HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[phirang]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,

Maybe you are better off investing in a natural gas well in the yard:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayof...ing/index.html

Wow, it's like a crappy version of Saudi Arabia:p

[c1ue]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,

Maybe you are better off investing in a natural gas well in the yard:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayof...ing/index.html

Bishop Kenneth Spears always thought gifts from God came from above. He never imagined that the gifts would be hiding under his church in Fort Worth, Texas.

Spears' church received a $32,000 bonus and receives between $3,000 and $10,000 a month in royalty checks. The money is helping pay for a multimillion-dollar expansion and a new sanctuary.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Raja, that is what I am trying to achieve in the long run with my PMs.

Only problem is that history does not repeat itself...it rhymes.

Will rates ever go in the double-digits again? I find this hard to imagine even in 10 years...

If you can imagine that PM's are the best place to be over the long run, then ask yourself why? Bonds will go down at some point, and yields will go up.

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Meantime, maybe it's good to buy PM now, then sell and move the proceeds into bonds later?

Raja, that is what I am trying to achieve in the long run with my PMs.

Only problem is that history does not repeat itself...it rhymes.

Will rates ever go in the double-digits again? I find this hard to imagine even in 10 years...

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

8/19/08

Allocations:

23.16% IN -200% ETF's : DXD, SDS, QID, TWM, SKF, SRS

6.28% IN PM's : GTU, CEF, DGP (+200% on gold) and a bit of physical Au Ag.

1.90% in DRR -200% against the Euro

3.78% in Energy : VLO, TSO, FTO AND UNG

19.40% in US hedged equity HSGFX

45.47% in Cash, MMF's

[zenith191]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Very few mention any real estate in portfolios - Is this because no real estate is owned, or it isn't regarded as an investment?

Yes I see alot of paper assets in people's portfolios here. Hardly any real estate or business assets.

To contrast I am invested:

USD cash accounts 20%
Short US stock markets 10%
Foreign currencies 5%
Gold bullion 5%
Residential real estate 60% (all less than 80% LTV and with positive cashflow)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

thx. a lot more than my question deserved... you r on my ass in some ways, my man. and i'm keen to hear from the others... i want to know is... the ituip dec. 2007 forecast was against the grain. you guy were with russell and others via of an up 2008 market. now 6 mo. into it, does the market go where they predicted? just wondering how the bull position feels now? you may still be right.

metalman,

I'd have to look back to see when my subscription with Russell expired, but I would not characterize whatever decisions I make as being determined by any particular guru--but perhaps I should do just that.

One thing I maintain is that I cannot see tomorrow, it is all a guess and maybe some people's prognostications for longer terms will turn out to be on the money, but it is the ups and downs between Monday and the long term with which I attempt to contend. It is just what most interests me.

I don't argue that trading is the best way to make money, but for the last several years it seems to have been working for me--and I cannot and will not discount pure luck.

I think everybody with a lick of sense makes some sort of timing decisions--the exception would be those who only buy and hold til they die.

Sy Harding presents an opinion about timing here and that is not a terrible article to at least peruse.

So Wall Street obviously knows when to sell, knows the market can be timed, but won't ever tell you when to sell. That's a decision you have to make on your own.

The market can be timed, and certainly not only by Wall Street institutions, mutual funds, hedge funds, and other so-called 'smart money'.

[metalman]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

In another thread, metalman asks:


Because of my intrepretation of things: the nearness of the DJI to again testing its lows of Jan and Mar yesterday (FRI. 6/20/08) and the lesser corrections in the SPX, NDX, and RUT, late yesterday I closed about 60% of my -200% inverse positions which included the entire SKF ETF financials. That leaves me with about 7.75% in inverse funds compared to 18.8% in the above note from 6/19/08 with them being about 1.5% each between DXD, SRS, QIDS, TWM, and SRS.

Otherwise my basic allocations are as above.

Yesterday, my portfolio appreciation was at its highest since having been close to a wipe out in 10/2002; however, I have only made 4.5K since 3/10 which was also a portfolio high. My greatest drawdown since 3/10 was 2.84% on 6/5/08.

In a while I'll post a note in the bullish thread by Mike Burk, which suggests that we may be about to see some sort of a bottom in here--whether a temporary one or a significant one would remain to be seen.

I do not at all dismiss all the bearish arguments that exist now and for some while, and if I had to make a longer term bet it would still be to the downside, but I don't have to make such a bet.

