Presidential Starts

[we_are_toast]

Re: Presidential Starts

All these charts seem to be showing similar trends to me. And those trends spell trouble for the Dems going into the mid-terms. Even if they get a health care bill passed, "Main Street" America isn't going to notice anything different in their lives the next day.

When SNL starts doing skits about a "do-nothing" President who campaigned on "Change" I just can't imagine Rahm and the gang sitting around lamenting...they are going to do something [with populist appeal]...

Polls this early are meaningless. Obamas numbers at this point in his presidency are actually slightly above normal.

As far as generic D's V R's, ABC and CBS both have the D's up by 12% which would be huge for a party with this majority going into a midterm. Americans have an attention span of about a week (time between American idol shows). Elections aren't decided on issues, they're decided on deception and personalities. Start paying attention to polls about a month before the elections.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Presidential Starts

All these charts seem to be showing similar trends to me. And those trends spell trouble for the Dems going into the mid-terms. Even if they get a health care bill passed, "Main Street" America isn't going to notice anything different in their lives the next day.

When SNL starts doing skits about a "do-nothing" President who campaigned on "Change" I just can't imagine Rahm and the gang sitting around lamenting...they are going to do something [with populist appeal]...

agreed on all points. I didn't post the Gallup chart in an attempt to prove that confidence is high.

[GRG55]

Re: Presidential Starts

Polls this early are meaningless. Obamas numbers at this point in his presidency are actually slightly above normal.

As far as generic D's V R's, ABC and CBS both have the D's up by 12% which would be huge for a party with this majority going into a midterm. Americans have an attention span of about a week (time between American idol shows). Elections aren't decided on issues, they're decided on deception and personalities. Start paying attention to polls about a month before the elections.

You have a lot more experience regarding the political scene in the USA than I do, so I am loathe to disagree. In "normal" circumstances I would agree with you whole-heartedly, since voters everywhere including the Anglophone part of my country behave about the same [one week attention span; only some Francophones take our politics seriously].

But these are far from "normal" circumstances and I truly doubt that the Dems can ignore the poll trends until the last four weeks. If unemployment keeps rising, houses keep being foreclosed upon, companies keep going bankrupt, the voters think the bankers are continuing to be protected, and the impression persists that the "President of Change" hasn't actually accomplished much of anything, I doubt they'll be able to pull it out of the fire by promising more Hope.

This is Obama's Recession now. And so far nothing they have done seems to be working...

[c1ue]

Re: Presidential Starts

This is Obama's Recession now. And so far nothing they have done seems to be working...

I'd also add that the party line of 'Green Shoots' was a very stupid move.

By goosing the economy and running the PR full steam on 'Green Shoots' - now a full break with the Bush economy has been achieved.

While I agree that blaming Bush is not a long term solution - on the other hand it absolutely could have been milked for a longer period.

What Obama has done is to try and nip this recession in the bud with full bore printing presses supporting TBTF banks - a veritable short term window dressing of a clearly long term problem.

Should a double dip occur I think the weight of all his past sins will land right on him and his party. All the "Well he's fixing the economy" wait-and-sees will now realize the full extent of his lack of initiative.

Only the complete ham handed idiocy of the Republicans is obstructing what could potentially have been a significant party shift...but there's still time for them to figure out what to do.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Presidential Starts

Obamas numbers at this point in his presidency are actually slightly above normal.

Normal in what way?

[GRG55]

Re: Presidential Starts

I'd also add that the party line of 'Green Shoots' was a very stupid move.

By goosing the economy and running the PR full steam on 'Green Shoots' - now a full break with the Bush economy has been achieved.

While I agree that blaming Bush is not a long term solution - on the other hand it absolutely could have been milked for a longer period.

What Obama has done is to try and nip this recession in the bud with full bore printing presses supporting TBTF banks - a veritable short term window dressing of a clearly long term problem.

Should a double dip occur I think the weight of all his past sins will land right on him and his party. All the "Well he's fixing the economy" wait-and-sees will now realize the full extent of his lack of initiative.

Only the complete ham handed idiocy of the Republicans is obstructing what could potentially have been a significant party shift...but there's still time for them to figure out what to do.

