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Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

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  • Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

    Why is are economy infested with bubbles?

    Because its a proven vehicle of wealth transfer.

    From the working, production economy, to the parasitic financial.

    You have to get there somehow, right boyz.


    The explosive growth of student loan debt is troubling for a variety of obvious and not so obvious reasons. More needed attention is being drawn to higher education and questions are being sharply directed at the way college education is financed.

    The bubble in higher education has similar parallels to the bubble experienced in housing. Owning a home is a good thing and has been part of our national identity for close to a century. Yet during the mania very few questioned the method of financing this otherwise solid financial investment. It all depends on how you finance the purchase. The same dilemma is occurring with pursuing a college degree. Very few will argue that going to college is a bad idea. Knowledge is power as we all know. Yet is it necessary to go to a school just because they added a $10 million Olympic sized pool? The additional bells and whistles are similar to the peak bubble days in California where sellers tried to convince buyers that the new whirlpool and granite counter tops added tens of thousands of dollars in value. Value by what standard? Most of the mania was fueled by easy access to debt greased by Wall Street and backed by the government. The fact that we are approaching $1 trillion in student loan debt is staggering.


    The chart of the student loan bubble


    Source: Federal Reserve

    The Federal Reserve now publishes a small snapshot of student loan debt encompassing debt covered by the Federal Government and Sallie Mae. The above chart should cause anyone to pause and consider what is happening. You can even run a quick measure to see where things stand today:
    1990 GDP: $5.7 trillion
    2000 GDP: $9.9 trillion
    2009 GDP: $14.1 trillion
    Now we can measure this against the student debt portion provided by the Federal Reserve data:

    Fed/Sallie Mae student loan debt data:
    1990: $19 billion (0.33 percent of GDP)
    2000: $84 billion (0.84 percent of GDP)
    2011: $355 billion (2.5 percent of GDP)
    Now keep in mind that we are only looking at the small fraction of loans covered by the above data. As stated before total student loan debt including debt from private banks is closer to $1 trillion which is over 7 percent of GDP. College tuition and fees are certainly outstripping inflation by many measures. What is troubling about this trend is that it is being financed by debt backed by the government. Banks are willing to loan money knowing the government is on the hook if students fail. The spin is also disturbing. The evaporation of blue collar industries does make college a more important tool for future economic success if one wishes to enter the middle class (i.e., purchase a home and save a bit of money to avoid eating off the dollar menu every day).

    Just like in housing, every home benefitted during the housing bubble. A large portion of the money is being funneled to for-profit colleges. The Government Accountability Office put out a report showing the costs of various programs at different schools:


    Source: GAO

    Now look at the difference here. Take web page design. At a public college this should cost you $2,000. A reasonable amount of money. Yet the for-profit college is charging over $20,000! These institutions are nothing more than the Real Colleges of Genius that gouge students through deceptive loan practices and guess what? You remember that earlier chart showing the explosion of student loan debt owned by the government or Sallie Mae? A big player in that is coming from the for profits.
    The GAO also found incredible amounts of fraud when they sent undercover agents to investigate these schools:



    Same accreditation as Harvard? Barbers can earn up to $150,000 to $250,000 a year? This is the kind of misleading nonsense that is being financed with your government backed money. I think public colleges do serve a solid purpose and provide a great benefit. However the mania is exploding in these for-profit schools that are the subprime mortgage brokers of the college world. And this is where the growth is at:



    Nice to sell a product where results are merely a marketing ploy and where close to 40 percent of students end up defaulting on their debt (debt that you cannot walk away from). The colleges don’t care because there is no accountability just like the mortgage brokers that pushed off junk loans to people during the housing bubble. Wall Street is happy because look at the above chart. And when it all goes boom it is the sucker taxpayer that is on the hook. This is the new model of economic growth in our nation. Wall Street has learned to turn everything into a bubble including education with the deep pockets of taxpayers. Yet measurable results are nowhere to be found. Wall Street doesn’t want money flowing into public schools because there is little profit to be had. The government here is merely the dumping ground for the bad loans as it is the case with the housing bubble.

    The GAO conducted the study because:



    Think about the above. Many of the for-profit colleges derive 90 to 100 percent of their income because of federal student loans. Students are lured in with late night commercials or aggressive sales teams that simply do not care about the actual education a student will receive. It is all about churning sales and suckering people into a false mantra. “Every person should have a college degree” which rings eerily similar to “every person should own a home.” At what cost? The only reason this is happening is because of Wall Street and government backed loans. Thanks to this new model, the for-profits are operating in the new world of subprime colleges. Yet there is no walking away from student loan debt which puts an albatross on an entire generation of college students. Will these people even be able to purchase a home in the future? Will their degree actually increase their earnings potential? Here is a case of a student out in Los Angeles:

    “(CNN Money) I moved to Los Angeles when I was 21 to pursue a career in screenwriting. Now, I’m 34 years old and still barely getting by.
    I’m a television writers’ assistant, and I’ve worked on some great shows like Desperate Housewives — but since I’m on a freelance basis, my income is far from steady.

    I’ve taken side jobs waitressing, writing dating ads, and even pet-sitting. Since I’m not making enough money to pay rent, I gave up my apartment and decided to couch-surf with a different friend each week for 52 weeks.

    It’s been more than a year now, and I’m still basically, homeless. To make matters worse, I have $99,000 in student loans to pay off (don’t go to two private schools in a row!).

