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Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

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  • Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

    It should be abundantly clear and obvious that the government and Wall Street want nothing more than to keep home prices inflated and are sticking out a giant middle finger to the majority of Americans. You might have missed the glorious news that our stunningly cunning Senate decided to reinstate the heightened loan limits for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA (aka the entire stinking mortgage market). Of course the lobbying arms of the housing industry went gaga for this policy even though it keeps prices further inflated in bubble states like California and New York. Good job politicians, I’m sure the checks from the FIRE industry will come in just in time for the 2012 election! Since our politicians care so deeply about working Americans, they are also examining a push at giving residential visas to foreigners looking to buy at least $500,000 in real estate. Forget about the fact that the median home in the U.S. costs more like $170,000 to $180,000. Then we have the Federal Reserve artificially keeping mortgage rates at historic lows and you hit the trifecta of housing welfare for expensive bubble ridden states while the overall economy falters.

    Ever notice how bipartisan hammering the savers is. Two party system my ass . . .

    Senate sells out again to the FIRE industry

    Showing that the Republicans and Democrats are largely two sides of the same soiled coin, the Senate went off the reservation and reinstated the higher loan limits:
    “(Housing Wire) The Senate voted 60-38 Thursday night to reinstall the elevated conforming loan limits on mortgages guaranteed by the government.

    The higher limits expired Sept. 30. Sens. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) introduced an amendment to H.R. 2112, a minibus spending bill. The Senate approved the amendment Thursday, and the Senate will take up the full bill after the recess, according to Isakson’s office.”
    Only recently the Federal Reserve, the same folks pumping up this bubble found that allowing the loan limit to drop would only impact 1.3 percent of all purchases! Do you really need any more information as to who the government is really working for? At this point, the financial industry has the government in a deep capture that is simply amazing. The fact that this was passed on a 60-38 vote margin shows how bought out the Senate really is.


    Success of bailouts? How about $7 trillion in lost real estate equity and 3 million foreclosures

    After trillions of dollars in bailouts this is what most home owners have to show for it:





    Since the housing bubble popped some $7 trillion in real estate wealth has evaporated. Part of this is a reflection that many potential buyers can only afford lower priced homes but also a reflection of the bubble bursting. So why in the world are we passing higher loan limits of $729,750 when the typical household makes $50,000 a year in the U.S.? Never mind that tiny detail, since the crash hit over 3 million foreclosures have concluded and this is in spite of banks creating a shadow inventory of between 4 and 6 million properties. It is also the case that banks are dragging their feet on higher priced properties.


    The pretending is going on with the mortgage side of the equation:




    While the $7 trillion drop represents a fall of close to 30 percent from the peak in equity, mortgage debt has decline by roughly 5 percent. In other words the game of pretend continues.


    More bi-partisan selling out for wealthy foreigners

    Picture this, we are in the late 1800s and early 1900s and millions are immigrating through Ellis Island. The only difference is that we are now checking to see who is coming in with suitcases full of dollars. We have another bi-partisan sham job at hand here:
    Times Union — Sen. Chuck Schumer is proposing a bill that would grant three-year residential visas to foreign nationals who buy homes in the United States.


    The Democratic New York senator describes his bill, which is co-sponsored by Sen. Mike Lee, a Republican from Utah, as a way to help the sluggish housing market by boosting demand. Foreign nationals would have to spend at least $500,000 on residential real estate, including at least $250,000 for a primary residence.


    “Our housing market will never begin a true recovery as long as our housing stock so greatly exceeds demand,” Schumer said, adding that the effort “won’t cost the government a nickel.”
    There would be plenty of demand if the government and banks wouldn’t keep prices artificially high! Instead of these sell outs working for their banking masters why don’t they sit the housing market on the shelf and focus on setting up an environment to create jobs instead of bowing down to their banking overlords? What utter nonsense and I seriously feel like we are in some Alice in Wonderland scenario. This will spur more speculation in bubble markets since I doubt there foreigners are going to flock to Cleveland or Detroit with their suitcases of cash. We have the TSA basically feeling up our citizens and for those with cash we are offering them a golden ticket? What in the world? This is such an absurd policy. What about being smarter and offering visas to scientists and innovators that can actually create jobs for other Americans? Instead we offering more financial shelters for those that can afford it and penalizing local households that will now need to contend with buckets of global money?

