The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

[ST]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

In my humble opinion, designing flash presenations is a small but real craft within the graphics arts.
Just like a brochure or a flyer, they can be elegant and intuitive or scattered and difficult.

I have every confidence that EJ and his associates will look at a few, take a few notes, maybe read a book, and then start producing first rate flash presentations.

Yes, exactly.

Usually I love pushing the tech envelope - however where comprehension is paramount, some features are just mandatory. There's really no excuse for not being able to pause the slides so that you can look, think and absorb the vast amount of information that is being conveyed within the graphs & conclusive commentary.

Ideally you should be able to download the slides, too - because otherwise we are restricted to re-reading the content on a computer. I like to print his editorials and keep them in a binder and periodically look through them/re-read them. For me, over time that is when the pieces all fall into place - when placed within context of other writings from him and other people, as well. This is much, much more interesting than trying to search online and painfully read it on screen.

[I suppose I am an old fashion gen-X'er because, on a similar note, if real hard copy books, for instance, also go away (due to e-books) I will forever mourn the inability to browse a personal collection of books]

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

Trying to find copper bottomed answers to a form of DRM

There is another side to this issue, Chris.

The open source work that I have done (in the Linux kernel mostly) has gone on to provide substantially larger benefit, to a wider class of users, for a far longer period of time, in part as an essential basis for work that others have done layered on top of my work ... than anything I did in proprietary software.

On the other side, the open source work that others have done has provided me with far better, richer and more valuable software (by my rather geeky standards) than anything that has come from the proprietary side.

I will always be grateful that I had the opportunity to share such wealth, giving and receiving, with mutual benefit to many people around the world.

This is why I suggested above that this is not an either-or question. Some proprietary ownership and control of ones market and product is required. Some sharing of ideas, infrastructure, understanding and common technology is also required. People naturally understand this in families and close communities. There is shared work, knowledge, tools, and lodging, and there are personal possessions and private labors.

Vibrant communities, including virtual and technology driven spheres, work at both layers at the same time.

I did enough proprietary work to live well and retire modestly. I did enough openly shared work to put a smile on my face when I look back at the contributions I was able to make.

It's a bit of both, Chris.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

while the "open sense" that hackers such as myself hold is held by many who work for those entrepreneurs or who are now collecting unemployment or social security.

Good morning Wriggly, you have hit the nail on the head, (so to speak), while at one and the same time you have highlighted the underlying problem, unemployment.

I too have an electronic product, an e-book. If I add DRM it gets hacked, if I, as I have, place the e-book on the market without DRM and ask people to respect my need to earn an income, no one pays for the book.

Until the message sinks in that hacking into and unemployment are two facets of the same problem; neither side of the equation will be able to prosper.

Trying to find copper bottomed answers to a form of DRM is not the way forward, it is education, of the people that "take" without paying that must learn that society overall, pays a very high price for the freebe. Once that lesson sinks in, then prosperity will return.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I completely and totally missed that point. That doesn't mean EJ wasn't clear - just that I'm sometimes prone to "blonde moments". Thanks for straighening me out, 'Cow.

Whether I straightened you out, or pulled you down into the swamp of confusion with myself, remains to be seen.

I'm all for EJ protecting his intellectual property, if that's the concern. Just makes me wonder if there is a better way.

Having spent over a decade as an open source champion in a proprietary computer company, I too suspect that there are better ways.

However what I really suspect is that there are different ways that people can view the product they produce.

The "proprietary sense" that EJ (from what I can tell) holds for the some of the more unique products of his labor is held by many of the more successful entrepreneurs,

while the "open sense" that hackers such as myself hold is held by many who work for those entrepreneurs or who are now collecting unemployment or social security.

I cast my lot with the second group above, but I have to allow as how the first group above (entrepreneurs and proprietors such as EJ) have a point, and often more business success.

The first group above however does perennially struggle to find technical solutions to their IP control requirements, as in the case of the use of Flash we're discussing here. It's been that way for as long as I can remember. I've designed and coded a few such "solutions" myself. There are seldom any good solutions here, just more or less adequate compromises.

What works best in my experience is a symbiotic relationship between the two groups. Some IP is more productively managed as property, and some as shared understanding.

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I thought that EJ had been clear on his motive here. He doesn't (if I read correctly) like his charts being stolen by other websites.

I completely and totally missed that point. That doesn't mean EJ wasn't clear - just that I'm sometimes prone to "blonde moments". Thanks for straighening me out, 'Cow.

I'm all for EJ protecting his intellectual property, if that's the concern. Just makes me wonder if there is a better way.

xPat

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

But what I don't understand is why they would even pursue getting better at flash presentations, when the simple format of text with static charts between the paragraphs seems to be the much-preferred format by most of the folks who have commented here.

