The Fat Lady Sings

[Finster]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

(Comment: Growing public doubts about the rationality of "safe haven bonds" - a perception shift which iTulip has suggested could be an early warning signal of an approaching significant bid on Gold, are generally expected to appear only at the far side of KA, or otherwise years from now, and this past two weeks market events are thought to be the just the start of a significant deflationary interlude.

According to Jim Sinclair, who is clearly partial to metal as hard money rather than the senior currencies, the earliest hints of that public doubt regarding the viability of bonds as "safe" from the inevitable CB liquidity response may in fact already already be here:

_______________________

Posted On: Thursday, August 09, 2007, 1:39:00 PM EST at the Jim Sinclair website :

Dear CIGAs,

I mentioned on my gold chart that there is a supposed flight to the safety of bonds that is taking place today amidst the general turmoil in the markets and that is supposedly giving the dollar a boost. The problem with that analysis that I keep hearing today is that the bond market has barely moved in price this morning and for all practical purposes is trading nearly unchanged as I write this. Previous drops of this magnitude in the equity indices have seen bond and note prices move sharply higher.

We might be seeing some folks putting two and two together and realizing that massive injections of liquidity are not exactly conducive to the health of bonds as such sets the stage for rampant inflation as Monty has detailed for us earlier today?

Sinclair is usually best ignored, but he's firing on all cylinders here. UST's *should* have rallied more than they did, and after several months of punk performance gold is acting a little spunky. Which is as it should be; when it looks like the CBs are panicking and starting to throw money around (after months of tough talk about inflation), gold should outperform.

[jimmygu3]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Read the book EJ co-authored: America's Bubble Economy. It has a suggested allocation. I don't have it in front of me, and I don't remember the details, but it was something like 30% gold, 40% Euros, and the rest cash in dollars. Maybe somebody else can provide the correct assets and percentages.

Thanks, Andreuccio. I have the book at home and I'll brush up on it this weekend.

Jimmy,
Obviously the only thing to do would be to send me your money and I'll make you richer than Howard Hughes a week from next Thursday, I guarantee it and you won't find a better guarantee anywhere else. PM me and we'll work out the details. Thanks.

Tet, that's wonderful news! FYI, I am a jailed Nigerian Prince. I will happily send you certified funds of $1M as soon as you pay the transfer fee of $23,000. ;)

I am not asking for a crystal ball or a detailed analysis of my personal investments. I hardly think that seeking "safety" means I expect to be Howard Hughes in a week. However, when someone of great knowledge and insight like EJ says, "Don't say we didn't warn you", but neglects to give even a general action plan, I think it leaves questions to be answered.

Jimmy

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

(Comment: Growing public doubts about the rationality of "safe haven bonds" - a perception shift which iTulip has suggested could be an early warning signal of an approaching significant bid on Gold, are generally expected to appear only at the far side of KA, or otherwise years from now, and this past two weeks market events are thought to be the just the start of a significant deflationary interlude.

According to Jim Sinclair, who is clearly partial to metal as hard money rather than the senior currencies, the earliest hints of that public doubt regarding the viability of bonds as "safe" from the inevitable CB liquidity response may in fact already already be here:

_______________________

Posted On: Thursday, August 09, 2007, 1:39:00 PM EST at the Jim Sinclair website :

Dear CIGAs,

I mentioned on my gold chart that there is a supposed flight to the safety of bonds that is taking place today amidst the general turmoil in the markets and that is supposedly giving the dollar a boost. The problem with that analysis that I keep hearing today is that the bond market has barely moved in price this morning and for all practical purposes is trading nearly unchanged as I write this. Previous drops of this magnitude in the equity indices have seen bond and note prices move sharply higher.

We might be seeing some folks putting two and two together and realizing that massive injections of liquidity are not exactly conducive to the health of bonds as such sets the stage for rampant inflation as Monty has detailed for us earlier today?

_______________________

(Comment: "Massive injections of liquidity" by the same token are not exactly conducive to the health of the Euro or Dollar either).

[Andreuccio]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I won't say you didn't warn me. I'll just say you didn't tell me where to put my money. I believe that stocks are due for a (continuing) crash. I have seen the proverbial iTulip light. I just don't know where the safest places to have my savings are for the time being.

