Galbraith on Greece

[Thailandnotes]

Re: This is a Mistery?

I don't regularly watch Democracynow.org, but when stories like Greece come along, it's a given they will tell you stuff you don't know about the situation. This is Friday's show. I think Mark Weisbrot hits the nail on the head. I always enjoy listening to him speak.

http://www.democracynow.org/2015/7/1...eece_yields_to


and maybe more than you want to know or listen to...


http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?...&jumival=14241

[gnk]

Re: This is a Mistery?

Economically speaking, it's a brutal agreement. But, I think Germany has had enough and made sure that this agreement has teeth, especially concerning reforms. We'll see. Tsipras is already facing a lot of pushback in his party. The extremists want nothing to do with it. No forced resignations among cabinet ministers yet. He should be able to get it passed with the help of the opposition. But, at what cost to Tsipras? Will we have an election again in September/October?

Tsipras' one advantage is that although just like his (establishment) predecessors he was forced into a Memorandum, he was not in power during the "wild west" days of pre crisis corruption. For many Greeks, it's easier to stomach a memorandum coming from a government that was not involved in the massive corruption that took place pre crisis. (Not that many Greeks themselves weren't a part of that corrupt era.)

[astonas]

Re: This is a Mistery?

You misunderstood me, or you're reading too much into it. I said nothing about reforms. Most Greeks are relieved just to still be in the Euro. They know there is stability in that currency because that currency can't be affected by their incompetent, corrupt political class.

Fair enough. But whatever instability they think they've avoided, they've in actuality only delayed. The debt pile grows with each "bailout" round.

[gnk]

Re: This is a Mistery?

You misunderstood me, or you're reading too much into it. I said nothing about reforms. Most Greeks are relieved just to still be in the Euro. They know there is stability in that currency because that currency can't be affected by their incompetent, corrupt political class.

[astonas]

Re: This is a Mistery?

There is a strong belief in the European ideal, yes. But there is more.

Recall all the articles I have been posting in various threads detailing corruption and incompetence? Greeks are not stupid, unhinged occasionally, but not stupid. They know the system is rotten. They know that their current political system is an abysmal failure. They know better than all the well educated analysts and Nobel prize winning economists out there what life would be like in Greece should Greece go drachma.

I can't tell you how many Greeks from many political persuasions breathed a sigh of relief today, despite the damage to national pride.

Greece's tremendous contribution to history makes it abundantly clear that Greeks are not stupid; and desperation is certainly a very powerful motivator. It might even wind up being worth the great cost to respond based on it.

But have those people breathing sighs of relief actually escaped what they fear?

Isn't it more accurate to say that they postponed something -- at great additional cost -- without changing the likelihood of it happening at all? In truth, isn't the probability even greater now, since this bailout would add more debt to the pile?

In other words, is that sense of relief based on an accurate assessment of long-term odds, or is it more that the inevitable will still come, but just not today. The mind gives vastly more weight to the imminent, and relief can be based on a perceived escape, as much as a real one.

Don't get me wrong, I can understand being relieved by postponing horror. Hope springs eternal, and without it, one is defeated from the start. But it doesn't mean one has actually eliminated the horror.

Can a path be forged to do that?

I am judging by the news coverage, of course. If you are right, and there is a large silent majority desperate for change, and willing to support painful reforms -- even at their own personal expense -- at the polls, that might indeed change circumstances. But look at the referendum. 61% No. Did all of those voters imagine that they were simply giving their government ammunition for negotiating, and now that the negotiation is over, happily accept that they have the best deal they could get? "Oh well, we gave it a try?"

Possible, I suppose. We'll see how the next weeks play out. But I remain concerned.

Or perhaps it might take a Greek leader of tremendous courage and charisma to turn around the sentiment of the streets, and bring those relieved people, who might well be a silent majority, to the fore of the political stage. Where is he?

