HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Thailandnotes -

You wait until you see a trend chart for two inversly correlated assets that shows a long progression in one direction, and then what looks like a clear break in trend. Just like the above chart. That may not be your trigger to act, but then at least you watch the further development of those trends closely. I can't abide sitting scrunched up watching trend charts all the time, but Jim seems to have infinite patience for it. Some people do.

Further to the above, it helps to search for and spend money on the best short term tactical trader services you can locate. Better if its' two or three of the very best you can locate. If you are playing around with a half a million dollars or even just 100K, that's awfully cheap cost to buy a 'provisional compass' to complement your own conclusions, no? Jim reads Richard Russell - well, I think even Richard Russell is talking about a clear potential for a strong rally in the principal indexes at this time? Why ignore that and go short instead precisely when a veteran like Richard Russell is getting suspicious of the continuance of a bear market?

In the above 'home made methodology', you then you incorporate and cross reference all the input from the best short term market tacticians you could find, with the simple fact that two trends, gold in one direction and SPX in the other direction, have been trending that way already for a good long while - they would look in a chart just like these two assets classes, which are drawing inversely to each other, and both seem to have made at least 'noticeable' trend changes in the past few weeks. Put it all in the blender, set the blender on the 'high' setting, and whip it all up into a nice cafe-latte.

Of course, nothing is 'assured', but such an absolute observation is useless in the markets because it's merely academic.

Even if you conclude you can know nothing about anything in the markets as a certainty, you do know it's perfectly common-sense to spot when you are already well along in a trend. If you are a prospective buyer, you resist the temptation to buy - and if you are a prospective seller, you resist the temptation to sell - precisely when you can notice that you are well along in a trend. Why? Because your move would be late, no?

Does this sound like plain common sense or not?

Lukester, that is a good answer, and for my likes--which I don't expect to mean diddly-squat to you, you only wrote and made us read one useless sentence. Perhaps you are getting better as I regard things--this comment too is rather useless, sorry readers.

Thailandnotes' question was very pertinent, and I don't think you or anyone can answer it, but you put up your answer and that is commendable.

You would have me, us believe making these decisions aren't difficult. My experience is that they are all difficult decisions as to when to buy and sell. You should retire a very wealthy man, or why even work now if this stuff is easy?

I have noted a lot of Bullish Information that is of course bullish since 3/10/08 lows. Those guys may be correct, and then there is EJ and iTulip which generally exudes bearishness. Incidentally, I quit subscibing to Russell a couple of months ago.

For anyone else and your convenience I wish I could put a chart in here, but you'll have to get along with a link--which I hope you'll look at. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SP...96&a=127347583

This is of the SPX and of pertinence I think is the range since 1/22/08 bounded above by 1386-1396, and below by 1257-1270. It would go along with your apparent orientation for a rally and a lot or all of the posts I referenced above if the SPX can get above 1400. If there is a retest of the lows that holds, then that does not wipe out such a rally scenario. However, if the lows are broken, then I'm going to give EJ's scenario preference here. If the upper bounds are broken, I'll probably play it to the upside, depending upon how breadth and volume data look to me.

I wish I had a better chart and reference but this one gets the point over of a "bear market" call or as it is labeled by Carl Swenlin a "long-term sell signal." 17 week EMA (exponential moving average) drops beneath 43 week EMA. That is depicted in the second panel here and here (in this second instance he is using 50 and 200 day EMA crossovers--50 day EMA crosses from above to beneath 200 day EMA. In the second panel you can see when these crossovers occur then tend not to reverse quickly). The time that the present equity markets' declines have gone on since July or October depending upon exact index is not long. It may be different this time, I don't know.

Now to your GLD reference. I'm looking at this chart. If anyone looks at the drop from 72 to 55.05 from May to June in 2006, and bought by chance at that low, it was until October when price went to 55.55 before an RSI buy signal was generated which it generally was in October 2006. That was not a bad entry point but still required a lot of patience before exceeding May 2006 peak which happened around September 2007. The current pullback in GLD has been short lived and what has happened so far may be all that will happen, that is, it will just go up and up from here, but I am not buying into it yet. I sold my GLD, SLV, and GDX on 3/4/08, and unless they continue up from where they are not without more correction and get back to where I sold them, and I like the charts I will buy them back--right now I would be down an additional 3.8K were I still holding those three postions.

If I sold whatever at precisely the wrong times--that note above is what started this discourse, time will bear that out, and if you didn't, and you are correct time will bear that out. It must play out, we both have apparently made bets on the future. I always do so with some trepidation as seldom do I see anything in investing as a "no-brainer."

Thank you, Lukester, for your comments.

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

How do you know something has made "75 % of its move?" How do you know that 75 % will not turn out to be 30?

Thailandnotes -

You wait until you see a trend chart for two inversly correlated assets that shows a long progression in one direction, and then what looks like a clear break in trend. Just like the above chart. That may not be your trigger to act, but then at least you watch the further development of those trends closely. I can't abide sitting scrunched up watching trend charts all the time, but Jim seems to have infinite patience for it. Some people do.