Are we perhaps seeing PMs rising (decoupling) due to shorts covering, and/or are burned investors seeking shelter there? Or are PMs headed down, too? Will the Fed try to inflate our way out of this (making cash a less attractive place to be and pushing up nominal asset prices)? What about inflation-indexed T-bills? Seems like a good shelter to me, even with the rigged CPI.

Answers? Guidance? EJ? Fred?

THANKS!

Jimmy

Read the book EJ co-authored: America's Bubble Economy. It has a suggested allocation. I don't have it in front of me, and I don't remember the details, but it was something like 30% gold, 40% Euros, and the rest cash in dollars. Maybe somebody else can provide the correct assets and percentages.

[bill]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I won't say you didn't warn me. I'll just say you didn't tell me where to put my money. I believe that stocks are due for a (continuing) crash. I have seen the proverbial iTulip light. I just don't know where the safest places to have my savings are for the time being.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=9616#poststop

My last purchase was 123.10 ,,,wait for the bounce to get in.

[Tet]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I won't say you didn't warn me. I'll just say you didn't tell me where to put my money. I believe that stocks are due for a (continuing) crash. I have seen the proverbial iTulip light. I just don't know where the safest places to have my savings are for the time being.

Are we perhaps seeing PMs rising (decoupling) due to shorts covering, and/or are burned investors seeking shelter there? Or are PMs headed down, too? Will the Fed try to inflate our way out of this (making cash a less attractive place to be and pushing up nominal asset prices)? What about inflation-indexed T-bills? Seems like a good shelter to me, even with the rigged CPI.

Answers? Guidance? EJ? Fred?

THANKS!

Jimmy

Jimmy,
Obviously the only thing to do would be to send me your money and I'll make you richer than Howard Hughes a week from next Thursday, I guarantee it and you won't find a better guarantee anywhere else. PM me and we'll work out the details. Thanks.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I won't say you didn't warn me. I'll just say you didn't tell me where to put my money. I believe that stocks are due for a (continuing) crash. I have seen the proverbial iTulip light. I just don't know where the safest places to have my savings are for the time being.

Are we perhaps seeing PMs rising (decoupling) due to shorts covering, and/or are burned investors seeking shelter there? Or are PMs headed down, too? Will the Fed try to inflate our way out of this (making cash a less attractive place to be and pushing up nominal asset prices)? What about inflation-indexed T-bills? Seems like a good shelter to me, even with the rigged CPI.

Answers? Guidance? EJ? Fred?

THANKS!

Jimmy

You are asking million-bonar questions, and I imagine a lot of individuals are reluctant to offer you advice about what to do with YOUR money, maybe I'm wrong, and they will.

If YOU think stocks are going to "crash," it seems to me if I thought that, I'd rather be in CASH. It took me a long time to grasp Ka-Poom (if I have in fact), but based on that, cash could be good. If one cannot always be invested in what appears to be going up, then a worthy goal is to be in what doesn't appear to be going down.

Whatever is to play out from the past few days of excitement I think will take longer than next week to finally unfold.

I wish I could tell you exactly what YOU should do, but I can't.

I hold no commodities now, 5% gold, silver, and mining stocks, 69% cash, about 13% short equity indices, ~10% yen, and 2% long US$ index, and I have been in these all for some weeks at least. Added to shorts, Tuesday before big run-up Wed.

Good luck.

[jimmygu3]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Don't say we didn't warn you.

I won't say you didn't warn me. I'll just say you didn't tell me where to put my money. I believe that stocks are due for a (continuing) crash. I have seen the proverbial iTulip light. I just don't know where the safest places to have my savings are for the time being.

Are we perhaps seeing PMs rising (decoupling) due to shorts covering, and/or are burned investors seeking shelter there? Or are PMs headed down, too? Will the Fed try to inflate our way out of this (making cash a less attractive place to be and pushing up nominal asset prices)? What about inflation-indexed T-bills? Seems like a good shelter to me, even with the rigged CPI.

Answers? Guidance? EJ? Fred?

THANKS!

Jimmy

[Jeff]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Um, Eric, wasn't it March 2000, rather than March 2001 when iTulip last made a prediction?

