Arab Spring in Egypt: When the pipeline explosions bloom

[c1ue]

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCont...-time-in-.aspx

Sinai gas pipeline blown up for fifteenth time in past 18 months

For the fifteenth time since the January 25 Revolution, a gas pipeline used to carry gas through Sinai into Israel and Jordan was blown up early Sunday.

The attack, taking place in El-Khoroba area in the east of Al-Arish in northern Sinai, is the first to take place after President Mohamed Morsi assumed office on 30 June. Militant Bedouins are suspected of perpetrating the attack.

No injuries were reported and fire trucks and security personnel were on the scene to control a resulting fire that reached 20 metres high.

Sunday’s incident has shown that despite the termination of the gas deal with Israel three months ago, pipelines still seem to be in use.

In April, Egypt cancelled its gas trade deal with Israel following popular pressure to abandon the deal.

Mohamed Shoeib, CEO of trhe East Mediterranean Gas Company (EGAS), said 22 April in a televised interview that the deal was cancelled when Israel failed to meet payment deadlines.

Following the deal's termination, Israeli officials expressed concern with what they saw as a unilateral decision taken by Egyptian authorities, saying the move would have negative implications on the Camp David peace accords.

The 20-year natural gas deal signed between Israel and Egypt in 2005 has been a pillar of Egyptian-Israeli economic cooperation following the historic 1979 peace treaty between the two countries.

On 28 June, former oil minister under Hosni Mubarak, Sameh Fahmi, and then fugitive businessman Hussein Fahmy were sentenced to 15 years in prison over the gas deal. They were both accused of selling gas to Israel at far below market value.

Anyone know what the pipeline explosion frequency was before the Arab Spring?

[don]

Re: Arab Spring in Egypt: When the pipeline explosions bloom

Anyone know what the pipeline explosion frequency was before the Arab Spring?

No but I assume few and far between.

From 1979 (the year of the peace agreement) to 1997, Egypt received military aid of US $1.3 billion annually, which also helped modernize the Egyptian military. (This is beyond economic, humanitarian, and other aid, which has totaled more than US $25 billion.) Eastern-supplied until 1979, Egypt now received American weaponry such as the M1A1 Abrams Tank, AH-64 Apache gunship and the F-16 fighter jet. In comparison, Israel has received $3 billion annually since 1985 in grants and military aid packages.

That buys a lot of acceptance of the status quo . . . .

[GRG55]

Re: Arab Spring in Egypt: When the pipeline explosions bloom

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCont...-time-in-.aspx

Anyone know what the pipeline explosion frequency was before the Arab Spring?

I am back in the Middle East at this moment. The popular view in Egypt and elsewhere in MENA is that the election was actually won by Ahmed Shafiq, but because of his association with the former Mubarak government (Shafiq was Hosni Mubarak's last Prime Minister) there were genuine fears of "another revolution" in Egypt if he was declared the legitimate winner. So the election commission may have taken a "short term gain but long term pain" decision by declaring Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood the winner. Time will tell. But the repeated blowing up of an important piece of the national energy infrastructure suggests the worst.

A bit of history on the Sinai pipeline. During the 1990s there was a lot of successful gas exploration in the Egypt offshore Nile Delta. Companies including Chicago based Amoco Corporation, Italy's Eni, and British Gas found a number of world class natural gas reservoirs at the exact same time that Egypt's oil production in the Gulf of Suez and Western Desert regions was peaking. Unlike some of its African neighbours, starting in the early 1980s Egypt developed an excellent pipeline and gas processing network to reduce flaring associated gas and connect it to several of its major population centers including Cairo.

By the mid-1990s Egypt was starting to look like it was going to have a serious glut of natural gas and projects to expand the pipeline distribution systems inside the cities, to convert vehicles to CNG, and to export gas for much needed "hard" currency were being evaluated. Three projects anchored the exports. Two LNG plants were constructed on the Med coastline to take advantage of Egypt's short haul distances to Europe: Egyptian LNG is a 2 x 3.6 million tonne liquifaction plant at Idku (near Alexandria) owned in partnership with the Egyptians by British Gas, Malaysia's Petronas and Gaz de France. SEGAS (Spanish Egyptian Gas Co.), located near Damietta, is a single 5 million tonne per annum liquifaction plant owned by Spain's Unión Fenosa and Eni. The third major gas export project was the Al Arish (Sinai) pipeline.

