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  • Presidential Starts

    From the Bespoke Investment Group, by way of Seeking Alpha.

    While there are any number of polls that are taken to measure public opinion of a specific event or policy, for investors, the ultimate gauge of opinion on anything is the performance of the market. With that in mind, there has been a lot of talk regarding the performance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) so far during President Obama's term. Upon his election, many in the media and on Obama's staff said that his election would bring about a new sense of hope in the American psyche, much in the same way that other democratic heavyweights such as FDR and JFK improved sentiment in America. However, based (rightly or wrongly) on the stock market's return so far, this new sense of hope has yet to bear out.

    From the time President Obama was elected to his inauguration, the DJIA put in its worst performance over all election to inauguration periods since 1900, with a decline of 17.4%. And on the day President Obama was sworn in, the DJIA put in its worst ever inauguration day performance with a decline of 4%. Since then, things haven't gotten much better. Not including the inauguration day decline, the DJIA has dropped an additional 14.92% since President Obama was sworn in. Over the last two weeks, these declines have intensified with losses in ten out of the last twelve trading days.

    Critics of President Obama have used these statistics as ammunition against his policies, while his supporters have laid the blame on the issues that he inherited. Both the critics and supporters of the President have valid arguments. With the passage of time, however, President Obama's ownership of how the market unfolds (good or bad) becomes less debatable, and as it stands now, he is not off to a good start. Through yesterday's close, the DJIA's performance during President Obama's first 41 days in office is the worst of any President since at least 1900.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1238...arts-1900-2009
    Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. -Groucho

  • #2
    Re: Presidential Starts

    Originally posted by Master Shake View Post
    With the passage of time, however, President Obama's ownership of how the market unfolds (good or bad) becomes less debatable, and as it stands now, he is not off to a good start.
    I must have misread this the first time around. Nothing to disagree with here.
    Last edited by Slimprofits; March 04, 2009, 02:14 AM. Reason: total re-write

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Presidential Starts

      Yeah... it's not like anyone predicted in 2008 stocks would finish the year below 6000 or anything. I mean, what else could possibly explain such a decline?!

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Presidential Starts

        We'll there are a few errors we can lay at the feet of President Obama.

        Exhibit 1: Mr Tim Geithner - Mr Geithners speech about the plan to deal with the Bad banks and then provide no detail - no plan - did seem to provide an excuse for downward pressure on the market.
        Geithner( the $1,000,0000 Mortgage plus $400K Heloc) is clearly not the best choice for this challenging position - if anyone can offer a shred of evidence that I'm, wrong please offer it - I'm looking for a glimer of hope.

        Exhibit 2: The Stimulis Plan - more time should have gone into crafting the plan - perhaps forcing more Republicans to sign on - not enough is going to build infrastructure that generates future cash flow or improves the economy for society. Too bad site development for Nuclear Power Plants weren't thrown into the stimulus plan - Politics is Politics.

        Exhibit 3: President Obama - talking up the Markets today - it came across a bit sophmoric - especially because the President is an excellent Presenter - so, how much money did he make managing his money or other peoples money - that's right he never actually did any thing related to finance/economics/accounting. His Money comes from forcing Banks to lend more Sub Prime Loans to Inner City citizens and as a Politician.

        I'll be honest I didn't vote for McCain or Obama. In another 24 months President Obama will have ownership crisis that's just how politics works. I hope things are better than any of us expect.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Presidential Starts

          A least he put things back on budget where they belong. The GOP looks stupid arguing the deficit. If the Bush budgets had the war in them. Ugh. Opponents should be honest and use that number when comparing deficits. Not that that it matters. You know 10 trillion, 13 trillion, 15 trillion the total debt is so hugh.
          This budget has some growth numbers that are crazy. So 20 trillion, 25 trillion.......:eek:

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Presidential Starts

            Originally posted by Master Shake View Post
            From the Bespoke Investment Group, by way of Seeking Alpha.