[metalman]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

You haven't made me feel defensive, I don't think, and I have no disrespect in me for EJ, but he puts his britches on like everyone else--one leg at a time, and as such (unless he is a closet-ninja), no one is immune to being wrong. It is great to step up, make a statement, take a real swing at the ball, but nevertheless, it takes time to see if what anyone says about the future at a given moment proves to be prescient or not. I hope EJ is prescient, or rather has gathered enough insight to seem prescient.

seem prescient...

maybe i don't hang out here enough to get the impact of being too familiar with what he's said. just go to the top of the main page... oh, here...

http://foohack.com/2007/08/when-will...these-pundits/

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Metalman - In case you didn't notice - gold and silver have hardly budged while everything else plunges. Looks like they are getting set to decouple. Anyone thinking they are going to time a great entry point into that area is dinking around.

I would not be in the slightest bit surprised if they do decouple now or soon.

I find Mish to be a bore, although I can't say exactly why. He seems completely hypnotized by the housing and credit bubble and only bangs on a few piano keys all the time. Also he uses the word "Missive" which drives me bonkers.

As far as selling everything in this correction, I disagree. If you anticipated this and built very conservatively allocated portfolio percentages for the medium term, in one or two sectors with the strongest prospects, you are just cruising through this correction without sweating it too much.

Holding through this stuff tests conviction, and "builds investing character", which is not an insignificant habit for collecting the really big payola from long term investing.

When the markets perk up again as the all global CB's reflate in unison, everyone will be chasing (once again) right back into these sectors with yet more churning of their assets.

Euro Pacific clients largely pick the large long term themes, allocate sensibly, and sit tight. That's an investing principle that seems lost on a large portion of this community.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

lessee... march 2000 stocks down, april it's a bear, aug 2001 gold up, july 2007 stocks down... and that's it. i dunno. seems to me that takes discipline. also, i read all this shit here about these other guys, like mish. didn't you listen to the mish/ej 'debate'? did you get the idea mish has any idea what he's talking about? does he talk to the guys who actually run the cdo funds? to the guys who work in the banking system like mayer? to guys on the receiving end of the lbo bubble like challenger? and so on? i'm trying to imagine mish getting an interview with any of them. who are his sources?

love ya jim but i think you're missing the point. remember were ej comes from. he knows these guys, talks to them. but he's on our side. i just wish it all didn't mean watching my gold and silver get pummeled before the reflate. but it's looking that way.

You haven't made me feel defensive, I don't think, and I have no disrespect in me for EJ, but he puts his britches on like everyone else--one leg at a time, and as such (unless he is a closet-ninja), no one is immune to being wrong. It is great to step up, make a statement, take a real swing at the ball, but nevertheless, it takes time to see if what anyone says about the future at a given moment proves to be prescient or not. I hope EJ is prescient, or rather has gathered enough insight to seem prescient.

[metalman]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Can't argue with the record; nevertheless, it is most difficult to pick a point in the market and say, "Okay, Sapphire, sing."

Personally for many reasons I hope you are absolutely, unequivocally on the money.

lessee... march 2000 stocks down, april it's a bear, aug 2001 gold up, july 2007 stocks down... and that's it. i dunno. seems to me that takes discipline. also, i read all this shit here about these other guys, like mish. didn't you listen to the mish/ej 'debate'? did you get the idea mish has any idea what he's talking about? does he talk to the guys who actually run the cdo funds? to the guys who work in the banking system like mayer? to guys on the receiving end of the lbo bubble like challenger? and so on? i'm trying to imagine mish getting an interview with any of them. who are his sources?

love ya jim but i think you're missing the point. remember were ej comes from. he knows these guys, talks to them. but he's on our side. i just wish it all didn't mean watching my gold and silver get pummeled before the reflate. but it's looking that way.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Look at the record. Consider the source.

The courage of a conviction has its risks. Lack of courage has greater.

Can't argue with the record; nevertheless, it is most difficult to pick a point in the market and say, "Okay, Sapphire, sing."

Personally for many reasons I hope you are absolutely, unequivocally on the money.

[FRED]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

It sticks in my mind, "don't look to good, nor talk to wise." What Kipling didn't say is that," if you violate my advice, it may come back and bite you on your ass."

Look at the record. Consider the source.

The courage of a conviction has its risks. Lack of courage has greater.