You see that I am still left confused. If what you describe is really a significant political force, why is it that this wasn't made manifest at the polls already? As you rightly point out, the corruption has gone on for decades. There was no shortage of elections that might have revealed a leader willing to support such a platform. But even when a leader does emerge with plans for reform, they wind up unsuccessful anyway. In spite of a mandate, the reform is blocked.

To be in favor of "reform" in the abstract, but also unwilling to give up something on an individual level for it without a fight, is to be against reform. It might well be that in a given society, complaining about corruption demonstrates moral standing (so you get a lot of complaining) but that it is also considered moral to defend your own interests by extralegal means, when necessary (so nothing can change). The two aren't mutually exclusive. Are you certain this isn't the sort of "support" you are seeing everywhere you go? All the words you can hear, but never any action?

The election threshold for a party in Greece is just 3%. If a sincere reformist opinion truly were truly a central political force for even a small group, wouldn't it already be well-represented? Or is the implication more that this sentiment was only really brought to the surface now, by the threat of Grexit?

If the latter, another problem arises. It would make this moment a one-time chance to reform. Grexit can't credibly be threatened over every little reform. And even if it could be made credible, the continuous harping on it would obliterate the idea that the Union could ever become something more lasting. In other words, it would be just as bad for the EMU as an actual Grexit would.

And I suspect it would be as bad for Greece, as well. The external pressure might get the reforms instituted, to some degree, but there would be tremendous internal pressure built up as a result. As soon as the forcing function leaves, wouldn't that internal resentment simply cause the reforms to be thrown out again, as a relic of the evil oppressors?

Perhaps the Buddha was right. Maybe change does have to come from within.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: This is a Mistery?

Hanlon's Razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Watch this to understand the above.

Perhaps, I know the principle.

[gnk]

Re: This is a Mistery?

Hanlon's Razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Watch this to understand the above.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: This is a Mistery?

Questions

• [*=left]Did the US bribe Tsprias with a secret account worth millions?
  [*=left]Is someone holding his kids hostage?

If one of those (or something similar) does not explain the reversal, then what does?

Perhaps Tsipras did exactly what he was planning to do.

Chain of events:

1. Demand whatever X that they knew Germany would not agree to.

2. Push out the timeline to the absolute last second.

3. Call a "surprise" referendum to get the people to vote against the atrocious "debt agreement."

4. Wait until the very last second once again.

5. Accept an even worse "debt agreement" from Germany and the EU.

6. All in order to play the ultimate hand of poker: To show the world the totalitarian actions of Germany and the EU with the sacrificial lamb being the Greek people setting up the future event of a potential collapse of the EMU or fiscal unification.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

Even thought we don't always agree, I feel we share a disdain for the political elites on both ends of the spectrum. Both parties support elites and with control comes the excessive rewards, while 99% of the population is left with the crumbs.

Crony capitalism, communism, socialism, fascism; none work. It would seem like the brainpower here could come up with ideas with something that begins to have promise.

Any ideas?

It all ends the same way as you say.

Crimes of mass political/financial corruption should be dealt with decisively.

A ponzi schemer doing a perp walk doesn't cut it.

Corruption franchises have been built with multiple concentric "moats" around them not unlike the way Warren Buffett recommends searching for businesses to invest in.

How do you drain the moat?

How do you breach the walls?

How do you prevent it from happening again?

How do you defend the main effort(a fair and reasonable game of monopoly) if you gain traction and when you are targeted nicely and not so nicely by deeply entrenched interests not keen on the idea of losing the greatest illicit franchise ever?

-----

What happens when a good police commander stands in front of the narco/human trafficking bus?

He/she takes the money, or his/her family is liquidated.

And narco/human trafficking is small change compared to these deeply entrenched illicit franchises.

-----

I don't see a "viable alternative" gaining any significant traction within a corrupt and compromised 2 party, no choice system.

Recall EJ's own comments on Eliot Spitzer journey to power and his fall from it.

The very self-compromise that provided the key to entry to power was his undoing when he went off message.

Would he have passed thru the various gates to power if there were no compromise strings attached and pulling him?

