Tweet
This got a mention on NC, A nice write up on alphaville and I have seen it somewhere else, but it slips my mind right now:
http://gregor.us/solar/world-solar-p...oes-parabolic/
World Solar Power Goes Parabolic
From a very small base, and from a tiny position in world energy supply, the buildout of global solar power is starting to go parabolic. Last year, according to the just released BP Statistical Review (you must access the Excel workbook for solar data), global solar generation nearly doubled to reach 55.7 TWh (terrawatt hours). | see: Global Solar Consumption in TWh (terrawatt hours) 2001-2011.
To put this power capacity in context, North America generated almost 100 times as much power in 2011 from all sources (coal, natural gas, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar), to reach 5204.5 TWh. By that measure, solar power capacity on a global basis can barely be detected, and is therefore a kind of joke, right? Uhm no, that would be wrong.
As world nuclear power goes into retreat, because of its enormous expense, catastrophe-risk, and complexity, it is power generated by solar that offers easy time-to-completion benefits and project clarity, especially in the developing world. (Indeed, nuclear power again lost primary energy share last year, according to the BP Statistical Review). Moreover, as the world is no longer able to fund economic growth with oil, owing to flat global supply, the industrial economy continues to migrate towards the electrical grid. While this certainly means that coal fired power generation will dominate for the next decade, it’s also the case that a more robust powergrid will become the receptacle for solar power.
While I am not ready to sign on to a Singularity’s version of solar buildout, the possibility that solar power reaches 10% of global power generation by the end of this decade should give you some idea of the new world made possible by plummeting solar voltaic prices, and, the array of other technological advances in capturing the diffuse energy of the sun. To accomplish this gain in primary energy share, solar will need to advance from last year’s 55.7 TWh to approximately 2200 TWh. That probably sounds impossible to most observers, but I would point out that at current growth rates, those levels could be achieved as early as the year 2018.
It is not a mistake that global solar capacity has begun a parabolic move. While many will conclude that demand is the main driver of this growth—and that is not incorrect—it is actually the increasing difficulty and complexity of other power generation construction which is now casting off advantages, to solar power. Do not underestimate the speed of solar.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...obby-says.html
Solar Industry Has One Year of Inventory, French Lobby Says
By Francois de Beaupuy - 2012-06-06T14:45:22Z
Makers of solar panels and cells have inventory representing about a year of sales, meaning that the industry will see further bankruptcies and consolidation, the head of France’s Renewable Energy Association said.
Production capacity in the photovoltaic industry is “about double the estimated market size, and inventories represent about one year of sales,” Jean-Louis Bal, the president of the lobby group, said today at a conference organized by L’Usine Nouvelle magazine in Paris. “There are a lot of manufacturers, including large Chinese players, which are in financial difficulties. There will be restructuring.”
Global demand for solar panels may climb to 32 gigawatts this year from 27 gigawatts in 2011, he said.
The Bloomberg Large Solar Energy (BISOLAR) index of 17 companies has dropped 75 percent in the past 12 months as Chinese price competition, excess production capacity, and dwindling subsidies from cash-strapped European governments have hurt the share prices of many solar-equipment suppliers.
To contact the reporter on this story: Francois de Beaupuy in Paris at fdebeaupuy@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Benedikt Kammel at bkammel@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BISOLAR:IND/chart
That is a 90% drop top to bottom. How much further down can it go?
http://gregor.us/solar/world-solar-p...oes-parabolic/
World Solar Power Goes Parabolic
From a very small base, and from a tiny position in world energy supply, the buildout of global solar power is starting to go parabolic. Last year, according to the just released BP Statistical Review (you must access the Excel workbook for solar data), global solar generation nearly doubled to reach 55.7 TWh (terrawatt hours). | see: Global Solar Consumption in TWh (terrawatt hours) 2001-2011.
To put this power capacity in context, North America generated almost 100 times as much power in 2011 from all sources (coal, natural gas, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar), to reach 5204.5 TWh. By that measure, solar power capacity on a global basis can barely be detected, and is therefore a kind of joke, right? Uhm no, that would be wrong.
As world nuclear power goes into retreat, because of its enormous expense, catastrophe-risk, and complexity, it is power generated by solar that offers easy time-to-completion benefits and project clarity, especially in the developing world. (Indeed, nuclear power again lost primary energy share last year, according to the BP Statistical Review). Moreover, as the world is no longer able to fund economic growth with oil, owing to flat global supply, the industrial economy continues to migrate towards the electrical grid. While this certainly means that coal fired power generation will dominate for the next decade, it’s also the case that a more robust powergrid will become the receptacle for solar power.
While I am not ready to sign on to a Singularity’s version of solar buildout, the possibility that solar power reaches 10% of global power generation by the end of this decade should give you some idea of the new world made possible by plummeting solar voltaic prices, and, the array of other technological advances in capturing the diffuse energy of the sun. To accomplish this gain in primary energy share, solar will need to advance from last year’s 55.7 TWh to approximately 2200 TWh. That probably sounds impossible to most observers, but I would point out that at current growth rates, those levels could be achieved as early as the year 2018.
It is not a mistake that global solar capacity has begun a parabolic move. While many will conclude that demand is the main driver of this growth—and that is not incorrect—it is actually the increasing difficulty and complexity of other power generation construction which is now casting off advantages, to solar power. Do not underestimate the speed of solar.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...obby-says.html
Solar Industry Has One Year of Inventory, French Lobby Says
By Francois de Beaupuy - 2012-06-06T14:45:22Z
Makers of solar panels and cells have inventory representing about a year of sales, meaning that the industry will see further bankruptcies and consolidation, the head of France’s Renewable Energy Association said.
Production capacity in the photovoltaic industry is “about double the estimated market size, and inventories represent about one year of sales,” Jean-Louis Bal, the president of the lobby group, said today at a conference organized by L’Usine Nouvelle magazine in Paris. “There are a lot of manufacturers, including large Chinese players, which are in financial difficulties. There will be restructuring.”
Global demand for solar panels may climb to 32 gigawatts this year from 27 gigawatts in 2011, he said.
The Bloomberg Large Solar Energy (BISOLAR) index of 17 companies has dropped 75 percent in the past 12 months as Chinese price competition, excess production capacity, and dwindling subsidies from cash-strapped European governments have hurt the share prices of many solar-equipment suppliers.
To contact the reporter on this story: Francois de Beaupuy in Paris at fdebeaupuy@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Benedikt Kammel at bkammel@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BISOLAR:IND/chart
That is a 90% drop top to bottom. How much further down can it go?
Comment