The End of the Communist Dynasty

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

Very insightful, sir. I agree with the thrust of what you say here, especially with regards to India/Pakistan being a powder keg region.

Definitely take everything I say with a grain of salt ;)

I'm merely an interested amateur compared to some of the content in this realm over at Small Wars Journal Forum.

Here and there would be two of the most valuable resources(in my opinion) for developing a personal opinion on a lot of the crazy stuff going on today.

[jk]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

re the desire of asian nations not to get pinned down on the u.s. vs china tension: the question is from whom they'll be getting their high-tech hardware, if any. the shiniest toys are not going to be home-grown in vietnam, or india for that matter.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

re the desire of asian nations not to get pinned down on the u.s. vs china tension: the question is from whom they'll be getting their high-tech hardware, if any. the shiniest toys are not going to be home-grown in vietnam, or india for that matter.

Good point.

Here's a rough indicator of who has what stuff:

*China....home grown mostly, some purchased(Russia/France/Israel), heaps of stolen IP(Russian/US)
*Vietnam.....mostly Russian, but increasingly buying from elsewhere(coms) and building relationships with India
*Singapore.......mostly US, but also includes strong/long relationships with Israel, artillery from South Africa, etc
*Indonesia.....a logistical nightmare of gear from every corner of the planet(US/Russia/EU)...a good example of a long-term "fence sitter and bed hopper"
*Malaysia....another logistical nightmare mix
*Philippines.....mostly older US gear desperately in need of replacement or free hand me downs.
Thailand.....a mix of mostly US and a bit of EU gear
India......formerly mostly Russian(still quite a bit), but shifting distinctly towards the US/EU..plus home grown
Pakistan...Mostly Chinese...some US...some home grown
Japan......they tend to design and build their own stuff....or license build US/EU stuff
North Korea.......leftover Russian stuff in mass quantities.....home grown copies of Russian stuff
South Korea......mostly US, with a fast growing domestic manufacturing capability that goes far beyond just license built gear

[flintlock]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

I was about to say, for some, the military still offers an unprecendented financial opportunity to raise their standard of living. I doubt there has ever been a time where service has had better pay and benefits. Many volunteers know full well they couldnt do better in the civilian job market. Now the potential psychological and personal costs, thats a different story. Something volunteers would be well advised to consider. Its not for everyone obviously.

[jpatter666]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

Yeah, the days of the courts giving kids a choice of the Marine Corps or jail are truly over......and were overblown by Hollywood in the past.

Sorry to hear about your nephews....hopefully they can put it all behind them someday....but I would think in a very tough economy, with no tangible skills, and multiple felony convictions they are on a path to perpetual under-class

The perverse thing is that they might be better off than what they could have done themselves.

Room, board and medical all taken care of.....

[c1ue]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

But it's not "the nationalist sentiments of the crowd of young single men" that is writing the ad copy for the aggressive tone of official statements from China regarding such ridiculous claims and actions as what is happening in the Spratleys is it?

Some of the official statements(more like angry warnings) coming out of China sound exactly like they WERE written by a crowd of nationalistic young undersexed single men....at the very least they come across as quite abrasive and lacking in diplomatic finesse.

You might consider the statements that were made before/after any number of other incidents: the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia, the EC3/J8 collision, Tiananmen square, etc etc

Equally so the 'official' statements from the Philippines are hardly a model of restraint either.

Is it US pressure on the Philippines or is it the Philippine government/people inviting the US back to Subic Bay due to Chinese aggression towards the Spratleys after kicking the US out a generation ago? Is it the US making the Philippines ban Huawei from strategic IT infrastructure in the Philippines?

Is it US pressure that has seen India and Vietnam develop a military/security partnership that will see the crews of Vietnam's flashy new submarines being trained by India?

Is it US pressure that has seen India and South Korea conducting joint naval exercises recently?

We have fundamentally different views.

I do think it ironic that every example you post above is the US reaching thousands of miles over empty ocean to assist one or more of China's neighbors in a dispute vs. China.

Where is the equivalent in the Caribbean/East Pacific/West Atlantic?

