HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Yes, this is about the bull/bear ratio averaged (not sure the exact calculation). This is from a commercial source (copyrighted). I will send you a PM.

Thanks for the reply and the graph in your PM, but that does not resolve the issue for me, and I hope you too, and any others that have an interest in sentiment indications.

Below are data that I believe to be correct, but cannot check them against the AAII database.

				4-WK AVG
	BULLS	BEARS	Bulls-Bears	OF BU-BR	CORRECTION
12/07/07	40.7	39.8	0.90		19.5
12/14/07	47.6	35.7	11.90		16.6
12/21/07	35.9	47.2	-11.30		17.0
12/28/07	30.0	50.0	-20.00	-4.63	20.0
01/04/08	25.7	55.2	-29.50	-12.23	19.1
01/11/08	19.6	58.9	-39.30	-25.03	21.5
01/18/08	24.3	54.4	-30.10	-29.73	21.3
01/25/08	25.1	59.0	-33.90	-33.20	15.9
02/01/08	30.1	48.9	-18.80	-30.53	21.1
02/08/08	34.1	47.2	-13.10	-23.98	18.7
02/15/08	33.3	41.9	-8.60	-18.60	24.8
02/22/08	33.2	44.7	-11.50	-13.00	22.1
02/29/08	34.3	45.3	-11.00	-11.05	20.4
03/07/08	22.0	51.7	-29.70	-15.20	26.4
03/14/08	20.4	59.2	-38.80	-22.75	20.4
03/20/08	25.2	54.3	-29.10	-27.15	20.5
03/28/08	41.6	33.6	8.00	-22.40	24.8
04/04/08	36.7	39.4	-2.70	-15.65	23.9
04/11/08	45.8	37.3	8.50	-3.83	17.0
04/18/08	30.4	48.7	-18.30	-1.13	20.9
04/25/08	46.7	27.5	19.20	1.68	25.8
05/02/08	53.3	26.3	27.00	9.10	20.4
05/09/08	52.8	24.7	28.10	14.00	22.5
05/16/08	45.2	29.7	15.50	22.45	25.2
05/23/08	46.3	34.3	12.00	20.65	19.4
05/30/08	31.4	45.8	-14.40	10.30	22.9
06/06/08	43.5	38.0	5.50	4.65	18.5
06/13/08	31.3	53.6	-22.30	-4.80	15.2
06/20/08	33.0	45.7	-12.70	-10.98	21.3
06/27/08	31.3	52.3	-21.00	-12.63	16.5
07/03/08	23.9	52.1	-28.20	-21.05	23.9
07/11/08	22.2	55.2	-33.00	-23.73	22.7
07/18/08	25.0	58.1	-33.10	-28.83	16.9
07/25/08	35.8	44.0	-8.20	-25.63	20.2
08/01/08	40.0	41.2	-1.20	-18.88	18.8
08/08/08	35.6	42.4	-6.80	-12.33	22.0
08/15/08	42.9	39.0	3.90	-3.08	18.2
08/22/08	38.1	37.3	0.80	-0.82	24.6
08/29/08	30.7	45.5	-14.80	-4.23	23.9
09/05/08	37.0	43.2	-6.20	-4.08	19.8
09/12/08	29.3	54.9	-25.60	-11.45	15.9
09/19/08	27.2	54.4	-27.20	-18.45	18.4
09/26/08	34.0	45.7	-11.70	-17.68	20.2
10/03/08	33.3	55.0	-21.70	-21.55	11.7
10/10/08	31.5	60.8	-29.30	-22.48	7.7

I don't know what sort of manipulation your provider of the graph has performed, but the data I put above do not bear out that the AAII is at some sort of historical low, they do not bear out that the sentiment is even at a new yearly low.

You might question your provider to see if there is not some error it has made.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Immediate edit: I think I was misunderstanding what jacek wrote. If he meant the ratio of bulls to bears, then he may be very correct. I'm checking it.

Second edit: No, I don't think that ratio is anything like .28 avg for the last 4 weeks. It is more like 0.59, so I have no idea where the .28 average is coming from.