    If you really want to see what happens when you do a boneheaded policy like this just look to our neighbors in the north:



    Source: The Globe


    Here is an interesting on the ground perspective in regards to purchases in Canada:
    “How many are rich foreigners? 20-25%
    How many are poor foreigners (i.e. high ration financing)? Zero”
    Can anyone from Canada comment on this? I’m curious to hear how this has played out with locals since it definitely looks to be in a bubble and given our sold out government, might also be part of our future.


    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/t...rates-lower-t/

  • #2
    Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

    Middle of the last decade, Canadian were not as levered [as their US cousins] to property going into the global financial crisis. Credit conditions in Canada never got quite as silly as US sub-prime, and mortgage interest in Canada is not deductable [however there is a capital gains exemption on the sale of a principal residence].

    Unfortunately Canadians have used the intervening time since the financial crisis doing an excellent job closing the previous gap. While the rest of the world has been deleveraging, Canadians are setting new records for household debt.

    As for housing, I am still convinced that frothy markets like my hometown of Vancouver, are ripe for a bubble collapse dynamic. It seems to me that the Pacific Rim arc exemplified by Sydney, Shanghai and Vancouver is the last remaining vestige of the great global property bubble that started in the USA [California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, etc.] moved to Europe [Ireland, Spain, UK, etc.] then to the Middle East [Dubai et al], parts of Africa [Cairo being one example], and on to India and greater Asia.

    I doubt the trigger for the inevitable "adjustment" in the Canadian real estate market will come from anything internal...more likely a collapsing Chinese property market takes down the inflated commodity exposed markets in places like Perth and Vancouver, and perhaps that then ripples across the rest of those countries and the region as a whole...

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

      Sen. Johnny Isakson IS a realtor. Enought said.
      Sen. Robert Menendez has a history of being ethically impaired.
      Quite the dynamic duo.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

        Originally posted by don View Post
        It should be abundantly clear and obvious that the government and Wall Street want nothing more than to keep home prices inflated and are sticking out a giant middle finger to the majority of Americans....
        dont worry, We The People (the other 99%) ARE FLIPPIN IT RIGHT BACK AT EM!!!

        where ya been big guy? nice to see you back and in fine form....
        some of us have missed (y)our daily RE news/propaganda fix that you'd been so diligently diggin up/posting...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

          Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
          Middle of the last decade, Canadian were not as levered [as their US cousins] to property going into the global financial crisis. Credit conditions in Canada never got quite as silly as US sub-prime, and mortgage interest in Canada is not deductable [however there is a capital gains exemption on the sale of a principal residence].

          Unfortunately Canadians have used the intervening time since the financial crisis doing an excellent job closing the previous gap. While the rest of the world has been deleveraging, Canadians are setting new records for household debt.

          As for housing, I am still convinced that frothy markets like my hometown of Vancouver, are ripe for a bubble collapse dynamic. It seems to me that the Pacific Rim arc exemplified by Sydney, Shanghai and Vancouver is the last remaining vestige of the great global property bubble that started in the USA [California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, etc.] moved to Europe [Ireland, Spain, UK, etc.] then to the Middle East [Dubai et al], parts of Africa [Cairo being one example], and on to India and greater Asia.

          I doubt the trigger for the inevitable "adjustment" in the Canadian real estate market will come from anything internal...more likely a collapsing Chinese property market takes down the inflated commodity exposed markets in places like Perth and Vancouver, and perhaps that then ripples across the rest of those countries and the region as a whole...
          I have no subject matter expertise on Canadian real estate, but if I recall correctly, didn't Vancouver become a real estate hot spot in the early-mid-90's with the Chinese community leading up to the transition of Hong Kong?