Where are the Chinese bases in Canada, Mexico, Cuba, and so forth?

How would the US react if suddenly Cuba put in a Chinese naval base?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

We have fundamentally different views.

I do think it ironic that every example you post above is the US reaching thousands of miles over empty ocean to assist one or more of China's neighbors in a dispute vs. China.

Where is the equivalent in the Caribbean/East Pacific/West Atlantic?

Where are the Chinese bases in Canada, Mexico, Cuba, and so forth?

How would the US react if suddenly Cuba put in a Chinese naval base?

Different shaped pegs for different shaped holes.

The US docks a warship at the invitation of the Philippines because they are concerned about China and WOEFULLY unprepared to protect their own EEZ, the Chinese use soft power and related interests to gain influence and control at the Panama Canal.

Different strokes for different folks.

I witnessed first hand the comedic "Spy versus Spy" of both Mainland China and Taiwanese China attempting to purchase influence and control across the Pacific...in their case to "buy" UN recognition for Taiwan, or to block it by China.....achieved largely through backhanders and corruption.

I also witnessed first hand examples of retroactive fishing licenses being issued for Chinese purse seine poachers after they were caught, same goes for mass illegal logging.

The US parks a boat alongside a pier at the invitation of the local government, sailors spend heaps on beer and hookers to benefit the local economy, and you consider it an act of excessive aggression.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government backs Chinese commercial interests to literally rape the region and not a peep from you.

As I said.....different strokes for different folks.....different shaped pegs for different shaped holes....different doctrines.....different philosophies...same big game.

It is disingenuous of you to point out a US warship parked in Manila without putting it into context with Chinese actions in the region.

Cuba is reportedly going groveling to Russia for aid.....maybe they'll turn to China like Sri Lanka did.

And we do know how and why Sri Lanka turned out the way it did don't we?

[c1ue]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

The US docks a warship at the invitation of the Philippines because they are concerned about China and WOEFULLY unprepared to protect their own EEZ, the Chinese use soft power and related interests to gain influence and control at the Panama Canal.

This is funny, because if anything the US' support for the Philippines has been fairly lukewarm.

Be that as it may, the reality is still the same: how many Chinese bases are there within 1000 miles of the United States?

Sure, China has bought some bit of the Panama Canal, just as Chinese are buying houses on the West Coast of North America and companies/land all over the world. This is in no way unusual - the US also has any number of Americans who have bought property in China and American companies who have bought Chinese companies.

Totally irrelevant.

I witnessed first hand the comedic "Spy versus Spy" of both Mainland China and Taiwanese China attempting to purchase influence and control across the Pacific...in their case to "buy" UN recognition for Taiwan, or to block it by China.....achieved largely through backhanders and corruption.

I also witnessed first hand examples of retroactive fishing licenses being issued for Chinese purse seine poachers after they were caught, same goes for mass illegal logging.

This again would it not be more credible if in reality you could substitute any number of other nation's names in front of all of the nouns above. Japanese poaching in Russian waters, Portuguese in the Caribbean, the fight over recognition of Kosovo, etc etc.

Why is it China is unusual in any way?

Meanwhile, the Chinese government backs Chinese commercial interests to literally rape the region and not a peep from you.

That would be because the Chinese government and Chinese governments aren't doing anything different than American, Indian, European, or other governments/companies.

Cuba is reportedly going groveling to Russia for aid.....maybe they'll turn to China like Sri Lanka did.

Might, could, may vs. is/has been/continues to be. Do you understand the difference?

And we do know how and why Sri Lanka turned out the way it did don't we?

An ethnic minority not even in government getting put down. No historical precedent violated here.

[cobben]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

There you have it - democracy is the culprit! Off with it's head!

In the comments nasty vicious capitalist running dogs compare the great city of Dongguan to certain places in hopelessly decadent California, how dare they!


A Chinese Mega City Is On The Verge Of Bankruptcy

. . .

Boom city Dongguan faces bankruptcy


Dongguan's derelict factories and huge deficits send chilling warning to a China in slowdown


After three decades of spectacular growth, Guangdong's boom town of Dongguan is on the brink of bankruptcy.

