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Here comes Russia

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  • #31
    Re: Here comes Russia

    Originally posted by oddlots View Post
    That little thing? They had greater ambitions once:



    ...


    I wonder if that thing has a "Fire Phasers" button?

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    • #32
      Re: Here comes Russia

      the Syrian question . . .

      Russia's announcement of major Mediterranean drills, is designed to prevent another attempt at manufacturing cover for an invasion, or lighter warmaking, such as an embargo on arms and ammunition, jamming of military communications, or sabotage. Russian officials say that there is no special plan for the Admiral Kuznetsov to call on the Syrian port of Tartus.

      The blow flies this time are being sent in to sniff and snuff out the prospects, before Assad and his men are corpses. The blow-fly zone is a Russian military trip-wire - the first such strategic move outside the borders of the old Soviet Union for more than 20 years.

      It isn't known whether (but it can be expected that) they will be supported under the Mediterranean by hunter-killer submarines to add uncertainty and nervousness for the British and US submarines around the US surface squadron, already in position in the Eastern Mediterranean. In the days when Greece was governed by prime minister Andreas Papandreou, the availability of Souda Bay in Crete for supply and armament of the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization fleet would have been in doubt if the target was Syria.

      The only Russian military announcements have been modest. "Of course," according to former chief of the Russian naval staff, Admiral Victor Kravchenko, "the Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean will be incommensurate with those of the US 6th Fleet, which includes one or two aircraft carriers and several escort ships. But today, no one talks about possible military clashes, since an attack on any Russian ship would be regarded as a declaration of war with all the consequences."

      Army General Nikolai Makarov, chief of the general staff, has been quoted by Russian news agencies as saying the deployment of the squadron to Tartus is "unrelated" to the sanctions and threat campaign being mounted against Assad.

      Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned against a one-sided arms embargo intended to foster civil war in Syria. "Groups, including those formed from citizens who penetrated to Syria from other states, have been actively supplied with arms," he said.

      "That is why proposals to introduce a ban on any arms supplies to Syria are quite unfair … We know how the arms embargo was applied in Libya. The opposition was receiving arms, with such countries as France and Qatar publicly stating that they have supplied those arms."

      To Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the Institute of the Middle East in Moscow, the Russian naval move, with its accompanying electronic warfare and intelligence elements, is a soft deterrent.
      Russian policy in the Middle East is not always reacting to that of the USA, while Syria does not necessarily face an American threat. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are more likely to intervene. However, despite all the difficulty of Bashar Assad's relationship with the people of Syria, everyone should just leave it as it is, for the safety of the whole region. Israel is really skeptical of Assad, but it doesn't want to destabilize the situation by toppling his government, as it realizes the possible outcome. Nobody wants another al-Qaeda-like outrage. Russia should not perform any military activities there, unlike the USSR, which wasted dozens of billions of dollars and still had to withdraw. It's good that today's Russia, run by businessmen, is clear of ideology, and it is pragmatic about its expenditures.
      Western media claims that Russia is doing no more than protect commercial interests in Syria are missing the point. Trade turnover between the two countries is small and dwindling - in 2008 it amounted to $1.94 billion; in 2009, $1.14 billion; in 2010, $1.12 billion. In order of magnitude, exporters to Syria start with Saudi Arabia, with 12% of the market; China with 9%; Russia with 7.5%; and Italy, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates with around 5% each. But these numbers don't include the arms and defense trade.

      During the Soviet period, Syria ran up a debt to Moscow for arms of more than $13 billion. In 2005, $10 billion of that was written off on the condition that Damascus kept buying new arms from Moscow. The current arms order-book is generally reported as worth about $3.5 billion. With enemies of long-standing on each one of Syria's land borders, it is perfectly obvious that Syria must now depend on the sea for its lifeline. It is obvious too that the Kremlin intends to remind everyone that it should stay open.

      Deliveries from Russia include the Bastion coastal missile system equipped with the Yakhont supersonic cruise missile for attacking ships as large as aircraft carriers. The range of the Yakhont is 300 kilometers. On Monday, Interfax quoted an unidentified military source in Moscow as saying 72 had been delivered to Damascus.

      According to a presentation a year ago by Igor Korotchenko, editor of National Defense magazine in Moscow, one of the operational purposes of the Bastion system is to protect the Russian squadron at Tartus, the base itself, and the coastline 300 kilometers to north and south - that's the entire Syrian waterfront. Russia's naval commander Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky said in said in August of 2010 that by 2012, the Tartus naval base will be able to accommodate cruisers and aircraft carriers for as long as the Kremlin wants to leave them there.

      According to Korotchenko, "To speak plainly, modern shipborne air defenses cannot intercept such missiles." To speak even more plainly, Syria under Assad isn't Libya under Gaddafi or Yugoslavia under Slobodan Milosevic.

      Among the major Russia-Syria arms contracts already delivered are 36 Panzir-1S air defense missile systems and upgrades of the Syrian Army T-72 tanks. Still to come are 24 MiG-29M/M2 fighters and 8 battalions of Buk M2E air defense systems. This makes Syria the front-line for an inventory of Russia-made weapons on which Russia itself depends for defense. A challenge to these arms in Syria would have been an indirect threat to the Russian defense establishment; now with the Tartus deployment, the threat is direct and strategic.

      http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/ML07Ag01.html

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      • #33
        Re: Here comes Russia

        Fascinating, Thanks for posting!

        Originally posted by don View Post
        In the days when Greece was governed by prime minister Andreas Papandreou, the availability of Souda Bay in Crete for supply and armament of the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization fleet would have been in doubt if the target was Syria.
        As EJ writes:
        Originally posted by EJ
        There will be no defaults that are not in the interest of the United States and U.S. allies. Any other prediction is indirectly a forecast for world war.
        I was not aware of the strategic military significance of Greece's internal politics. The U.S. interest in southern Europe is now slightly more clear. It rather raises the stakes, actually.

        To me, this makes the continued refusals of Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, etc. not just a statement of resentment towards American-style fiscal and monetary interventionist policies, but also a rebuke of America's aggressive military interventionism. I would assert that this resentment is shared by a significant portion of the regional population (remember, for example, Germany's pacifist stance on Libyan intervention?).

        So far this Anglo-Saxon / Teutonic struggle for regional dominance still seems to be couched in quite friendly terms. Would anyone care to speculate on what it might take for teeth to be barred in a more snarling rebuke?

        The asymmetric military balance obviously provides a significant deterrent to any escalation, but the cultural disconnect is increasing faster than I would have imagined, even three years ago.

        Any thoughts?
        Last edited by astonas; December 06, 2011, 01:58 PM. Reason: Added EJ Quote

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        • #34
          Re: Here comes Russia

          So far this Anglo-Saxon / Teutonic struggle for regional dominance still seems to be couched in quite friendly terms. Would anyone care to speculate on what it might take for teeth to be barred in a more snarling rebuke?
          As long as Germany 'hosts' US military installations (est @ 52,000 personnel) its independence will be on a short leash.

          according to Wikipedia:

          Existing installations


          US military bases in Germany as of 2008.



          The rationale behind the large number of closures is that the strategic functions of the bases, originally designed to serve as forward posts in any war against the Soviet Union, are no longer relevant since the end of the Cold War.

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