The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

[touchring]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Pardon me, but I found your post incoherent - I don't follow the connection from an "Asian/China property market" (which by the way the Government of British Columbia's own data has now conclusively refuted) to "deep $#!£" to Donald Trump & wage inflation.

No government will admit this, just think of the amount of taxes and stamp duties earned each time a property is flipped in Vancouver. It's as lucrative as operating a casino and unlike a casino, there are no operating costs or staff to maintain.

As for the "Trump connection", I'd wait till the end of the year before commenting further.

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

The Vancouver property market is basically the Asian/China property market.

Here's how I see it, correct me if I'm wrong.

A change in trend maybe coming soon. Unless Donald Trump is impeached and a Democrat comes in to reverse all his "For America" policies, Canadian real estate is going to be deep shit soon.

Trump's trade and domestic policies (tariffs + lowered taxes + soon to be launched rebuild America infrastructure) will create a lot of jobs in the US, and with the already tight US labor market, this could only mean wage inflation.

In normal times (e.g. 2006), a rising interest rates will be sufficient to subdue the stock market, and stop rate hikes but with Trump's policies, the stock market may not even crash, so we'll have a combo of rising interest rates + rising stock market.

Monetary policy might lose effect in face of Trump's inflationary fiscal and government policies.

Pardon me, but I found your post incoherent - I don't follow the connection from an "Asian/China property market" (which by the way the Government of British Columbia's own data has now conclusively refuted) to "deep $#!£" to Donald Trump & wage inflation.

[touchring]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Don't feel too bad Mike. I thought the Vancouver housing market was crazy stupid back in 2010. It is my home town after all, even though I have not been resident there since 1979. In the years since it has only gotten crazier and stupider from my perspective. And then Toronto followed along a similar, albeit lower amplitude, path. But a LOT of property millionaires have doubtless been minted over that time, so what do I know.

The Vancouver property market is basically the Asian/China property market.

Here's how I see it, correct me if I'm wrong.

A change in trend maybe coming soon. Unless Donald Trump is impeached and a Democrat comes in to reverse all his "For America" policies, Canadian real estate is going to be deep shit soon.

Trump's trade and domestic policies (tariffs + lowered taxes + soon to be launched rebuild America infrastructure) will create a lot of jobs in the US, and with the already tight US labor market, this could only mean wage inflation.

In normal times (e.g. 2006), a rising interest rates will be sufficient to subdue the stock market, and stop rate hikes but with Trump's policies, the stock market may not even crash, so we'll have a combo of rising interest rates + rising stock market.

Monetary policy might lose effect in face of Trump's inflationary fiscal and government policies.

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Don't feel too bad Mike. I thought the Vancouver housing market was crazy stupid back in 2010. It is my home town after all, even though I have not been resident there since 1979. In the years since it has only gotten crazier and stupider from my perspective. And then Toronto followed along a similar, albeit lower amplitude, path. But a LOT of property millionaires have doubtless been minted over that time, so what do I know.

[Mega]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Good Eveing Gents
I threw the towel in last year, not sure why we seen no crack up boom...........no mega inflation.
I feel so very, very depressed (hence my lack of posts)..........i feel like am trapped in the Mad house, the event horzison of a CB Black hole.............

[GRG55]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

That chart reminds me of "New Economy" vs "Old Economy" stock charts circa 4rth Q 1999.

[dcarrigg]

Re: The "Forever" Canadian Housing Bubble

Seems like it has been going on forever.
Vancouver seems invincible, no matter how many new taxes the governments throw at it. The foreign buyers tax (otherwise known as the Chinese Dudes Tax) has been raised from 15% to 20%. We will see if that proves more effective.
Toronto had the froth lightly skimmed off, and that's about it so far.
Calgary is maintaining a half-decade flat line despite the devastation since 2014 in high paying energy sector jobs and outright hostility from governments across the land towards the domestic Canadian hydrocarbon industry.
And the condo markets in all three cities are on fire (black dotted line) - its the only thing anybody can actually afford apparently.
Mortgage rates up again this past week.

Coming from Boston, it still blows my mind how affordable Montreal is even after it has heated up these past couple years. I know they have their own program and there are a few drawbacks to living there as an anglophone, I'm sure. But actual downtown brownstones are still in middle class stretch-reach, never mind single family homes that are nice and affordable everywhere. And it's a city with all the public transit and culture and amenities you could want with a reasonably large corporate presence for jobs as well. I mean, if you sold my small, ancient house down here and drove five hours north you could be living pretty damned well in a decent city. And you could live pretty much like a king if you're willing to commute onto and off of the island. Meanwhile, in Vancouver, if you don't inherit a home you pretty much have to be homeless to be middle class. Such a huge disparity between places...

[GRG55]

Seems like it has been going on forever.
Vancouver seems invincible, no matter how many new taxes the governments throw at it. The foreign buyers tax (otherwise known as the Chinese Dudes Tax) has been raised from 15% to 20%. We will see if that proves more effective.
Toronto had the froth lightly skimmed off, and that's about it so far.
Calgary is maintaining a half-decade flat line despite the devastation since 2014 in high paying energy sector jobs and outright hostility from governments across the land towards the domestic Canadian hydrocarbon industry.
And the condo markets in all three cities are on fire (black dotted line) - its the only thing anybody can actually afford apparently.
Mortgage rates up again this past week.