gold to $650, silver to $9.80

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

the argument around here for why gas didn't go to $10 is the dollar cartel and the bubble the fire economy created in dollars, making oil cheap. the uk... and ireland, australia, and others... had fire econs of their own. the uk's is toast and the pound is getting pounded. the usa's is over and the bonar is on its way to pesoville. as always some stocks will go up, but i'm not smart enough to pick 'em...

'I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.' - jesse livermore

' The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.' - jesse livermore

Jumping into the stock market just now would scare me to death! I don't know enough about who is who right now, and whether they are safe (comparatively) to invest in.

Not being a high flyer, and trying to keep my nest egg from getting broken, I need to be playing with the house's money in order to just throw it away. But I have my eye on a few little companies, and if they survive this cycle, I'll know where to place my bet.

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

I agree that an investment in metals is not entirely safe, but so long as you are prepared to neither access the metal, bury it deep, and wait for however long it takes for the value to equal the original investment, I don't see a problem, particularly when I call all paper money FAKE money these days, and consider it only worthwhile until I spend it...mostly these days on upgrading the little farm, and gathering in long term food and water storage, against disaster.



Having been expecting $10.00/gallon gas prices since 1985 - after a trip to England when I drove around the island at $7.00 dollars/gallon - I see a rapid, forced switch to public transportation, and an immediate switch to commuting by phone and computer. Americans have always done what they have to, although I admit we've gotten out of practice lately.

But unless America starts switching their energy dollars into restructuring how we live in America, I don't see any happy endings for anyone. And if we actually do....well, then I can see light at the end of the tunnel.

With gold and silver, one has the reality of true coinage, and one has to look at what gold and silver will buy, particularly since there is little income to be had of it, unless you are buying and selling large lots constantly.

Since saving fiat currency at a stated 4% APR is actually closer to -4% in real terms, I would rather have my cash in metals, and my long term investments in small rental properties that are held forever. As the economy strengthens, then I'll take an occasional flyer on a stock or two.

the argument around here for why gas didn't go to $10 is the dollar cartel and the bubble the fire economy created in dollars, making oil cheap. the uk... and ireland, australia, and others... had fire econs of their own. the uk's is toast and the pound is getting pounded. the usa's is over and the bonar is on its way to pesoville. as always some stocks will go up, but i'm not smart enough to pick 'em...

'I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.' - jesse livermore

' The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.' - jesse livermore

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Forrest -

We all need to keep in mind however that to call gold and silver "safe" is a considerable misconception.

I agree that an investment in metals is not entirely safe, but so long as you are prepared to neither access the metal, bury it deep, and wait for however long it takes for the value to equal the original investment, I don't see a problem, particularly when I call all paper money FAKE money these days, and consider it only worthwhile until I spend it...mostly these days on upgrading the little farm, and gathering in long term food and water storage, against disaster.

You are making a very specific market call by positioning significantly into these. Having said that, I have yet to read a compelling argument anywhere, as to how $400 oil could cause a rise in the purchasing power of fiat money in a fiat money world.

Having been expecting $10.00/gallon gas prices since 1985 - after a trip to England when I drove around the island at $7.00 dollars/gallon - I see a rapid, forced switch to public transportation, and an immediate switch to commuting by phone and computer. Americans have always done what they have to, although I admit we've gotten out of practice lately.

But unless America starts switching their energy dollars into restructuring how we live in America, I don't see any happy endings for anyone. And if we actually do....well, then I can see light at the end of the tunnel.

With gold and silver, one has the reality of true coinage, and one has to look at what gold and silver will buy, particularly since there is little income to be had of it, unless you are buying and selling large lots constantly.

Since saving fiat currency at a stated 4% APR is actually closer to -4% in real terms, I would rather have my cash in metals, and my long term investments in small rental properties that are held forever. As the economy strengthens, then I'll take an occasional flyer on a stock or two.

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Forrest -

My bad. And indeed what you describe is a very cautious stance. The little farm forms a very valuable part of the overall configuration also, as one of the most direct expressions of ultra-expensive oil must be directly into the food complex. We all need to keep in mind however that to call gold and silver "safe" is a considerable misconception. You are making a very specific market call by positioning significantly into these. Having said that, I have yet to read a compelling argument anywhere, as to how $400 oil could cause a rise in the purchasing power of fiat money in a fiat money world.

None of my investments are in stock...just gold, and some well located rental property, as well as living on a tiny farm that can produce most of what my family eats.

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Forrest -

Can't say I find your game plan too focused on the most probable events upcoming.