IF early next week we were to get a big intraday drop early in a day and then start what might appear to be a big bounce back to higher territory, then I think now I would close out my inverse positions and open +200 long positions.

thx. a lot more than my question deserved... you r on my ass in some ways, my man. and i'm keen to hear from the others... i want to know is... the ituip dec. 2007 forecast was against the grain. you guy were with russell and others via of an up 2008 market. now 6 mo. into it, does the market go where they predicted? just wondering how the bull position feels now? you may still be right.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

In another thread, metalman asks:

grape, jim, & tulipen,

in this thread from jan 08 you're stock bulls... didn't buy into the itulip debt deflation bear market scenario. six months into the year, what are your thoughts?

Because of my intrepretation of things: the nearness of the DJI to again testing its lows of Jan and Mar yesterday (FRI. 6/20/08) and the lesser corrections in the SPX, NDX, and RUT, late yesterday I closed about 60% of my -200% inverse positions which included the entire SKF ETF financials. That leaves me with about 7.75% in inverse funds compared to 18.8% in the above note from 6/19/08 with them being about 1.5% each between DXD, SRS, QIDS, TWM, and SRS.

Otherwise my basic allocations are as above.

Yesterday, my portfolio appreciation was at its highest since having been close to a wipe out in 10/2002; however, I have only made 4.5K since 3/10 which was also a portfolio high. My greatest drawdown since 3/10 was 2.84% on 6/5/08.

In a while I'll post a note in the bullish thread by Mike Burk, which suggests that we may be about to see some sort of a bottom in here--whether a temporary one or a significant one would remain to be seen.

I do not at all dismiss all the bearish arguments that exist now and for some while, and if I had to make a longer term bet it would still be to the downside, but I don't have to make such a bet.

IF early next week we were to get a big intraday drop early in a day and then start what might appear to be a big bounce back to higher territory, then I think now I would close out my inverse positions and open +200 long positions.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Broadly, inverse ETF'S 18.8% via DXD SDS QID TWM SRS SKF

AG COMMODITIES: 2.15% via DBA, RJA

Physical PM: 2.21% 24:1 gold:silver

PM's 14.95% via CEF, GTU, GLD, SLV, RJZ (2/3 BASE, 1/3 PRECIOUS)

FOREIGN CURRENCY: 17.29% via FXY, FXF, CNY, MEAFX

Hedged US Equity: 18.68% via HSGFX

Cash: USD 25.9%

Precisely at 11:32 Central Time 6/19/08

Above was posted at link in response to krakknisse's asking, because kk is not a spook, I answered.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,
sorry to hear about your losses on DCR. I was going to advise you to hold on to it as oil should be going down (short term that is, reversion to mean). Then I checked it against DUG (that many daytraders use to short oil) and WTF, this DCR is a serious loosing money proposition and sounds like a scam. Then I read this discussion that confirmed this being a rip off: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...=2&frt=2&off=1

I put up my losses not to seek commiseration, for which I do thank you, but rather to share some of the hardships one investor experiences from time to time.

jacek, I don't know that you look at charts, but last time I looked, which was yesterday, the top performing etf's almost all have "energy" in their names, the others would you believe "homebuilders," and the energy ones seem to my interpretation to suggest prices can go higher. Certainly I do not know that they will right now, but it looks conducive to that, though who knows they may all turn to shit tomorrow. Regarding DCR, that was nearly my exact sentiment "WTF"!! Thanks for the link, I'll read it later this evening.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,
sorry to hear about your losses on DCR. I was going to advise you to hold on to it as oil should be going down (short term that is, reversion to mean). Then I checked it against DUG (that many daytraders use to short oil) and WTF, this DCR is a serious loosing money proposition and sounds like a scam. Then I read this discussion that confirmed this being a rip off: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...=2&frt=2&off=1

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Weekending 4/18/08

Last week was not a good week for me. I took a 9.34% loss on ~$227K positions divided between QID, TWM, DXD, SDS, SKF, & SRS and in the last six market days a loss of 23.86% on DCR.

