
I do wish there were more activity here but maybe there's nothing much to talk about because price discovery seems totally broken and it's a game of Kremlinology as EJ said over a decade ago after the housing bubble crashed.
Since traffic here dwindled away, it's been difficult finding people who have interesting ideas on what's going on in markets. I have found one fellow, David B. Collum on X (formerly Twitter) who is a Cornell University professor of organic chemistry of all things. Over his life, he's been a pretty good investor (bought bonds in the early 1980s, bought stocks in the early 1990s, sold stocks in the late 1990s and avoided the dot-com crash, bought gold in the late 1990s/early 2000s, avoided the housing bubble crash of 2008) but has kind of screwed up this cycle (as he says it, he "boned it") and has had rather low returns.
Valuations are so high and interest rates are fairly low but actual inflation is quite high so that Collum is saying that the next cycle could be like the late 1960s - 1982 or so: a horrible secular bear market. It's kind of depressing reading although it doesn't have to be a few lost decades if we get a humongous crash.
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