Yes, this is about the bull/bear ratio averaged (not sure the exact calculation). This is from a commercial source (copyrighted). I will send you a PM.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I hurt a lot too as my TA and sentiment analysis failed me in the last several weeks.

Regarding AA and II sentiments, the AAII bullratio 4-weak average (0.28) is lowest since 1990. The II bull ratio is lowest since 1995 (0.33). The AAII stock allocation is near 50%, comparable to second half of 2002, and cash allocation is over 35%, again, comparable with 2002 lows. The CBOE PC ratios are high as expected in market extremes. Also, VIX was the highest since 1987, Rydex sentiment lowest in 8 years. The could be a few more days of selling, but this has to be close to the end.

The last several days of heavy selling were most likely caused by margin calls and failing hedge funds liquidating leveraged positions in a hurry. The rumor has it that several large funds folded recently.
The below chart showing high correlation between oil and stock index shows it well, normally those show inverse correlation:


I'm not saying that this is THE bottom in general equities, but likely an immediate low. It could be possible THE bottom in miners and energy stocks as those suffered a double blow from falling stocks and commodities at the same time. This where I'm currently invested for the record, but obviously started buiding positions a few weeks early. I also started some positions in nasdaq, small US stocks, and emerging markets and phased out most gold (except for some physical holdings). I hope that gold will go down to rebuild positions at some point.

jacek,

I just did this on my AAII Bulls data. Middle colum is weekly reading of bulls.

05/30/08	46.3
06/06/08	31.4
06/13/08	43.5	4-week avg
06/13/08	31.3	38.1
06/20/08	33.0	34.8
06/27/08	31.3	34.8
07/03/08	23.9	29.9
07/11/08	22.2	27.6
07/18/08	25.0	25.6
07/25/08	35.8	26.7
08/01/08	40.0	30.8
08/08/08	35.6	34.1
08/15/08	42.9	38.6
08/22/08	38.1	39.2
08/29/08	30.7	36.8
09/05/08	37.0	37.2
09/12/08	29.3	33.8
09/19/08	27.2	31.1
09/26/08	34.0	31.9
10/03/08	33.3	31.0
10/10/08	31.5	31.5

Unless there is an error(s) in my data, which I am failing to see, then what you reported about the 4-weak [sic] avg. being the lowest since 1990 is not correct. It was lower in this table in July and even lower at times in March this year.

I'll reiterate, there are too many bulls right now to demonstrate anything like an aversion to owning stocks.

Immediate edit: I think I was misunderstanding what jacek wrote. If he meant the ratio of bulls to bears, then he may be very correct. I'm checking it.

Second edit: No, I don't think that ratio is anything like .28 avg for the last 4 weeks. It is more like 0.59, so I have no idea where the .28 average is coming from.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I hurt a lot too as my TA and sentiment analysis failed me in the last several weeks.

Regarding AA and II sentiments, the AAII bullratio 4-weak average (0.28) is lowest since 1990. The II bull ratio is lowest since 1995 (0.33). The AAII stock allocation is near 50%, comparable to second half of 2002, and cash allocation is over 35%, again, comparable with 2002 lows. The CBOE PC ratios are high as expected in market extremes. Also, VIX was the highest since 1987, Rydex sentiment lowest in 8 years. The could be a few more days of selling, but this has to be close to the end.

The last several days of heavy selling were most likely caused by margin calls and failing hedge funds liquidating leveraged positions in a hurry. The rumor has it that several large funds folded recently.
The below chart showing high correlation between oil and stock index shows it well, normally those show inverse correlation:


I'm not saying that this is THE bottom in general equities, but likely an immediate low. It could be possible THE bottom in miners and energy stocks as those suffered a double blow from falling stocks and commodities at the same time. This where I'm currently invested for the record, but obviously started buiding positions a few weeks early. I also started some positions in nasdaq, small US stocks, and emerging markets and phased out most gold (except for some physical holdings). I hope that gold will go down to rebuild positions at some point.