The pipeline was a really ambitious project, done entirely by Egyptian companies in the early 2000s. The first part took the line to Aqaba in energy-short Jordan (at the head of the Gulf of Aqaba off the Red Sea) and supplied gas to a Jordanian power station there. To avoid crossing Israeli territory there is a short underwater section to connect it from Egypt directly to Jordan. The line was then extended in stages during the mid-2000s north to Amman, Jordan, then Damascus and Homs in Syria and finally west to Tripoli, Lebanon on the Med coast. There were plans to extend the line into Turkey and onward to Europe by connecting to the proposed Nabucco pipeline, and to connect Iraqi gas as a supply as well. But tribalism and gawd knows what else persists and the locals in North Sinai prefer to blow it up for sport apparently.

On a map one can see the lengths the Arabs went to in order to avoid future interference from Israel. A direct line from the offshore Nile Delta platforms to Lebanon would have been much, much shorter...but good luck getting Israel to agree to allow it to be built along their coast. Late in the last decade an agreement was reached to build a short stub line from Al Arish directly to Israel. Whether gas is allowed to flow through that line or not is probably an excellent indicator of the current state of Egypt-Israeli relations. Not that I think the Israeli's much care now. Some of the same geologists that worked the Egypt Nile Delta are working offshore Cyprus and Israel now...

Israel Discovers More OffShore Oil and Gas

Tuesday, June 05, 2012

JERUSALEM, Israel -- An Israeli company announced the discovery of another sizable offshore oil and gas field on Sunday.

Israel Opportunity Energy Resources LP estimated the newest field at about 1.4 billion barrels of oil and 6.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas...

...The latest discovery follows last June's announcement of one of the world's largest offshore gas reserves estimated at more than 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 800 million barrels of oil...

...In February, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Cypriot President Demetris Christofias to talk about the discovery off the coast of Cyprus of natural gas deposits estimated at 8 trillion cubic feet...

[reggie]

Re: Arab Spring in Egypt: When the pipeline explosions bloom

.... But the repeated blowing up of an important piece of the national energy infrastructure suggests the worst....

Can you please summarize the media narrative, in the region, that describes the motives for such attacks. And what does the local, man-on-the-street, think the motives are? Thanks.

On a side note, I once heard, not that long ago, Al Gore say that "we needed an 'Arab Spring' in the States". I thought that was a particularly revealing and intesting statement.

[GRG55]

Re: Arab Spring in Egypt: When the pipeline explosions bloom

Can you please summarize the media narrative, in the region, that describes the motives for such attacks. And what does the local, man-on-the-street, think the motives are? Thanks.

On a side note, I once heard, not that long ago, Al Gore say that "we needed an 'Arab Spring' in the States". I thought that was a particularly revealing and intesting statement.

There seem to be two main narratives in Egypt, with the first below appearing to be favoured in the Middle East region outside Egypt:

1. Islamists showing support for the new Muslim Brotherhood government by cutting off the gas supply to Israel from Al Arish to Askelon by blowing up the supply line into Al Arish from the Nile Delta region; and

2. Bedouins trying to get the attention of the government in Cairo who don't send any money to that region to support the people.

Take your pick :-)

[metalman]

Re: Arab Spring in Egypt: When the pipeline explosions bloom

There seem to be two main narratives in Egypt, with the first below appearing to be favoured in the Middle East region outside Egypt:

1. Islamists showing support for the new Muslim Brotherhood government by cutting off the gas supply to Israel from Al Arish to Askelon by blowing up the supply line into Al Arish from the Nile Delta region; and

2. Bedouins trying to get the attention of the government in Cairo who don't send any money to that region to support the people.

Take your pick :-)

or 80% of one & 20% the other?

[reggie]

Re: Arab Spring in Egypt: When the pipeline explosions bloom

There seem to be two main narratives in Egypt, with the first below appearing to be favoured in the Middle East region outside Egypt:

1. Islamists showing support for the new Muslim Brotherhood government by cutting off the gas supply to Israel from Al Arish to Askelon by blowing up the supply line into Al Arish from the Nile Delta region; and

2. Bedouins trying to get the attention of the government in Cairo who don't send any money to that region to support the people.

Take your pick :-)

Do you believe either of theswe, or do you think other unspoken scenarios better fit the bill?