HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Tuesday, FOMC cut discount rate 0.75% from 3% to 2.25%.

I closed all my inverse ETF positions: SRS, DXD, SDS, QID, & TWM.

I opened ~1% positions in DDM, SSO, QLD, UWM, & UYG.

After a 3% drop from Monday's intraday high in FXY, I closed that ~10% position this afternoon.

I also reopened the agricultural commoditiy ET*'s DBA and RJA at ~ 1% positions each.

The equity markets' reaction today certainly did not negate the indicators I mentioned last night that suggested some sort of a bottom should be occurring in here. They may fail next time, but not this time.

Additionally today was a clear +90% up day in volume and points on the NYSE. I take this a being bullish, though it has to prove to be so.

Below is a comment from Preiur du Plessis Postcards from this weekend.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...2008/#more-674

Jeffrey Saut (Raymond James): “Kiss and tell” week for stock markets
“… last Thursday qualified as yet another 90% Down Day (volume and points lost were greater than 90%). As the astute Lowry’s service notes, ‘This was the 2nd 90% Down Day within four trading days, and the 7th within the past three months. Past experience shows that 90% Down Days are typically followed by one of three patterns: (1)a 90% Up Day occurring quickly after the 90% Down Day would suggest that a sustained rally lasting about two or more months is likely; (2) the absence of a 90% Up Day during a snap-back rally would suggest that a brief recovery rally lasting 2 to 7 trading days would most likely be followed by new lows in price and additional 90% Down Days. Such rallies should be used to sell stocks; (3) the lack of any snap-back rally within a few days after the last 90% Down Day would suggest a sustained market decline is underway that will probably produce additional 90% Down Days.’
Source: Jeffrey Saut, Raymond James, March 10, 2008.

What we've experienced on the NYSE has been nine uninterrupted -90% down days beginning 12/11/07 and the last was this past Friday. It is option (1) above that suggests the situation in which we may now be. Notice I wrote "suggests." We'll have to wait and see how it play's out. I took an 11.5K hit today rearranging myself from short to long. Current drawdown so far is-1.31%

[Starving Steve]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I DON'T LIKE ANYTHING To-DAY.

I am sort of stuck with things that are least bad because I have no place to go with money.

I have about 5% in physical survival gold, mostly U.S. $20 gold pieces and Maple Leafs, also US Eagles and Mexico 50peso 1947 gold centenarios. The future of this will probably be down, even with inflation.

I have a free and clear house in Canada which will go down in value.

I have a beaver bucks in Canada in oil and gas trusts which will go down in value short-term. But in the long-term with the eco-frauds dictating policy, oil will run-out, and these trusts might go up in value.

I have California general obligation municipal bonds which will go up in value --- except that California is bankrupt. So my bonds really have no long-term value, especially with the US dollar turning into a peso. Happily, these are short-term bonds.

I have short-term FDIC insured CDs in US banks. I also have money in credit unions that have FEDERAL deposit insurance thru NCUA. These investments yield a negative rate of real return.

I also have money on deposit in I-bonds sitting at the US Federal Reserve in a numbered account. Since these bonds yield almost no real rate of return, they are pathetic. But at least, they are safe.

I also have money sitting in the Vanguard Money Market Fund. These funds in US dollars are being turned into pesos, and the fund is a risk unless SIPIC covers it, as it should. But theory and reality are two different things.

So, with the idiots running the Fed and the other central banks, I am worried. I don't like anything to-day. NOTHING.

And the feel of this is like a depression.

My HOPE is that this will be a re-play of the 1930s, but it may not be.... It could be a re-play of Argentina in recent decades, or Brazil, or Mexico, or Peru, or Chile. And that is my worry.:eek:

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Sorry for an amatuer question. Is SKF a put with a deadline? If not, you can hold longer?

I'm also waiting and considering whether to buy some SKF, thought that the market will bounce up a little more with that rate cut thing. :confused:

Please don't apologize to me for any questions. SKF is a Profunds inverse ETF that moves 200% inversely to the DJ US Financials Index. Here is a link etfconnect.com that I think most people find useful to start looking at ETF. Also check profunds.com, there are a ton of these things, way more than I am able to keep up with. Proshares, HLDRS, iShares, Vipers, PowerShares to name a few,

You can buy and sell SKF same as you buy and sell a stock. Get back if that doesn't help get you going. Be glad you didn't buy it yesterday.

[raja]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Sorry for an amatuer question. Is SKF a put with a deadline? If not, you can hold longer?

