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AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

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  • AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

    BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Argentina's vice president-elect is a hoodie-wearing, Harley-riding rock 'n roll guitarist who plays up the pace of the country's prosperity in every financial summit he attends as economy minister.

    President Cristina Fernandez chose Amado Boudou as her running mate not just because of his youthful appeal, a key factor now that she's a 58-year-old widow limited to a second term in office. Boudou also was a key player in several unorthodox decisions, such as nationalizing the pensions and using foreign reserves to pay down debt, that enabled her to spread the country's wealth among the poor and working classes.

    And this, in turn, helps explain how Fernandez came to be re-elected Sunday with perhaps the widest victory margin in Argentine history, and 54 percent of the vote.
    How did she and Boudou do this, in a world where leading economies are slowing and smaller countries are swallowing unpopular austerity measures in exchange for financial lifelines?

    Since Fernandez and her late husband and predecessor Nestor Kirchner moved into the presidential palace in 2003, they presided over one of the longest periods of economic growth in the country's history — growing twice as fast in real terms as the economic powerhouse of Brazil, and faster than any other nation in the world save China and India, according to the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research.

    The Kirchners also cut the wealth gap — the difference in income between the 95th and 5th percentile — nearly in half by nearly tripling social spending in real terms, economist Mark Weisbrot said.

    They rebuilt Argentina's industrial capacity after the 2001 economic collapse, creating jobs, lowering poverty and putting disposable income into many more pockets. They did it by either trying to mask or ignore the high inflation their spending encouraged, preferring to keep the economy moving. As a result, shops are open, business is thriving, and people are buying new cars and televisions like never before.

    How long this kind of spending can be sustained is an open question. La Nacion, Argentina's leading newspaper, warned in a front-page opinion column Monday that the nation's economic engines are running dry. Socialist Hermes Binner, the second-place finisher, said it's not clear whether Argentina can withstand a coming global crisis.

    On the other hand, Argentina still has near-record foreign reserves of more than $48 billion, thanks in large part to risky moves by Fernandez and her long-haired, 47-year-old economy minister, a confirmed bachelor with two motorcycles, a growing collection of electric guitars and a live-in TV journalist girlfriend who is almost half his age.

    While Boudou pursued the youth vote, the government was able to use funds generated by his decisions for "social inclusion," increasing pensions, child welfare and the minimum wage by about 25 percent last month to keep up with price increases. Fernandez even expanded the $3 billion family support program she created by presidential decree so that poor mothers get cash starting early in their pregnancies.

    All this has had a huge social impact: Among other things, public school classrooms are packed with children who would otherwise be working or on the streets.

    They were able to do this, fundamentally, by rejecting the kind of orthodox economic advice that has made the "Occupy" marchers so indignant worldwide.

    Boudou has insisted to the Club of Paris, a group of lender nations including the U.S. to whom Argentina still owes more than $6.5 billion, that the government would accept no conditions in exchange for a new payment plan, even as the same lenders force austerity measures on Greece and other suffering economies.

    "When a society expresses itself and decides in free and democratic elections to adopt a decision, this decision must be respected," Fernandez warned in her victory speech Sunday night, referring to those who would return Argentina to its 1990s model of neoliberal conservatism.

    It was Boudou who suggested to the Kirchners before becoming economy minister that they should renationalize the pension funds that had been privatized in the 1990s, a decade when the World Bank and International Monetary Fund had encouraged Argentina to take on impossible debts, leading to its world-record 2001 default.

    The private funds were forcing Argentine taxpayers to foot 60 percent of miserly minimal pensions, even as the funds took profits out of the country.

    Fernandez took Boudou's advice and in 2008, signed a law seizing $23 billion in private pension funds. This infuriated some investors, invited no end of attacks by the news media and made her even more of a pariah among financial analysts.

    But it also created a vast credit pool from which to invest in projects "made in Argentina," and provided an alternative to foreign debt, which they couldn't assume without conceding to an independent examination of Argentina's official inflation numbers. That, in turn, would have surely increased pressure for budget cuts, leading to a voter backlash.

    "This is why I value Amado Boudou so much," Fernandez explained in her authorized biography, published in August. "In two years, we've duplicated the funds that they built up in 12. It was an impressive business deal. Many of the things we've done were already thought of by others, but they didn't have the guts to act."

