HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[jpatter666]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

charliebrown, I got burned on SRS and FAZ myself. In short -- any daily leveraged ETF (if you see some like "returns 200% of the *daily* change in the underlying index") is only for short-term (days at best) usage. I learned this the hard way, sounds like you did too.

Mr. Market is a harsh teacher.

Given the uncertainties in this market, unless I'm completely sure on a stock, I use options now.

I've Dec 2009 FXI 40 puts and Dec 2009 SPY 95 puts to start. I'll see how those do and followup as I dare.

I'm still kicking myself for not shorting EJ when I had the chance. Down about 15%.

[charliebrown]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

FL and ASH good luck to both of you. I got burned really bad on SRS. Everything I see, read and hear about real estate says r.e. has more to go down especially commercial. I live in the western suburbs of chigago, I would estimate that 20 - 30% of retail property is vacant. There are also a lot of space available signs on office towers around me.

I bought SRS at 35, watched it go down to 22 on July 10. Went on vacation for a few weeks and boom its down to 11. IYR went up 35% in three weeks. wth?? Now if IYR returns to its 7/10, price SRS most likely moves to around 18. So I'm out $4.00 a share even with IYR moving back to the 7/10 price.

Anyhow, this thing has scared me off of reverse etf's. I still own SRS at 13 today. I'm writing agressive OTM calls on it. I think if I'm called out, I'm out. I only had 3% of my money in it fortunately. Thanks to itulip, and a few other contrarian web sites I pulled most of my money out before sept 2008. So i'm smarting over my 2% loss of capital.

I would not be surprised if there is some behind the scenes game going between the fed, treasury, banks, foreign central banks etc propping up the stock market in an attemp to boost consumer sentiment.

[cjppjc]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Got stopped out of PST a few days ago. Hard to believe. I'm about to put stops on the minors soon.:eek:

I can't imagine a life without mining stocks.

[flintlock]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

That speculative position from May was to go long EEV via a December 25th-dated call. In retrospect, it would have been better to buy puts against a long ETF than calls for a short ETF. Live and learn. In any case, this position has lost about 80% of its value. I'm staying in because this was always a play on a market crash by the end of the calendar year. The concept was to select as volatile a security as I could find, and wait for it to react to the realization that the world's economic problems aren't over. If that happens by the end of the year, I may yet make a profit... not that I'm holding my breath.

Today, I opened a larger speculative position against the S&P500. Steveaustin2006 pointed out that the leveraged short ETF SPXU was fairly newly-minted, and I thought it fit the bill to play a market downturn this fall. I entered with about 5% of my net worth. This will probably be the tuition I pay to learn not to futz around with leveraged ETFs anymore.

As of today, I am 10% cash, 5% speculation short the market, and 85% precious metals. The shift from my earlier 80/20 allocation between PM and cash is the result of opening the speculative position and a change in metal prices since my last post to this thread.

I plan to shift another 5% out of cash and into non-leveraged long-dated emerging markets puts shortly. So, when the market shoots skyward instead of cratering, this will be my opportunity to lose 10% of net worth.

I bought SPXU yesterday with some of my play money. Here's hoping this one works out better for you( and me!).

[ASH]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I'm planning to speculate short MSCI emerging markets index -- wagering about 1.6% net worth. The bulk of my assets remain roughly 80:20 PM:cash.

That speculative position from May was to go long EEV via a December 25th-dated call. In retrospect, it would have been better to buy puts against a long ETF than calls for a short ETF. Live and learn. In any case, this position has lost about 80% of its value. I'm staying in because this was always a play on a market crash by the end of the calendar year. The concept was to select as volatile a security as I could find, and wait for it to react to the realization that the world's economic problems aren't over. If that happens by the end of the year, I may yet make a profit... not that I'm holding my breath.

Today, I opened a larger speculative position against the S&P500. Steveaustin2006 pointed out that the leveraged short ETF SPXU was fairly newly-minted, and I thought it fit the bill to play a market downturn this fall. I entered with about 5% of my net worth. This will probably be the tuition I pay to learn not to futz around with leveraged ETFs anymore.

