gold to $650, silver to $9.80

[Finster]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Gold is only a monetary dysfunction story.

Kinda like oil ... ;)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Lukester's undisclosed advisor's call: Gold 650, silver 9.80 based on ??

Bensimon's July call. Gold 732 in April or May 2009 based on Elliot wave and Fibonacci numbers.

akrowne's assessment. $780 marginal cost of production of gold

babbittd: Robin Griffiths 750 based on ??

EJ.'s call: He just knows--780

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GO...69&a=129594324

Here's stockcharts.com continuous contract prices with low yesterday of 777.70.

If EJ, akrowne, or Griffiths are near correct, most of the pain is passed.

If Bensimom is correct there is still 5.9% to the downside from yesterday's low.

If the undisclosed advisor were to be correct, there is still 16.4% to the downside from yesterday's low for gold.

Here is another call on gold by Marc Faber http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008...stem-blows-up/

Dr Doom: ‘Let us just assume the financial system blows up…’

Gold — and the division of assets - is on the mind of Marc (aka Dr Doom) Faber this week in a special interim note to his subscribers. It’s not a particularly attractive trade right now, he notes, although personally, he’s hooked. And anyway, people have been asking …..

For investors with all their assets in US dollar cash (and no other holdings), Faber suggests accumulating gold from here on down to possibly $600/oz. While not necessarily forecasting such a drop (from the current level of about $820/oz), he notes the metal could decline to that level.

Those with “99 per cent of their assets in gold and no cash flow” should hold for now, says Faber, as the gold chart looks “truly horrible” since prices fell below the key support levels of around $850.

For traders, however, gold may have some short-term appeal right now because it is becoming oversold. But what, then, is the immediate upside potential? Heavy resistance would seem to exist at $850-$900 while the downside risk is at least as large as the upside potential.

If you care to look, click the link from my original post above and as of 8/21/08 $GOLD moved back above its 325 DMA.

Can anyone imagine an investor that Faber knows who has 99% of their assets in gold? I can't.

Unless I missed something above, Faber's notion of a possible 600$ floor for $Gold is the lowest I encountered from any pundit.

[rabot10]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

he doesn't know how to use google. he's still trying to figure out the dewey decimal system.

lol Me too, i sold half of my PMs at 19.6 silver and 980 gold. Not because I have a brain more because i was scared of the big draw downs i have experienced every time the PMs make a big run. Only wish that i had gotten all out. I know I know they would have then gone up.

Luke, it would be nice to know who to subscribe to or pay to get the advice. Not sure i would take it as i am getting way too much as it is. But if your numbers come in, i will send u a check for the name big guy. How is So Calif doing?

[jk]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

That said, I've made some decent timing calls that make it appear as though making money on trade timing is possible. For consistency, I will not longer provide those here but elsewhere.

eric, "elsewhere" meaning other threads or meaning other venues than itulip?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

will rogers was making a joke... you can't not buy a stock because it didnt go up, you've already bought it. that's called irony.

this livermore quote sounds like what ej was saying: "Every stock is like a human being : it has a personality - a distinctive personality - aggressive, reserved, hyper, high-strung, volatile, boring, direct, logical, predictable, unpredictable. I often studied stocks like I would study people; after a while their reactions to certain circumstances become more predictable."

livermore was anti-trading, just life all the guys who made lots of money: "Throughout all my years of investing I've found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting."

that's not what he did, tho. he kept trading anyway, even though he knew it wasn't the way to make money. the #1 problem with active trading is that it uses up your time. the jim rogers way, you spend your time living your life... livermore's most famous quotation: "My life has been a failure."

Believe it or not, I do and have from first reading of Will Rogers' quote understood it. Actually, it strikes me more as being a non sequitur; whatever it is, it is possible to accomplish the first part: buy a good stock and hold it till it goes up. That is possible. But then what is next? It could go down, at which time my approach would be to have decided, hopefully, when I would cut the loss of profits.