Nice commentary, jacek. Are you quoting some source with the II and AAII comments above, or are they from your own data? If the latter, are you willing to provide me, free of charge, with the AA and II data as far back as you have it?

Based on some deep sense of gloom that has pervaded my being in the past week, I am NOT so sure "this has to be close to the end" of the current down blast. We are into to a place that I have certainly not been before, and my attitude is if blow offs in parabolic moves up can occur, and they definitely happen, why should it be any different on the downside?

Here is a snippet I got this weekend from jk that came from Jesses crossroads, sorry I don't have the link, and I don't know exactly what day it was written--really piss poor of me to put up such tripe.

This is something going around the trading desks. Suddenly tightening margin credit is a precipitant to artificially steep market declines as those students of the Crash of 1929 will well remember. That is something one does on the upside of a potential asset bubble, not in the decline.

If this is true, then there is an obvious need for the Fed to step in and provide credit relief even if on high rates, moreso than propping up a few banks by buying their worthless assets at above market prices.

Forced margin selling because of arbitrary private bank policies is going to create a major problem in the financial markets, leading to a greater concentration of wealth.

The selling has reached historic proportions. There literally is a "run on the market," as investors worldwide are dumping stocks.

It seems that the major catalyst for this selling is the fact that the newest large banks primarily J. P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and possibly Morgan Stanley as well -- have issued massive margin calls to hedge funds and other professional traders who use these banks as prime brokers.

These calls were not issued because of market losses, but more because the banks arbitrarily decided that they wanted their customers to use less leverage. Margin rates as low as 15% for broker dealers were raised to 35%; hedge funds who had been used to operating on high leverage were told that they had to bring accounts up to a much larger percentage of equity.

In this illiquid environment, where all manor of exotic securities literally have no bids, the only place to raise the cash to meet margin calls was to sell stock. That is what really set this market over the edge -- as the first notice of these calls were issued on October 2nd and 3rd.

There was something of a grace period to meet the calls, but funds realized they weren't going to be able to meet them other than by selling stock. There are rumors that the most massive of the calls are due Monday (October 13th). If so, this market could continue to decline through then.

I don't know who wrote that quote, and I don't know if the writer actually knows shit from shinola about what he wrote. It seems to me that there is critically important information in that quote, and were it true and capable of making it onto some website, why wouldn't it make it somewhere into the mainstream financial news?

[friendly_jacek]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

sorry, duplicate post (busy website problem?)

[friendly_jacek]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

As much as my vested interests hurt to say it, I think there is still a lack of capitulation in both the put call ratios and sentiment polls. I hate to think that.

I hurt a lot too as my TA and sentiment analysis failed me in the last several weeks.

Regarding AA and II sentiments, the AAII bullratio 4-weak average (0.28) is lowest since 1990. The II bull ratio is lowest since 1995 (0.33). The AAII stock allocation is near 50%, comparable to second half of 2002, and cash allocation is over 35%, again, comparable with 2002 lows. The CBOE PC ratios are high as expected in market extremes. Also, VIX was the highest since 1987, Rydex sentiment lowest in 8 years. The could be a few more days of selling, but this has to be close to the end.

The last several days of heavy selling were most likely caused by margin calls and failing hedge funds liquidating leveraged positions in a hurry. The rumor has it that several large funds folded recently.
The below chart showing high correlation between oil and stock index shows it well, normally those show inverse correlation:


I'm not saying that this is THE bottom in general equities, but likely an immediate low. It could be possible THE bottom in miners and energy stocks as those suffered a double blow from falling stocks and commodities at the same time. This where I'm currently invested for the record, but obviously started buiding positions a few weeks early. I also started some positions in nasdaq, small US stocks, and emerging markets and phased out most gold (except for some physical holdings). I hope that gold will go down to rebuild positions at some point.

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I would hope you and all readers recognize hot air when they encounter it, and one form of "hot air" is people here hyping investments without making known their own positioning, another is the promotion of strong buy or sell opinions without statement of how one is positioned. It strikes me that most instances of the latter are individuals who are unsure of themselves putting out "feelers" for either approval or disapproval.

