HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

It is now the time for another update for those of you who cares. Comments and suggestion are always welcome.

I am particularly pleased of calendar year 2009, since so far, my portfolio is up 7.27%.

Most of my gains are derived from my PMs position. Remember; my base currency is the $CAD.

However, all is not good news: my Crude Oil position, via a 2X ETF (HOU.TO on Toronto Stock Exchange) is down roughly 40% due to contango I believe. Hayekvindicated pointed out to me that contango can really be bad for the health of your portfolio and I guess he was right. However, I still like the leverage and the fact that it is $CAD hedged (index follows next month NYMEX Crude Oil contracts in USD).

As of today, here is my "inflate me away baby" portfolio:

Cash	46.8%
Gold	33.4%
Platinum	7.0%
Silver	6.4%
Crude Oil (HOU)	5.5%
Palladium	0.7%
Natural Gas (HNU)	0.4%
Total:	100.0%

Note that "cash" means CDIC member banks (FDIC equivalent in Canada) insured GICs yielding roughly 4%. No one account exceeds the $100K limit covered by the Canadian Federal Gov.

I locked the rate for 18months back in September/October 2008 since I am a lucky guy. I can also sell the GICs at anytime, but the yield will be readjusted to 1.5% (if EJ says POOM is tomorrow for example).

I have no RE exposure, since I am a renter. Given the fact that I am an iTuliper, I don't think I need to mention that I do not have any other debt whatsoever (including car loan).

Lastly, special thanks to iTulip and its members for incredible-easy to read (well mostly :p) analysis, comments, discussions and suggestions.

[c1ue]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Largo,

Thanks for the suggestion - I don't speculate in stock/ETFs until I have a good internalized idea on how they behave. But I will put FAZ on the observation list.

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Geez I sound like a day trader!

Back in at 3.21 - suspected 3 standard deviation drop exceeded.

10% VAR again, average price now 3.125 + 1.7% overall portfolio gain

c1ue, if you want to add some spice in your life;

when you get out of UYG, buy FAZ and vice versa.

[c1ue]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Geez I sound like a day trader!

Back in at 3.21 - suspected 3 standard deviation drop exceeded.

10% VAR again, average price now 3.125 + 1.7% overall portfolio gain

[c1ue]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I've taken down half of my UYG position.

In at 3.02, out at 3.7044 (average). Sold 1 minute before close yesterday (timed sale).

Not as good as the previous peak at 3.96, but this is defensive posturing in case the Geithner bailout is not received well.

Basic thesis still intact: I expect at least a short term financials rally due to government bailout.

But politically the Republicans must make a stand. Otherwise if Obama's stimulus/bailout fails, the GOP cannot disavow. And if Obama's stimulus/bailout succeeds, the GOP cannot share the credit.

This makes for a (hopefully) more than nickel vacuuming opportunity.

But I am a terrible day trader, so only scaling out 5% of the 10% VAR entered into on 1/20.

+22.6% isn't bad either

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I am taking a beating on my HOU.TO position (crude).

Down something like 50% in one month.

...

and no, my wife does not know.

[c1ue]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I bailed out on my SKF today, 25% bump today, figured it was a good time to take some money off the table. Also somewhat expect an Obama rally but don't have the confidence to commit to the flip side like you are with UYG. Good luck.

SWG,

Yes, I was actually thinking SKF was going to get up to around 200, but after I had auto-rebought my previous 101-120 position, I figured 156 was plenty fine. For me - the risk of a 30% upside was not worth the 30% downside.

In fact I had tried to pick off a late day 138 on Wednesday, then sold on a late bounce on Thursday at 156 - 15 minutes before the bell.

I prefer to buy when the bias is in my favor rather than try to pick the exact top. Or in other words, when the general market trend is down, I prefer buying low rather than riding momentum.

Hence the UYG switchover as SKF went over 180.

I do still think it is early - hence the tiptoe followed by a another tiptoe as again I believe there will be some optimism with the next bailout(s).

The other rule I follow is my VAR is fixed for 1 quarter at a time. Thus even when I've gained significantly (+2% and +5% for SKF in 2009), I don't scale the V up 7% (i.e. I use the original starting V in each quarter).

Over the years it works for me because I'm only gradually increasing my bets - helps retain alpha since no one is able to trade perfectly all the time and it helps prevent the +10%/-10% leaving you negative.

[c1ue]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,

I sold SKF on the BofA news.

I'm buying now in anticipation of the next government intervention bounce.

I suspect even Obama can't pass that in a week, hence my feeling of being early.

But earnings season for the financials is largely over. And now we know why JP moved their earnings report up!

And when the next ladle of stimulus money and/or TARP II is passed, I'll likely sell UYG.

