HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

RRPIX, rises when the yield on the 30-year bond rises, leveraged to 125% of moves in the price of 30-year bond.

I initially opened an ~ 1% position in this on 9/20/07, thinking yields were breaking out and would continue to rise. WRONG?!

Added ~ 0.5% more the next day. Yields have steadily fallen since then, and I had about a 5% loss.

Today I put about 1% of my portfolio into more RRPIX. This makes that position 2.29% of my portfolio as of today.

If the prime-Poomist turns out correct, I think at some point bond yields will rise. Whether Bananake equals Greasespam in lowering rates again to 1%, we'll have to see, but at some point, I think bond rates will begin to more adequately reflect the US's inflation.

If Raja is following this, Raja, tell me how to pick the bottom in long-bond rates as you propose to do with the top whenever that comes?

If the secular move up in bond rates is a long as has been the secular move down, it will be a long wait for you to see the top rates again in Treasuries.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

From Canada , we must have a different perspective as our Loonie has gone through the roof vis a vis the USD.

My current holdings for a 12-15 year investment horizon:

10% CAD cash --short term deposits==> to take advangtage of any real significant short term market downturn.I will resume being close to 100% stocks when the crisis is over.Long only.

40% Claymore BRIC in CAD fund --Ticker : CBQ on Toronto S/E==> Longer term , these countries are/will decouple from the USA and Europe as their internal demand will replace current exports.

40% Jarislowski Fraser Canadian equities (Jarislowski is our Canadian proxy to your Warren B)


10% XOM in USD---does not need justification IMO.


I was at Bullion Vault August & September 07 (25-30% position and in a confused state of mind :eek: I must say) but the Gold gains were largely offsetted by our currency appreciation so I dropped it --too much headache for me to speculate about 2 things (price of PM and currency fluctuation) in one trade.

2 years ago , I had a good run with Canadian income trusts (energy and real estate) (Barclays BAI.UN on Toronto) and was lucky enough to sell before new fed regulations were voted.

My average returns are high teens--sometimes low twenties.

Good, Nicolasd,

Would you please start your own thread as I suggested to Bart right above. I encourage you to do this. I think it is good to put up what you think, but it will aid clarity if individuals keep their own threads.

Thanks for posting.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

EJ says gold is a bubble. It will go up, but then go down . . . and it's been said here many times that it's hard to catch a top.

What about taking that cash and buying long-term T-bonds at around 20% (interest rates predicted by EJ in KaPoom theory), then collecting 20% for the next 25 - 30 years (depending on when the Fed calls them)?
Of course, you'd have to try and catch the top with bonds, too.

Or maybe a combination of both . . . ride gold up, then buy T-bonds.

You should do that, Raja.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

1. I currently have a long term term core position in gems and precious metals that's around 25% of my total net worth. I own no real estate.

Last Friday morning my approximate futures positions, including leverage, were:
270% S&P short
100% cotton long
250% gold long


I exited both the S&P shorts and cotton trades this morning, partially due to a loss of power and 'net connections due to the wind issues in southern California, and partially due to TA factors.

2. The core holdings are primarily based on long term cycles like Dow/gold and also the extant negative real interest rates.

The trading positions are generally quite short term, averaging under two weeks. They're based on an eclectic combination of my own charts, fundamental and technical analysis.

My yearly rate of return since I started investing and trading full time in 2004 have never been lower than about 30%... and I do not recommend or want to encourage using the kind of leverage that I use to anyone, but it works for me.

Hey, Bart, get offa my thread.

Glad you put forth your thoughts and positioning.

I asked Fred, whoever that is, if he could start a Forum--somewhere--into which individuals who choose could put up their positions and whatever discussions they wish for whatever comments such might elicit.

So far he has not PM'd me back saying he would do that, perhaps he has done it, and I just haven't looked for a new Forum.

At any rate, I am serious in my suggestion, Bart, that I think it would be great if you could put the information you put in MY THREAD into a thread of YOUR OWN, and that way any on-going changes you wish to make will be consolidated and tidily in one place, and also perhaps keep any one thread from becoming too lengthy.

If we are lucky, one of the Freds, whoever they are, will see fit to begin a new Forum and put c1ue's comments, mine, and yours, Bart, into it, and hopefully some others too.

Here's hoping Fred is paying attention.

So, Bart, what happened before 2004, is it something like you were a secret agent and if you told us you'd have to kill us? (I can't get over how smiley I am today--it must have been that Brit u-tube video.)

What is a TA factor? Tight ass?

[Nicolasd]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

From Canada , we must have a different perspective as our Loonie has gone through the roof vis a vis the USD.

My current holdings for a 12-15 year investment horizon:

10% CAD cash --short term deposits==> to take advangtage of any real significant short term market downturn.I will resume being close to 100% stocks when the crisis is over.Long only.