Don't forget you are looking at $400 oil in just another seven or eight years? Yes indeed. $400 well within a decade. While the entire world tries to squeeze through the eye of a needle into a non-hydrocarbons new industrial paradigm in the space of maybe 5 years out there? Stock markets? Uh, better be equipped with multiple airbags.

And gold is not necessarily a "safe" asset as it can see 25% drawdowns (or worse!) any time. $400 oil makes the events you ponder below concerning the presence or absence of fiscal prudence in America a sideshow - because the larger inflationary event will be happening to all nations in the world. Still does not seem to have sunk in to a lot of iTuliper's frames of reference. If you don't buy the $400 a barrel oil in 7 years you should nonetheless obtain a firsthand view of our progress towards that end within a much shorter time frame, e.g. two to three more years?

A) Pondering possibilities for US fiscal prudence leading to a stronger US dollar and a stable US economy is a waste of time, because all paper money is going to catch fire and incinerate in a world of $400 a barrel oil, along with the economies too, who will be convulsing as they try to squeeze 40 years of industrial paradigm changes frantically into 10 years, and B) the flowering of "GreenTech" and the growth of India and China, and the distinction of "stable" vs. "unstable stock markets" may be an entirely moot point as well, as $400 oil well and truly puts the entire world economy in crisis.

That is really all we need to know. Are we really going to have $400 oil in seven or eight years, and if so, how can any of our economies or stock markets possibly remain "normal"? Some people here suggest that will be orderly, like an English bus queue - I think that requires a remarkable stretch of the imagination.

<< My newly earned more valuable dollars under deflation, that I receive as income from other investments, on the other hand, will be able to buy more of profitable investments than they can in their current weak state >>

I say, "Dream on".

Ah, Lukester, you didn't hear the IF of my answer to the rumor that the economy is deflating.

If I thought our economy was deflating, that is how I would act.

I agree with you that it is not...between the banking mess, the ridiculous government debt levels, and debt peonage ever expanding in the U.S. and around the world, I feel it is far more likely that we will have a good deal of inflation, and a truly scary economic climate for some time.

None of my investments are in stock...just gold, and some well located rental property, as well as living on a tiny farm that can produce most of what my family eats.

I do hope that the powers that be manage to re-orient our economy into Green Tech, mostly so that I can go completely off grid at a cheaper price than I can now, but I am prepared with plans for whatever happens. I would also like to take advantage of communication and transportation technology around the world, a bit here, and a bit there, so as to tred lightly in these essentially risky business climates.

But, since I don't believe the powers that be will be able to do all that much, I am hunkering down, and getting ready to weather a very bad storm.

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Forrest -

Can't say I find your game plan too focused on the most probable events upcoming.

Don't forget you are looking at $400 oil in just another seven or eight years? Yes indeed. $400 well within a decade. While the entire world tries to squeeze through the eye of a needle into a non-hydrocarbons new industrial paradigm in the space of maybe 5 years out there? Stock markets? Uh, better be equipped with multiple airbags.

And gold is not necessarily a "safe" asset as it can see 25% drawdowns (or worse!) any time. $400 oil makes the events you ponder below concerning the presence or absence of fiscal prudence in America a sideshow - because the larger inflationary event will be happening to all nations in the world. Still does not seem to have sunk in to a lot of iTuliper's frames of reference. If you don't buy the $400 a barrel oil in 7 years you should nonetheless obtain a firsthand view of our progress towards that end within a much shorter time frame, e.g. two to three more years?

A) Pondering possibilities for US fiscal prudence leading to a stronger US dollar and a stable US economy is a waste of time, because all paper money is going to catch fire and incinerate in a world of $400 a barrel oil, along with the economies too, who will be convulsing as they try to squeeze 40 years of industrial paradigm changes frantically into 10 years, and B) the flowering of "GreenTech" and the growth of India and China, and the distinction of "stable" vs. "unstable stock markets" may be an entirely moot point as well, as $400 oil well and truly puts the entire world economy in crisis.

That is really all we need to know. Are we really going to have $400 oil in seven or eight years, and if so, how can any of our economies or stock markets possibly remain "normal"? Some people here suggest that will be orderly, like an English bus queue - I think that requires a remarkable stretch of the imagination.

<< My newly earned more valuable dollars under deflation, that I receive as income from other investments, on the other hand, will be able to buy more of profitable investments than they can in their current weak state >>

I say, "Dream on".

They might be wrong, but even if they are correct, to me that would be a good thing, so that the economy worldwide can stabilize, and not go through an inflationary cycle.

If the dollar deflates, my income in dollars will rise in value, and buy more, while the price of gold will adjust to what the dollar buys, and as demand for it is still high, I will be able to sell gold at a true, uninflated profit, having transferred my cash to gold in 2005.