Up to 60 per cent of its villages are running up deficits and will soon need a bailout from the township, researchers at Sun Yat-sen University have discovered.

It is a dramatic turn of fortune for Dongguan - one of the richest cities in China - and could foreshadow a wider fiscal crisis as the country's economy cools.
Local government debt hit 10.7 trillion yuan (HK$13.16 trillion) nationwide at the end of 2010, equivalent to about 27 per cent of gross domestic product. Credit rating service Moody's estimates the actual figure could be about 14.2 trillion yuan.

Bai Jingming, a senior researcher at the Ministry of Finance, estimated in 2009 the total debt of village authorities could total 10 per cent of the country's GDP, but there is no official data.


Bai said many village chiefs he interviewed had no idea how much debt they had.

. . .

"They are in deficit because their incomes are shrinking while their expenses are going up," Lin said.
This is an unexpected sideeffect of China's fledgling grass-roots democracy.

While competitive elections are still absent at almost all levels of government, Beijing has started to let villages choose their leader through universal suffrage. These elections have been getting increasingly competitive, and candidates often promise to pay generous "dividends" to villagers to attract votes.

"In some rare cases, the leader-elect promised to give each household 10,000 yuan per month," Lin said. The money would come from the village community "investment" - effectively, the rent they collected from factories.

Lately, village chiefs have found it difficult to fulfil such election pledges. But instead of reneging on their promises and sparking the anger of villagers, they turn to the rural credit co-operatives - the de facto local banks - for short-term loans at interest rates as high as 30 percentage points.

Banks are willing to lend, because they know that the township government would have to bail villages out if things go wrong.
"Some village leaders are now really worried that the bank may come to call in the loans," Lin said. "If the villages default, the burden would be transferred to the county or the township government."

The Dongguan government is in poor shape to handle a crisis. Its GDP growth slowed to 2.5 per cent in the first half of the year. The average growth in the past eight years was about 11 per cent.

Xu Jianghua, Dongguan's party secretary, urged villages last month to stop raising money to pay dividends. Few took heed.
Village chiefs may argue paying dividends are not the sole cause of their debt. They also have to pay for local fire and police services - even though these are supposed to be the local government's responsibility.

For years, the township government underinvested in such services, knowing they would be taken care of by the cashed-up village authorities.
Eddy Li, president of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Association, said in some counties police would refuse to investigate a crime unless it involved more than 20,000 yuan.

Shao estimated Zhangmutou county authorities alone have accumulated a total of 1.6 billion yuan in debt. Annual revenue is only 600 million yuan.
Shao said the Dongguan government needs structural reform to end its reliance on rental income. He proposed the township give residency to migrant workers so they can contribute more to the local economy.

"Without a radical change in the social structure, the economic transformation will never succeed," he said.

[touchring]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

My view is that while the US is agitating for a new Cold War, China is not.

Of course, the PLA is a joke, they can't even defend a few uninhabited rocks off Taiwan.

If history has taught us anything, China may not even beat Korea in a real war, let alone Japan. As for the US, no need mentioning.

China is in no position to start a war with anyone except maybe with really weak states such as the Philippines or maybe even Vietnam.

[Ghent12]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

I take a dim view on nuclear weapons....specifically, I believe there is a reasonably good chance of a nuclear weapon being used in anger in my lifetime.

I believe it is POSSIBLE for direct conventional conflict between two nuclear armed nations without it leading towards the use of nuclear weapons. But I think it would require one nation to possess overwhelming military capability over the other....such as US/Pakistan, US/North Korean, US/Iran, or possibly US/China(until China has developed a persistent and survivable nuclear deterrent).

But possible is not the same as likely.

Red Storm Rising by Tom Clancy comes to mind, actually. All you need is a multifaceted crisis, a leadership in group-think mode, and a total misreading of intentions by the other side.

SPOILER ALERT:
In the the book, a terrorist attack took out a mega-huge refinery, thereby causing a major impending shortfall in petroleum for the Soviet Union. Their leadership saw this as a potential moment of critical weakness which the West would exploit, and therefore they created all sorts of political machinations to split NATO and attack both Europe and the Middle East. The West was caught pants-down by the whole thing initially, but of course the good guys eventually win; no real spoiler there.