I'm also waiting and considering whether to buy some SKF, thought that the market will bounce up a little more with that rate cut thing. :confused:

Yes, there is no deadline.
Unfortunately, I'll have to wait for it to go down a bunch before I at least break even. However, my previous two trades were successes, so I can't complain.

If I hadn't been swayed by Schiff, I would have probably waited until about now to buy in again. I'm considered doubling my bet by buying again soon.

Gold went down today, so I increased my position in GLD by 25% when it hit 97.0.

[touchring]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Sorry for an amatuer question. Is SKF a put with a deadline? If not, you can hold longer?

I'm also waiting and considering whether to buy some SKF, thought that the market will bounce up a little more with that rate cut thing. :confused:

I foolishly bought into Schift's Black Monday prognostication, loaded up on shorts like SKF, and now they are tanking.
Since I believe that the market will eventually drop -- in a big way -- so I'm resisting the urge to sell now and absorb some losses.
Also, there may be some bad news like another bank failure that causes the market to drop sharply -- the idea being that people will think "even after the big Fed cut, look what happened, we better get outa Dodge."
But like you say . . . who knows? :rolleyes:

[raja]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Monday, 3/17/08. I closed my ~3.5% position in SKF today for profit of 4.75% in 14 days, and closed ~2.25% of an ~3.5% position in DXD for 1.35% profit in 14 days. If I could make myself overcome greed and go ahead and take profits when things are up fairly well without subconsciously thinking "this baby may go higher," I might get some decent gains. But I don't know if I can overcome that tendancy.

So what's next with our buddies at the FED and their unending commitment to torpedo the value of the bonar?

There's the old saw of "don't fight the Fed." But so far since the first cut on 9/18/07, there is no mistake that not fighting the Fed and maintaining any serious long positions in equities would have been disastrous at least for me.

The equity markets are really oversold with regard to breadth now and have been such for 6 market days and despite the 400$ pop in the DJI last Tuesday.

The CBOE equity put/call ratio tonight was 1.35, 1.16 yesterday, and 1.12 on 3/6/08. The 1.35 ratio is the highest I have with data back to 10/1/02. The 10-day EMA of that ratio was 0.998 tonight--the highest reading in my data. This is extreme bearishness and also the AAII and II polls from last week are at extremes that generally exist at or near bottoms.

Coupling all this together it makes a reasonable case not to continue my existing short positions too long into tomorrow. I would like for the market to futz around until the FED releases the results of its carefully considered deliberations.

Longer term, perhaps 8-10 weeks, based on what I read and the data I try to follow, I think there will be yet another retest of these last new closing lows last Monday and the retesting of them that occurred today. Will there be a rally in here, and will new lows still be established in days to months? No one I believe knows, but I'm betting "yes" to the first query, and probably "yes' to the second.

I foolishly bought into Schift's Black Monday prognostication, loaded up on shorts like SKF, and now they are tanking.
Since I believe that the market will eventually drop -- in a big way -- so I'm resisting the urge to sell now and absorb some losses.
Also, there may be some bad news like another bank failure that causes the market to drop sharply -- the idea being that people will think "even after the big Fed cut, look what happened, we better get outa Dodge."
But like you say . . . who knows? :rolleyes:

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Monday, 3/17/08. I closed my ~3.5% position in SKF today for profit of 4.75% in 14 days, and closed ~2.25% of an ~3.5% position in DXD for 1.35% profit in 14 days. If I could make myself overcome greed and go ahead and take profits when things are up fairly well without subconsciously thinking "this baby may go higher," I might get some decent gains. But I don't know if I can overcome that tendancy.

So what's next with our buddies at the FED and their unending commitment to torpedo the value of the bonar?

There's the old saw of "don't fight the Fed." But so far since the first cut on 9/18/07, there is no mistake that not fighting the Fed and maintaining any serious long positions in equities would have been disastrous at least for me.

The equity markets are really oversold with regard to breadth now and have been such for 6 market days and despite the 400$ pop in the DJI last Tuesday.

The CBOE equity put/call ratio tonight was 1.35, 1.16 yesterday, and 1.12 on 3/6/08. The 1.35 ratio is the highest I have with data back to 10/1/02. The 10-day EMA of that ratio was 0.998 tonight--the highest reading in my data. This is extreme bearishness and also the AAII and II polls from last week are at extremes that generally exist at or near bottoms.

