Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

[javaljav]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

Examples:

1. The world bet against the US in 1981 when on Oct. 26 a non-callable 30-Year US Treasury Bond paid 15.21%. Bond market participants extrapolated double digit inflation off into a 30 time horizon. Anyone who understood that real regime change was underway in the US -- toward more open markets and more responsible monetary policy -- and bet the other way earned 15.21% interest on a risk-free bond until October of last year!

2. I saw a similar market error in 2001 when gold investors extrapolated 20 yeas of falling gold prices out into the infinite future. I identified the opposite kind of regime change from the one we had in the early 1980s, away from open markets and toward less responsible monetary policy. The result: continuously rising gold prices.

The big wins are identified when we are not caught up in the emotion of the times and current events but are instead quietly and diligently searching massive errors that markets make from time to time.

EJ, Please include where you see Natural Gas. Is there a massive short-term mispricing? You had earlier said the oil/NG ratio of .7 as peak. Now it has reached closer to 1.0. I posted a updated chart here. Would the ratio go further north...so what has changed from the time you thought .7 was the peak? TIA

[Mega]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

Yo Eric, My Main Man, Hows it hanging Dude!

I been watching the shop down here, some very Hot topics i can tell........the thurst of meaningful thought & ideas discussed................Have you sorted my appication to the CFR ?...Oh don't tell me that in hushed corrdoors of power "They" are not following "Mega"....

Anyways,.......Hows the Garden?
Mike

[Mega]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

Ps, i been drinking.........

[EJ]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

Glad you asked. Indeed this month we are updating the Nat Gas is Too Cheap trade that we started to watch in late 2009.

Gas relative to oil is looking about as cheap as it can possibly get, and the 100 Year of Gas in the USA bandwagon is filled to overflowing with ten thousand bankers, politicians, journalists, and consultants at the trough.

As Hunter Thomson would ask, What could possibly go wrong?

The answer to your question is continued here.

[phinolerun]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

I know we have obviously had a difficult time playing commodity price appreciation on anything we cannot efficiently store ourselves, but does the analysis include investment themes at least on the subject?

I recall CHK being mentioned a little while back. Considering it has been getting murdered lately, maybe these plays might soon present opportunity? This might really be a great play as Berman has suggested. The idea is that if the property CHK owns with natural gas soon becomes vastly more valuable due to sky rocketing natural gas prices, the stock will go for the ride. How's my aim?

[Iron Zeppelin]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

You are missing some good comments on the paid section.

Thanks a lot, I'll start doing that from now on.
I hadn't realized that the "new posts" button worked differently than on other forums.

[raja]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

My 2 cents . . . .

Commodities are toast in the coming global slowdown.
Peak oil will be a small countervaling force, and inflation will also make nominal losses appear less . . . but the overall effect will be reduced demand and profits. Forget making money on commodities for a long time . . . .

[raja]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

I hadn't realized that the "new posts" button worked differently than on other forums.

To say the New Post feature "works differently" is not accurate. Actually, it works incorrectly.

[javaljav]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

I recall CHK being mentioned a little while back. Considering it has been getting murdered lately, maybe these plays might soon present opportunity? This might really be a great play as Berman has suggested. The idea is that if the property CHK owns with natural gas soon becomes vastly more valuable due to sky rocketing natural gas prices, the stock will go for the ride. How's my aim?

Berman did not mention CHK. so in the context of his interview I would assume CHK is not a good low-cost producer with low leverage. Anything to contradict that?

[jiimbergin]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

To say the New Post feature "works differently" is not accurate. Actually, it works incorrectly.

Just curious, what does it do wrong? I really don't visit many other forums any longer so I don't know what it should do better.

[Master Shake]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

My 2 cents . . . .

Commodities are toast in the coming global slowdown.
Peak oil will be a small countervaling force, and inflation will also make nominal losses appear less . . . but the overall effect will be reduced demand and profits. Forget making money on commodities for a long time . . . .

I think Jim Rogers would beg to differ.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

The moment any large and stable sovereign becomes trusted could certainly leave a few docks miles away from the nearest puddle.

[raja]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

Just curious, what does it do wrong? I really don't visit many other forums any longer so I don't know what it should do better.

When you click on a button that says "New Posts", you expect it to show you the new posts. It doesn't, something which several posters on this thread have complained about.

[raja]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

I think Jim Rogers would beg to differ.

We're all guessing to some degree, even if we act like we know what we're talking about . . . .
The future is the most difficult thing to predict

[doom&gloom]

Re: Er....................anyone seen EJ ?

We're all guessing to some degree, even if we act like we know what we're talking about . . . .
The future is the most difficult thing to predict

I predict there will be a future. wanna bet on it?