[metalman]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Thanks, that's the first time I recall you ever writing anything about bonds.

Into what percentage were these two asset classes allocated?

you recall? our brains are unreliable... especially at your advanced age.

consider using the 'search' function...

search 'treasury bonds' for user 'metalman'

don't know why i bother.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

truth be told, i am a lazy fuck. i read other sites but they make my brain bleed with all the trade this and that shit, and all the elaborations, like spending $1000 on a course on how to grill a hamburger. it's for dickheads.

if you were here back in the day... remember? any asshole with a stupid dot com idea and a pal at goldman had $$$ in his pocket was gonna get RICH and drag the stupids along for the $$$ride$$$

you were in for that ride, right?

before that 1987?

after that 2008?

any money left?

ok, you know that green is keen. cramer will be all over this shit.

oh, but i have not answered your question. how have i 'played' it.

ok....

WENT TO 10YR TBONDS LATE 2000 AND GOLD IN 2001.

read my posts. do the math.

oh, i dunno. ej is my brain like schiff is mega's brain... but with out the blabity blah blah blah... yabiity, yabitty, yabba, yabba... or losses...

Thanks, that's the first time I recall you ever writing anything about bonds.

Into what percentage were these two asset classes allocated?

[metalman]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

metalman, you are in fine form, exceptionally obnoxious as usual. Remind me again just how you and EJ (your brain as far as I can tell) played the market from 2000 to 2007? Would you please write that for me again.

truth be told, i am a lazy fuck. i read other sites but they make my brain bleed with all the trade this and that shit, and all the elaborations, like spending $1000 on a course on how to grill a hamburger. it's for dickheads.

if you were here back in the day... remember? any asshole with a stupid dot com idea and a pal at goldman had $$$ in his pocket was gonna get RICH and drag the stupids along for the $$$ride$$$

you were in for that ride, right?

before that 1987?

after that 2008?

any money left?

ok, you know that green is keen. cramer will be all over this shit.

oh, but i have not answered your question. how have i 'played' it.

ok....

WENT TO 10YR TBONDS LATE 2000 AND GOLD IN 2001.

read my posts. do the math.

oh, i dunno. ej is my brain like schiff is mega's brain... but with out the blabity blah blah blah... yabiity, yabitty, yabba, yabba... or losses...

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

that, jim, is because the idea of chart 'patterns' is pure shit. this fact reveals itself as such according to chance, else all of the time and you'd be convinced.

i'm convinced you will carry the hope of charts favorable pattern shit to your grave, along with what's left of your money.

your wife must be a saint.

metalman, you are in fine form, exceptionally obnoxious as usual. Remind me again just how you and EJ (your brain as far as I can tell) played the market from 2000 to 2007? Would you please write that for me again.

[metalman]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

what appears to be a favorable chart pattern can turn to pure shit.

that, jim, is because the idea of chart 'patterns' is pure shit. this fact reveals itself as such according to chance, else all of the time and you'd be convinced.

i'm convinced you will carry the hope of charts favorable pattern shit to your grave, along with what's left of your money.

your wife must be a saint.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

clue, I know you don't look at charts, but for one with so much expertise on so many topics, a bit of chart knowledge wouldn't harm you.

If you looked at UYG you would have seen what is called a double razmataz wingo-dingo that is inverted and divergent all the way back to the stone age. With that pattern, only one who has some supreme knowledge in market timing, knowledge that is contrary to all known by mankind, would choose to go long such an ETF.

On a more serious note, you may be right. As you well know, many of the double ETF's can move like lightning in either direction, and what appears to be a favorable chart pattern can turn to pure shit.

Personally, I am sticking with a position is SKF, because I don't think whatever kicked the shit out of the financial stocks today will go away tomorrow, even though the major index futures are up as I write.

I had a chance to see a report from David Bensimon recently, dated back around the first of January, in which his favored Elliot wave counting projection was for 1000 or 1100 on the SPX by tomorrow (and I think it is safe to say that ain't gonna happen), and alternatively he reckoned using whatever are all his methods, that if 900 on SPX was violated (which it was back on 9JAN), then that violation in conjunction with a break of the upward trend of the SPX since the NOV lows, which has also happened in the last few days or so, would put his bearish scenario into play with a projection down to about 700 over the next 5-6 months. Now you know, clue, such stuff is pure Bs. so nothing to worry about there.

[swgprop]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

It is too early, I can feel it, but I've thrown in another 5% VAR for UYG at 2.81

I bailed out on my SKF today, 25% bump today, figured it was a good time to take some money off the table. Also somewhat expect an Obama rally but don't have the confidence to commit to the flip side like you are with UYG. Good luck.