A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

[Slimprofits]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...ff1809eb5a37ed

By The Associated Press – 20 minutes ago

Union Pacific Corp. reported a 16 percent increase in third-quarter earnings on Thursday, as higher prices made up for sluggish volume growth and high fuel prices.

Here's a look at the railroad's shipping categories and how they performed:

Agricultural — Volume down 3 percent, revenue up 9 percent

Automotive — Volume up 10 percent, revenue up 23 percent

Chemicals— Volume up 5 percent, revenue up 14 percent

Energy — Volume up 7 percent, revenue up 21 percent

Industrial Products — Volume up 8 percent, revenue up 24 percent

Intermodal — Volume down 6 percent, revenue up 8 percent

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

Thanks, babbittd.

chemicals, industrial products and energy( I presume mostly coal) all up are pretty hopeful.

I'd love to see a long-term chart across all carriers to see if UP just took market share, or if it's just a small uptick within a big long-term decline.

[lektrode]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

volume down, revenue UP - this looks more like inflation in freight rates than anything else?

[Slimprofits]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

Thanks, babbittd.

chemicals, industrial products and energy( I presume mostly coal) all up are pretty hopeful.

I'd love to see a long-term chart across all carriers to see if UP just took market share, or if it's just a small uptick within a big long-term decline.

One of them is CSX corp.

http://services.corporate-ir.net/SEC...Rpb25JbmMucGRm

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Merchandise

Agricultural

Agricultural Products- Volume decreased due to reduced demand for feed shipments as a result of limited supply, higher corn prices and decreased production from producers of poultry and pork.

Phosphates and Fertilizers - Shipments of fertilizers grew as farmers used more fertilizer to improve crop yields in response to high crop prices.

Food and Consumer - Volume declined due to decreased shipments of alcoholic beverages and appliances caused by higher beer inventories and continued weakness in the housing sector, respectively.

Industrial

Chemicals - Volume was flat as strength in demand for intermediate products, used in manufacturing consumer goods and automobiles, was offset by weakness in plastics due to high inventories. Intermediate products are key inputs in the production of both durable and nondurable goods as well as packaging.

Automotive - Automotive volume grew as a result of increased North American automotive production.

Metals- Volume growth was driven by higher domestic steel production resulting from strong demand from the automotive and energy sectors for products such as sheet steel and pipe. This increased production, along with international demand, resulted in a large increase in scrap shipments.

Housing and Construction

Emerging Markets- Volume increased due to improved shipments of cement, aggregates (which include crushed stone, sand and gravel) and waste as a result of overall growth in these markets.

Forest Products - Volume increased, despite the weakness in housing-related markets, with strength in shipments of pulp board and paper used in packaging for consumer products and a slight increase in demand for building products as a result of storm-related damage and low inventories.

Coal Shipments of utility coal declined as electrical generation was flat in the eastern U.S., natural gas prices remained low and utility stockpiles were slightly above target levels. This decrease was partially offset by higher export shipments driven by greater demand for U.S. coal in Europe, Asia and South America. The increase in revenue per unit reflects improved yield, fuel recovery and positive mix.

Intermodal

Volume was flat as growth in domestic shipments was offset by weakness in international volume. Domestic shipments increased as higher fuel prices led to over-the-road conversions. International volume declined due to difficult comparisons from an early peak shipping season in 2010, versus a later, more moderate peak shipping season this year. The increase in revenue per unit primarily reflects higher fuel recovery due to rising fuel prices and yield improvement.

Other

Other revenue decreased due to lower contract volume commitments and incidental charges partially offset by higher affiliate revenue.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

volume down, revenue UP - this looks more like inflation in freight rates than anything else?

lektrode, look again please.
volume shows up on those key industrial items at Union Pacific.
More tons of coal, more tons of basic chemicals, more tons of industrial equipment.

Unfortunately, later post for CSX somewhat disagrees, implying perhaps UP just grew it's market share for this freight

[charliebrown]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/Rai...ndicators.aspx

Look at this report. This if for entire industry for both U.S. and Canada. Very informative.
Total car loads up 1.1% for Sept y-o-y. Further breakdowns are available in the report.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/Rai...ndicators.aspx

Look at this report. This if for entire industry for both U.S. and Canada. Very informative.
Total car loads up 1.1% for Sept y-o-y. Further breakdowns are available in the report.

Excellent find, chaliebrown, very informative report ( and well written,with a sense of humor)

Sadly, it shows me no green shoots. Looks like rail is now moving a somewhat higher percentage of the freight than other modes, and there might be a tiny little up-tick that is way down in the noise and doesn't seem important when seen in context over several years and the whole industry.

[BigBagel]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

Along the same lines the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index gives real time data on diesel use by truckers. It nicely correlates with GDP data and comes out before that data.


http://www.ceridianindex.com/

[lektrode]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

lektrode, look again please.
volume shows up on those key industrial items at Union Pacific.
More tons of coal, more tons of basic chemicals, more tons of industrial equipment.
....

roger that T&B - was a bit too quick off the hip on that one - guess i should've said/meant to say that if the volume went by x %, but revenue went up by x-more%, isnt that indications of the rates going up as well?

[c1ue]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

The frame of reference is missing.

The earliest aar.org data posted on iTulip is from a jk post in 2009:

http://www.ww.itulip.com/forums/show...ts-1993-Levels

Looking at the categories in that post vs. the latest data (September 12, 2009 vs. October 15, 2011) as well as vs. the same period of 2011 (September 10, 2011) yields the following comparisons:

Week	Total weekly traffic	YTD traffic	YTD vs 2008
12-Sep-08	328,250	11,707,834
12-Sep-09	263,349	9,549,297	-18.44%
10-Sep-10	278,150	10,226,398	-12.65%
10-Sep-11	278,382	10,411,861	-11.07%
15-Oct-10	303,334	11,730,046
15-Oct-11	303,363	11,935,013

So the good news is - it isn't as bad as 2009. Only down 11% vs. 2008.

As you can see from the October 2010 and October 2011 levels, we're only 1 month behind or so.

Of course 2009 was apparently 1993 levels. Are we back up to the this millenium's levels yet?

Note also the original rail traffic link: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...8great-link%29

[doom&gloom]

Re: A look at Union Pacific's 3Q volume compare to earnings

Agricultural Products- Volume decreased due to reduced demand for feed shipments
as a result of limited supply, higher corn prices and decreased production from
producers of poultry and pork.

Phosphates and Fertilizers - Shipments of
fertilizers grew as farmers used more fertilizer to improve crop yields in
response to high crop prices.

Lots of issues around ag meats. Expect meat prices to go up in the coming year. Drought forced a lot of animals to early slaughter.