Collapse imminent?

[Tulpen]

Just look at the 20 year treasuries right now.
Incredible!

[ricket]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Yeah, Ive been watching the bond prices fall about 4% every day. Does this mean the bond market is starting to price in deflation?

[Tulpen]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Just look at the 20 year treasuries right now.
Incredible!

To the sky.

As Faber says: the last bubble to collapse.

[icm63]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Sorry I thought the collapse would have been interest rates rising as USA spending has been held up by artificial means by Asian central banks ( who start buying USA treasuries after the Asian crisis of 1996/8) supporting USA consumerism.

Sure this is a flight to safe money, at the moment, but the bailout bill just may see this blow off of treasuries reverse very badley.

More here : http://www.safehaven.com/article-12004.htm

But his last comments maybe incorrect...

Lastly, one caveat: higher yields will likely be associated with higer stock prices as money comes out of bonds and flows into stocks. I don't expect a trend change anytime soon (in yields), and I am not expecting higher stock prices to lead to a new bull market.

It should be more like this ...

Lastly, one caveat: higher yields will likely be associated with higer stock prices as money comes out of bonds and flows OUTSIDE THE USA TO COUNTRIES THAT CAN HOLD VALUE FOR CASH.

As USA has its "zero rate hell" moment or "Argentina moment"

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Collapse imminent?

COUNTRIES THAT CAN HOLD VALUE FOR CASH.

What countries do you recommend? Somewhere in the next galaxy?

[icm63]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Good response...

NOT: Iceland, Zimbabwe, Switzerland ( ie massive derivative risk)

Maybe: Australia, Japan, Germany,

If not cash then hard rocks or ground with hard rocks in it.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Sorry...I still don't get the "Australia" part in all this! Why Australia? Before you answer check out both our domestic debt and especially our foreign debt situation.
I'm not just being argumentative here. I just see Aus as a disaster waiting to happen. Yet everyone keeps saying it is this great place to invest. I keep wondering what i am missing.
The A$ has fallen some 35% against the US and 45% against the Yen for good reason IMO. I'd better qualify that and say I think the USD is a disaster waiting to happen as well. Yet i'd say given your population, industrial base, and general industrial structure the US is better able to rebuild out of this mess than is Aus.

[grizam303]

Re: Collapse imminent?

I'd add Canada to that list with its mining and oil, though they may be overvalued like most everything else right now...

[tastymannatees]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Nobody seems immune from any of these toxic financial's. The closer you look at any currency or the country that backs it the less glitter it has, every nook and cranny of the financial spectrum seems contaminated.

I am beginning to think there is no safe haven in any currency, the dollar crashes they all crash. The stock markets and commodities crash, treasuries crash

All the gyrations trading in and out commodities, stocks, bonds, treasuries may be all for naught. It all goes to near zero at once

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Nobody seems immune from any of these toxic financial's.

Yeah - we tied all the worlds currencies and economies together, then blew them up. Politics by another means, now that World Wars have become too dangerous to attempt.

I'm focused on (1) staying healthy, (2) getting to know my neighbors, and (3) minimizing my economic needs.

[kartius919]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Only the Fed is buying the long bonds. They will keep buying until they pounded the rates to 0%. At that point they will start, if they have not already, buying US equities. The last step is to give consumers money through Congress. Helicopter Ben has taken off for quite some time.

I still see debt deflation for the near term future. If you start seeing the Obama bonds being issued, then I would panic towards gold and hard assets.

[grapejelly]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Only the Fed is buying the long bonds. They will keep buying until they pounded the rates to 0%. At that point they will start, if they have not already, buying US equities. The last step is to give consumers money through Congress. Helicopter Ben has taken off for quite some time.

I still see debt deflation for the near term future. If you start seeing the Obama bonds being issued, then I would panic towards gold and hard assets.

how do you know only the Fed is buying long bonds?

[Pericles]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Sorry...I still don't get the "Australia" part in all this! Why Australia? Before you answer check out both our domestic debt and especially our foreign debt situation.
I'm not just being argumentative here. I just see Aus as a disaster waiting to happen. Yet everyone keeps saying it is this great place to invest. I keep wondering what i am missing.
The A$ has fallen some 35% against the US and 45% against the Yen for good reason IMO. I'd better qualify that and say I think the USD is a disaster waiting to happen as well. Yet i'd say given your population, industrial base, and general industrial structure the US is better able to rebuild out of this mess than is Aus.

I cannot agree more with Outback Oracle. Steve Keen (who has had a few article here historically) has a great blog with many charts comparing the US and Australia, and among others, personal levels of debt have grown in similar fashion here. ( http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs ). Australia is living in denial, and while Rudd's Santa fund may give limited support to holiday sales, reality, when it arrives, will not be pretty.

[GRG55]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Yeah - we tied all the worlds currencies and economies together, then blew them up. Politics by another means, now that World Wars have become too dangerous to attempt.

I'm focused on (1) staying healthy, (2) getting to know my neighbors, and (3) minimizing my economic needs.

PC: sound advice for all of us under any economic circumstances. Thnks.

[marsien59]

Re: Collapse imminent?

Yeah - we tied all the worlds currencies and economies together, then blew them up. Politics by another means, now that World Wars have become too dangerous to attempt.

I'm focused on (1) staying healthy, (2) getting to know my neighbors, and (3) minimizing my economic needs.

Thks for the advice, and if those who have too munch free time, reflect on "Sutra of the heart" "Body is nothing more than emptiness, emptiness is nothing more than body. The body is exactly empty, and emptiness is exactly body. The other four aspects of human existence -- feeling, thought, will, and consciousness -- are likewise nothing more than emptiness, and emptiness nothing more than they. http://webspace.ship.edu/cgboer/heartsutra.html or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heart_Sutra Wisdom to all of iTuliper's Yvan F