    Boudou also was the point man for Fernandez's ouster of the Central Bank president, which enabled the government to use its reserves to pay off foreign debts. Opponents predicted it would weaken Argentina's ability to support its currency. But reducing the debt load freed up money for more productive uses, in turn building reserves. Argentina now has accumulated much more than it had to cushion against previous global turbulence.

    When the new Congress is sworn in on Dec. 10, Fernandez, Boudou and his yet-to-be-named replacement as economy minister will benefit from narrow majorities in both houses for the first time since 2009's midterm elections. The president will be able to get laws passed, rather than having to invoke her emergency decree power to get things done.

    This is one advantage Fernandez has over President Barack Obama: Nearly her entire congressional opposition adheres to centrist or leftist parties. The only political bloc promoting ideas remotely similar to U.S. conservatives is the Pro party, led by Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, but it has just 11 seats in the lower house and none in the Senate.

    It remains to be seen if Macri can now rally what's left of a divided opposition.
    "Clearly the fragmentation has been an enormous error: Half or more of the Argentines were open to hearing a proposal for change, but it had to be articulated," Macri said Monday.

    Fernandez's agenda may include changes in banking regulations to more tightly control currency flows, and a union-backed proposal to require corporations to share 10 percent of their profits with their employees, which if passed could force businesses to open their books in a country where tax evasion still runs rampant.
    Such moves would surely raise new complaints that Fernandez is failing to ensure stability for investors.

    Her likely response: Argentina is open for any investor willing to meet her government's terms.

    "I'm not a genius or a fool," Fernandez said Sunday night, speaking of those opposed to her populist approach. "But I know that these people are the minority — powerful, but a minority. It depends, therefore, on the great majorities, comprising our workers and our middle classes, to not be knocked off track as has happened to us so many times in our history, ruining projects that served the nation.

    They are still out there, those who knocked us down, many times directed from abroad."

  • #2
    Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

    Interesting. However, I'm also reading that Argentina is proceeding against several (local) economists who have dared to dispute the government's inflation figures, claiming that the true rate is 200% higher [30% instead of ~10%].

    He didn't give details, but xPat's recent venture to BA left me with the impression it's one big mess.

    And that would be a shame since BA is one of our favorite cities.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

      The productive capital purchased (albeit indirectly) with the borrowed money offered by lenders to Argentina before 2001 didn't disappear after the default. Generally the expectation of lenders, of course, is that they should enjoy some of the output of that capital and it is interest payments that make that make a claim on that output possible. That's why they were willing to make the loans. Now the lenders are out their money and Argentina enjoys the whole of that output without sharing it with those that made it possible.

      How long can such an arrangement last? Perhaps indefinitely. But lets not pretend the government of Argentina is responsible for the production that makes feeding and clothing and housing millions possible. That productive capacity was made possible by others that now receive nothing. A hard lesson for them.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

        Originally posted by Scot View Post
        The productive capital purchased (albeit indirectly) with the borrowed money offered by lenders to Argentina before 2001 didn't disappear after the default. Generally the expectation of lenders, of course, is that they should enjoy some of the output of that capital and it is interest payments that make that make a claim on that output possible. That's why they were willing to make the loans. Now the lenders are out their money and Argentina enjoys the whole of that output without sharing it with those that made it possible.

        How long can such an arrangement last? Perhaps indefinitely. But lets not pretend the government of Argentina is responsible for the production that makes feeding and clothing and housing millions possible. That productive capacity was made possible by others that now receive nothing. A hard lesson for them.
        Since the banks are essentially counterfeiting my legal tender, taking the profits if they win and giving me the losses, shouldn't it be me who decides?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

          Another viewpoint

          http://www.themodernsurvivalist.com/?p=1675

          And so it ends for Argentina....