Coupling all this together it makes a reasonable case not to continue my existing short positions too long into tomorrow. I would like for the market to futz around until the FED releases the results of its carefully considered deliberations.

Longer term, perhaps 8-10 weeks, based on what I read and the data I try to follow, I think there will be yet another retest of these last new closing lows last Monday and the retesting of them that occurred today. Will there be a rally in here, and will new lows still be established in days to months? No one I believe knows, but I'm betting "yes" to the first query, and probably "yes' to the second.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Last week was a hellish week, especially Tueday, if one was short the equity indices, real estate, and financials as I was and still am. My portfolios lost 23.5K on Tuesday, god bless the Fed, but by week's end I had a couple of hundred bonars loss, not including inflation.

I have worried since Friday, that the US markets may bounce perhaps significantly in here. I tend to be lulled into thinking that what happens in Asia spreads westward, but that does always happen, so despite the seeming bump in Asia that all this US "liquidity injection" isn't helping, I hold hope that it won't help tomorrow, this week, this month, this quarter, this year, and that things actually get so bad our gifted officials at Bank, Treasury, and White House fear to be seen in public, and most of all stop being interviewed and stop spewing lies upon lies. The dudes have no shame.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Thank you, jk, for your perspective. Truly, it helps knowing The Brain does not disagree.

As I wrote late last night, I put in my orders and when I checked this morning I had added to SKF ~2.2%, SRS ~2.2%, and ~1.1% each to DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM. For once something I bought did not immediately go down.

The markets are oversold using NYSE and Nasdaq A/D issue and volume data, but today according to my data was the 8th 90% down day in volume and points on the NYSE since 12/11/07. That suggests to me there is a lot of fear in the markets, but I am not intepreting this to suggest any sort of a serious bottom is in place. The CBOE Equity and OEX put/call data are also suggesting at least a bounce in here, and it would not surprise me to see that begin in the next 2-4 days. If the markets bounce, I don't think it will carry far. For a more bullish perspective check out this post by santafe2 from Monday morning before the markets opened 3/10/08.

Personally, I don't think there is probably a snowball's chance in hell that the highs from the summer or fall are likely to be tested this year despite it being a presidential election year and despite any lame efforts by anyone in politics or in banking, Fed or otherwise, to turn the markets around.

The breadth data were worse on 7/27/07 than they are now and the SPX subsequently gained ~40$ over eight sessions, but in four additional days was 152 points lower than it was on 7/27/07, and this latter low of 1406 marked the August bottom. I'm not confident the markets are going lower, but that is where my bets are placed.

[jk]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I appreciate your comment. I expect in more ways I can imagine that your perspective must differ from that of an American (you are a Canadian resident as I understand) and I presume the basis for all your investments must the the CAD (and I am not trying to get into your personal affairs here). It amazes me that you contribute all that you do here with what seems to me to be the perspective of an US based person.

I keep thinking about this currency issue, and the things I have become aware of here on iTulip, and these currency plays--invest in things like the FX* ETF's--are really not any different from anything else anyone ?smart? might be investing in, i.e. any instrument that at some point in the future hopefully will have returned a lot of bonars for us US based investors (bettors). Is there anything about my thinking on this with which you, GRG, or anyone else disagrees? I almost feel as though that is a stupid question, but it seems "everyone" (whoever that is) is writing that the best place to be are in certain foreign currencies, commodities, PM's. I don't see the difference in end points between any of those and anything else which may in the future provide whoever owns them with more US dollars.

I've looked at FXF and the others (owning only FXY myself) and as I noted previously they all look to be up too much for me at least to enter and the same for most commoditiy ETF's and PM's as I evaluate them. That is why I am long so relatively many short ETF's.

And anyone who wishes to respond, please do waste time writing about risks--because I think everything that exists right now is super risky.

i'm with you, jim. either put money into anti-dollar plays or, if they're too dear, put it into anti-equity plays. the crisis is centered in the credit system, and so far the equity markets have been, to my mind at least, relatively sanguine. that should mean there's more value in anti-equity plays right now.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim: For the first time in many, many years I am coming around to the feeling that one may not want to be long anything, other than core precious metals and select currencies (Swiss, Yen, Loonie, maybe Singapore Dollar), Adding to bear market positions might make the most sense as the flee bonar move now.

The ECB stuff last week had such an effect on me that I bought some FXP (short China) mid-week, so our thinking at the macro level would appear similar. The dollar is getting hammered again this morning in Asia. This really does look like its Newton's first law being practiced on a steep incline.

