The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

[jpatter666]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

toast,

I don't think you're objectively looking at what was said.

I couldn't agree more that critical feedback from the community is half the value here. But HV's gripe wasn't "I think your analysis is wrong because XXX". It amounted to "I wasted my money subscribing because this site is useless". He's certainly entitled to that view too. But his comment did not express a criticism of the base post. It only expressed that he thought there was no useful "tradeable" content on this site, and that he had wasted his money by subscribing and regretted that decision.

My point was simply that making comments that imply the site is without value probably isn't the most effective way to negotiate a refund, which is what he appears to want. If he had offered a substantive counter-argument, I'd have agreed with you, but he didn't.

xPat

It's been very hard for me to get in sync with what for the last ten years has been iTulip's primary investment strategy.

Do *nothing*.

The gold and treasuries investments were started in 2001 and continued every year since then. No changes, nada, since [OK, I recognize that EJ *has* made some side-investments in some non-public companies in the past year]. At any point, you could have established the gold/treasuries play and racked profits (and I'll give EJ credit for that -- he's been right on treasuries although I *still* have trouble wrapping my head around that one).

You can always be convinced you can do better, there is an overwhelming urge to find new things, invest in other areas -- the market is worse and more seductive than a craps table in Vegas!

Part of this is that iTulip IMO does a *horrible* job in managing expectations. There have been lots of promises for things that never happen or are delayed -- posted interviews, articles on various topics (I believe you've touched on that yourself xPat!), having more EJ postings, and what HV touches on, the semi-mythical (grin) future positions paper, which has been alluded to for (I think) nearly a year. It was going to be peak-Oil based, then TECI-based, and last month we were told (and I think most of us interpreted it that way) the next month's posting would finally have the positions. And what we get is a solicitation for an MLP which most of us can't participate in.

It's frustrating, I understand, I'm there myself.

But unfortunately, this is the world we are in now. As EJ has said (probably getting this wrong, but...) it's being driven as much by political considerations (if not more) as by market fundamentals. And that's a hell of lot harder read. I'm sure there are many days when EJ is pulling his hair out as well.

For the money (and honestly, I've seen subscriptions offering way less for far more) I think iTulip does a great job and has created an first-rate community. We've transforming into the next phase and the birthing process is always painful, but I hope you (HV) stay around for it -- I find your postings well-written and informative.

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

toast,

I don't think you're objectively looking at what was said.

I couldn't agree more that critical feedback from the community is half the value here. But HV's gripe wasn't "I think your analysis is wrong because XXX". It amounted to "I wasted my money subscribing because this site is useless". He's certainly entitled to that view too. But his comment did not express a criticism of the base post. It only expressed that he thought there was no useful "tradeable" content on this site, and that he had wasted his money by subscribing and regretted that decision.

My point was simply that making comments that imply the site is without value probably isn't the most effective way to negotiate a refund, which is what he appears to want. If he had offered a substantive counter-argument, I'd have agreed with you, but he didn't.

xPat

[we_are_toast]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

Hi HV,

I would suggest that a polite and respectful behind-the-scenes e-mail to the management saying you have decided this wasn't for you would probably stand a better chance of negotiating a refund than a public smear campaign. But your mileage may vary...

Best,
xPat

I disagree with you here xPat. I find the analysis here on iTulip to be valuable for it's macroeconomic approach and it's data supported conclusions. But I also find the opinions in the community who will challenge the analysis also very valuable. If HV found this thread not to be useful, it's going to make me take a second look. Maybe a different approach at expressing an opinion about the value of a posting would be more helpful, but I find contrary opinions to usually be very useful. One of the most important aspects of iTulip is it's willingness to allow dissenting debate (to a limit).

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

Hi HV,

I don't mean to be combative here, and hope my earlier comment didn't come across that way.

FWIW, I'm a very active trader, and I read a LOT of people, focusing on the trade-inspiring advice many of them give. I put EJ's commentaries in a special category of their own. I almost never even read them during the trading day/week when I am going 200 miles an hour trying to sort through the BS looking for worthwhile gems I can trade. Instead, I generally save them for the weekend because (1) I know they almost never have anything to do with short-term trading strategies, and (2) I find they are the most insightful, thought-provoking long-term macro commentaries I have access to. I prefer to read them when the markets are closed and I won't be distracted by trade alarms going off in the background.

The hero worship comment strikes me as a bit silly. I don't worship EJ or consider him a "hero". Rather, I embrace his perspective for the value it has in helping me shape my own macro view of the world, and I find it to be the best in the business. Since you obviously don't agree, I would suggest that a polite and respectful behind-the-scenes e-mail to the management saying you have decided this wasn't for you would probably stand a better chance of negotiating a refund than a public smear campaign. But your mileage may vary...

Best,
xPat

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

EJ,

Thanks as always for another post with insightful commentary. Your grasp of the macro picture never ceases to impress me. (Sorry hv, this is not a trader's site, and the fact that it's about the big, long-term picture should have been obvious to you before you subscribed).