As of today, I am 10% cash, 5% speculation short the market, and 85% precious metals. The shift from my earlier 80/20 allocation between PM and cash is the result of opening the speculative position and a change in metal prices since my last post to this thread.

I plan to shift another 5% out of cash and into non-leveraged long-dated emerging markets puts shortly. So, when the market shoots skyward instead of cratering, this will be my opportunity to lose 10% of net worth.

[jtabeb]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

You certainly have nerves of steel to sit on 90% PMs

What are you talking about? I'm shitting in my pants, You guys holding T-bills and cash THAT takes nerves of steel.:rolleyes:

[Raz]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

O think you're "fibbing"

No I'm not. But I can see why someone would think that.

I was confident that my cash position was 52% or very close to it,
but I forgot that I'd sold Abbott Labs Monday morning. That bumped it up.

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

7/1/09 .

Jim, is it me or you made some upgrades to your spreadsheet? Looks great!

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I know this sounds like a broken record, but since we are all sharing...

Here's mine:

90% physical Au/Ag (50/50 by dollar amount invested)
5% uranium and silver miners
5% cash

Please note: (does not include the 20% guns, ammo and food, Too hard to recalculate the percentages, and not every one agrees that guns, ammo, and food are "investments").

JT, I thought it was the otherway around for you: 20% PMs and 90% Guns&Food ;).

You certainly have nerves of steel to sit on 90% PMs, but then again, who can blame you?

[jtabeb]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

"Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery". Yes, indeed.

[
I couldn't believe the cash percentage either, so I checked and rechecked but it still came out 53.681% !!!:eek:

Oh well, great minds think alike.;)

O think you're "fibbing"

[Raz]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Raz, not only you copied my carefully crafted allocation "formating", but you also did the same with my position in cash down to the 1/10 of one percent (at 53.7%).

What is the saying again? It has something to do with imitation and Flattery...

"Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery". Yes, indeed.

I copied your table because (1) I liked it, and (2) it was easier than building my own!
I couldn't believe the cash percentage either, so I checked and rechecked but it still came out 53.681% !!!:eek:

Oh well, great minds think alike.;)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?



7/1/09 .

[jtabeb]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I know this sounds like a broken record, but since we are all sharing...

Here's mine:

90% physical Au/Ag (50/50 by dollar amount invested)
5% uranium and silver miners
5% cash

Please note: (does not include the 20% guns, ammo and food, Too hard to recalculate the percentages, and not every one agrees that guns, ammo, and food are "investments").

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

And here is my latest allocation:

Cash	53.7%
Gold	14.9%
PGMs	2.6%
Oil/Gas equities	23.0%
Silver	0.6%
DUG	5.2%
Total:	100.0%

As soon as I have technical evidence of a top in crude oil I will double my position in DUG as a hedge against my oil & gas equities, which I plan to keep. (I'll also consider selling my shares of OXY; i've already sold APC.)

I may double the amount I hold in precious metals - as soon as I have evidence that any "rally" in the Bernanke Peso (US Dollar) has ended.

Cash means US Treasury Bills.

Raz, not only you copied my carefully crafted allocation "formating", but you also did the same with my position in cash down to the 1/10 of one percent (at 53.7%).

What is the saying again? It has something to do with imitation and Flattery...

[Raz]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

And here is my latest allocation:

Cash	53.7%
Gold	14.9%
PGMs	2.6%
Oil/Gas equities	23.0%
Silver	0.6%
DUG	5.2%
Total:	100.0%

As soon as I have technical evidence of a top in crude oil I will double my position in DUG as a hedge against my oil & gas equities, which I plan to keep. (I'll also consider selling my shares of OXY; i've already sold APC.)

I may double the amount I hold in precious metals - as soon as I have evidence that any "rally" in the Bernanke Peso (US Dollar) has ended.

Cash means US Treasury Bills.