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Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

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  • Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...715110622.html

    Israel called 'ungrateful' by US Secretary of Defense.
    Turkey expels Israeli diplomats and decides to escort next Gaza flotilla.
    Border infiltrations, Israel embassy attacked, public row over natural gas sale prices in Egypt.

    TEL AVIV—Israeli leaders are struggling to navigate a Middle East in which its strategic pillar of the last few decades—a three-way axis with U.S.-allied Muslim powers—has crumbled, a day after rescuing its embassy staff from a mob in Cairo.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Sunday to reopen its Egyptian embassy after the staff retreated in the face of violent demonstrations Saturday morning. But the troubles in a second diplomatic mission in a week following a fallout in relations with Turkey underscores Israel's precarious position as ties with its two key regional allies are recast.

    Against the backdrop of tense relations with the White House, the shift heightens the stakes for Israel as it braces for a diplomatic onslaught at the United Nations next week. That is when Palestinians plan to mount a statehood bid, raising the possibility of an outbreak of mass protests on Israel's borders.

    Some Israeli experts suggested that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, who is set to visit Cairo on Monday, and Egypt's military rulers could overcome their historic rivalry and cooperate to on further isolating Israel.

    Israel's embassy was overrun overnight Saturday by hundreds of Egyptian demonstrators, tarnishing a symbol of the two nations 32-year-old peace. According to Israeli media reports, only White House intervention with Cairo triggered a commando-rescue operation that averted a lynching of six security guards.

    The Cairo demonstration came on the heels of a decision by Mr. Erdogan last week to downgrade ties, halt military commercial relations and consider a stepped up military presence in the East Mediterranean. Those actions came in response to Israel's refusal to apologize for its killing of Turkish activists on a ship that challenged Israel's Gaza blockade.

    "This should be very disturbing to us…there is a question about our place in the Middle East,'' said Ami Ayalon, a former head of Israel's Shin Bet Intelligence Service, in an interview with Israel Radio. "The Egypt that was the bedrock on which we founded our strategy has disappeared.''

    Careful not to insult Cairo by airing official worries in public, Mr. Netanyahu praised the interim military rulers for the rescue operation. But after months of repeated strikes on Israeli targets from Egypt—a gas pipeline, the border, and the embassy—some commentators raised concerns that a power vacuum left by the fall of President Hosni Mubarak is being filled by a street sentiment that attaches less value to the 1979 Egypt-Israeli peace treaty.

    No less disturbing to Israel has been the recent deterioration of ties with Turkey, which expelled Israeli diplomats this week after enjoying warm military and commercial ties since the 1990s.

    Some Israeli cabinet members and experts advocated apologizing for the Mavi Marmara killings, but Mr. Netanyahu went along with hardliners including Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman who say Mr. Erdogan had made the strategic choice to clash with Israel and denounce its Gaza blockade to boost its stature in the Muslim world.

    Having warned months ago of a diplomatic "tsunami'' headed toward Israel with the Palestinian's U.N. bid and the Arab Spring, Defense Minister Ehud Barak publicly urged Israel's government in a statement on Sunday to reconsider its regional strategy amid "this triangle of Turkey, Egypt, the negotiations with the Palestinians, and of the intimacy with the U.S., which has been weakened.''

    Last week, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates was quoted by Bloomberg News calling Mr. Netanyahu an "ungrateful'' ally who hasn't done enough to advance the peace process despite U.S. diplomatic and military support.

    The regional crisis reignited a debate in Israel over whether a peace push with the Palestinians would ease Israel's problems. But the prevailing opinion in the U.S. government seems to view Israel as more vulnerable and unable to influence the region.

    "The main effect, of what used to be called the Arab Spring is to introduce a much higher degree of uncertainty in how Israel looks at the region,'' said Dore Gold, a former ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Netanyahu, in an interview. "Can anyone guarantee to Israel that most of the regimes surrounding it will be there in five years time?''

    On Monday, Mr. Erdogan begins a regional tour with a series of meetings in Cairo. There, Mr. Erdogan is scheduled to meet with Egypt's High Military Council president, Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, and Prime Minister Essam Abdel Aziz Sharaf. He is also due to address a meeting of foreign ministers from the Arab League and meet leaders of the Tahrir Square protest movement. During the visit, he is also due to sign a series of bilateral agreements that will include energy and other economic accords, as well as the formation of a joint High Level Strategic Cooperation Council.

    Experts in all three countries say strong coordination between Turkey and Egypt against Israel is unlikely. Egypt sees itself as a leader of the Arab world, and Mr. Erdogan's outreach—particularly his expressed desire to visit neighboring Gaza before any senior Egyptian official—could be seen as a provocation.

    An official at Egypt's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that even as Egypt seeks closer economic and military ties it will be unlikely to take its cues from Turkey on international relations. Alon Liel, former Israeli diplomat said, however, that Turkish military and economic aid could be welcomed in Cairo, giving it considerable prestige and influence in influencing Egypt's political makeover.

