consumer isn't dead yet

[goadam1]

Thoughts?

WASHINGTON, Nov 30, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Though the holiday season is far from over, retailers across the country are breathing a collective sigh of relief after shoppers headed to stores and websites in droves over the weekend. According to the National Retail Federation's 2008 Black Friday Weekend survey, conducted by BIGresearch, more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 147 million shoppers last year.*
Shoppers spent an average of $372.57 this weekend*, up 7.2 percent over last year's $347.55. Total spending reached an estimated $41.0 billion.
"Pent-up demand on electronics and clothing, plus unparalleled bargains on this season's hottest items helped drive shopping all weekend," said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. "Holiday sales are not expected to continue at this brisk pace, but it is encouraging that Americans seem excited to go shopping again."

[RebbePete]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

The important question for the economy: how much money did retailers really make on it all? As the old joke goes, "They lost a dollar on every sale but made it up on volume."

[goadam1]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

I would think that the margins were terrible. But the name of the game right now is survival and cash flow is more important than net in this quarter.

When I heard about the walmart stampede, all I could think is what will it look like when this kind of behavior is about food.

[FRED]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

I would think that the margins were terrible. But the name of the game right now is survival and cash flow is more important than net in this quarter.

When I heard about the walmart stampede, all I could think is what will it look like when this kind of behavior is about food.

Crank the gasoline price to 2! Crank interest rates to zero! We'll get some airspeed yet goddammit!

[hoodoo]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

I call BS - most of the major media outlets are trying to keep an upbeat tone but offering caveats and hedges for every positive statement.

Remember the fancifully upbeat predictions of David Lereah as the shrapnel of the housing bubble had already turned most realtors into mincemeat? I don't put any stock into the reporting of industry health by the trade associations of those industries.

Also, I'd double down on the bet that the zero margin sales of this holiday season are meant to clear out stock before shuttering the doors in mid January.

Hoo

Thoughts?

WASHINGTON, Nov 30, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Though the holiday season is far from over, retailers across the country are breathing a collective sigh of relief after shoppers headed to stores and websites in droves over the weekend. According to the National Retail Federation's 2008 Black Friday Weekend survey, conducted by BIGresearch, more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 147 million shoppers last year.*
Shoppers spent an average of $372.57 this weekend*, up 7.2 percent over last year's $347.55. Total spending reached an estimated $41.0 billion.
"Pent-up demand on electronics and clothing, plus unparalleled bargains on this season's hottest items helped drive shopping all weekend," said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. "Holiday sales are not expected to continue at this brisk pace, but it is encouraging that Americans seem excited to go shopping again."

[we_are_toast]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

I call BS - most of the major media outlets are trying to keep an upbeat tone but offering caveats and hedges for every positive statement.

Remember the fancifully upbeat predictions of David Lereah as the shrapnel of the housing bubble had already turned most realtors into mincemeat? I don't put any stock into the reporting of industry health by the trade associations of those industries.

Also, I'd double down on the bet that the zero margin sales of this holiday season are meant to clear out stock before shuttering the doors in mid January.

Hoo

It seems like this happens quite a bit. Black Friday is always reported as being terrific, than in January we get adjustments and the whole season turns out not to be as good as they thought.

Retail sales were down the last couple of months so consumers may have been saving up. They also may have figured all the good bargains were going to be on Friday. My guess is the rest of the season will be down.

On the other hand; it could mean the American public still doesn't get it and maybe never will. This could mean a short term cushion for the economy. As their neighbors go bankrupt they pay no attention and keep using up their credit until they go under also. It could slow the remainder of the crash but extend the length of the depression.

[Wild Style]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

I think once credit card lines start to dry up, John Q public will "get it", real fast.

[Chomsky]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

I think once credit card lines start to dry up, John Q public will "get it", real fast.

Right, see:

http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6702

[CanuckinTX]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

My guess is that $372 went farther than last years $345 for the consumer, so in other words, people FINISHED a lot more of their shopping last weekend and the rest of the season is going to be all downhill.