          Did Asian migration/capital flight/setting up "bolt holes" play a role in the growth of Vancouver real estate and plant a seed for maybe version 2.0?

          Is it possible that China taking a serious hit in Q4 could accelerate that?

          Or would any capital flight from China into Asian friendly locations like Vancouver be lost in the noise of a broad spectrum crisis?

          It would be interesting to get a boots on the ground indicator of what the average cashed up Chinese entrepreneur/property investor is doing with his/her money right now and moving forward.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

            I read Garth Turner's Canadian Real Estate bubble blog at www.greaterfool.ca often, and I have been waiting for prices to drop since the bubble first peaked in 2008 (when the Conservative government brought in emergency low interest rates). At this moment, it appears that our housing bubble peaked for the second time in 2010, and is now starting the slide downwards. I have been watching house listings and prices in my city, Edmonton, and listings have increased a lot in the past year, but so far, only prices on ultra low end homes have dropped. A bit over a year ago, the cheapest price you could get a trailer (mobile home) was 90k. Now there are a couple as low as 30 to 40k. The next year should prove educational.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

              Originally posted by lakedaemonian View Post
              I have no subject matter expertise on Canadian real estate, but if I recall correctly, didn't Vancouver become a real estate hot spot in the early-mid-90's with the Chinese community leading up to the transition of Hong Kong?...
              Yes, that was the case in the run up of the handover of Hong Kong by the British to the Chinese. However, in that instance it manifested itself mostly in the downtown high rise condominium market, and a few select suburban districts in the Lower Mainland including Kerrisdale and the new subdivisions in Coquitlam's Westwood Plateau [where, for a time, it became fashionable to build houses with a separate western kitchen and a "wok" kitchen].

              Interestingly, the downtown Vancouver condo market peaked out in 1995 - two full years before the Hong Kong handover - and prices declined for almost 5 years. The city was famous for newly completed high rise residential buildings, completely sold out, but not a single light on in any apartment after dark. Sound familiar?



              Originally posted by lakedaemonian View Post
              Did Asian migration/capital flight/setting up "bolt holes" play a role in the growth of Vancouver real estate and plant a seed for maybe version 2.0?

              Is it possible that China taking a serious hit in Q4 could accelerate that?

              Or would any capital flight from China into Asian friendly locations like Vancouver be lost in the noise of a broad spectrum crisis?

              It would be interesting to get a boots on the ground indicator of what the average cashed up Chinese entrepreneur/property investor is doing with his/her money right now and moving forward...
              I suspect the "smart" and politically well connected money in China is already fleeing...most likely via Hong Kong. Anyone who hasn't already liquidated their real estate in mainland China has probably stayed at the party too long.

              The popular story that it is China that is driving the real estate market in Vancouver is probably only true at the margin now. Record low mortgage credit costs, increasing private sector balance sheet leverage, the belief that property prices only go up, and the ability to borrow more against those ever rising property prices seems to be carrying the day and keeping the fantasy alive. For now.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

                Hi Don,

                I disagree, this is not a good example of bi-partisanship.

                Vote results:

                http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LI...n=1&vote=00180

                60 Yeas - Dems: 51 Repubs: 8 and Bernie Sanders. Yes that Bernie Sanders.

                The Repub Yeas do include two of the usual New England bi-partisan suspects: Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

                  HR 2112 was passed by the Senate yesterday.