I'm not guilty! I'm still holding the Junior Golds EJ told me to get out of!!!! I didn't do it for a few reasons
Tax liability - I'd have paid 50% tax on the profits which were at the time still subsrtantial. Well time has sure fixed that!
A belief that the Aus $ would sink against about everything else in the world and that would keep my wee shares OK. Well I was right about the first half and dead wrong about the second
About 95% of my money is tied up in the business and warehouse so I reckoned my little punt on the Gold Juniors was not a big deal. Now of course i'm wishing i had the money I'd have saved and made by being in the metal! I just plain didn't understand how much everyone was geared up!!! Well bar me and a couple of others somewhere in Aus!

I suppose i'm short property over here as i sold the house. Whether Aus is different to the USA and GB etc is a moot point. Maybe under the influence og Govt and banks they can hold it together. My fallback on that is I own a warehouse. If property does blow up here, we are f....d worse than everyone except the Spaniards and the Brits i reckon. I still reckon it will enter a demolition derby but,,,,,,if anyone has a better idea about Aus? In the weekend Financial Review here is a full page on the demise of the top end of the market in Perth. Many of the new wealthy? from mining are selling. Well they are still asking much more than a year or two ago but none selling and plenty for sale at big money.
Just right now, i seem to be on all the wrong horses and it is not easy to get off and onto another lot when my mob is galloping towards hell at full pelt and the other mob is going in the other direction.

[Supercilious]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

To my knowledge, his criticism of you is the same as the "kettle calling pot black," how the fuck is he invested?

I don't know how is he invested, nor do I care.

I would hope you and all readers recognize hot air when they encounter it, and one form of "hot air" is people here hyping investments without making known their own positioning, another is the promotion of strong buy or sell opinions without statement of how one is positioned.

.
That is true. My distrust of PM for short and medium term as well as poor knowledge and understanding of PM's is reflected in my portfolio. Since I promised myself not to touch financial stocks for a while (and it's incredibly hard to be in shorting-financials withdrawal ) I use up to 10% of cash-for-play, to short gold or silver, when macroeconomic trends indicate imminent price movement (towards the ground ).

It strikes me that most instances of the latter are individuals who are unsure of themselves putting out "feelers" for either approval or disapproval.

.
That is true. I believe, in this category, there are also individuals bitter with their losses (or unsatisfactory small gains), who want to project a false successful investor forum-persona. Which is OK with me if that makes them feel better. Every clueless day trader when wakes up in the morning sees in the mirror a Warren Buffet.

Perhaps his criticism had some validity, was it directed at your lack of disclosure of positioning or because of bragging.

I've never bragged in connection to my portfolio, just in connection to unrealistic macrotrend views (like: there is no oil bubble, the Fed can't lower rates anymore etc.). I'm annoyed by some people who still refuse to believe the Fed is a corrupt and fraudulent system, that Wall Street is just a "den of thieves and vipers" (to quote Andrew Jackson) etc., etc.,

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

These are my current allocations and they are a bit off from reality because of another error in my new spreadsheet that I just recognized but am too tired at the moment to correct.

21.24%: +200% DDM SSO QLD UWM UYG
8.63% INTERNATIONALS: EEM EFA EWG EWJ EWS EWZ GXC VWO
1.98% ENERGY: FTO, TSO, VLO
2.46% COMMODITIES: UNG
18.97% Hedged equity: HSGFX
43% CASH

It is clear to me in playing these +/-200% ETF's that one has to be correct in the trend when entering them, because moves against one add up quite quickly, and I take that observation as being apparent to some others here who have expressed worry over these sort of things going against them.

I've never written truer words.

I was just a reading newsletter that pointed out the SPX has dropped 13.7% since the 7B$ bailout was passed, whew, I am sure glad they did that, because I cannot imagine what would have been the alternative.

Based on everything except Put/Call sentiment indications, the market has (and I am hesitant to use "has") to be near some sort of a bottom--or at least I am getting to hope it is. If it isn't then whatever turns out to be the bottom will really have some of the most remarkable declines in breadth indicators that I have seen yet.