I appreciate your comment. I expect in more ways I can imagine that your perspective must differ from that of an American (you are a Canadian resident as I understand) and I presume the basis for all your investments must the the CAD (and I am not trying to get into your personal affairs here). It amazes me that you contribute all that you do here with what seems to me to be the perspective of an US based person.

I keep thinking about this currency issue, and the things I have become aware of here on iTulip, and these currency plays--invest in things like the FX* ETF's--are really not any different from anything else anyone ?smart? might be investing in, i.e. any instrument that at some point in the future hopefully will have returned a lot of bonars for us US based investors (bettors). Is there anything about my thinking on this with which you, GRG, or anyone else disagrees? I almost feel as though that is a stupid question, but it seems "everyone" (whoever that is) is writing that the best place to be are in certain foreign currencies, commodities, PM's. I don't see the difference in end points between any of those and anything else which may in the future provide whoever owns them with more US dollars.

I've looked at FXF and the others (owning only FXY myself) and as I noted previously they all look to be up too much for me at least to enter and the same for most commoditiy ETF's and PM's as I evaluate them. That is why I am long so relatively many short ETF's.

And anyone who wishes to respond, please do waste time writing about risks--because I think everything that exists right now is super risky.

[GRG55]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

After I ran across a radio interview tonight (Sunday) which I put up in the Bearish Tread I decided to go ahead and add to my -200% short positions in SRS, SKF, DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM, and I put in my market orders to buy in the morning. In doing this I am also swayed that the Asia market are down tonight as I have followed them, though I am not at all convinced how they do tonight or any night foretell how the US will do tomorrow. We'll see.

Jim: For the first time in many, many years I am coming around to the feeling that one may not want to be long anything, other than core precious metals and select currencies (Swiss, Yen, Loonie, maybe Singapore Dollar), Adding to bear market positions might make the most sense as the flee bonar move now.

The ECB stuff last week had such an effect on me that I bought some FXP (short China) mid-week, so our thinking at the macro level would appear similar. The dollar is getting hammered again this morning in Asia. This really does look like its Newton's first law being practiced on a steep incline.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

After I ran across a radio interview tonight (Sunday) which I put up in the Bearish Tread I decided to go ahead and add to my -200% short positions in SRS, SKF, DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM, and I put in my market orders to buy in the morning. In doing this I am also swayed that the Asia market are down tonight as I have followed them, though I am not at all convinced how they do tonight or any night foretell how the US will do tomorrow. We'll see.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

3/3/08 Monday. I opened ~ 1% positions in SKF, SRS, DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM. These all move -200% to the underlying indices.

3/4/08 Tuesday. Have you ever imagined a conversation that might take place in one of these big crowded clubs where everyone is partying like there is no tomorrow, and one guy asks another do I smell smoke, and the other says nah, keep partying, and then another guy says well, maybe I do smell smoke, and the second guy says nah, keep partying. What woud you do? I hope I would go outside and discuss it further.

I sort of "read" the impression on iTulip as more than one or two people are wondering about whether they smell smoke with precious metals. I surmise the collective wisdom is, "Nah, keep partying."

Today I liquidated all my positions in GLD, SLV, GTU, RJZ, RJA, DBA, NLR, DIG, and GEX all of which are in an IRA so no tax consequences.

I maintained my CEF and GTU in a personal account.

I added 1% today to DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM, thus bringing those positions to about 2% each in my total portfolio.

Note I did not open up any short positions against the PM's. I did something similar in November 1999. Liquidated a lot of long stuff, and went short some indices with some inverse mutual funds and was hurt badly in a very short period of time. So I don't know where gold, silver and the miners represented by GTU are going next, but they have been going up too strongly for my tastes. I noted elsewhere tonight Platinum is up 64+% in 4 months and silver is up 51% in 3 months. I can live with my profits that I locked in today. The longest any of the positions had been open was an original position of 1.3% held since mid-July in GLD. Everything else was opened since December 2007.

I had a 0.5% position in GEX (global alternative energy ETF) which I sold today. That fund has moved rather closely to how the major equity indices have moved. It's behavior so far does not show that it is moving counter to the rest of the equity market. I don't know how good a proxy, if at all, this fund is for the iTulip's "next bubble mentality," but were it to be even close to representative of such a proxy, it suggests to me that alternative energy is not ready to move up now. That is my impression.

It's late, maybe tomorrow I'll put in my gains and losses on the positions I liquidated yesterday and today (Tuesday 3/4).