[Slimprofits]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

Thoughts?

WASHINGTON, Nov 30, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Though the holiday season is far from over, retailers across the country are breathing a collective sigh of relief after shoppers headed to stores and websites in droves over the weekend. According to the National Retail Federation's 2008 Black Friday Weekend survey, conducted by BIGresearch, more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 147 million shoppers last year.*
Shoppers spent an average of $372.57 this weekend*, up 7.2 percent over last year's $347.55. Total spending reached an estimated $41.0 billion.
"Pent-up demand on electronics and clothing, plus unparalleled bargains on this season's hottest items helped drive shopping all weekend," said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. "Holiday sales are not expected to continue at this brisk pace, but it is encouraging that Americans seem excited to go shopping again."

I think the explanation is obvious. More people went out searching for bargains and crazy discounts and they'll be buying much less later on than they have in previous years.

[grizam303]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

I think the explanation is obvious. More people went out searching for bargains and crazy discounts and they'll be buying much less later on than they have in previous years.

An anecdote to support your claim: I did not shop last BF. I did shop this year. Total spent = $34. I doubt either items I bought gave the retailer much, if any, margin.

[goadam1]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

I bought pillows, because I needed new pillows.

The Times had an article about a couple trying to live with in their means. They made a budget for spending. Last week they just had to buy a turkey fryer at costco. People will spend until the very end. It is a disease.

[Slimprofits]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

Total estimated spending over the 'Black Friday' weekend plummeted 20 percent, according to figures from an industry survey. Total spending reached an estimated $41 billion, compared with $51 billion last year.

The decline in sales came despite a healthy increase in the number of people getting their shopping done early. More than 172 million shoppers visited stores and Web sites over retailers' busiest weekend of the year, up from 147 million shoppers last year...

In a sign that the pace will slow, the survey found 39 percent of shoppers said they had finished their holiday shopping, up from 36 percent at this point in the season last year.

source: Traffic World

and this was printed in The New York Times:

The bargains that drove shoppers to stores were so stunning, analysts said that retailers — already suffering from double-digit sales declines the last two months — would probably see their profits erode even further.

Also, after shoppers flooded stores on Friday, foot traffic trailed off significantly on Saturday and Sunday.

[..]

“You’re looking at discounts of 50 to 70 percent off,” said Matthew Katz, managing director in the retail practice of Alix Partners, an advisory and restructuring firm. “You have to sell two to three times as much to break even.”

Chains as varied as Target and Neiman Marcus offered goods at some of their lowest prices ever.

“There is a sense of desperation among retailers,” said Hana Ben-Shabat, a partner in A. T. Kearney’s retail practice, “because everybody knows consumers are very stretched.”

As Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for the NPD Group, put it: “This weekend was like having a huge party and just hoping anybody shows up.”

[..]

Despite the industry surveys’ findings, many consumers and longtime retailing analysts attested to lighter crowds.

“There was definitely more elbow room,” said John D. Morris, a Wachovia analyst whose retail team fanned out at malls across the country on Friday.

Mr. Cohen of the NPD Group said that on Friday foot traffic at stores was down 11 percent and the shopping bag count was down 24 percent compared with last year.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

I bought pillows, because I needed new pillows.

The Times had an article about a couple trying to live with in their means. They made a budget for spending. Last week they just had to buy a turkey fryer at costco. People will spend until the very end. It is a disease.

Hey I almost bought that turkey fryer too! It's a sweet deal but then I realized 'how often would I really use this thing?' and thankfully a cooler head prevailed (ie. the wife).

[GRG55]

Re: consumer isn't dead yet

Crank the gasoline price to 2! Crank interest rates to zero! We'll get some airspeed yet goddammit!

Airspeed is good. But those ZIRP peaks are looking awful close. Seems what we really need is more altitude.

As that old pilot's saying reminds, there's nothing more useless than runway behind you, or air above you. ;)