                  Anyone want to be on Obama vetoing it? lol Yeah me neither.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

                    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                    Yes, that was the case in the run up of the handover of Hong Kong by the British to the Chinese. However, in that instance it manifested itself mostly in the downtown high rise condominium market,....
                    ...
                    Interestingly, the downtown Vancouver condo market peaked out in 1995 - two full years before the Hong Kong handover - and prices declined for almost 5 years. The city was famous for newly completed high rise residential buildings, completely sold out, but not a single light on in any apartment after dark. Sound familiar?..
                    ....

                    its also of interesting note that IntraWest, developer of Whistler, after the B I G buildup for the olympics - then subsequently going tits up - has moved their HQ to DEN ?

                    coincidence?
                    Last edited by lektrode; November 01, 2011, 06:23 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

                      Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                      HR 2112 was passed by the Senate yesterday.

                      Anyone want to be on Obama vetoing it? lol Yeah me neither.
                      forgive the dumb question - but what is this one about anyway?
                      my first issue with this sort of farce of an excuse for legislation, is just how many amendments get tacked onto something that likely started as a fairly straightforward item - cant seem to find anything that tells in as few words possible what its about? (why i typically rely on the op/ed section, followed up by the letters to the editor of the wall st journal for insight - at least until eye found y'all here on the tulip ;)

                      but i did run across this commentary:

                      http://www.hillbillyreport.org/diary...ive-me-a-break

                      "Never before have so few with so much promised to take away so much from so many and then laugh their asses off as the so many with so little vote for the so few with so much."
                      A James Pence Quote


                      and hey!
                      they even have a section of OWS coverage:
                      http://hillbillyreport.org/tag.do?subjectId=746
                      Last edited by lektrode; November 01, 2011, 06:18 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

                        lektrode it's in Don's thread starting post.

                        mortgage loan limits

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

                          Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                          Hi Don,

                          I disagree, this is not a good example of bi-partisanship.

                          Vote results:

                          http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LI...n=1&vote=00180

                          60 Yeas - Dems: 51 Repubs: 8 and Bernie Sanders. Yes that Bernie Sanders.

                          The Repub Yeas do include two of the usual New England bi-partisan suspects: Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe.
                          These votes can be massaged to both pass, as intended, while preserving the dog-and-pony-show profiles of the participants. How often have we seen someone 'cross the aisle' when a crucial vote or two is needed. If not needed, the posturing can continue. (This note of cynicism brought to you by: when did the last effective FIRE prevention legislation pass?)

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

                            Maybe I spoke too soon...Well I did, first it has to be voted on by the House, but this:

                            http://www.housingwire.com/2011/10/2...ng-loan-limits

                            However, the Obama administration stated in its February white paper on the future of housing finance that allowing the conforming loan limits to expire in October would be the preferred first step to reintroducing private capital and spare taxpayers from additional risk.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Ever Newer Ways to Hammer Savers

                              If the Obama administration came out in a white paper against it and American Bankers Association was lobbying against it, than who lobbied for it?

                              Cui Bono?

                              Dr. Housing Bubble's narrative is incorrect.


                              November 4, 2011

                              ABA: Don’t Reinstate Higher Conforming Loan Limits

                              http://www.aba.com/News/WP2.htm

                              House conferees working on fiscal year 2012 appropriations bill (H.R. 2112) should resist efforts to reinstate the higher conforming loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-backed mortgages that expired on Sept. 30, ABA said yesterday in a memo.

                              Floyd Stoner, ABA EVP for congressional relations, explained that the association’s recommendations for ending Fannie and Freddie’s conservatorship and redeveloping a sound, functional private mortgage market include allowing those maximum conforming loan limits to be reduced.

                              “Re-imposing the higher loan limits runs counter to those recommendations and further delays even the most nascent efforts to restore a functional private mortgage market,” Stoner said. “Home prices have fallen dramatically in almost all areas of the country … and yet borrower demand remains weak. Higher loan limits have done little to increase demand or prevent home prices from falling.”

                              He added that it’s time to begin an ordered, reasonable, withdrawal of unlimited federal support for the mortgage market. “Keeping current conforming loan limits to encourage the reemergence of private capital in the housing finance market is a tool that can and should be deployed,” Stoner said.

                              Comment

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