The Fat Lady Sings

[*T*]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

That fat lady got a proper pair of lungs on her, ain't she?

[bill]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=9616#poststop

My last purchase was 123.10 ,,,wait for the bounce to get in.

Bounce in full force.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...1e0&refer=home

Yen Has Biggest Two-Day Drop in Three Years Versus Euro on Risk

By Bo Nielsen and Aaron Pan



Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell against the euro, heading for its biggest two-day drop since 2004, as investors resumed riskier bets financed by borrowings in Japan.
The Bank of Japan today maintained the lowest interest rates among major economies, spurring gains in high-yielding currencies such as the New Zealand dollar. Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said it received a $2 billion infusion from Bank of America Corp., reassuring investors the global credit rout is being contained.
``People are starting to think the credit crisis is coming to an end,'' said Richard Vullo, head of corporate foreign exchange sales in New York at Fortis Financial Services LLC. ``With all the good news, people are going back to carry trades, and the yen is falling.''
The yen dropped 0.93 percent to 157.66 per euro at 10:26 a.m. New York time. It has fallen 2.4 percent against the European currency in the past two days for the biggest decline since March 2004. The yen declined 0.80 percent to 116.26 against the dollar.
The Bank of Japan today kept its benchmark rate at 0.5 percent. One of nine members of the central bank's board, Atsushi Mizuno, voted to raise the overnight lending rate.
The central bank's governor, Toshihiko Fukui, said in Tokyo there's a risk that keeping interest rates too low will spur risky investment. He also said the bank was watching how credit- market turmoil would affect confidence.
Yen's Decline
The Japanese currency dropped 2.5 percent against the New Zealand dollar and 2.2 percent versus Australia's dollar as investors returned to carry trades.
``It's far too early to assume that risk is gone,'' said Camilla Sutton, co-head of currency strategy in Toronto at Scotia Capital Inc. ``These are temporary moves. Consumers have held up the U.S. economy so far, but the credit crisis will challenge them.''
A gauge of U.S. consumer confidence in August released by the Conference Board next week is forecast to match the lowest reading this year, according to the median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
First-time applications for jobless benefits fell last week, evidence that the U.S. labor market is holding up in the face of a widening credit crunch.
Initial unemployment claims declined by 2,000, in line with forecasts, to 322,000 in the week that ended Aug. 18, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, rose to 317,750 from 313,000.
Last Week's Advance
The yen last week posted the biggest increase against the euro since March 2000 as the subprime mortgage crisis spread through global credit markets.
The U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index has gained 4.1 percent in the past five days after losing 6 percent the previous five, signaling investors are regaining their appetite for risk.
Japan's benchmark rate compares with 8.25 percent in New Zealand, 6.5 percent in Australia and 5.25 percent in the U.S. The yield on the three-month euro-yen future for September rose 2 basis points to 0.85 percent today, indicating traders are betting the BOJ will increase rates at the next meeting on Sept. 18-19.
Investors saw a 39 percent chance of a rate increase next month, according to Credit Suisse Group calculations based on interest payments.
`Right Thing'
``The Bank of Japan did the right thing today,'' said Callum Henderson, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. ``They'll probably wait a couple of months until there are further signs the Japanese economy is recovering.''
Volatility on one-month dollar-yen options fell to 11.40 percent from 12.35 percent yesterday. Lower volatility may encourage carry trades as it implies less risk of losing money on exchange-rate swings.
The euro rose 0.12 percent to $1.3559 per dollar, near the highest in a week, on speculation the global credit-market crisis won't hurt economic growth enough for the European Central Bank to delay raising interest rates as soon as September.
Europe's single currency headed for a two-day rally after the ECB indicated yesterday it was sticking to the policy expressed by President Jean-Claude Trichet on Aug. 2, when he pledged ``strong vigilance'' on inflation, a phrase that has signaled each of the eight rate increases since late 2005.

[rj1]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

RJ1 -

Looks like there is no bounce in sight yet - take a look at Bill's track of the far east markets from yesterday evening in the post directly above yours. This looks like it's shaping up to be a series of rolling wave declines. Investors are getting eaten alive if this runs through Friday. If it runs into next week it's going to be picking up some serious momentum.

I'm not feeling too comfortable with my silver holdings - but they are one hell of a lot higher quality in a stock market bear than any equities.

Well, the Fed pulled the rug up from underneath you before the bell and your "ferocious bounce" occurred.

It looks like your silver is doing okay though.

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

RJ1 -

Looks like there is no bounce in sight yet - take a look at Bill's track of the far east markets from yesterday evening in the post directly above yours. This looks like it's shaping up to be a series of rolling wave declines. Investors are getting eaten alive if this runs through Friday. If it runs into next week it's going to be picking up some serious momentum.