            While there are any number of polls that are taken to measure public opinion of a specific event or policy, for investors, the ultimate gauge of opinion on anything is the performance of the market. With that in mind, there has been a lot of talk regarding the performance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) so far during President Obama's term. Upon his election, many in the media and on Obama's staff said that his election would bring about a new sense of hope in the American psyche, much in the same way that other democratic heavyweights such as FDR and JFK improved sentiment in America. However, based (rightly or wrongly) on the stock market's return so far, this new sense of hope has yet to bear out.

            From the time President Obama was elected to his inauguration, the DJIA put in its worst performance over all election to inauguration periods since 1900, with a decline of 17.4%. And on the day President Obama was sworn in, the DJIA put in its worst ever inauguration day performance with a decline of 4%. Since then, things haven't gotten much better. Not including the inauguration day decline, the DJIA has dropped an additional 14.92% since President Obama was sworn in. Over the last two weeks, these declines have intensified with losses in ten out of the last twelve trading days.

            Critics of President Obama have used these statistics as ammunition against his policies, while his supporters have laid the blame on the issues that he inherited. Both the critics and supporters of the President have valid arguments. With the passage of time, however, President Obama's ownership of how the market unfolds (good or bad) becomes less debatable, and as it stands now, he is not off to a good start. Through yesterday's close, the DJIA's performance during President Obama's first 41 days in office is the worst of any President since at least 1900.

            http://seekingalpha.com/article/1238...arts-1900-2009
            The only thing he has done is attack wealth and producers.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Presidential Starts

              Agree that him touting stocks today was beyond stupid. Think that might get replayed a few times if we're at 3400?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Presidential Starts

                Originally posted by fightthepower View Post
                The only thing he has done is attack wealth and producers.
                How has he done that?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Presidential Starts

                  Tax & Spend. Don't you read the news?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Presidential Starts

                    Originally posted by doom&gloom View Post
                    Tax & Spend. Don't you read the news?
                    As opposed to the Republican [sic] "Hyperinflate and Spend"?
                    Every interest bearing loan is mathematically impossible to pay back.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Presidential Starts

                      dood, the hyperinflation is a comin' -- Obama makes Reagan look like a
                      miser by comparison. He makes Bush look like a genuine saver as well.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Presidential Starts

                        Originally posted by WDCRob View Post
                        Agree that him touting stocks today was beyond stupid. Think that might get replayed a few times if we're at 3400?

                        Doesn't look like the rising stock market is producing any benefits for the White House. I get the feeling we should start expecting "Real Change" any time now...:p

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Presidential Starts

                          Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                          Doesn't look like the rising stock market is producing any benefits for the White House. I get the feeling we should start expecting "Real Change" any time now...:p]
                          I think for balance of bias, it's best to look at Rasmussen and Gallup together.

                          Rasmussen: Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove.

                          Gallup:

                          Rasmussen: Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats approve while 81% of Republicans disapprove. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 43% offer a positive review and 57% say the opposite.

                          Gallup:

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Presidential Starts

                            Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                            I think for balance of bias, it's best to look at Rasmussen and Gallup together.

                            Rasmussen: Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove.

                            Gallup:

                            Rasmussen: Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats approve while 81% of Republicans disapprove. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 43% offer a positive review and 57% say the opposite.

                            Gallup:
                            All these charts seem to be showing similar trends to me. And those trends spell trouble for the Dems going into the mid-terms. Even if they get a health care bill passed, "Main Street" America isn't going to notice anything different in their lives the next day.

                            When SNL starts doing skits about a "do-nothing" President who campaigned on "Change" I just can't imagine Rahm and the gang sitting around lamenting...they are going to do something [with populist appeal]...
                            Last edited by GRG55; October 30, 2009, 01:53 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Presidential Starts

                              Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                              Rasmussen: Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats approve while 81% of Republicans disapprove.
                              So much for bringing the country together...:rolleyes:

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