  • #2
    Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

    what is going on with israel and turkey?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

      Instead of undergoing meaningful reforms they choose to distract the populace with a manufactured diplomatic crises because the only thing they can all agree on is that they hate jews.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

        Originally posted by radon View Post
        Instead of undergoing meaningful reforms they choose to distract the populace with a manufactured diplomatic crises because the only thing they can all agree on is that they hate jews.
        distract for what? Maybe I can shed some light on that:

        They're using it as an excuse to bring it warships into the Mediterranean.... where they're disputing the right of Cyprus to start drilling/exploiting for oil in their Exclusive Economic Zone (= $$$$). Turkey is way overstepping their bounds here with their intimidation tactics... the drilling is done by US firm (i.e. US will be very angry if Turkey does anything), and I doubt the other EU member states will allow Turkey to attack one of their members.

        References:
        http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/er...onour/20110908
        http://www.cyprus-mail.com/eu/eu-tel...-back/20110909
        http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/ar...hreat/20110910
        engineer with little (or even no) economic insight

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

          Quite a turnabout with Israel/Turkey relations in recent years.

          Just a few years ago there were quite close ties(quiet) between the Israeli/Turkish military....including large scale air force exercises in Turkish air space and to the point that some were speculating that IF Israel made a military strike on Iran that Turkey might have played a covert-ish supporting role.

          Times have certainly changed.....with Israel now deeply involved in military exercises with Greece...Turkey's long-term Aegean cold war adversary.

          And Turkey's military(which had the close ties with the Israeli military, NOT necessarily the Turkish people) has just had it's head handed to it.

          Turkey's military has taken on the role of protector and guardian of the Kemalist(secular) Turkish State and has involved itself in domestic politics frequently so possesses considerably more power than that of traditional western militaries.

          In the last couple of years the senior leadership of the Turkish military has been successfully purged to reduce the power and influence held by it.

          While it looks like relations may have permanently soured between Israel and Turkey, I seriously doubt it would lead to a hot conflict.

          I would think Israel has FAR more to fear from domestic instability in Egypt/Syria/Jordan/Saudi Arabia as well as losing the demographic/population war against Palestinians and being portrayed as the latest apartheid state.

          I also suspect diplomatic and military clashes over water could increase moving forward.

          News on Egypt, North East Africa and Nile river water resource sharing doesn't really make the news(I've never really seen it covered), maybe it should as it represents an under-reported catalyst for regional conflict.

          Back to Turkey.....I'm always wondered what their response would be to an Iranian nuclear weapons capability being developed.

          Turkey and Israel seemed like natural allies in working together to prevent it from happening.......but when(I reckon when, not if) it happens...how does Turkey respond?

          As the region's most powerful Muslim nation I wonder how the Turkish people, government, and military would respond to a nuclear armed Iran....rather than a nuclear armed Israel.

          Will it spur Turkey towards a nuclear weapons arms race?

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

            thats quite the overview ld - must say you appear extremely knowledgeable on matters strategic - doubt eye could come up with this insight in a week of reading conventional sources...
            thanks
            now, wheres grg - he'll have even more, from the perspective of the oil biz, as frank has observed, seems to be the Real Story on this? - no doubt.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

              I'd be keen to hear GRG's opinion and views as well.

              Turkey is a strange one I reckon....and strategically located and equipped to be a bigger player moving forward.

              They seemed quite keen to enter the EU, and the EU didn't seem too keen to have them.

              Now the tables seem to have turned...the EU is in trouble...and the Turkish economy seems to be weathering the storm far better than most(at least superificially) being one of the rare nations to receive credit ratings upgrades in the last few years.

              If offered full EU membership tomorrow, would it even be in Turkey's best interest to accept it now?

              With Turkey at a strategic crossroads in both time and space, will it decide to continue with NATO/EU or head down a different path?

              Doesn't Turkey possess the option of being a conveniently aligned nation maximizing it's leverage between the EU(If the EU finds Turkey's youthful demographics, numbers, and booming economy a benefit in exchange for Turkish access to EU markets) and Russia(partnering in energy distribution monopoly for $$$ over the EU)?

              I would think it in Turkey's best interest to play the "good guy" and play ball to a certain extent with Cyprus and such.....rather than risk being labeled an uncooperative Islamic pariah.

              Especially with it's traditional adversary Greece circling the gurgler....it would be bad form to rub that open wound too much.

              I would think Turkey has FAR too much momentum going for it to stuff things up via excessive diplomatic or military conflict.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

                Anyone else noticed how the world seems to be turning upside down at an ever faster rate? Thats a joke, of course, its obvious.