I am not in gold to make a profit due to inflation, but because of coming scarcity of the metal, and to have my liquidity in a safe, tradable asset that is able to survive inflationary times.

My newly earned more valuable dollars under deflation, that I receive as income from other investments, on the other hand, will be able to buy more of profitable investments than they can in their current weak state. In addition, with a more stable economy, I will be able to invest that dollar income in the GreenTech Infrastructure industry with some confidence that I will not lose innate value in those investments due to an inflationary spiral.

As a stronger, more stable economy winds into action here in America, I can invest dollars that are suddenly worth more into a safer U.S.. market, and profit from riskier investments to profit from the growth industries in India and China.

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

if you read jesse livermore, you'll read lots of stories of stock manipulations - driving prices up or down to fleece other holders. there is no doubt that buying or selling a huge number of futures contracts in what is a relatively small market - like that of the pm's - will in the short run drive prices this way or that. but it seems to me that it cannot affect prices in the long run. the shorts must be covered, the longs must be closed eventually. open interest goes up and then down again. and the long term trend - the really long term trend - is untouched.

by the same token, i think it naive to believe that this moment's gold price is necessarily a true measure of value. to believe so is to assert that this moment's price is resting precisely on the long term trend line. but this is unlikely. it is much more likely that there is some momentary deviation from the trend, and it is especially likely that there is a significant such deviation in the face of a quick and big expansion of open interest in a relatively small market. otoh, these deviations of value from the trend line provide opportunities for trading for those so inclined.

It is true that today's gold price is not necessarily reflective of a specific value in any currency, but despite global fiat currencies, it does have a value that can be realized even in the worst markets.

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

But wait, the financial times told me we're entering deflation...:rolleyes:

They might be wrong, but even if they are correct, to me that would be a good thing, so that the economy worldwide can stabilize, and not go through an inflationary cycle.

If the dollar deflates, my income in dollars will rise in value, and buy more, while the price of gold will adjust to what the dollar buys, and as demand for it is still high, I will be able to sell gold at a true, uninflated profit, having transferred my cash to gold in 2005.

I am not in gold to make a profit due to inflation, but because of coming scarcity of the metal, and to have my liquidity in a safe, tradable asset that is able to survive inflationary times.

My newly earned more valuable dollars under deflation, that I receive as income from other investments, on the other hand, will be able to buy more of profitable investments than they can in their current weak state. In addition, with a more stable economy, I will be able to invest that dollar income in the GreenTech Infrastructure industry with some confidence that I will not lose innate value in those investments due to an inflationary spiral.

As a stronger, more stable economy winds into action here in America, I can invest dollars that are suddenly worth more into a safer U.S.. market, and profit from riskier investments to profit from the growth industries in India and China.

[jk]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

if you read jesse livermore, you'll read lots of stories of stock manipulations - driving prices up or down to fleece other holders. there is no doubt that buying or selling a huge number of futures contracts in what is a relatively small market - like that of the pm's - will in the short run drive prices this way or that. but it seems to me that it cannot affect prices in the long run. the shorts must be covered, the longs must be closed eventually. open interest goes up and then down again. and the long term trend - the really long term trend - is untouched.

by the same token, i think it naive to believe that this moment's gold price is necessarily a true measure of value. to believe so is to assert that this moment's price is resting precisely on the long term trend line. but this is unlikely. it is much more likely that there is some momentary deviation from the trend, and it is especially likely that there is a significant such deviation in the face of a quick and big expansion of open interest in a relatively small market. otoh, these deviations of value from the trend line provide opportunities for trading for those so inclined.

[phirang]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Manipulation of this kind seems to be the hallmark of those who induce fear in others, and then profit by it.

In possessing gold at least we have more in our hands than a piece of paper, or a brokers statement telling us that we have 'wealth', and can hopefully bear the daily supposed gains and losses in value that we might have had, 'if only'!

Many investors have gotten so used to the idea of buying paper investments low, and selling high that they forget that with gold they own something tangible that has a real value, no matter how it is expressed in fiat currency reckoning.

Gold is never worthless, though it is true that on rare occasions in history there may have been nothing to trade it for. And, since the value of gold is not entirely dependant on those manipulating it's trading, one can, with a little patience, watch with relative equinimity the banking houses and governments play their games.

One may not be able to always buy and sell gold at the perfect highs and lows, but holding ownership of a chunk of the stuff is comforting.

Gold has the infinite reassurance inherent in it, that it is a real form of wealth that has value attached to it by almost anyone.