I thought that EJ had been clear on his motive here. He doesn't (if I read correctly) like his charts being stolen by other websites.

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

I have every confidence that EJ and his associates will look at a few, take a few notes, maybe read a book, and then start producing first rate flash presentations.

I agree that EJ and colleagues are super-smart people, and I share your confidence in their ability to learn to do this well. But what I don't understand is why they would even pursue getting better at flash presentations, when the simple format of text with static charts between the paragraphs seems to be the much-preferred format by most of the folks who have commented here.

xPat

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

In my humble opinion, designing flash presenations is a small but real craft within the graphics arts.
Just like a brochure or a flyer, they can be elegant and intuitive or scattered and difficult.

I have every confidence that EJ and his associates will look at a few, take a few notes, maybe read a book, and then start producing first rate flash presentations.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

Is there a way to pause this damn thing? Or download the slides?

I was about to suggest that I posted (long and tedious) instructions to EJ's first chart in the rest of that post of mine to which you were responding.

However looking back now, it seems that the interface to that first chart of EJ's in the opening post of this thread has changed its User Interface since I wrote those instructions.

So ... never mind ... I don't have any instructions for how it works presently.

P.S. -- I doubt there is anyway to download the slides. From what I understand of it, part of EJ's motives in going to the fancier Macromedia Flash interface was to inhibit easy downloading, as that led to easy theft of EJ's charts by other bloggers on the web.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

Is there a way to pause this damn thing? Or download the slides?

Fred, if I may say "I told you so", here's a great example.
steveaustin is known to be a fiercly intelligent and capable person, but is struggling with your user interface on the presentation.

[ST]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

By the "1st chart", I presume you mean the first chart in EJ's Post #1, with the title "Output Gap Trap: What is it?" and the slowly changing "Rolodex" of graphcs.

Is there a way to pause this damn thing? Or download the slides?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

We liked your suggestions on the first animation and changed it, but disagree on the second. The text change on mouseover to show different eras in the graph are effective.

Thank you kindly for taking my suggestions seriously.

I find hidden mouse-over regions turn a presentation into a puzzle. Instead, some version of "next slide, please" would allow me to see next what you want me to see next. Or at least some visual target that tells me touching here will do something.

But suit yourself.
I'm genuinly delighted to get the info from EJ any way he wants to present it!
Cheers.

[FRED]

Re: The American Output Gap Trap – Part I: We have three years to escape or we’re dead meat - Eric Janszen

Slick, yes; intuitive, no. Nice first try, but it comes up short.
It was only by accident that I discovered the notations on the second chart when I moused over, and still wonder if I got them all.

A better graphic design / interface design is at the Washington Post article. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...gap/index.html
The little line of numbers at top with PREVIOUS and NEXT buttons is a powerful design element for the reader to move through the material.

There should always be a clear button that looks like a button for every function.
Invisible mouse-over regions to generate actions are terrible in that regard.
The simple forward/back concept is great for a Flash animation. So is go/stop.

There should always be a clear button that looks like a button for every function.
There should always be a clear button that looks like a button for every function.
There should always be a clear button that looks like a button for every function.....

We liked your suggestions on the first animation and changed it, but disagree on the second. The text change on mouseover to show different eras in the graph are effective.

[Down Under]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

No need to be sorry Down Under.

Instead of speculating here, perhaps vinoveri (or someone with great Google-fu skills) can pull out the article in question so that we can review it again? It feels to me that this discussion is without context.

If the guy who made the call, states:

Before we get into the scenarios, a mea culpa on the bad market call: a 20% to 30% S&P correction before the end of the year.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Big thumbs up on content. Big thumbs down on format!

This may not be the one I remember, but is relevant to the topic at hand, including my question as to my liquidity cannot product tradable bubbles, and makes a prediction, albeit not a call. I had access to part II when I was a subscriber, but no longer.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...nszen?p=146070

quote below from part II I believe

"EJ: The DJIA may end the year off as much as 25%, down to between 7,500 and 8,000. This alternative approach to forecasting the DJIA produces an independent result that is consistent with our previous forecast of the S&P 500 off 15% to 20% in 2010 that was arrived at in a reversion to the mean analysis of inflation-adjusted price levels."

vinoveri, your quote is accurate (as per Part II).

I believe the confusion as per our previous discussion lies with the fact that two methods were used for forecasting: one in $real (reversion to mean inflation-adjusted) and another using the Dow matching the post-bubble Nikkei 225 in $nominal (used to generate the Dow 7,500-8,000 range).