My current positions are:

4/18/08	POSITION	% INVESTD	NOW GAIN	% GAIN	ALLOCATION
GOLD & SILVER	CEF	0.83%	3,106	51.43%
-200% GOLD ETN	DZZ	0.99%	-25	-0.23%
GOLD	GTU	1.28%	4,570	47.56%	3.10%	PM'S
COMM	DBC	1.72%	50	0.26%
COMM	GSG	1.77%	583	3.07%	3.50%	COMMODTIES
OIL	USO	1.78%	980	5.24%
NATURAL GAS	UNG	1.77%	835	4.45%	3.56%	ENERGY
UP US $ X2	RYSBX	1.14%	127	1.02%		STRONG DOLLAR
YIELD ON 30YR-BOND	RRPIX	7.18%	-675	-0.84%		RISING 30-YR TREAS. RATE
HEDGED EQUITY	HSGFX	18.57%	2,643	1.31%	26.90%	HSGFX HEDGED EQUITY MUTUAL FD
	% INVESTED	37.05%	11)">12,193	2.57%
	BOLD RED SYMBOLS = MOVE -200% OF RESPECTIVE INDICES

Perhaps no one but me is getting any benefit out of this thread, but for me it has made me look more closely at what I am doing. I don't recall if I ever emphasized that NO ONE should take what I am doing as a guide to what they should be doing.

This year I have made ~128 trades (I write approximately because I did not go back and check my initial tabulation). That has cost me ~$2304 on ~$1,395,000 in capital invested or 0.165% or .165 of a cent for every dollar put into and taken out of positions. To me the costs of my trading are negligible, besides where does one actually obtain anything for nothing these days.

There have been 75 trading days this year during which I have gained $794/day, or annualized 21.69%. For the 109 calendar days of the year that comes out to $546/day or 14.92% annualized.

For 2007 my gain was 10.77%; this year to date it is 5.24% for my total portfolios.

My one year gain is 11.99%, two years 11.24% compounded, three years 12.22% compounded, and since 12/31/1999 -0.89%.

My biggest drawndown this year is -2.46%, and for 2007 it was ~ -4%.

From an ETF screen I have begun running, through 4/18/08 below are the 15 top performing ETF's since the last general equity market lows on 3/10/08. The listed ETF's may not have hit their most recent lows that day. The gains as calculated by the program are based on closing prices and range from 35.69% for URE to 22.29% for UVT. I believe these to be correct, but surely do not guarantee it. Some of these ETF's are what I consider to be very thinly traded.

Home building, real estate: URE XHB SAW ITB

Energy: QLCN OIH DIG GEX

General equity: UVT RMM UKK QLD

Financial: UYG

Agricultural: MOO

Basic materials: UYM

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I own my own home too, just because it's illiquid is doesn't cease to be my biggest investment. Maybe because it is so illiquid it is even more important to keep an eye on it's relative performance vs. it's utility (living in it!).

Perhaps not including property in your portfolio makes it even more illiquid, by reinforcing the viewpoint that it is not a tradeable investment?

It might also be useful for you to keep tabs on your property investment performance vs. other investments; as Finster points out relative performance is more useful than a single monetary measure.

Without property included, perhaps it could be argued that this thread is more 'one iTuliper's liquid investments' rather than 'how one iTuliper is invested?'

My house value is going to go down and up (I guess someday). We need a place to live, and because I despise moving, I'm not moving for considerations of making a gain or saving a loss on our house value, period. I include my house value in my net worth, and I estimate my house value as being the amount of principal I have paid on it. For the 5% of building, it too is net worth, but estimated from 5-10 years ago.

In starting this thread, I hoped it would encourage others to start their thread and discuss their investments, but no way did that happen. The name isn't important, and perhaps what I post isn't either.

I still would like some feedback, I guess I raised that point here--don't have time to look now.

Why are people invested in whatever it is they own with regard to stocks, bond, mutual funds, gold, etc.? I don't ask that to get into anybody else's business, I just wonder what is guiding their decisions: what they read somewhere, hear on TV or from friends, newsletters, iTulip, books whatever, why do we buy what we buy?

[renewable]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I own my home, mostly, and a percentage of an office building. I just don't count them when I am thinking in terms of liquid investable monies.

I own my own home too, just because it's illiquid is doesn't cease to be my biggest investment. Maybe because it is so illiquid it is even more important to keep an eye on it's relative performance vs. it's utility (living in it!).

Perhaps not including property in your portfolio makes it even more illiquid, by reinforcing the viewpoint that it is not a tradeable investment?

It might also be useful for you to keep tabs on your property investment performance vs. other investments; as Finster points out relative performance is more useful than a single monetary measure.

Without property included, perhaps it could be argued that this thread is more 'one iTuliper's liquid investments' rather than 'how one iTuliper is invested?'