-----

A successful alternative, if achieved, would likely have to be highly unconventional/viral, resilient/persistent, and probably messy.

-----

I've long thought that a single issue, non-partisan, internet centric effort to inoculate the systemic corruption would provide the best opportunity.

Maybe chemotherapy is a better choice of words than inoculation.

inoculation implies cure, while chemotherapy implies control/mitigation.

Corruption is never going to be cured, but it could certainly be far better controlled/mitigated/filtered.

Candidate positions on abortion, gun control, illegal immigration, welfare, taxation, etc. are all secondary after primary consideration is given to understanding who owns the candidate? The constituency or the corporates?

But even then.......how do you effectively deal with constituents who collectively scream at their elected politicians to bankrupt the country tomorrow in order to get more stuff today?

You didn't include benign totalitarianism.

[vt]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

Yes gnk.

The Greeks aren't alone in the entitlement mentality. Much of Europe is as well as portions of the U.S. The FIRE economy is as unrealistic as over weighted public sectors.

Germany has done well on the export stage; if only the rest of Europe was as productive. Germany does have major problems in the near future with it's demographic downtrend. They have to engender more domestic spending in the EU.

[gnk]

Re: This is a Mistery?

Whatever it is that is keeping the Greek public's desire to remain in the EMU so high, it is really expensive. I honestly do not know what that is. Pride? Belief in the European Ideal? I don't think, at this point, that it can be called economic self-interest.

There is a strong belief in the European ideal, yes. But there is more.

Recall all the articles I have been posting in various threads detailing corruption and incompetence? Greeks are not stupid, unhinged occasionally, but not stupid. They know the system is rotten. They know that their current political system is an abysmal failure. They know better than all the well educated analysts and Nobel prize winning economists out there what life would be like in Greece should Greece go drachma.

I can't tell you how many Greeks from many political persuasions breathed a sigh of relief today, despite the damage to national pride.

[gnk]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

Tsipras and the Greeks have been trying to live in a Euro Marxist fantasy land.

They reap what they sow by deluding the people into thinking that early pensions, too many useless government workers, and 89% of the population evading taxes will ever work.

Hopefully the rest of Europe will come to their senses and reform their entitlement system. They need to get rid of the excesses of the banksters and start to build real economies based on productive manufacturing and not financial manipulation.

Greeks have not felt the pain of responsibility that comes with paying taxes or balancing budgets for decades. Government was a gravy train.

That's why Greece is in the position it is in right now. If you can't run your own country, you face two options: economic collapse, or someone runs it for you.

It's going to be difficult, but at least the EU is trying. It is very easy for the naysayers right now. The critics have been predicting the downfall of the EU for a decade and a half now. They still don't get it. What we're seeing right now is a slow convergence among the states of Europe. It's a difficult process, but needs to be done.

And at least Europe, unlike other developed countries, is addressing the issue of entitlements, even though they still have the best entitlements in the world- and I think they will always be the best, comparatively speaking. It's a European thing. And Germany is right to address the productive economy, and not look for excessive government spending/hiring or growing the FIRE economy to address the western world's current ills, unlike other countries.

In this era of globalization and unfortunate global imbalances, I think the German model is the most realistic in the Western world. However, I do believe that Germany needs to address its massive trade surplus within the EU.

[Woodsman]

Re: This is a Mistery?

it took a nixon to go to china.

I don't think that's the model we're talking about here, JK. And anyway, that turned out quite well for the Chinese. But for the American worker (all collar colors), not so much.

[jk]

Re: This is a Mistery?

The Greek right should send Tsip a thank you card for doing what they could never, would never do.

it took a nixon to go to china.

[vt]

Re: Greece / Suicide Rate Surges 35% In 2 Years

Even thought we don't always agree, I feel we share a disdain for the political elites on both ends of the spectrum. Both parties support elites and with control comes the excessive rewards, while 99% of the population is left with the crumbs.

Crony capitalism, communism, socialism, fascism; none work. It would seem like the brainpower here could come up with ideas with something that begins to have promise.

Any ideas?