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50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

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  • 50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

    Even Detroit does better.

    http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90...2/7106629.html

    Netizens hone in on housing vacancy rate
    08:49, August 17, 2010

    The absence of authoritative figures on the nation's housing vacancy rate, reported as high as 50 percent in major cities by domestic media, has led some netizens to carry out a field investigation themselves.

    Initiated by news portal Sina.com, a nationwide investigation was conducted on the housing market in more than 100 cities, with many netizens volunteering to collect firsthand information by counting the vacant rooms in commercial buildings.

    "With help from our users, we have gathered information on more than 1,000 real estate projects across the nation so far," said Liao Lanxin, an editor in charge of the online survey from the Shanghai office of Sina.com.

    "Counting black rooms at night is a direct way to find out whether an apartment is occupied or not," Liao said. Of the 100 Shanghai property projects the website researched, volunteers found that 51.23 percent of the flats were empty. The no-lighting rate in the Beijing properties polled is 65.6 percent. Hainan was the highest with more than 70 percent black, she added.

    On Aug 4, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that as of June 30, the unsold housing area across the nation totaled 191.82 million square meters, up 6.4 percent over a year earlier. However, NBS didn't release any data on the much-talked about housing vacancy rate, adding that accurate figures depend on the future population and housing census.

    "There are no official and reliable figures to reflect the vacancy rate in the current housing market, but for those who care about the healthy operation of the market, we feel responsible to do the research," Liao said.

    Using the most direct and grassroots methodology by counting the rooms with lights on, netizens get a look at the current housing market, she added.

    Of more than 10,000 online users polled, 91.1 percent said the number of unoccupied properties is outrageously high in their cities. Some 88.8 percent polled said that property prices are directly pushed up by speculators who buy a number of houses and leave them vacant.

    "Investors-owners leave their properties vacant just because they can relish the gains from the soaring housing prices even if they don't lease them out," said an employee named Ma Li, who works at a trading company in Shanghai.

    "My landlord has four other apartments after leasing one of them to me, and he has made himself a multi-millionaire by buying houses with mortgage loans over the past decade," Ma said.

    Lu Qilin, director of the Shanghai-based Uwin Real Estate Research Center, told China Daily that he understands why netizens want to know the truth about China's housing market after official bodies failed to offer such data. But Lu doubted the accuracy of counting lights to obtain the vacancy rate.

    "Surely some of the high-end apartments are not used, but this methodology is arguable in terms of effectiveness," he said. According to him, all the apartments in Tomson Riviera, once known as "China's most expensive apartments", have their rooms' lights on at night, even if they are vacant, so the no-lights method is not reliable.

    "On the other side, there must be housing owners who have good light-proof curtains and those who go on a business trip. All these should be factored in, or its accuracy is dubious," Lu added.

    Chen Sheng, director of the China Index Academy in Shanghai, said the netizen activity shows the public, especially those who cannot afford the soaring housing prices, wants to bring the distorted housing situation to public light.

    "Housing spending plays an increasingly greater role in Chinese consumers' life. As we know, more than 60 percent of a family's daily expenses goes to buying or leasing an apartment. In this case, social fairness and government subsidies for the poor is of great importance and urgency," said Chen.

    To curb the housing prices from soaring higher, the central government imposed its harshest property policy in recent memory in April. But the housing market has only seen a shrinking trade volume, while the property price nationwide continued to rise over the past three months. Housing prices in China's 70 major cities rose 10.3 percent in July year-on-year, according to the latest figures released by NBS on Tuesday.

  • #2
    Re: 50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

    But, but, but...China property is a cash market... ;-)

    "My landlord has four other apartments after leasing one of them to me, and he has made himself a multi-millionaire by buying houses with mortgage loans over the past decade," Ma said.

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    • #3
      Re: 50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

      Is there anyway of determining a rough idea of average REAL/CASH equity in the Chinese property market?

      I know there's a lot of risky loans out there.......

      But how much of the supposed equity is really REAL/CASH equity and not domino like real estate collateral or shadow banking/2nd tier lending pawn type loans?

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

        The vacant apartments are investments. The "condo fee" is usually a lot less than it is in other countries.
        If inflation is running at 10% per year, and the interest rate is not too high, then it probably makes sense to a lot of people. The Chinese also buy lots of gold (those that can afford it) for similar reasons.
        A home that has never been lived in commands a premium over a "used" home. Thus, the investment is worth more if it remains empty.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

          Originally posted by aaron View Post
          The vacant apartments are investments. The "condo fee" is usually a lot less than it is in other countries.
          If inflation is running at 10% per year, and the interest rate is not too high, then it probably makes sense to a lot of people. The Chinese also buy lots of gold (those that can afford it) for similar reasons.
          A home that has never been lived in commands a premium over a "used" home. Thus, the investment is worth more if it remains empty.

          Nice, until the communist government decides to enact a law to acquire condos that are empty for more than 3 years to be converted into low cost housing.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

            Originally posted by aaron View Post
            The vacant apartments are investments. The "condo fee" is usually a lot less than it is in other countries.
            If inflation is running at 10% per year, and the interest rate is not too high, then it probably makes sense to a lot of people...
            Sure...but for much the same reasons a lot of people once thought it made sense to buy houses in Stockton, Vegas, Phoenix, Florida, Ireland, Spain, Dubai, to name just a few places...

            Originally posted by aaron View Post
            The Chinese also buy lots of gold (those that can afford it) for similar reasons.
            A home that has never been lived in commands a premium over a "used" home. Thus, the investment is worth more if it remains empty.
            What this actually demonstrates is just how absurd the misallocation of capital has become in China.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

              The wikipedia page “Chinese Housing Bubble” was created over three years ago.
              Average Chinese down payment = 30 % so owners have more initial equity than in the states.

              It must be/have been a tricky market to play. As in Thailand, the condos probably are not very desirable after ten years. Newer/better ones are always going up and being heavily promoted so your window as a speculator might be limited to about 4-5 years.

              The thing I rarely read is how much the pop will damage the Chinese and world economies. It’s always pure speculation.

              I found the “counting the black rooms” funny. Where I lived until 2010, the condos were mostly owned by Bangkok folks who came on the weekends or not at all. Condos with 400 units sometimes had eight lights on.. How many units were for sale? Next to none.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

                Originally posted by Thailand Notes
                I found the “counting the black rooms” funny.
                I echo that.

                If you count the 'black rooms' in downtown San Francisco in all of the new high rise developments, I think you'd end up with a 50%+ vacancy rate as well.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: 50% of apartments in Shanghai city are empty, Beijing is worst at 65%.

                  Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                  I echo that.

                  If you count the 'black rooms' in downtown San Francisco in all of the new high rise developments, I think you'd end up with a 50%+ vacancy rate as well.
                  altho... eye still use the 'black rooms' ratio at the hilton as a hint of how things are goin in wackeykey (waikiki)
                  at the time in 2001, eye had a great view (sarc) of the ewa side (west) of the hilton rainbow tower - on sep11/12, it was 100%, top to bottom lights....

                  3 (?) days later, when air travel resumed?

                  it was black, top to bottom.

                  will _never_ forget that sight.

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