Further to the above, it helps to search for and spend money on the best short term tactical trader services you can locate. Better if its' two or three of the very best you can locate. If you are playing around with a half a million dollars or even just 100K, that's awfully cheap cost to buy a 'provisional compass' to complement your own conclusions, no? Jim reads Richard Russell - well, I think even Richard Russell is talking about a clear potential for a strong rally in the principal indexes at this time? Why ignore that and go short instead precisely when a veteran like Richard Russell is getting suspicious of the continuance of a bear market?

In the above 'home made methodology', you then you incorporate and cross reference all the input from the best short term market tacticians you could find, with the simple fact that two trends, gold in one direction and SPX in the other direction, have been trending that way already for a good long while - they would look in a chart just like these two assets classes, which are drawing inversely to each other, and both seem to have made at least 'noticeable' trend changes in the past few weeks. Put it all in the blender, set the blender on the 'high' setting, and whip it all up into a nice cafe-latte.

Of course, nothing is 'assured', but such an absolute observation is useless in the markets because it's merely academic.

Even if you conclude you can know nothing about anything in the markets as a certainty, you do know it's perfectly common-sense to spot when you are already well along in a trend. If you are a prospective buyer, you resist the temptation to buy - and if you are a prospective seller, you resist the temptation to sell - precisely when you can notice that you are well along in a trend. Why? Because your move would be late, no?

Does this sound like plain common sense or not?

[Thailandnotes]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

How do you know something has made "75 % of its move?" How do you know that 75 % will not turn out to be 30?

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Lukester ... I am relatively sure you are incapable of seeing it for yourself just as I am. ... Just as I sold them, I can rebuy them when I decide it is time again to put my money at risk.

Jim - It's not 'fortune telling' or 'hocus pocus' - it's merely not riding a trend past 75% of it's already accomplished trajectory.

Viz: People piling into gold in February, after gold was already up 40% over the previous 12 months. Why do that?

Viz: People bailing out of stocks after the broad indexes were down 20% (big move in the SPX for that time span) in a mere six months. Why do that?

Piling into or out of a trend after it's completed 75% of it's move? That's precisely how the slimeball trading funds make their lazy-ass profits, reliably, year after year, off us poor small investors. Why let them?

Which of these two indexes should we be piling into, and which should we be lightening up on, at least in contrarian terms, for the next six months? Why does it need to be all complicated, when the best aspects of "contrarianism" can be this simple?

SPX - VERSUS - GLD - SPOT_THE_COUNTER_TREND_PLAY.png

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Very few mention any real estate in portfolios - Is this because no real estate is owned, or it isn't regarded as an investment?

I own my home, mostly, and a percentage of an office building. I just don't count them when I am thinking in terms of liquid investable monies.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

______________

Jim -

As far as I can tell, you've sold your significant market long positions at precisely the wrong time in the market. You hung on to them all the way down since last August, and you are selling them precisely as the market is going to turn up for a prolonged corrective rally.

Lukester,

I don't know how far off you personally can tell, or how far off or correctly your advisors can see, but I manage my own investments and when I wish to sell them I do or buy them I shall. Just who do you follow that tells you the future? I am relatively sure you are incapable of seeing it for yourself just as I am.

But just as I sold them, I can rebuy them when I decide it is time again to put my money at risk.

Looking forward to your answer, as I expect others may be.

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

4/8/08 Yesterday, I noted in another post that I had closed all my long equity ETF's and the reasons for doing so ....

______________

Jim -

As far as I can tell, you've sold your significant market long positions at precisely the wrong time in the market. You hung on to them all the way down since last August, and you are selling them precisely as the market is going to turn up for a prolonged corrective rally.

[renewable]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Very few mention any real estate in portfolios - Is this because no real estate is owned, or it isn't regarded as an investment?

[quigleydoor]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

The idea behind my approach is that I only have to check things once a week to move my portfolio, and only if there is some extraordinary movement I'm checking things more thoroughly, any way investing for me must not distract me from my day job as IT manager and costumer service engineer, at least not yet.

I'm with you, Ocelotl. This is my current position:

Asset Class	Weight
Diversified commodities, natural resource equities, inflation-indexed securities	30%
US T-Notes and short term corporate bonds	22%
US equity, large cap	16%
Global equity	16%
Non-USD sovereign bonds	6%
Hussman HSGFX	5%
US equity, small/mid cap	5%

I have not made any adjustments to this model in about 6 months, since the positions have stayed within 5% of my targets.

I have been using this model, making some tweaks at the margin, for years. Right now it's down -4% from the high point it reached in February. The long term performance is pretty good: 1999 Q3 to 2008 Q1 annualized performance is 10.87%.