It takes only a little shift of perception to learn to bear not looking at the daily gains and losses of the fiat currency value of gold, and simply hang on to the knowledge that despite the number of dollars you might have traded for it, gold is the real measure of value, and that if the price of gold goes down, you have lost nothing but a perceived value.

The gold is still gold. The currency's stated worth is what truly changes.

What is left for us to do then is to watch without emotion for the times to buy and sell, and buy again.

But wait, the financial times told me we're entering deflation...:rolleyes:

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php

Reminds me of the ESF funded by FDR stealing gold at 20/oz and reselling it at 35/oz...

Manipulation of this kind seems to be the hallmark of those who induce fear in others, and then profit by it.

In possessing gold at least we have more in our hands than a piece of paper, or a brokers statement telling us that we have 'wealth', and can hopefully bear the daily supposed gains and losses in value that we might have had, 'if only'!

Many investors have gotten so used to the idea of buying paper investments low, and selling high that they forget that with gold they own something tangible that has a real value, no matter how it is expressed in fiat currency reckoning.

Gold is never worthless, though it is true that on rare occasions in history there may have been nothing to trade it for. And, since the value of gold is not entirely dependant on those manipulating it's trading, one can, with a little patience, watch with relative equinimity the banking houses and governments play their games.

One may not be able to always buy and sell gold at the perfect highs and lows, but holding ownership of a chunk of the stuff is comforting.

Gold has the infinite reassurance inherent in it, that it is a real form of wealth that has value attached to it by almost anyone.

It takes only a little shift of perception to learn to bear not looking at the daily gains and losses of the fiat currency value of gold, and simply hang on to the knowledge that despite the number of dollars you might have traded for it, gold is the real measure of value, and that if the price of gold goes down, you have lost nothing but a perceived value.

The gold is still gold. The currency's stated worth is what truly changes.

What is left for us to do then is to watch without emotion for the times to buy and sell, and buy again.

[phirang]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Is there a connection between 3 U.S. banks selling an additional 78,611 gold futures contracts (7,861,100 ounces) in a month, followed shortly by a severe price decline in gold? That’s equal to 10% of annual world production and amounts to more than $7 billion worth of gold futures being sold by 3 U.S. banks in a month. How can this extraordinary concentrated trading size not be manipulative?
Because prices fell so sharply after the short sales were taken (with the appropriate dirty tricks as I have previously explained) holders of known physical silver in the world suffered a decline in value of more than $2.5 billion and long COMEX silver futures holders suffered a similar $2.5 billion decline in the value of their contracts. In gold, because the dollar value held is much greater than silver, investor losses were much greater, on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars on their physical holdings. Declines in the value of mining shares adds many billions more. Was this loss of value caused by the concentrated short selling of 2 or 3 U.S. banks?
What real legitimate business do 2 or 3 U.S. banks suddenly have for selling short such quantities of speculative instruments over a brief time period? Do we want banks to be engaging in this type of activity? If the manipulation was not successful, would U.S. taxpayers be called on to bail out yet another bank speculation gone bad?

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php

Reminds me of the ESF funded by FDR stealing gold at 20/oz and reselling it at 35/oz...

[Finster]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Finster! You have returned! I was beginning to think the two headed Cerberus dog had lost one of it's noggins. All I can report is that the Bart-Cerberus has been a little more frequent a poster than usual in past months (translates as uttering more than a few monosyllables occasionally) but this has probably been due to his "other half" having gone out for an extended Sabbatical. Have you been sojourning in the "Brown Study"?

Never really left, Lukester. I started a band and it's been taking a lot of time. It will probably continue to do so for a while until we get our basic repertoire down. But meanwhile, I will still have to pop in at least now and then just to make sure you and Bart don't get tooo out of line ... ;)

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Hi Rick -

Apologies for the late reply - I have an office move on my hands down here. I'll PM you on the weekend.

lol Me too, i sold half of my PMs at 19.6 silver and 980 gold. Not because I have a brain more because i was scared of the big draw downs i have experienced every time the PMs make a big run. Only wish that i had gotten all out. I know I know they would have then gone up.

Luke, it would be nice to know who to subscribe to or pay to get the advice. Not sure i would take it as i am getting way too much as it is. But if your numbers come in, i will send u a check for the name big guy. How is So Calif doing?

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Kinda like oil ... ;)

Finster! You have returned! I was beginning to think the two headed Cerberus dog had lost one of it's noggins. All I can report is that the Bart-Cerberus has been a little more frequent a poster than usual in past months (translates as uttering more than a few monosyllables occasionally) but this has probably been due to his "other half" having gone out for an extended Sabbatical. Have you been sojourning in the "Brown Study"?