40% Claymore BRIC in CAD fund --Ticker : CBQ on Toronto S/E==> Longer term , these countries are/will decouple from the USA and Europe as their internal demand will replace current exports.

40% Jarislowski Fraser Canadian equities (Jarislowski is our Canadian proxy to your Warren B)


10% XOM in USD---does not need justification IMO.


I was at Bullion Vault August & September 07 (25-30% position and in a confused state of mind :eek: I must say) but the Gold gains were largely offsetted by our currency appreciation so I dropped it --too much headache for me to speculate about 2 things (price of PM and currency fluctuation) in one trade.

2 years ago , I had a good run with Canadian income trusts (energy and real estate) (Barclays BAI.UN on Toronto) and was lucky enough to sell before new fed regulations were voted.

My average returns are high teens--sometimes low twenties.

[raja]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

My notion for holding so much cash is that at some point I expect to be able to buy PM's and commodity positions, and perhaps international funds at lower levels.

EJ says gold is a bubble. It will go up, but then go down . . . and it's been said here many times that it's hard to catch a top.

What about taking that cash and buying long-term T-bonds at around 20% (interest rates predicted by EJ in KaPoom theory), then collecting 20% for the next 25 - 30 years (depending on when the Fed calls them)?
Of course, you'd have to try and catch the top with bonds, too.

Or maybe a combination of both . . . ride gold up, then buy T-bonds.

[bart]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I'm beginning this thread because of one c1ue began in which his apparent intent is to share some, I presume, of his investment actions.

Personally, I find it interesting to know how some other people are invested. Why they are positioned as they may be? I appreciate c1ue's willingness to put forth what he does.

I also wonder when crossing one post or another here on iTulip when individuals appear to be espousing one theme or another, if they are throwing out an idea to see what sort of feedback it elicits, or do they have their money where their mouths are?

From time to time, EJ asks iTulipers for suggestions for questions that he might put to one "expert" or another. Were I talking to an expert, or Jose Seis-Dos Equis, about investing and could get truthful answers, I would ask two questions:

1. In what are you invested in percentages for positions?

2. What rationale do you have for each investment?

1. I currently have a long term term core position in gems and precious metals that's around 25% of my total net worth. I own no real estate.

Last Friday morning my approximate futures positions, including leverage, were:
270% S&P short
100% cotton long
250% gold long


I exited both the S&P shorts and cotton trades this morning, partially due to a loss of power and 'net connections due to the wind issues in southern California, and partially due to TA factors.



2. The core holdings are primarily based on long term cycles like Dow/gold and also the extant negative real interest rates.

The trading positions are generally quite short term, averaging under two weeks. They're based on an eclectic combination of my own charts, fundamental and technical analysis.

My yearly rate of return since I started investing and trading full time in 2004 have never been lower than about 30%... and I do not recommend or want to encourage using the kind of leverage that I use to anyone, but it works for me.

[Tim T]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Thanks that helps me understand your decisions. I am aware these allocations were not meant to serve as a guide. Everyones allocations are different cause of the risk they are willing to take. I was trying to learn what you thought was happening out there which I can now see better from your response.

I also am concerned that Ka is still a threat and worried about an equity crash that brings down PM's and brings up the dollar. In my case I am just going to see what happens. Should be fascinating and unpleasant all at the same time.
-Tim

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on portfolio allocations. In trying to see what your bias is regarding the Ka and poom with respect to cash, equities, and pm's I realize that I/anyone is very limited at interpreting your outlook based on a static look. I thought your recent sale information was interesting.

You ditched the positively correlated items that relate to consumption (GDX XLE) but kept the pm's. I guess when you back off of the inflation plays it has to first be the energy/mining consumption stuff and you bias keeping the pm's cause the ever present vulnerability of the dollar? As pm's and commodities have risen over the last several years have you been decreasing those positions and going to cash and or increasing the equity shorts? I don't mean to ask so many questions but it seems the static view of a portfolio is difficult to interpret. Just as an example, one could argue 5% in pm's is too low given the inflation risks but if the 50% cash allocation is cash that was largely profit made selling off a once larger pm position then being critical of your current 5% pm allocation is not necessarily warranted.

Thanks for any insight you might offer,
-Tim T

My thoughts on portfolio allocation is that I am sure a lot of people are better diversified than I.

I'm not sold on the opinion that we are past the Ka yet--though we certainly may well be.

I am not someone given to longterm outlooks, I'm 66 and I may not have whatever is longterm to see what develops. I think markets are going to go up and down along the way of any journey. I am too impatient to make longterm bets and then go away and think about something else for years.

My PM position is not very large and if KA is still ahead of us, and I am not at all sure it is, I think PM's may go down. Despite the recent highs, I don't see evidence of a lot of enthusiasm for PM's though I may not be looking in the right places to see it.

I got out of the stock ETF's because I still think stocks are going to go down, and I had 10.8% profit in XLE after 7 weeks, and 10.82% profits in GDX after half the position for 11 weeks and half for 5 weeks.