Above is where I left off last week.

For whatever it's worth, to address a point brought up by WDCRob. Here are the positions with profits/loss from sales on 3/4 last week.
____________GAIN _____% GAIN/LOSS

GEX	(405.05)	-8.44%
NLR	305.110	3.24%
DIG	751.580	7.34%
GLD	7,358.490	34.51%
SLV	5,514.680	38.76%
GDX	1,292.910	6.54%
RJA	1,610.920	15.98%
RJZ	2,294.910	23.76%
DBA	2,514.300	25.41%
	21,237.85	19.41%
	109409.65

The 19.41% is the total gain or the total original capital of ~109K. The longest ago any portion that comprised the final positon of those above was bought 7/19/07, a bit of the GLD position back then. Everything else was bought between 12/4/07 and 2/13/08.

For fun?, the annual percentage gain if figured as though all portions of all positions were bought on 7/19/07 and sold 3/04/08 would be 30.9%. If the actual annual percentage gains on all the positions were figured and averaged it would be even higher. None of the ways to compute this for periods of holdings less than one year are as important as is the actual gain or loss simply put up for the realized gain/loss as I choose to think about it.

3/7/2008	POSITION	% INVESTD	NOW GAIN	% GAIN	ALLOCATION
DJ US REALESTATE	SRS	1.07%	687	6.01%
DJ US FINANCIALS	SKF	1.18%	1,069	8.72%
DOW	DXD	1.87%	879	4.34%
NDX	QID	1.84%	425	2.10%
SPX	SDS	1.86%	825	4.10%
RUT	TWM	1.89%	1,166	5.80%	9.71%
GOLD & SILVER	CEF	0.86%	3,660	60.60%
PM MINING	GDX	0.00%	0	0.00%
GOLD	GLD	0.00%	0	0.00%
SILVER	SLV	0.00%	0	0.00%
GOLD	GTU	1.30%	4,994	51.97%	8.32%
METALS	RJZ	0.00%	0	0.00%
COMM AGRIC	DBA	0.00%	0	0.00%
COMM AGRIC	RJA	0.00%	0	0.00%	0.00%
GLBL ALT ENERGY	GEX	0.00%	0	0.00%
NUCLEAR	NLR	0.00%	0	0.00%
DJ US OIL GAS	DIG	0.00%	0	0.00%	0.00%
YEN	FXY	10.29%	14,714	14.44%
YIELD ON 30YR-BOND	RRPIX	3.19%	-807	-2.15%
HEDGED EQUITY	HSGFX	18.76%	9,103	4.50%	32.24%
		44.11%	36,716	7.95%
	BOLD GREEN SYMBOLS = MOVE +200% OF RESPECTIVE INDICES
	BOLD RED SYMBOLS = MOVE -200% OF RESPECTIVE INDICES

Table above is where I stood Friday. What's next? I don't know, nor do I believe anyone actually does.

Using Paul Desmond's 90% up or down predominance in volume and points on the NYSE, there now have been seven 90% down days in volume and points on the NYSE beginning 12/11/07, followed by 12/27, 1/04/08, 1/15, 2/05, 2/29, and on 3/06. I may be wrong in stating this, but I don't believe there has ever such a short period of so many such negative days. These days suggest more down trending.

The markets are reaching an oversold state again with regard to the advances/declines, new highs/new lows, McClellan Oscillators for NYSE and Nasdaq, and the 19-day EMA of the $VGY. Thursday the CBOE Equity put/call ratio was 1.12 and a 10-day EMA of that was .8666, the highest it has been since 8/10/04 which was two days prior to a significant bottom.

Looking for some upside equity market movement in here doesn't seem far-fetched to me right now, and it may occur.

I would like it if the markets continue down for some more to offer me a little "padding" for the profits I quickly picked up in the six -200% positions I opened last week. Too bad, I cannot sell those on Monday and actually realize the dollar amount of whatever their annualized gains were through Friday.

I wrote somewhere here today I may add to my SKF and SRS Monday after reading some opinions about where the Financials and Commerical Real Estate markets are yet to go. I'll just have to see.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

how does this thread keep coming back to the top?????

There are some posters here whose comments I don't care to attempt to ferret through. When I come upon such, in order to get it out of the New Posts list, I hit the > by the poster's name, bring it up, then do Ctrl-home and hit New Posts again and continue to those of interest to me. No big deal for the nimble-fingered typeist.