Foreign Holders of US Treasuries: March 2011

[c1ue]

Another month, another failure to fund the ongoing deficit...

Net sales to foreigners: $4.9B
Sales to Official Foreign holders: (-)$10.6B

Top buyers (the usual suspects): UK - 29.7$B, Japan - $17.6B, Sweden - $3.6B, Oil Exporters - #3.5B

Top sellers (BRIC): Caribbean Banking Ctrs - (-)$14.6, France - (-)$12.5B, China - (-)$9.2B, Russia - (-)$2.7B, Brazil - (-)0.8B, India -(-)$0.5B

											New 5/	Old 5/
											Series	Series
	Mar	Feb	Monthly	Jan	Dec	Nov	Oct	Sep	Aug	Jul	Jun	Jun	May	Apr	Mar
Country	2011	2011	Change	2011	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010
China, Mainland	1144.9	1154.1	-9.2	1154.7	1160.1	1164.1	1175.3	1151.9	1136.8	1115.1	1112.1	843.7	867.7	900.2	895.2
Japan	907.9	890.3	17.6	885.9	882.3	875.9	873.6	860.8	832.5	817.3	799.9	801.2	784.8	793.8	783.3
United Kingdom 2/	325.2	295.5	29.7	277.9	271.6	242.5	209	190.5	181	107.2	94.5	363.6	350.7	321.1	279
Oil Exporters 3/	222.3	218.8	3.5	215.5	211.9	204.3	207.8	215.4	211.7	209.3	210.2	216.3	228.6	232.9	223.4
Brazil	193.5	194.3	-0.8	197.6	186.1	189.8	183	181	170.5	167.7	163.8	158.5	161.5	164.4	164.5
Taiwan	156.1	155.9	0.2	157.2	155.1	154.4	154.5	153.3	153.4	153.8	151.9	128.6	126.2	126.9	124.8
Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/	154.8	169.4	-14.6	166.5	168.1	158.8	146.3	157.7	172.6	164.1	178.9	165.9	166.3	153.2	148.2
Russia	127.8	130.5	-2.7	139.3	151	167.3	176.3	173.3	173.7	175.7	168.2	123.4	126.8	113.1	120.1
Hong Kong	122.1	124.6	-2.5	128.1	134.2	134.9	135.2	131.9	133.9	131.2	137	141	145.7	151.8	150.9
Switzerland	111.6	110.4	1.2	107.6	107	107	107.7	110	113	111.8	106.5	100.1	84.4	80	78.8
Canada	93.3	92.9	0.4	86.5	76.7	76.7	66.1	56.5	44.9	43	35.9	93.7	84.8	81.9	77.1
Luxembourg	81.1	81	0.1	83	86.4	81.9	78.5	86.1	79	98.9	97.6	96.6	75.6	76.9	83.9
Germany	59.8	58.3	1.5	61.1	60.5	58.6	58.2	57.9	56.8	55.3	52.2	54	55.8	54.8	53.7
Thailand	57.1	57.6	-0.5	56.5	52	52.2	52.7	50.4	47.3	40.8	35.7	49.3	46.3	46.9	43.5
Singapore	55.7	66.7	-11	57.8	72.9	62.2	66.4	56.7	55.4	55.3	53.3	50.5	40.6	42.4	45.5
Ireland	44	42	2	44.4	45.8	50	48.9	51.5	49.5	51.1	55.7	48.3	48	45.7	43.3
India	39.8	40.3	-0.5	40.6	40.5	39.7	40.1	40	37.9	38.4	35.4	36.4	29.3	31	32
Turkey	36.2	34.3	1.9	32.9	28.9	29.1	27.8	27.8	29.7	26.7	25.7	25.5	27.6	27.9	28.7
Korea, South	32.5	31.2	1.3	31.9	36.2	39.8	39.4	38.7	39.9	37.6	37	38.7	37.8	38.7	40.1
Belgium	32.2	32	0.2	32.1	33.2	33.4	33.4	33.8	51.9	34.3	34.8	17.2	17.6	18.5	17.1
Poland	28.4	27.3	1.1	26.3	25.5	27.2	28.8	28.4	26.6	24.8	25.7	23.2	23.4	24.6	23.4
Mexico	28.1	34.6	-6.5	34.4	33.5	32.6	34.8	36.8	36.1	33.5	33.1	33.2	34.2	33.1	36.1
Netherlands	25.1	24.9	0.2	25.4	22.7	22.1	22	23.1	25.1	24.2	24.7	17.3	17.6	19.6	19.2
Italy	24.2	24.3	-0.1	24.6	23.7	23.6	23.7	24.1	23.6	23.2	22.7	20.1	20.8	20.3	20.5
Philippines	23.4	22.7	0.7	22.8	20.1	19.2	18.5	18.5	19.3	20.3	20	14.3	14.4	15	14.6
Norway	21.4	20.8	0.6	19.4	19.6	19	18	18.1	17.5	16.3	15.4	16.1	15.2	15	14.6
Sweden	21.3	17.7	3.6	17	16.8	15.2	16.1	15.4	16.8	17.7	17.6	16.5	13.4	15.3	16.3
Colombia	20.2	20.1	0.1	19.8	20.2	20.3	16.7	16.3	16.5	16.4	16.4	17	15.7	15.7	16.2
Israel	18.9	19.8	-0.9	19.9	20.6	20.5	17.9	17.6	16.3	17.9	18.3	18.4	20.1	19.9	22
France	17.7	30.2	-12.5	30.2	15	20.1	23.5	23.3	26.1	19.8	24.2	36	37.9	40.6	39.8
Chile	16.7	16	0.7	15	13.9	13.4	13.4	13	13	13.1	12	12.2	12	12	11.9
Egypt	15.3	14.9	0.4	20.7	26	29.8	30.5	30.6	29.2	25.9	25	29.4	28	21.1	21.4
Malaysia	11.2	11.3	-0.1	11.3	11.5	11.7	11.6	11.5	11.7	11.7	11.1	11.1	10.5	10.9	11
Australia	10.3	12.6	-2.3	14.7	14.9	14.9	15.7	18	15.5	19.2	18.4	14.5	14.1	17.9	14.4
All Other	199.1	196.9	2.2	194.4	193	200.5	201.5	204.2	206.7	206.8	199.1	171.1	174.6	168.1	163.4
Grand Total	4479.2	4474.3	4.9	4453	4437.9	4412.5	4372.9	4324.1	4271.8	4125.3	4069.9	4002.8	3958.1	3951.1	3877.8
Of which:
For. Official	3175.7	3186.3	-10.6	3176.9	3188.4	3211.6	3227.2	3192.1	3144.1	3099.2	3071.4	2690.3	2690.8	2715.1	2703.3
Treasury Bills	414.9	432.4	-17.5	438.9	462.3	499.2	531.3	495.4	486.9	473.5	454.4	454.4	466.9	498.5	501.3
T-Bonds & Notes	2760.8	2753.9	6.9	2738	2726.1	2712.5	2695.9	2696.7	2657.2	2625.8	2617	2235.9	2223.8	2216.6	2202