I expect any rally, if it were to occur, will not be the start of anything in the way of a serious turnaround.

Much to my chagrin, I have not change my positioning as stated in the first quote above, and my ass has been handed to me.

Little did I know, repeat little did I know, that despite the carnage present on 10/7, that it could and definitely did get much worse. I've not kept up with reading iTulip for a week, and maybe it has been written how bad this decline is technically.

Here is a nice description by Mike Burk. http://www.safehaven.com/article-11536.htm

On October 20, 1987 there were 1174 new lows on the NYSE, about 57% of the 2076 issues that traded that day, a percentage record that held until recently. Last Friday there were 2901 new lows on the NYSE, about 88% of the 3306 issues traded. New lows have been calculated with their present methodology since January 1, 1978. At the 1987 low the S&P 500 (SPX) was 33.2% off its all time high set about 6 weeks earlier. On Friday the SPX was 42.5% off its all time high set about 1 year earlier.

Technical, as with most other forms of analysis looks for similar patterns in the past from which we make assumptions about the present. Records are being set daily, there are not many similar patterns in our market history.

I read a report that someone from Standard and Poors said we had the worst period (1 week, I think) for the SPX since December 1931. From December 5, 1931 to December 14, 1931 the SPX lost 14.1%, putting it 73% below its high of September 1929. It then bounced around until March 1932 when it was about 15% above the December lows before falling 51% to its final low on June 1, 1932. A total decline of 83%. In the past 8 trading days the SPX has fallen 22.8%, about the same as the crash of 1987.

The chart below covers the period from September 1931 to July 1932 showing the SPX in red. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

FRIDAY, 10/10 FELT LIKE A WINNING DAY IN THAT I ONLY LOST -2.6K COMPARED
TO -7.5K, -20.2K, -33K, -39.3K, -8.6KM, -38.5K FOR THE PAST 6 DAYS.

YTD AM DOWN -0.86%, +3.00%
FOR LAST 52WKS, +6.58% CMPD FOR LAST 2 YEARS,
+6.63% CMPD FOR LAST 3 YEARS
+9.06 CMPD FOR LAST 5 YEARS,
-1.45% CMPD SINCE 1/4/2000.

MY DRAWDOWN IS 12.73% and has occurred since 9/17/08.



Here is an something at which I looked earlier today.

Below are the highest weekly CBOE Equity put/call ratios back to 11/5/1999 , supposedly representing small investor bearishness.



1-----9/20/2002 1.08 SPX 845.39, with the final weekending low being 800.58 on 10/4/2002

However, the final daily low did not occur until 10/09/2002 and was at 776.76 and that works out to have been a further decline from 9/20/02 of 8.1%--so the bearishness was correct for 13 more market days.



2-----2/07/2003 0.98 SPX 829.69 with the retest weekending low being 828.89 on 3/7/2003; however the final daily low was ~3% lower on 3/10/03 at 800.73. Not much loss over a month, but it took a month for the final retest low: 21 days to daily low.



3-----The highest since 2/07/2003 is this week's 0.96


On 3/14/08 and 3/20/08 the ratio got up to 0.94 both weeks, and lows in there were 1273.37 on 3/10/2008 and 1276.60 on 3/17/08 with subsequent move up to 1426.63 on 5/19/08 which was a 12% rally.



I've written a number of times now the lack of bearishness being reflected in put call ratios and ISEE long call data (this is still not at extremes seen earlier this year when a lot less shit had hit the fan).

These numbers to my assessment still do not reflect serious bearishness, which makes me kick my own ass for not giving them greater weight.

The II and AAII numbers I intrepret as very bearish and reflect data now a week old in the former and more current in the latter--I think I am right about the times these polls are collected, but not positive.

Still AAII bulls are 31.5% this week, which I interpret as high in view of the current crash (Bears are 60.8% and that is the highest in a long time--not sure how far back), compared to 19.6% in Jan, 20.4% in Mar, and 22.2% in Jul.