                Israel has always had its share of security problems, but I can't help but notice who is in the white house these days. Obama ain't exactly a champion of Israel. He barely conceals his disdain for the jewish state. (Yet Jews will turn out in droves again next year to vote for him.) Perhaps Turkey sees this as a now or never time to screw with Israel and play down its leadership's reputation for being the West's stooge? They know Obama will let them get away with stuff most US presidents never would.
                Last edited by flintlock; September 12, 2011, 09:49 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

                  Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                  Anyone else noticed how the world seems to be turning upside down at an ever faster rate? Thats a joke, of course, its obvious.

                  Israel has always had its share of security problems, but I can't help but notice who is in the white house these days. Obama ain't exactly a champion of Israel. He barely conceals his disdain for the jewish state. (Yet Jews will turn out in droves again next year to vote for him.) Perhaps Turkey sees this as a now or never time to screw with Israel and play down its leadership's reputation for being the West's stooge? They know Obama will let them get away with stuff most US presidents never would.

                  Ya, but what can Obama do? Who created the financial crisis? Who are the people in charge of Wall Street? Who weakened the US government, and strengthened China and Iran?

                  Israel exists only because the US is a superpower.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

                    They have nukes and would use them if need be. no, Israel does not only exist because U.S. is a superpower. they exist also because they are mean mother f***** . If anything, the U.S. has protected the surrounding countries from Israel.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

                      Originally posted by aaron View Post
                      They have nukes and would use them if need be. no, Israel does not only exist because U.S. is a superpower. they exist also because they are mean mother f***** . If anything, the U.S. has protected the surrounding countries from Israel.

                      If the US is not a superpower, do you think Israel can survive today? Let's assume that the US loses economic superpower status to China come 2020 and China becomes the economic+military superpower by 2035, Iran becomes the regional power.

                      Nukes are irrelevant for small states because geographic wise you get obliterated before you can defeat your enemy. Every major power in the Middle East will have nukes by 2035.

                      China is not concerned about religion or god or morals, the only thing in their mind is profit and resources, I'm sure you know that. Israel has no oil. Whether Israel exists or not is really irrelevant.

                      Or perhaps there is a purpose - to continue to drain resources from the enemy number one. ;)

                      One thing for sure, if the USA declines, Israel will follow along.
                      Last edited by touchring; September 13, 2011, 12:39 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

                        Originally posted by touchring View Post
                        If the US is not a superpower, do you think Israel can survive today?

                        Absolutely..may not be easy....but absolutely....

                        China is not concerned about religion or god or morals, the only thing in their mind is profit and resources, I'm sure you know that. Israel has no oil.

                        But Israel has technology that China covets.......have a look at what happened with the stillborn IAI Lavi fighter Israel developed using US funds.

                        The US has had issues with Israel transferring military tech to Israel.

                        Surely any Israeli tech deals with China possess an angle towards China's security council vote and diplomatic/economic power being used to potentially support Israel.


                        One thing for sure, if the USA declines, Israel will follow along.
                        Nations don't have friends....no matter how much government and lobby groups at times try to get folks to think so..they have interests.

                        Israel has also made considerable efforts to cultivate rather large arm sales and economic development with India(future Security Council member and regional superpower)...same can be said with Brazil to a lesser extent.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

                          Originally posted by aaron View Post
                          They have nukes and would use them if need be. no, Israel does not only exist because U.S. is a superpower. they exist also because they are mean mother f***** . If anything, the U.S. has protected the surrounding countries from Israel.
                          Yes and no.....Israel does possess a considerable nuclear arsenal and considerable conventional military capability.

                          But if you ask professional soldiers/sailors/airmen with more than just superficial understanding of their Israeli and Arab(Syrian/Egyptian/Jordanian/Saudi) peers, they will almost to a man tell you that Israeli's are mean !$#$!!$ because they have historically fought 4th rate military forces. It's easy to look like a superstar when your opponent is functionally retarded.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

                            Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                            Anyone else noticed how the world seems to be turning upside down at an ever faster rate? Thats a joke, of course, its obvious.

                            Israel has always had its share of security problems, but I can't help but notice who is in the white house these days. Obama ain't exactly a champion of Israel. He barely conceals his disdain for the jewish state. (Yet Jews will turn out in droves again next year to vote for him.) Perhaps Turkey sees this as a now or never time to screw with Israel and play down its leadership's reputation for being the West's stooge? They know Obama will let them get away with stuff most US presidents never would.
                            But the question I have for that is "What does Turkey Gain/Lose from that?"

                            I suspect it's superficial-ish diplomatic noise......surely there's WAY too much money for Turkey to make flooding EU with it's products/services and/or squeezing every penny they can out of the EU and every other destination for it's role as an energy transit point for the Kablamistans in partnership and/or competition with Russia.

                            Causing trouble is bad for business, no?

                            And business for Turkey is likely to be good, yes?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Maybe the big conflict won't be US-China, it will be Israel

                              What? Everyone is afraid to call the Zionists Facist Occupiers? They have nothing to do with Judaism, so don't bother using the anti-semite canard. . .

                              http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/op...=1&ref=opinion

                              Ya makes your choices, and ya takes your chances. . .

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