I have the luxury of watching the US political scene from a safe distance, and once again readily acknowledge that all of you know a hell of lot more about it than I do.

What I have observed, and this is pretty common to politicians everywhere, is that when all the usual measures [like giving away money] don't reverse falling polls first a seige mentality and then a sense of desperation often sets in. Up here it happens in the Prime Minister's Office, which I suspect is equivalent to Obama's inner circle in the White House.

The pattern is typically the same everywhere...and I sense it's now unfolding in D.C., which is what prompted my first post with its tone of warning:

• increase control of the information flow, muzzle anyone that is in any way tempted to go off-message [Volcker comes to mind];
• manipulate the data in increasingly overt and absurd ways, all the while denying having done so [they will do anything to keep U3 below double-digits];
• in the face of data that simply cannot be manipulated without losing all credibility, bring out the Generals to deny its validity;
• set up a network of lightening rods to protect the powerful [expect to see more of Press Secretary Gibbs, other White House staffers, and even Veep Biden taking the strikes as they try to counter any negative economic news, while Summers disappears from view and Obama becomes less prominent on that front...notice, for example, who stick-handled the "jobs created/saved" fiasco in front of the cameras this past week];
• fire the coach [dump at least one key senior advisor from the inner circle as a scapegoat] and with great public fanfare introduce the replacement [in Canada this is usually preceded by a Cabinet shuffle];
• in a last ditch effort to turn the situation around roll out a hastily-prepared, ill-conceived dramatic new policy initiative that has tremendous immediate populist appeal

It's that last bullet that concerns me. Another stimulus package won't do it. Perhaps something dramatic on the housing front?

[jpatter666]

Re: Presidential Starts

Well, I live in the Washington area, and while I work in the IT industry, many friends work in the political grindmills.

You have a lot more experience regarding the political scene in the USA than I do, so I am loathe to disagree. In "normal" circumstances I would agree with you whole-heartedly, since voters everywhere including the Anglophone part of my country behave about the same [one week attention span; only some Francophones take our politics seriously].

I'd agree that the majority probably don't pay much attention -- but they're starting because they are *finally* starting to get seriously worried. About 30% I'd guess are rabid party members (one way or the other) and a serious problem is the with the splintering of the news outlets and the internet, they are able to stay within their "bubble" of belief. I see this of both my conservative and liberal friends.

One of my more liberal friends commented to me that Obama was going to be judged on health care. A cousin working for a Republican congressman thinks there are some decent elements in the party, but the upper levels have been "captured" and no one know how to break the hold.

I'm reminded of the following:

Science Fiction god Robert Heinlien called this problem "Bread and Circuses" - a reference to Roman Emperors providing food and entertainment to distract the masses. In "To Sail Beyond The Sunset" the character Lazarus Long discusses this problem:

"A perfect democracy, a 'warm body' democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally has no internal feedback for self correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens...which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it...which for the majority translates as 'Bread and Circuses'

"Bread and Circuses is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader--the barbarians enter Rome."

But these are far from "normal" circumstances and I truly doubt that the Dems can ignore the poll trends until the last four weeks. If unemployment keeps rising, houses keep being foreclosed upon, companies keep going bankrupt, the voters think the bankers are continuing to be protected, and the impression persists that the "President of Change" hasn't actually accomplished much of anything, I doubt they'll be able to pull it out of the fire by promising more Hope.

This is Obama's Recession now. And so far nothing they have done seems to be working...

The elections in Virginia (my state) this week will be looked upon as an initial referendum on Obama.

[Master Shake]

Re: Presidential Starts

But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader--the barbarians enter Rome."

Something I've thought for years: the extension of the franchise is ultimately destructive to the nation for precisely the reason that Heinlein states.

"Taxation without representation" was a rallying cry for the Founders.

Perhaps the converse "representation without taxation" needs to be addressed, although I don't think that toothpaste can be put back into the tube. Especially with the "disproportionate impact" such a policy would have on certain non-productive (economically productive, that is. In terms of fertility, they more than make up for their lack of economic contribution. Note: Watch the movie "Idiocracy) ethnic groups.