[Ghent12]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

i didn't mean to say there would be a draft. i'm saying that high unemployment means more people want to "volunteer" for the military.

There's nothing to quote about the volunteer military. You're trying to make an individual's choice and chance at quite decent living standards out to be coercive or otherwise have a negative connotation. There is no draft at present, and not a single member of the armed forces here serves involuntarily. The plain truth is that the military places absolutely tremendous costs upon its members, and the compensation received by those members does little more than scratch the surface in terms of fair recompense in most cases.

[jk]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

There's nothing to quote about the volunteer military. You're trying to make an individual's choice and chance at quite decent living standards out to be coercive or otherwise have a negative connotation. There is no draft at present, and not a single member of the armed forces here serves involuntarily. The plain truth is that the military places absolutely tremendous costs upon its members, and the compensation received by those members does little more than scratch the surface in terms of fair recompense in most cases.

my intent was not to disparage those in the military, but to point out that some would choose NOT to volunteer if there were better options for them in the civilian economy.

[Ghent12]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

my intent was not to disparage those in the military, but to point out that some would choose NOT to volunteer if there were better options for them in the civilian economy.

I would think that that is obvious, but I could be mistaken. Since I am in the military and have experience as both enlisted and Officer, my outsider's perception of the military isn't exactly the same as a real outsider's. In any case, it is an empiric fact that recruitment and retention are significantly influenced by the health of the civilian economy. That's why enlistment and reenlistment bonuses as well as the Officer equivalents (career incentive pay) go up or down from year to year.

[cobben]

Re: The End of the Communist Dynasty

Just got around to reading this, good detailed overview, just clipped in this one cute case.
The Chinese make western speculators look like pikers.


Exposing China's Shadow Banking System

● Public-Private Shark Loan Ponzi Finance Schemes

Local government officials and private entrepreneurs frequently collude to operate shark loan
and Ponzi finance schemes, raising funds from local villagers and city residents. The small crabfishing
village of Shiji, located within Sihong County in eastern China’s Jiangsu Province, represents a prime
example of an instance involving the miraculous transformation of a poor rural village, in which the
average per capita annual income is a little over $2,000, into an apparently ‘wealthy‘ community
based upon loan sharking and rampant property speculation.

“It all began when a man named Shi Guobao returned to Shiji after working in
Beijing. He became a property developer, but he wanted to make a bigger fortune
so he decided to also become a loan shark.”

- Zhu Yi, Head Official of the Village of Shiji

In order to capitalize the shark loan operation, Mr. Shi organized a syndicate and solicited funds
from fellow villagers, many of whom reportedly committed their entire life savings on the
promise of receiving 10% interest each month. The operation lent out funds at monthly interest
rates of 30% or more, mainly to local property developers. The local government eagerly
participated in the scheme, prospering from the receipt of income from every acre of land sold to
the developers.

Funded by the shark loans, developers encircled the village with a multitude of cranes and began
construction of apartment towers which advertised for buyers by utilizing images of English
butlers and chandelier-lit dining rooms. During the height of the scheme, residents of Sihong
County reportedly purchased 800 BMW automobiles, 600 Mercedes, 500 Audis, 50 Porsches, 30
Jaguars, 1 Ferrari, 1 Lamborghini and 1 Maserati. Fireworks were set-off in celebration nearly
every night in the area.

Ultimately, however, there proved to be little demand for the apartments under construction and
borrowers began defaulting on loans, causing the pyramid scheme to collapse. Half-finished
apartment towers stand vacant while an estimated 1,700 residents have reportedly lost their
investments in the shark loan operation. The only luxury cars remaining in the area today
are parked outside the local Sihong County government offices.

________________________

93 Id. Following the collapse of the shark loan operation, an investigative reporter who travelled from Shanghai to
report on the situation in Shiji was warned by local government officials, “[I]t is not worth looking into too deeply,”
and was at first detained by local officials and then deported from the village to the city of Nanjing, some 200 miles
away.