Life in interesting. When I worked 10 or more hours most days, and 5-6 most Saturdays and Sundays, more than once someone told me to "get a life." Often these were people who spent their times doing the same things repetitively when they did not work. Golfing incessantly, tailgating at every home and away ballgame, fishing, hunting, playing gin or bridge with every free minute, etc. I've lived life, I been around the world and many other places abroad more than I can readily count. I've traveled in all the states and seen many things--but not everything in the world for sure. I'm met my share of interesting characters.

Presently, which has actually been for a couple or three years, the only thing that seriously interests me is attempting to make more money by playing in the stock market. Nothing else attracts my interest--whether that is good or bad in the eyes of any other human, I don't give a shit.
I'm not out to make the money because I have immediate needs for it, just to do it is the game.

If I die today, my life has been a good life. There are things looking back that were it possible, I'd do differently, but that isn't life. Several effects from my life, which I found out by chance, are to my assessment perhaps the most important results of my life. Probably we never know what has been the full impact of our lives, so to make a self-assessment could come up short.

Edit: The best part of my life right now, is that I can do any goddammed thing I wish to do, and that was not the case for most of my life.

[Andreuccio]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

the #1 problem with active trading is that it uses up your time. the jim rogers way, you spend your time living your life... livermore's most famous quotation: "My life has been a failure."

I don't spend much time trading. I do, however, spend a significant amount of time reading iTulip.

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Awh, shit!! I totally blew that, didn't I? I was wondering why EJ was singling me out. See, I keep writing I am not very smart, and I don't always read with full comprehesion. Glad to be wrong here.

I agree fully with Rogers' (Will) philosophy. To make it work, one has to close it out if the position goes against the hope.

will rogers was making a joke... you can't not buy a stock because it didnt go up, you've already bought it. that's called irony.

this livermore quote sounds like what ej was saying: "Every stock is like a human being : it has a personality - a distinctive personality - aggressive, reserved, hyper, high-strung, volatile, boring, direct, logical, predictable, unpredictable. I often studied stocks like I would study people; after a while their reactions to certain circumstances become more predictable."

livermore was anti-trading, just life all the guys who made lots of money: "Throughout all my years of investing I've found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting."

that's not what he did, tho. he kept trading anyway, even though he knew it wasn't the way to make money. the #1 problem with active trading is that it uses up your time. the jim rogers way, you spend your time living your life... livermore's most famous quotation: "My life has been a failure."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

i like buffet's quote -

"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."

Check out BRKA ,and it makes one wonder if Buffet has forgotten his rule, at least for most of this year. I think it just shows that nobody can be correct without setbacks.

[touchring]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

You realize that EJ was talking about the other Jim was considered by another interviewee as extremist, right?

Got another investment tip for you

"Don't gamble. Take your savings and buy some good stock and hold it til it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." - Will Rogers

i like buffet's quote -

"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

You realize that EJ was talking about the other Jim was considered by another interviewee as extremist, right?

Got another investment tip for you

"Don't gamble. Take your savings and buy some good stock and hold it til it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." - Will Rogers

Awh, shit!! I totally blew that, didn't I? I was wondering why EJ was singling me out. See, I keep writing I am not very smart, and I don't always read with full comprehesion. Glad to be wrong here.

I agree fully with Rogers' (Will) philosophy. To make it work, one has to close it out if the position goes against the hope.

[FRED]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

But, oh FRED, wouldn't the world be a much duller place if we all wore the same faddish clothing, had the same tattoos, listened to the same songs on iPods, had the same wireless carrier, and no one owned anything but an iPhone, had the same sized flat-screen TV's, drove the same model of Infinity's, had exactly the same features in our home theaters in our McMansions and all had to act on what any single financial guru thought?

I couldn't stand it.

Seriously, if my "extremism" is counter-productive to the goals of iTulip, let me know, and I'll come blow out your knees; I am not an extremist. Seriously let me know if I am sand in the gears, and I'll try to stop commenting. You know I actually wil stoop and pickup a penny on the street, I guess my philosophy is one should try to make a buck when and wherever one encounters the opportunity.