[mmr]

Re: Foreign Holders of US Treasuries: March 2011

As always, "UK" probably = "China"

As the trade deficit has been running at something like "only" $40-$50 billion per month, wouldn't it be impossible for foreign investors to fund more than that amount of the federal budget deficit (averaging over $120 billion monthly of late) even if they were consciously trying to do so (which they clearly aren't)?

[c1ue]

Re: Foreign Holders of US Treasuries: March 2011

As always, "UK" probably = "China"

I think this has been true, but as 'reassessments' of China's holdings continue to occur, this is less and less true.

Note that the June 2010 was the 2nd 'reassessment'; it is already getting close to the point where 100% of all China/US trade imbalance since 2004 must have gone into Treasuries. Another huge reassessment will bring this number closer to 2000 or 1999 - at which point I have to say it is no longer believable.

As the trade deficit has been running at something like "only" $40-$50 billion per month, wouldn't it be impossible for foreign investors to fund more than that amount of the federal budget deficit (averaging over $120 billion monthly of late) even if they were consciously trying to do so (which they clearly aren't)?

Certainly true.

But then again, as you well know, having a 'foreign' base allows much shenanigans in the form of fractional reserve activity.

By any measure, the Fed's official activity in the Treasury market has overshadowed that of foreigners since the QE series began.