MY CONCLUSION:

In the earlier instances, 9/02 and 3/03, the high put call ratios preceeded the final lows by 13 and 21 market days respectively. The ratios then were higher than now and significantly preceeded the final lows in the number of days.

As much as my vested interests hurt to say it, I think there is still a lack of capitulation in both the put call ratios and sentiment polls. I hate to think that.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Since I received strong criticism from metalman for bragging without any disclosure of my investment strategies, here is my current configuration of portfolio:

~10% cash
~90% crash proof investment:

• ~ 45% long GE (@20.06 , Warren Buffet can't be wrong and he bought GE at @22$)
• ~ 45% in a crash-proof mix of currency ETN's

I may use in the near future half of my cash to short gold and silver and/or silver if there is a clear opportunity, ....just to annoy Lukester, of course

To my knowledge, his criticism of you is the same as the "kettle calling pot black," how the fuck is he invested?

I would hope you and all readers recognize hot air when they encounter it, and one form of "hot air" is people here hyping investments without making known their own positioning, another is the promotion of strong buy or sell opinions without statement of how one is positioned. It strikes me that most instances of the latter are individuals who are unsure of themselves putting out "feelers" for either approval or disapproval.

Perhaps his criticism had some validity, was it directed at your lack of disclosure of positioning or because of bragging. Bragging about one's investments, or actually anything as I see it, is very poor form indeed.

[Supercilious]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Since I received strong criticism from metalman for bragging without any disclosure of my investment strategies, here is my current configuration of portfolio:

~10% cash
~90% crash proof investment:

• ~ 45% long GE (@20.06 , Warren Buffet can't be wrong and he bought GE at @22$)
• ~ 45% in a crash-proof mix of currency ETN's

I may use in the near future half of my cash to short gold and silver and/or silver if there is a clear opportunity, ....just to annoy Lukester, of course

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Unless Winch or someone else corrects me, the only 200% agriculturally related fund is AGA, which is -200% based on what index, I don't know.

Jim since I am based in Canada, I trade on the TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange) using in part the following ETFs (all with 2x leverage) offered by a firm called Horizons Beta Pro:

http://www.hbpetfs.com/

Their "HAU" is the DJ-AIG Grains (wheat-corn-rice 1/3 each me thinks) @ 200% leverage and edged in $CAD.

The last part ($CAD edge), may render it not so useful for someone based in the US and trading using $US.

...

Anyway, now that all the CBs are in hyperdrive coordinated printing, I think I am gonna take some of my 51% cash and move 10 points in crude and 10 points in US equity and yes some 10 points HAU...

[metalman]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Unless Winch or someone else corrects me, the only 200% agriculturally related fund is AGA, which is -200% based on what index, I don't know.

well, hello. where've ya been? was starting to worry about you...

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Largowinch,

What is symbol for 2x agricutural ETF? I have owned DBA for quite some time...Can't say I've enjoyed the ride, but still think agriculture will payoff.

Unless Winch or someone else corrects me, the only 200% agriculturally related fund is AGA, which is -200% based on what index, I don't know.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

My allocation is as follows:

51% Cash
49% Commodities (virtually all PMs)

In more details:

51% Cash @ 3.4% and 4.0% (non-taxed IRA or RRSP)
36% Gold
6% Platinum
5% Silver
1% Palladium
1% Natural Gas

My plan: Reduce my cash to 33% and buy some selected Chinese stocks, Crude Oil ETF (2x leverage) if crude goes below $80/barrel and agriculture ETF (2x leverage). Can you tell that I met Jim Rogers last week?

Awaiting suggestions / Comments.

PS: Can someone explain me how to copy paste a MS Excel graph or sheet on iTulip?

I cannot argue pro or con on your plan, Winch.

To post an Excel graph, you need to export it from your Excel as an .png or one of those type files to a server somewhere, and then to get that on a post here, use the image tags that pop up when you hit the picture icon on the menu line of the "reply to thread." window.

As far a pasting in
Excel table, just copy and paste it. That works for me.