You realize that EJ was talking about the other Jim was considered by another interviewee as extremist, right?

Got another investment tip for you

"Don't gamble. Take your savings and buy some good stock and hold it til it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." - Will Rogers

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

The essence of Rogers' philosophy: "People feel like they always have to be doing something, constantly making trades. What they don't see is that this takes time, time they could be spending making real money. I spend my time looking for a free bag of cash that someone's left in the corner. When I find it, I go pick it up."

Here at iTulip we choose to spend our time looking for free bags of cash, such as PMs in 2001, and figuring out when to dump them instead of trading in and out of little price movements.

But, oh FRED, wouldn't the world be a much duller place if we all wore the same faddish clothing, had the same tattoos, listened to the same songs on iPods, had the same wireless carrier, and no one owned anything but an iPhone, had the same sized flat-screen TV's, drove the same model of Infinity's, had exactly the same features in our home theaters in our McMansions and all had to act on what any single financial guru thought?

I couldn't stand it.

Seriously, if my "extremism" is counter-productive to the goals of iTulip, let me know, and I'll come blow out your knees; I am not an extremist. Seriously let me know if I am sand in the gears, and I'll try to stop commenting. You know I actually will stoop and pickup a penny on the street, I guess my philosophy is one should try to make a buck when and wherever one encounters the opportunity.

[FRED]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

When I first retired and was too cheap to stay online much, this was 1992-3 somewhere in there, and I was longdistance from any internet connections being way out in the woods in Alabama my main contact with what was happening in the investment world was CNBC. Rogers used to be on there not uncommonly, and someway I got his address and wrote him offering to pick him up in Birmingham when he flew home to go to visit his mother who was in Demopolis, AL. I am sure I told him I would do this, and I would have, so as to be able to talk with him about whatever he wished to talk. He wrote me back on a post card (which I still have taped to my chest) thanking me but failing to accept my offer.

With both of us being Alabama boys, I am sure we would get along.

I am sure Rogers knows nothing about trading, oh, but wait, isn't that the way he made his forture (actually I don't know whether he traded or was a buy and holder), so it would actually be a wasted conversation probably because it would be like the local trash collector talking with a rocket scientist at Houston.

The essence of Rogers' philosophy: "People feel like they always have to be doing something, constantly making trades. What they don't see is that this takes time, time they could be spending making real money. I spend my time looking for a free bag of cash that someone's left in the corner. When I find it, I go pick it up."

Here at iTulip we choose to spend our time looking for free bags of cash, such as PMs in 2001, and figuring out when to dump them instead of trading in and out of little price movements.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

A conversation between you and Jim Rogers would be highly entertaining.

When I first retired and was too cheap to stay online much, this was 1992-3 somewhere in there, and I was longdistance from any internet connections being way out in the woods in Alabama my main contact with what was happening in the investment world was CNBC. Rogers used to be on there not uncommonly, and someway I got his address and wrote him offering to pick him up in Birmingham when he flew home to go to visit his mother who was in Demopolis, AL. I am sure I told him I would do this, and I would have, so as to be able to talk with him about whatever he wished to talk. He wrote me back on a post card (which I still have taped to my chest) thanking me but failing to accept my offer.

With both of us being Alabama boys, I am sure we would get along.

I am sure Rogers knows nothing about trading, oh, but wait, isn't that the way he made his forture (actually I don't know whether he traded or was a buy and holder), so it would actually be a wasted conversation probably because it would be like the local trash collector talking with a rocket scientist at Houston.

[drumminj]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Last things, first. I try not to "imply" anything, and I have not implied nor thought to myself that anyone who doesn't trade is a "silly sap."

Jim, I don't have much to say with regards to the rest of your comment (besides thanks for the insights -- I do need to pick up a book on TA one of these days just so I can understand the specifics of what people are talking about, but simply knowing that TA + presumably a gut feel is what led you to unload those positions is helpful), but I wanted to apologize for reading too much into your comments here. You do appear to be one to not hold back your opinions, so I have no reason not to believe that you did not intend to imply such a thing.