Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

[globaleconomicollaps]

http://www.financialsense.com/node/8921

Franck Biancheri on Sovereign Debt Crisis and Europe’s Future
Guest Expert08/06/2012


Frank Biancheri

RealPlayer WinAmp Windows Media MP3

Erik Townsend with
Sponsored by: PFS Group

FSN Foreign Correspondent Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020 on the causes of the sovereign debt crisis, Europe’s future, pending war between Iran, Israel and the United States, and common criticisms of European socialism.

http://www.financialsensenewshour.co...012-0806-1.mp3

[BadJuju]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

Thank you for the post. It was difficult to understand him, though. His accent is extremely thick.

[BadJuju]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

What I take away from this is that we, those of us in western economies, need to stop trying to compete with countries that do not have the same industrial regulations and worker's rights that we have. All we have accomplished is the destruction of our economies while sending our wealth over to these nations that only seek to undermine us. We shouldn't be trying to erode the protections that we have built up over the centuries to compete with nations that do not give a damn about its people or the environment. Just stop! We do not need them. Make them rise to our standards. Until there is a level playing field, then real competition cannot occur. All we are doing is enriching corporations and other nations.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

What I take away from this is that we, those of us in western economies, need to stop trying to compete with countries that do not have the same industrial regulations and worker's rights that we have. All we have accomplished is the destruction of our economies while sending our wealth over to these nations that only seek to undermine us. We shouldn't be trying to erode the protections that we have built up over the centuries to compete with nations that do not give a damn about its people or the environment. Just stop! We do not need them. Make them rise to our standards. Until there is a level playing field, then real competition cannot occur. All we are doing is enriching corporations and other nations.

I took away the opposite meaning. Europe and in particular Germany are manufacturing powerhouses, not despite, but because of effective cheap health care, free or inexpensive day care and dozens of other "socialist" measures. The educated, healthy, productive citizens in Germany are on a per capita basis outproducing the Chinese. The only problem with this idyl is that it requires high taxes to produce this societal abundance and people are able to avoid paying tax in Europe. Mr. Biancheri doesn't believe this is a big issue. I think it is a deal killer, that will eventually destroy Europe if not effectively controlled.

Isn't the big beneficiary of this globalization supposed to be the communist state of "Red China"? Isn't China also burdened with providing free medical, free child care, free end of life care, free education etc.?

[jk]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

china does not provide much in social services. this is one reason for the high savings rate there.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

china does not provide much in social services. this is one reason for the high savings rate there.

Indeed. 1,100,000,000 with no old age pension (~200,000,000 with). 1,000,000,000 without basic medical insurance (~300,000,000 with).

Last time I checked, the compulsory 9 years of education for rural folk wasn't anywhere near completely implemented. Indeed, it can be difficult or impossible to get even without a state compulsion.

Saving makes a whole lot of sense for the vast majority.

[jk]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

i finally found the time to listen to the interview. thanks for doing this, erik.

leap2020 has for years been giving a positive spin to what's happening in the eurozone, and so is very much in contrast to the content that we discuss here, most of which is based on reports from what biancheri calls "the anglo-saxon" media. i subscribed to their service a number of years ago for a year, but did not find their short term predictions accurate. they also had a tendency to rewrite the history of their predictions in order to pat themselves on the back for their accurate "anticipations." however, this doesn't mean they will be wrong in the longer run. biancheri makes a number of good points about how poorly the u.k. is doing, [and btw how the u.s. might fare if we follow the path of "austerity"]. he points to the heavy role of the u.s. gov't in our economy, and of course a big chunk of that, as he says, is our military spending. but one way or the other, the u.s. economy is heavily dominated by the gov't. and, in comparing the u.s. to european governance, it's hard to take pride in the crony capitalism that has emerged here. which is not to say the european polity isn't run in large measure by unelected technocrats, now more than ever. whether the latter condition will eventually be rectified by europe-wide elections as biancheri posits, remains to be seen.

and the eurozone saga has dragged on far longer than any of us thought possible. my "europe in crisis" thread was started almost 3 years ago, and the end is not in sight. hollande is a new intra-crisis leader. of course, i think the same could be said about rajoy, and we see how well he's doing. not. the real key, i suppose, will be the german elections next year, whether merkel is re-elected and if so on what platform re the eurozone. i find it hard to share biancheri's sunny outlook for europe, but i hope he's right. it would be nice for there to be a sunny outcome somewhere.