[Raz]

Re: Presidential Starts

... In "To Sail Beyond The Sunset" the character Lazarus Long discusses this problem:

"A perfect democracy, a 'warm body' democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally has no internal feedback for self correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens...which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it...which for the majority translates as 'Bread and Circuses'

"Bread and Circuses is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader--the barbarians enter Rome."

Since I attained the age of twenty-one years I have never been able to understand why Liberals/Leftists cannot understand this manifest and timeless truth.

I no longer believe that they cannot see it; I believe that they will not see it.

[c1ue]

Re: Presidential Starts

Science Fiction god Robert Heinlien called this problem "Bread and Circuses" - a reference to Roman Emperors providing food and entertainment to distract the masses. In "To Sail Beyond The Sunset" the character Lazarus Long discusses this problem:

I don't disagree with Heinlein's view, but the present situation is very different than what Heinlein warned about.

Bread and Circuses refers to distracting the masses from threatening existing power, but what we have now is a corruption of the electoral system - specifically a cancer of the 'controlling elements' of American society.

I speak not just of government, but of media, social circles, etc etc.

What is occurring now is very much a junta-like takeover of American society - only they're doing it with dollars instead of bullets.

The parallels between what is happening now and the Medici takeover of Florence are interesting. Other Italian city states were taken over by the condottiere (military), Florence was 'deep captured' by bankers.

Now that's a bunch of bloody pirates for you...

[we_are_toast]

Re: Presidential Starts

I'd also add that the party line of 'Green Shoots' was a very stupid move.

By goosing the economy and running the PR full steam on 'Green Shoots' - now a full break with the Bush economy has been achieved.

While I agree that blaming Bush is not a long term solution - on the other hand it absolutely could have been milked for a longer period.

What Obama has done is to try and nip this recession in the bud with full bore printing presses supporting TBTF banks - a veritable short term window dressing of a clearly long term problem.

Should a double dip occur I think the weight of all his past sins will land right on him and his party. All the "Well he's fixing the economy" wait-and-sees will now realize the full extent of his lack of initiative.

Only the complete ham handed idiocy of the Republicans is obstructing what could potentially have been a significant party shift...but there's still time for them to figure out what to do.

I mostly agree with this. But it hasn't been the administration claiming the "green shoots" it's been the financial press. Every comment I've seen from upper administration officials has been highly qualified with, our problems are big and it's going to take a long time to solve them.

Elections are determined by swing voters, not people reading the financial press or iTulip. But I'm not sure how big the false hope has become. You are exactly right about the idiocy of the Republicans snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I fully expect the Dems to run against Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck, and that will be very persuasive. It won't be, who is the best candidate, it'll be who's the worse.

The polls also show the public blames Bush and the Repubs for the mess we're in, so a big part of the campaign won't be "stay the course", it'll be, do you want to go back to what got us here.

Originally Posted by GRG55
But these are far from "normal" circumstances and I truly doubt that the Dems can ignore the poll trends until the last four weeks. If unemployment keeps rising, houses keep being foreclosed upon, companies keep going bankrupt, the voters think the bankers are continuing to be protected, and the impression persists that the "President of Change" hasn't actually accomplished much of anything, I doubt they'll be able to pull it out of the fire by promising more Hope.

This is Obama's Recession now. And so far nothing they have done seems to be working...

I agree that these are far from normal times, but I don't think the general public sees this. We at iTulip realize it, but most people think this is just an exceptionally deep recession and house prices, and jobs, and their 401k's will all be back to normal in a few years. I don't agree it's Obama's recession now. As I stated above, the polls still say it's Bush's recession and the Great Depression never became FDR's depression. I still hold out hope that Obama will realize that what Summers and Geithner have been doing isn't working and we'll get a clean sweep early next year.

Most polls also show that the south is going back to the way it was, but the west is still shifting toward Dems. If I had to bet, I'd guess the Dems will lose about the normal amount of seats in the midterms, and if Obama ends up running against Palin, or Gingrich, or Chenny, I'd put my money on Obama.

Babbitd
Normal in what way?

