Peek Diesel?

[GRG55]

Re: Peek Diesel?

No SU?

Go back and re-read my posts about when to buy Suncor.

I'll be careful on EM. Thailand and Mexico are good but valuation is high. Russia and Turkey are risky due to politics. India and China have got structural issues with the financial sector and property bubble.

China, in addition, has big problem with demographics. A lot of the Chinese consumption is being propped up by Chinese baby boomers in their 60s. Parents giving money to their single childs to buy cars and housing - this is how Beijing and Shanghai become the most expensive property markets in their world relative to income. But I can foresee that in less than 10 years, Chinese baby boomers will become net sellers of properties as they age because China doesn't have a social safety net for their the elderly.

China is not an EM. At least not in my portfolio it isn't.

[touchring]

Re: Peek Diesel?

Go back and re-read my posts about when to buy Suncor.

Do you mean this 2013 post?

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...445#post257445

China is not an EM. At least not in my portfolio it isn't.

China is an EM even if they pretend not to be one.

[GRG55]

Re: Peek Diesel?

Do you mean this 2013 post?

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...445#post257445

...

Yes, that's my take on Suncor and it has not changed. Whenever it falls below CAN $28 on the Toronto exchange (or whatever the US equivalent is on the NYSE) its a buy. Whenever it goes above CAN $40 its time to start selling.

China is an EM even if they pretend not to be one.

Not as an investment thesis it isn't.

[jpatter666]

Re: Peek Diesel?

Using the GRG55 metric, Suncor needs to go below $20 to be a buy. Although Canadian-USD rates looked pretty skewed to the US at the moment. Not sure how much leeway to give that.

Deep rig plays (RIG, NE) act like they are nearly priced for bankruptcy. SLB lower than in 2009. Even XOM which is supposed to be the gold-plated standard is flirting with 10-year lows.

[touchring]

Re: Peek Diesel?

Using the GRG55 metric, Suncor needs to go below $20 to be a buy. Although Canadian-USD rates looked pretty skewed to the US at the moment. Not sure how much leeway to give that.

Deep rig plays (RIG, NE) act like they are nearly priced for bankruptcy. SLB lower than in 2009. Even XOM which is supposed to be the gold-plated standard is flirting with 10-year lows.

At the moment, only looking at SU - cause I'm betting that middle east will have another flare up - either saudi or iran will do it just to raise oil prices. Only matter of time.

I might buy more SU if it drops to $20. In comparison, I won't buy Apple even if it drops to $100. My iPhone is behaving eratically.

[GRG55]

Re: Peek Diesel?

At the moment, only looking at SU - cause I'm betting that middle east will have another flare up - either saudi or iran will do it just to raise oil prices. Only matter of time.

I might buy more SU if it drops to $20. In comparison, I won't buy Apple even if it drops to $100. My iPhone is behaving eratically.

JP666 is correct.

Dig deeper into the current strategies of COP and XOM, as examples. I think I mentioned XOM earlier in this thread. You may find it interesting.

[GRG55]

Re: Peek Diesel?

Using the GRG55 metric, Suncor needs to go below $20 to be a buy. Although Canadian-USD rates looked pretty skewed to the US at the moment. Not sure how much leeway to give that.

Deep rig plays (RIG, NE) act like they are nearly priced for bankruptcy. SLB lower than in 2009. Even XOM which is supposed to be the gold-plated standard is flirting with 10-year lows.

I would ignore the US$/CAN$ exchange in this instance and just track the CAN$ price of SU on Toronto. Although its products are priced (or referenced) in US$, the bulk of SU's operating costs and overheads are incurred in CAN$. It is still well above my buy threshold trigger, but I have every expectation patience will be rewarded in due course.

In the meantime I agree with you. XOM and some others look much more compelling value plays than SU at the moment.

[Mega]

Re: Peek Diesel?

Wot are your thoughts on the marine bunker oil ban in 2020?
Mike

[touchring]

Re: Peek Diesel?

JP666 is correct.

Dig deeper into the current strategies of COP and XOM, as examples. I think I mentioned XOM earlier in this thread. You may find it interesting.

Thanks. I'll take a look again.

The property bubble in Canada is going to unravel. A 60% collapse in prices cannot be ruled out and this will bankrupt banks. I don't know how the Canadians think they can continue just living off the property bubble. Let's see what happens next.

[GRG55]

Re: Peek Diesel?

Thanks. I'll take a look again.

The property bubble in Canada is going to unravel. A 60% collapse in prices cannot be ruled out and this will bankrupt banks. I don't know how the Canadians think they can continue just living off the property bubble. Let's see what happens next.

Property is not going to impact the Canadian banks in any big way. Those credit risks are almost entirely laid off on the mortgage security holders such as the pension funds, and the taxpayer backed mortgage insurer, CMHC.

The banks are going to get hit with corporate credit defaults. Those they are holding to too high a degree on their own balance sheets. The statistics are already showing the number of corporate defaults, and the average size/amounts are both increasing. And so far the interest rate rises in Canada are still lagging behind the Fed increases.

Personally, I think Canada is one wee recession away from an economic catastrophe for the many overleveraged families and businesses. After three attempts the Loonie fell decisively below 75 cents US just before Christmas. At the beginning of this decade it was above par. That's just one indicator things below the waterline are turbulent.

[santafe2]

Re: Peek Diesel?

Property is not going to impact the Canadian banks in any big way. Those credit risks are almost entirely laid off on the mortgage security holders such as the pension funds, and the taxpayer backed mortgage insurer, CMHC.

I think most Canadian mortgages are full recourse, (like student loans in the US). If I'm correct, that will make them very difficult to discharge, if/when Canadian housing prices move downward. The other issue could be the standard 5 year fixed rate loan. If interest rates rise substantially, borrowers may find themselves between a rock and a hard place. A home for which they cannot afford the payment and one that is underwater and difficult to sell. We, of course, have been talking about this for nearly a decade and it hasn't happened.

[jpatter666]

Re: Peek Diesel?

I would ignore the US$/CAN$ exchange in this instance and just track the CAN$ price of SU on Toronto. Although its products are priced (or referenced) in US$, the bulk of SU's operating costs and overheads are incurred in CAN$. It is still well above my buy threshold trigger, but I have every expectation patience will be rewarded in due course.

In the meantime I agree with you. XOM and some others look much more compelling value plays than SU at the moment.

I agree.

Any favorite between NE or RIG?
SLB vs HAL?