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

i subscribed to their service a number of years ago for a year, but did not find their short term predictions accurate. they also had a tendency to rewrite the history of their predictions in order to pat themselves on the back for their accurate "anticipations." however, this doesn't mean they will be wrong in the longer run.

I also subscribed for two years, and also cancelled my subscription.

You make a fine review of the main Biancheri's points. I would only add that he thinks that you should invest in Gold (+1 for him) and that he is a firm believer in BRICS as a future motor of the world economy, and believes that Europe and the BRICS will somehow make an alliance, with perhaps the BRICS becoming more important for Europe than the US. Frankly I don't see it. The cultural differences between Europe and BRICS are too big.

[FrankL]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

I also subscribed for two years, and also cancelled my subscription.

You make a fine review of the main Biancheri's points. I would only add that he thinks that you should invest in Gold (+1 for him) and that he is a firm believer in BRICS as a future motor of the world economy, and believes that Europe and the BRICS will somehow make an alliance, with perhaps the BRICS becoming more important for Europe than the US. Frankly I don't see it. The cultural differences between Europe and BRICS are too big.

I'd like to add to both the excellent posts by jk and alvaro spain:
LEAP2020 has always had a tendency to predict what they, a bunch of French pro EU-technocrats, personally wish to happen rather than what most likely is going to happen. Unfortunately the disconnect between the two has been significant in the past.

In the Germanic countries of the Eurozone, the euro, EU technocrats and the southern neighbours are watched with great suspicion. I doubt anyone is wilfully going to accept more integration when the alternative is a split up. I can give an anecdote (I can't verify if it's true, but most people believe it to be the case in the Netherlands and Germany) to explain why the Euro is very unpopular:
It is said that it started with the fixed exchange rate of the pre-eurozone currencies into the common currency. The finance minister who was in office in the Netherlands back then already admitted that the Dutch currency, which was pegged to the Deutschmark, was factored into the euro at a rate 10% cheaper than it should have been. I guess northern European politicians used the Euro as an easy opportunity to deflate labour costs in their countries? The populace did notice however, and was angry because of the resultant drop in spending power for things like food and petrol.

My prediction: When push comes to shove, and France + its southern friends are in dire need of ECB printing and eurozone bonds before the demands of Germany have been fulfilled (common European banking oversight, loss of fiscal sovereignty to an independent regulator), then they will go ahead regardless and push Germany and the countries that are economically allied to it into an alternate currency regime (neue deutschmark?).

P.S. around the 13:00 minute mark, the host talks about an Israeli strike against Iran in the eighties; I'm unaware of such a historic feat. Can it be that the host means the attack on the Osirak plant in Iraq instead?

[FRED]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

I'd like to add to both the excellent posts by jk and alvaro spain:
LEAP2020 has always had a tendency to predict what they, a bunch of French pro EU-technocrats, personally wish to happen rather than what most likely is going to happen. Unfortunately the disconnect between the two has been significant in the past.

Old timer iTulipers may recall that iTulip offered LEAP2020 briefly in 2006 but withdrew from the service largely for the reasons JK and others have noted. We also withdrew support for Stratfor in 2006.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Erik Townsend interviews Franck Biancheri, founder of European think tank LEAP/E2020

Ahh Stratfor..... I met Mr. Friedman back in January and I did not come away with a good impression. Something just didn't seem right about him.