I'm not feeling too comfortable with my silver holdings - but they are one hell of a lot higher quality in a stock market bear than any equities.

[bill]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

WOW Tanking 8/17/2007 2:08:49 PM (HKT)
NIKKEI 225 INDEX -5.42%
SHANGHAI SE B SHARE INDEX -4.05% Historical... SHENZHEN SE B SHARE INDEX -6.45%

[rj1]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Jim - There will be a ferocious bounce, further bewildering participants - that's my guess.

Congratulations. You win the prize.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings


This is pasted out of my spreadsheet from 2:05AM EDT. Sorry for the screwed up formatting. The first number in the Middle column is points down, and the second is %down. The good news in Sri Lanka is up--green 4.44 points & 0.18%. The last column is appoximately how much the index has corrected off it's high (this is not exact data)

Asia(Roll over for charts)
Country: Index	Last
DJ Asia-Pacific	146.49	-4.32	-2.86	-12.70%
Australia: All Ordinaries*	5711	-90.20	-1.55	-11.58%
Australia: S&P/ASX*	5687	-100.90	-1.74	-11.49%
China: DJ CBN China 600*	36458	-649.01	-1.75	-1.91%
China: DJ Shanghai*	480	-8.53	-1.75	-1.75%
Hong Kong: Hang Seng*	20585	-790.58	-3.70	-12.52%
India: Bombay Sensex*	14494	-506.54	-3.38	-8.61%
Indonesia: JSX Index*	1901	-127.75	-6.30	-20.93%
Japan: Nikkei Average*	16155	-321.10	-1.95	-11.73%
Japan: Nikkei 300*	315	-5.26	-1.64	-13.37%
Japan: Topix Index*	1567	-26.69	-1.67	-13.73%
Malaysia: DJ Malaysia*	239	-9.77	-3.93	-19.18%
Pakistan: KSE 100*	12691	-95.81	-0.75	-10.64%
Philippines: PSE Index*	2942	-188.03	-6.01	-22.62%
S. Korea: Seoul Composite*	1692	-125.80	-6.92	-15.89%
Singapore: DJ Singapore*	253	-10.10	-3.84	-15.62%
Singapore:Straits Times*	3123	-150.38	-4.59	-14.95%
Sri Lanka: Colombo All Share*	2427	4.44	0.18	-19.91%
Taiwan: Weighted*	8201	-391.67	-4.56	-16.12%
Thailand: SET*	742	-31.64	-4.09	-16.05%
			-4.06	-14.34%

The last 4.06 is the average percentage lost tonight, and the -14.34% is the average off highs.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

That was the bounce. Second big wave of fear coming.

Eric,

To what specifically does THAT refer, and down here in Texas we usually say "That thar."

[EJ]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Perhaps you will be correct, for the sake of my own greed, I hope you are correct.

That was the bounce. Second big wave of fear coming.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Jim - There will be a ferocious bounce, further bewildering participants - that's my guess.

Perhaps you will be correct, for the sake of my own greed, I hope you are correct.

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Jim - There will be a ferocious bounce, further bewildering participants - that's my guess.

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

WDCRob - Your absolutely right - ugliest market since 2002. Time for serious thinking if one is exposed to equities. I swear next time Eric Janszen says "sell everything" I will be accepting the advice without question, and glad of it. If there is a next time.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Tomorrow, the fat lady screams.

EJ is very good, or prescient, or goddammed lucky, and I really think it is the first.

I think perhaps there will be SCREAMING in the Europa & US tomorrow, based on how the Asian markets are plunging tonight.

The US markets are very oversold and have been for some days now, and the question in my mind is whether they will bounce or flat out crash--based on Asia it is looking like the tendancy is to crash.

[WDCRob]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I went looking for the Asian markets after I posted last and have been watching.

I've been (mostly) out of stocks since May 2006, but was getting a bit twitchy when the Russell 3k went to 900. Got back in the black today compared to if I'd stayed in that index, and will sleep better tonight for not being exposed to tomorrow.

Have to say this is all a bit scary to someone who doesn't trade though. It's like sitting down at a real-money poker table for the first time, only a lot more so.

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Sure looks mighty ugly.

3000-4000 Euro Pacific clients are holding right now. That's Peter Schiff's outfit. My broker in Newport Beach office says virtually none of them are selling a damn thing.

One thing you can say about Peter Schiff, the guy has nerves of steel. Seems the firm's philosophy rubs off on the clients - for better or worse. :rolleyes:

He's gotten quite wealthy off the strategy, holding the same gold shares through every last correction for eight or nine years. If he gets stinking rich from the strategy, you'll have to hand it to him - he earned it.