But I can't resist the desire to respectfully object to the misplaced attempt at being fancy with the whiz-bang flash format. I really don't want to have to read all the comments in order to glean sufficient insight to know what to click on in order to see the content. The old fashioned format that reads top to bottom with interesting graphs between the text was far superior to this approach. In my opinion, this format puts gimmick ahead of substance, and that's a huge departure from what I've come to know and love about this site. I recognize and respect that you probably just intended to make the presentation more "interactive" but IMHO it's not working.

xPat

I can respect the perspective that this is a website for a long term investor - and I happen to consider myself one. I rarely trade for short term profits myself.

However, regardless of whether one takes a long or short term view, the view must translate into something of substance on the basis of which you can invest (even if it is for the long term). Telling people that you advised your investors to buy gold in 2001 which shows how smart you are doesn't cut it.

If you run an investment fund, you are only as good as your last year. No one cares what you did in 2001. I don't get the sense that anyone here has any serious or sensible ideas about making any investment decisions that are really rooted in the commentary here. There are some thing most smart people can notice - you don't need paid commentary for that.

And pardon me if I don't participate in hero-worship. Not my cup of tea, thank you.

Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

EJ,

Thanks as always for another post with insightful commentary. Your grasp of the macro picture never ceases to impress me. (Sorry hv, this is not a trader's site, and the fact that it's about the big, long-term picture should have been obvious to you before you subscribed).

But I can't resist the desire to respectfully object to the misplaced attempt at being fancy with the whiz-bang flash format. I really don't want to have to read all the comments in order to glean sufficient insight to know what to click on in order to see the content. The old fashioned format that reads top to bottom with interesting graphs between the text was far superior to this approach. In my opinion, this format puts gimmick ahead of substance, and that's a huge departure from what I've come to know and love about this site. I recognize and respect that you probably just intended to make the presentation more "interactive" but IMHO it's not working.

xPat

[hayekvindicated]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I agree with Chomsky, please explain what in this article is causing you to react this way hv.

The fine art of saying nothing.

There's no tradeable advice. This is not new. I've noticed this from the day I joined.

I didn't become a subscriber to participate in interesting and stimulating (but also pointless) intellectual discussions. If that's what I wanted I would have gone to a university course (or become the benighted Michael Hudson's student).

It is a total waste of time.

[metalman]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I agree with Chomsky, please explain what in this article is causing you to react this way hv.

lacking ideological purity?

[LargoWinch]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I wish I could cancel my subscripton. Too late for that I guess.

I agree with Chomsky, please explain what in this article is causing you to react this way hv.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

What's the matter, HV? You've seemed especially dyspeptic of late.

Might be because the sun has been shining here lately

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

when i click on the 1st chart i get a new chart & comments. no matter how fast i click i get a new chart... no janszen.com. i get text if i mouseover anywhere on the 2nd chart. slick as shit, if you ask me.

Slick, yes; intuitive, no. Nice first try, but it comes up short.
It was only by accident that I discovered the notations on the second chart when I moused over, and still wonder if I got them all.

A better graphic design / interface design is at the Washington Post article. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...gap/index.html
The little line of numbers at top with PREVIOUS and NEXT buttons is a powerful design element for the reader to move through the material.

There should always be a clear button that looks like a button for every function.
Invisible mouse-over regions to generate actions are terrible in that regard.
The simple forward/back concept is great for a Flash animation. So is go/stop.

There should always be a clear button that looks like a button for every function.
There should always be a clear button that looks like a button for every function.
There should always be a clear button that looks like a button for every function.....

[Chomsky]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I wish I could cancel my subscripton. Too late for that I guess.

What's the matter, HV? You've seemed especially dyspeptic of late.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I wish I could cancel my subscripton. Too late for that I guess.

[we_are_toast]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

A 4th is a global currency crisis, a 5th an expanded ME war, and a 6th is a property crash in China. The next Peak Cheap Oil Cycle may trigger some or all of the above.

Unfortunately, I think this list can grow quite long. How about high speed computer trading in the markets? How long will it be before a foreign gov. or terrorist organization, or a bug in some software, or a virus, is able to place a few $trillion in trades in a few milliseconds and cause the worlds financial markets to come tumbling down? It's nothing but a big casino now and it's only a matter of time before someone busts the house.

[FRED]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I'm assuming that the 3 year window is being driven by the next anticipated round of oil price spikes due to Peak Oil. Correct?

As explained in the first presentation on the Output Gap Trap, there are at least three potential triggers:

1) Reflation politics: fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and the money supply and economy shrink.
2) US runs out of foreign credit needed to roll over existing debt.
3) Next Peak Cheap Oil Cycle

A 4th is a global currency crisis, a 5th an expanded ME war, and a 6th is a property crash in China. The next Peak Cheap Oil Cycle may trigger some or all of the above.