[phirang]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

At your young age, you are probably safe taking a chance following any variety of investment strategies you want to experiment with. For those of us who are older, a more conservative approach is probably in order.

I noticed in a thread yesterday, EJ said, "PMs are a place to be, not the place to be. I have never offered the opinion that an allocation of more than 15% of assets is wise for most investors, but of course that depends on who you are. My co-author of America\'s Bubble Economy: Profit When It Pops recommends 50%.

Over what period? Again, until the thesis that got us into PMs is no longer valid. Maybe that's in six months or six years. No one knows. All you can do is keep hammering on the thesis to make sure it's intact. The thesis that "gold is money" and "all fiat money sytems fail" etc. is the kind of ideological thinking that infects the PM market. I have met guys managing many millions of dollars who think this way and I find it shocking. They are going to lose their investors' money."

When I read EJ's book, I had put as much as 40% in PM, then when it hit $1k, I sold some and took the percentage down to 15%. The small profit I made, made up for the losses I had experienced with my Fidelity "Freedom" fund this year. I know nothing about investing and don't particularly enjoy the highs and lows of it, hence my original decision to be in a Freedom fund. Now I am following a simple strategy of 15 to 20% PM and the rest in FDIC insured CD's. I know many who might think this is a dumb strategy, but for someone who doesn't like to play the market and wants to preserve what little he has saved, it seems to make sense for the moment.

I would welcome some thoughts/opinions/advice on what others are doing.

Intellectually, i'm very sanguine about pm's. Practically, i have maybe 5% in the stuff.

I think the key is to build a position over time, as you learn more about the mkt(or think you do). John Williams in Shadowstats did a great job summarizing why pm's will dominate in the coming years, and it has more to do with medicare and SS than anything else...

I'll stay long gold until volker comes in or exxon is nationalised.

[BobinSFCA]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Bobin,

Thanks for your comments. I have no advice. Do you have a symbol for whichever Freedom fund you are in? It is interesting to me to see what things individuals have been in have done on a chart.

Hi Jim. It was FFFCX, which is down about 3% since the beginning of the year. This was supposed to be a conservative fund for those retiring at or around 2010.

When it was down 7% is when I sold it off and moved my money into PM and CDs. Their other Freedom funds don't look like they have performed much better.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Bobin,

Thanks for your comments. I have no advice. Do you have a symbol for whichever Freedom fund you are in? It is interesting to me to see what things individuals have been in have done on a chart.

[BobinSFCA]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I am curious if anyone else reads Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters?? I am 27 yrs old and have been taking my advice from him and a several others, if my investing journey, here is what it looks like so far
Physical Gold .45
Physical Silver .17
GDX .17
CASH .21

Pretty simple portfolio, i started loading up on metals 3yrs ago and haven't stopped. My GDX play seems like the right one, but will take awhile to pan out! Cheers, obv i am sure someone could give me a hard time for putting all the eggs in one basket, it just feels right though!! Cheers

At your young age, you are probably safe taking a chance following any variety of investment strategies you want to experiment with. For those of us who are older, a more conservative approach is probably in order.

I noticed in a thread yesterday, EJ said, "PMs are a place to be, not the place to be. I have never offered the opinion that an allocation of more than 15% of assets is wise for most investors, but of course that depends on who you are. My co-author of America\'s Bubble Economy: Profit When It Pops recommends 50%.

Over what period? Again, until the thesis that got us into PMs is no longer valid. Maybe that's in six months or six years. No one knows. All you can do is keep hammering on the thesis to make sure it's intact. The thesis that "gold is money" and "all fiat money sytems fail" etc. is the kind of ideological thinking that infects the PM market. I have met guys managing many millions of dollars who think this way and I find it shocking. They are going to lose their investors' money."

When I read EJ's book, I had put as much as 40% in PM, then when it hit $1k, I sold some and took the percentage down to 15%. The small profit I made, made up for the losses I had experienced with my Fidelity "Freedom" fund this year. I know nothing about investing and don't particularly enjoy the highs and lows of it, hence my original decision to be in a Freedom fund. Now I am following a simple strategy of 15 to 20% PM and the rest in FDIC insured CD's. I know many who might think this is a dumb strategy, but for someone who doesn't like to play the market and wants to preserve what little he has saved, it seems to make sense for the moment.

I would welcome some thoughts/opinions/advice on what others are doing.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Well, my composite indicator reads hold, while some indicators are close to the sell levels. Still long but probably should decrease the leverage some.

[j4f2h0]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I am curious if anyone else reads Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters?? I am 27 yrs old and have been taking my advice from him and a several others, if my investing journey, here is what it looks like so far
Physical Gold .45
Physical Silver .17
GDX .17
CASH .21

Pretty simple portfolio, i started loading up on metals 3yrs ago and haven't stopped. My GDX play seems like the right one, but will take awhile to pan out! Cheers, obv i am sure someone could give me a hard time for putting all the eggs in one basket, it just feels right though!! Cheers