Here's what I was looking at:


Put Truman and Ford in the mix and it looks a little different. Obama's numbers have been pretty stable around that 53% mark for several months so I think he's near a core support area.

jpatter666
The elections in Virginia (my state) this week will be looked upon as an initial referendum on Obama.

I don't think so. Virginia has always been a conservative state and I think it'll revert back to it's typical ways. I'm much more interested in the NY-23 race where a candidate from the conservative party could beat out a Rep. That would be an indicator that the party is going to drive out even more of their moderates and move even further to the right. The Dems may not be able to pick up the Rep. moderates, but the moderates might just sit out several elections.

The Dems have a long history of shooting themselves in the foot so I don't want to underestimate this well developed skill.

Update: Shortly after posting this, the Republican candidate in NY-23 dropped out of the race to prevent an embarrassing defeat for the party. Here's how I've seen the situation described by one blogger;

The Republican establishment that at least pretended to speak to all Americans is deeply, deeply wounded, and a wild-eyed, exclusionist, birther religio-beast is taking its place.

[Master Shake]

Re: Presidential Starts

Since I attained the age of twenty-one years I have never been able to understand why Liberals/Leftists cannot understand this manifest and timeless truth.

I no longer believe that they cannot see it; I believe that they will not see it.

de Tocqueville called this long ago as well.

[c1ue]

Re: Presidential Starts

I mostly agree with this. But it hasn't been the administration claiming the "green shoots" it's been the financial press. Every comment I've seen from upper administration officials has been highly qualified with, our problems are big and it's going to take a long time to solve them.

While a full reading of Obama administration utterances is consistent with what you say, on the other hand every single utterance spoke first about recovery and only later (in the fine print so to speak) talked about qualifications.

This is simply a cowardly way of trying to have your cake and eat it too.

But the majority of people who only heard the first part, are only going to see the failure of the administration should the worm turn.

Very few are going to recall the 'fine print'.

Its like a boxer saying "I'm going to kick my opponent's a**. Assuming I am able to keep with my plan of circling him while jabbing, also assuming no partisanship from the judges and a good refereed fight."

No one is going to remember anything but the first sentence.

[jbm3996]

Re: Presidential Starts

The above posts all have very valid points and I see truths in virtually everything that is being discussed. This website, in particular, seems to attract a great number of highly intelligent, well read, and ethical members. The main issue, IMHO, is that there are alot of people discussing things and philosophising, but not alot of action regarding solutions.
Don't get me wrong, I am glad to see the rhetoric balooning, because I am shocked at the numbers of people who don't think they have to take time away from their self-centric mass-media driven lives to really care about the current crisis because they believe ... "it will all just be fine"... (translation - someone else will clean up the mess and I really don't have to be a truly responsible citizen, besides I have all I can handle with making sure its all about me).
And I am not above rebuke on this either ... and, therefore, am having sleepless nights regarding how I can get off my all-too-comfortable backside and replace my blogging fingers with desperately needed action ...
any comments?

[cjppjc]

Re: Presidential Starts

The above posts all have very valid points and I see truths in virtually everything that is being discussed. This website, in particular, seems to attract a great number of highly intelligent, well read, and ethical members. The main issue, IMHO, is that there are alot of people discussing things and philosophising, but not alot of action regarding solutions.
Don't get me wrong, I am glad to see the rhetoric balooning, because I am shocked at the numbers of people who don't think they have to take time away from their self-centric mass-media driven lives to really care about the current crisis because they believe ... "it will all just be fine"... (translation - someone else will clean up the mess and I really don't have to be a truly responsible citizen, besides I have all I can handle with making sure its all about me).
And I am not above rebuke on this either ... and, therefore, am having sleepless nights regarding how I can get off my all-too-comfortable backside and replace my blogging fingers with desperately needed action ...
any comments?

No one is above rebuke on this matter. Sure everyone "wishes" to do something, but what? Maybe a small step would be to become involved in local politics. School board? Volunteer at a soup kitchen? These things take my time. And while I enjoy thinking about the good that will come, it is easy the next day to forget, or make excuses. I want to already be on the way.


Begin - to begin is half the work, let half still remain; again begin this, and thou wilt have finished.

Marcus Aurelius