Unless one is a momentum investor, which I am not, commodities and PM presently have had good runups, and I have no inclination to jump into buying more now. My cash is not from liquidating large profit positions, but is just sitting there waiting to buy somethings that do not seem near their highs.

TimT, I didn't put up my portfolio to serve as a guide to how I think anyone else ought to be positioned. I put it up because I think it is interesting to see how individuals are invested. You can put your positioning up if you wish in another thread.

In a while I probably will get around to commenting up a couple of bad moves I made over the last year.

When I change anything in my positions, I intend to put it up.

[Tim T]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on portfolio allocations. In trying to see what your bias is regarding the Ka and poom with respect to cash, equities, and pm's I realize that I/anyone is very limited at interpreting your outlook based on a static look. I thought your recent sale information was interesting.

You ditched the positively correlated items that relate to consumption (GDX XLE) but kept the pm's. I guess when you back off of the inflation plays it has to first be the energy/mining consumption stuff and you bias keeping the pm's cause the ever present vulnerability of the dollar? As pm's and commodities have risen over the last several years have you been decreasing those positions and going to cash and or increasing the equity shorts? I don't mean to ask so many questions but it seems the static view of a portfolio is difficult to interpret. Just as an example, one could argue 5% in pm's is too low given the inflation risks but if the 50% cash allocation is cash that was largely profit made selling off a once larger pm position then being critical of your current 5% pm allocation is not necessarily warranted.

Thanks for any insight you might offer,
-Tim T

[jk]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

My inverse positions are not going to be held with the same conviction I hold HSGFX.

I have not reached the same level of worry that I guess you have that makes me ready to put 20% into PM's--and perhaps I am very wrong.

i'm don't think that worry is my only motivation for holding pms. fact is that my pm's have been a major source of fairly steady return for my portfolio for years.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

jim, it seems to me your major risk is the world returning to business as usual. in that scenario, you'll earn a money market return on your cash, earn a bit on your pm positions but lose a bit more on your inverse positions. this won't be a disaster, but will feel like you're falling behind inflation. if pm's don't sell off significantly you're going to feel underexposed to that sector. [if that worries you, you might buy some long dated calls on gdx as a cheap hedge.] in a big sell-off you'll be able to scoop up bargains. in a sideways ranging situation your inverse positions will get chewed up by [what i call] "friction."

My inverse positions are not going to be held with the same conviction I hold HSGFX.

I have not reached the same level of worry that I guess you have that makes me ready to put 20% into PM's--and perhaps I am very wrong.

[jk]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

jim, it seems to me your major risk is the world returning to business as usual. in that scenario, you'll earn a money market return on your cash, earn a bit on your pm positions but lose a bit more on your inverse positions. this won't be a disaster, but will feel like you're falling behind inflation. if pm's don't sell off significantly you're going to feel underexposed to that sector. [if that worries you, you might buy some long dated calls on gdx as a cheap hedge.] in a big sell-off you'll be able to scoop up bargains. in a sideways ranging situation your inverse positions will get chewed up by [what i call] "friction."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Glad this thread is up.

I've accepted that this is either too complex for anyone to figure out, or at least that I'm not smart enough to tell who knows and who doesn't. But I'm convinced that what comes next is going to be dramatic.

If so, wouldn't Jim's strategy, splitting the portfolio long dollars and long PMs/FX, be a pretty good plan? One of those seems set to appreciate dramatically vs equities in the event of Ka or Poom (and both, alternately, if KaPoom). Yes?

Also... are TIPS considered to be shorting dollars?

TIA

Once you guys figure out what I am doing, perhaps I'll have enough insight to put up something that seems profound.

My basic idea behind HSGFX is that it is a good, relatively safe investment that I expect to hold for a long time. I owe my awareness of HSGFX to jk and to him I say "Thank you" for making me, and anyone else who reads iTulip back far enough, aware of it.

My notion for holding so much cash is that at some point I expect to be able to buy PM's and commodity positions, and perhaps international funds at lower levels. Unless it will never happen again, I expect US equity markets to correct more than 10%, as they have yet to do since beginning the upleg in Oct, 2002.

I have the yen position because the yen is so shorted via the carry trade.

[WDCRob]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

that's how i read it too. he's 55% in u.s. dollar cash, and the 20% in hsgfx is a dollar-based position.

Glad this thread is up.

I've accepted that this is either too complex for anyone to figure out, or at least that I'm not smart enough to tell who knows and who doesn't. But I'm convinced that what comes next is going to be dramatic.

If so, wouldn't Jim's strategy, splitting the portfolio long dollars and long PMs/FX, be a pretty good plan? One of those seems set to appreciate dramatically vs equities in the event of Ka or Poom (and both, alternately, if KaPoom). Yes?

Also... are TIPS considered to be shorting dollars?

TIA