          As I write this, I can’t avoid feeling two very clear sensations. The first one I can only explain by saying that it’s like stepping out of a boat just as it finishes its slow, decadent sinking and finally goes under the surface. The second one is genuine sadness. Of all the posts I’ve written, this is without a doubt the saddest one I’ve written. I’m not talking about the loss of culture, standards of living or the death of a friend. Its not about the starvation of children of violence towards people close to me. It’s about all that and more. It’s about the death of a country itself.
          As the press all over the world talks about the political success of the current administration, and mentions the “flourishing”, prosperous Argentina, a clear minority which I’m part of sees things differently. It makes you wonder and ask yourself a few other things as well. Who writes all these praises? What kind of data do they use to make such positive statements? How can a country be booming economically, yet keeps having shantytowns grow at an accelerating rate, poverty, misery and decadence never backing down one inch, and the 3rd greatest inflation in the planet as the icing on the cake? After reading some of the emails people sent me on the “success” of Argentina, I wonder if its just innocent stupidity, lack of professionalism or if there’s more to it than meets the eye and there are other intentions behind it.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

            Originally posted by tastymannatees View Post
            Another viewpoint

            http://www.themodernsurvivalist.com/?p=1675

            And so it ends for Argentina....

            As I write this, I can’t avoid feeling two very clear sensations. The first one I can only explain by saying that it’s like stepping out of a boat just as it finishes its slow, decadent sinking and finally goes under the surface. The second one is genuine sadness. Of all the posts I’ve written, this is without a doubt the saddest one I’ve written. I’m not talking about the loss of culture, standards of living or the death of a friend. Its not about the starvation of children of violence towards people close to me. It’s about all that and more. It’s about the death of a country itself.
            As the press all over the world talks about the political success of the current administration, and mentions the “flourishing”, prosperous Argentina, a clear minority which I’m part of sees things differently. It makes you wonder and ask yourself a few other things as well. Who writes all these praises? What kind of data do they use to make such positive statements? How can a country be booming economically, yet keeps having shantytowns grow at an accelerating rate, poverty, misery and decadence never backing down one inch, and the 3rd greatest inflation in the planet as the icing on the cake? After reading some of the emails people sent me on the “success” of Argentina, I wonder if its just innocent stupidity, lack of professionalism or if there’s more to it than meets the eye and there are other intentions behind it.
            Didn't realize FerFAL had a website. Interesting to see another point of view, sad to see the MSM jump right in with the gov't stats.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

              Be carefull how much you believe of what comes from the bullhorn. The situation in Argentina is not nearly as story-book perfect as one might imagine from the post that started this thread.

              The economic nationalists will suggest there is nothing wrong with this move announced today, but it's important to recognize the underlying dynamic. Argentines are yet again moving their money out of their own country...
              Argentina Orders Oil, Mining Exporters to Repatriate Funds




              Comment


              • #8
                Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

                Originally posted by jpatter666 View Post
                Interesting. However, I'm also reading that Argentina is proceeding against several (local) economists who have dared to dispute the government's inflation figures, claiming that the true rate is 200% higher [30% instead of ~10%].

                He didn't give details, but xPat's recent venture to BA left me with the impression it's one big mess.

                And that would be a shame since BA is one of our favorite cities.
                I just saw a friend in Argentina about a week ago. He tells me inflation is much much higher than the official figures.

                The government is playing fast and loose with their figures there -- kinda like here in the US.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

                  Originally posted by wayiwalk View Post
                  Didn't realize FerFAL had a website. Interesting to see another point of view, sad to see the MSM jump right in with the gov't stats.
                  FerFal spreads a LOT of gloom and doom about Argentina. I understand it is NOT as bad as he makes it out, and certainly not as good as the government portrays it.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

                    http://www.insideinvestingdaily.com/...=327322&r=Milo

                    another recent article on Argentina..

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: AP: Argentina Prospers by Ignoring IMF, Bankers' Advice Since 2003

                      Originally posted by doom&gloom View Post

                      The government is playing fast and loose with their figures there -- kinda like here in the US.
                      You inspire me to a question: Is there a good, believable way to identify and compare (and ideally track) the "reality factor" of various governments? One would think those most willing to face reality would do a better job in surviving it, so this could be an important indicator for adjusting the international portion of a portfolio.

                      I've learned about several websites that do a great job re-evaluating US figures, and providing shadow values, but I've never seen a great summary relating how much each nation is trying to dodge the truth, and that might be changing over time.

                      Since I know that an immense amount of work goes into creating the shadow-US stats, perhaps asking for the same effort to be applied to all nations is a bit much. If such numbers aren't already published somewhere, is there a proxy for the accuracy of government figures that holds up pretty well? (Taking a stab in the dark, maybe a combination of transparency and corruption indices, with some other data thrown in?)

                      Anyone have any ideas on this?

                      Comment

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