumer Economy because the former drives the latter, (because) the former is more than ten times the size of the other in terms of aggregate payments, and (because) each is managed according to separate central bank policy.

(becauses in paretheses mine to illustrate the point)

[initializing cloaking device]

[Morelia]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

I had to read and re-read this.

For example, we learned years ago to distinguish between asset price inflation and deflation in the FIRE Economy and goods and services price inflation and deflation in the Producer/Consumer Economy because the former drives the latter, the former is more than ten times the size of the other in terms of aggregate payments, and each is managed according to separate central bank policy.

It's a run-on sentence. They can be difficult to comprehend, so don't feel obtuse.

[metalman]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

a few years ago contraryinvestor.com proposed that a key link between the 2 economies, causing the asset inflation in the fire economy to produce goods inflation in the p/c economy, was commodity prices. [that site did not use the "fire" vs. "p/c" language, but clearly referenced its hypothesis as asset inflation feeding into goods inflation.] what it said - translated into itulipese- was that the increased fire asset values led to increased consumption in the p/c economy, especially via heloc's and equity-out refi's. the increased goods consumption led to pressure on commodity prices and this led to goods price inflation. thus the fed was trapped, unable to keep pumping asset prices without causing goods inflation. i would add that fire market speculation/momentum players then pushed commodity prices farther and faster, thus amplifying the effect.

but... that's not the fire econ vs pc econ story tho, is it? the miracle of the fire econ is it creates asset inflation without p/c price inflation! too bad it doesn't work the other way... when the fire econ goes boof! it takes the p/c econ down with it.

[jk]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

a few years ago contraryinvestor.com proposed that a key link between the 2 economies, causing the asset inflation in the fire economy to produce goods inflation in the p/c economy, was commodity prices. [that site did not use the "fire" vs. "p/c" language, but clearly referenced its hypothesis as asset inflation feeding into goods inflation.] what it said - translated into itulipese- was that the increased fire asset values led to increased consumption in the p/c economy, especially via heloc's and equity-out refi's. the increased goods consumption led to pressure on commodity prices and this led to goods price inflation. thus the fed was trapped, unable to keep pumping asset prices without causing goods inflation. i would add that fire market speculation/momentum players then pushed commodity prices farther and faster, thus amplifying the effect.

[metalman]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

i see what you're doing here... testing it out. cool.

but... wow. that's a lot to lay on a guy.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

Whoa. I must admit FRED, that is a lot to think about.

I had to read and re-read this.

...

I need to reflect more on this, but your "illustration" appears to indicate that Goods Prices matter little when inflation moved into asset prices such as Real Estate.

That is until...the system reset to "equilibrium"? :eek:

[FRED]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

We will have both [inflation / deflation] at the same time!? :confused:

And me who thought people were not confused enough as it is with "disinflation" and "asset price deflation".


Having said that, thanks for posting FC. Here is your article embedded:


Thunder Road Report - Inflation-Deflation Debate -

We plan to soon implement iTulip's model of Internet Knowedge Accumulation.

We'll explain more later, but the basic idea is to not allow iTulip to get cluttered up with junk economics ideas the way the Internet is.

For example, we learned years ago to distinguish between asset price inflation and deflation in the FIRE Economy and goods and services price inflation and deflation in the Producer/Consumer Economy because the former drives the latter, the former is more than ten times the size of the other in terms of aggregate payments, and each is managed according to separate central bank policy.

Any economic analysis that does not distinguish between asset price inflation and deflation in the FIRE Economy and goods and services price inflation and deflation in the Producer/Consumer Economy goes into our new forum called Junk Economics.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

I thought this was interesting ...

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/8262850/...flation-Debate

We will have both [inflation / deflation] at the same time!? :confused:

And me who thought people were not confused enough as it is with "disinflation" and "asset price deflation".


Having said that, thanks for posting FC. Here is your article embedded:


Thunder Road Report - Inflation-Deflation Debate -

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Deflationistas, inflationistas, and hyperinflationistas - Eric Janszen

I thought this was interesting ...

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/8262850/...flation-Debate