    The good news is, even though I still barely have an income, I am extremely happy and have started to write a book about the whole experience. I’m calling it 52 Weeks, 52 Couches: How I Slept my Way Through Hollywood (Without Sleeping with Anybody) and I hope to sell it soon. In the meantime, I’ll continue surfing from job to job, and couch to couch.”
    Nearly $100,000 in student loan debt and no secure job to be found. You tell me if we are in a student loan bubble?

    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/s...claim-harvard/


    if we take it all, won't she die Dr T?

    That depends . . . .
    Last edited by FRED; March 04, 2014, 02:59 PM.

  • #2
    Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

    I am now in the "sixth inning" of saving for my son's college. Things were going great until 2008. I moved my Son's account from stocks to bonds and didn't lose anything, however I did not move back in. I was convinced we were going to stick around S&P 700-800 with high volatility, then the market recovered so quick, I thought it is too high now. I have about 1 years worth of tuition saved for. I think stocks are too risky with a 7 year time horizon, and bonds have a negative yield.
    So if I am really lucky, I might be able to scrape up another 1 year before it is time for him to enter school.

    If I don't have enough saved, and scholarships etc, don't cover should I mortgage my house, instead of going the student loan route? I understand there is no out from student loan debt. I am raising my son to pay his loans back, and I have no intent of defaulting, but the two great wild cards for the middle class as I see it now are a long term stint of unemployment or underemployment, and catastrophic illness. So if any of these were to occur, I could wiggle out of my mortgage, where my son could not wiggle out of his student loans.

    I can live without my house. It is just building. As it stands now a house is just a big target for the government to tax.
    It reduces mobility, and makes you less willing to pull up stakes when conditions deteriorate.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

      You have an admirable grasp of the all-new American paradigm and the enviable traits of a survivor

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

        Did student loans really increase that quickly in the late 2000s, or are these charts reflecting the reforms wherein the Federal Government cut out the private lenders from their middle-man position?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

          Originally posted by Munger View Post
          Did student loans really increase that quickly in the late 2000s, or are these charts reflecting the reforms wherein the Federal Government cut out the private lenders from their middle-man position?
          I think you're right.

          A dual blow of tight credit markets and lower demand for private loans due to more general aid offerings and students opting for cheaper schools had sent volumes tumbling over the past few years. To add to the pain, lenders lost another major revenue stream last summer as the U.S. Department of Education brought in-house the origination of those loans. A number of lenders bowed out of the business, unable to extend private or federal loans.

          Sallie Mae is the largest player in the federal student-loan market and continues to earn interest from existing loans. It is boosting those earnings by snatching up loan portfolios as other lenders exit the market.
          http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...16-708613.html

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

            Dr Housing Bubble posted a recent piece I put on the 'tulip where he showed that a Cali UC education had increase by a factor x18 times the price of housing.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

              Originally posted by don View Post
              Dr Housing Bubble posted a recent piece I put on the 'tulip where he showed that a Cali UC education had increase by a factor x18 times the price of housing.
              I wouldn't doubt it.

              I've posted some of these before.







              They've certainly been spending the money...


              Over the past 40 years, college enrollment has more than doubled...

              ...but as a percentage of population, it really hasn't changed much from year to year. Still, all those graduates over the years do add up. Have to wonder if 30% of us really needed a college education to do our jobs.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

                Originally posted by Munger
                Did student loans really increase that quickly in the late 2000s, or are these charts reflecting the reforms wherein the Federal Government cut out the private lenders from their middle-man position?
                I don't think it is an either/or proposition.

                Part of it is the government taking on student loans directly, but the other part is the recession + credit crunch leading a lot of people to take on student loans not just for education (which is increasing in cost), but for living expenses in the meanwhile. Add on the not insignificant effect of slower repayment due to unemployment/static wages - all winds are blowing in the same direction.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

                  Time for the typical C student slacker to re-consider college. It still pays, especially for go-getter, very bright and motivated students. But those who think college a rubber stamp for success may want to reconsider. There may be better returns for some to put that money into a business or vocational training.

                  Some good money being made out there by some in doing things that people used to do for themselves. I like to study small businesses. Some of the most basic, simple stuff can be very lucrative. There is a gutter cleaning service in my town that has to be making good money. They charge around $120 to send two guys out to clean your gutters. My neighbor said they took about 20 minutes to from the time they pulled up to the time they drove away. They also install gutter guards for a hefty fee. Even averaging in drive time, etc, they could easily be hitting 8 a day. Translates to roughly $1000 day for two low skilled workers. Figure $350 day to put those guys in a van and send them out, insure etc( probably less). Figure 75% efficiency at keeping them busy due to rain, schedule, demand, etc. The owner could be grossing $2000 week PER CREW! He has at least five or six vans I see parked at his business. Do the math.

                  The beauty of that business is its low skill, easy to find out of work roofers, siding guys, etc who are used to heights. There is no hassle of scheduling because they simply put your home on a list to clean and they leave a bill when they are completed. You mail in or pay with credit card online. Work slows? You simply lay off workers. Theres no big learning curve or training costs to recoup. No union contracts. No severance. This is just an example of small business idea making someone a good income. Leave your ego at the door and there is still money to be made in America. All too often we look for the most complicated field to pursue. I just think some of these fields are not worth the cost anymore. I'm all for pursuing one's dreams. But I can do a lot of dreaming with money in the bank vs massive debt.

                  I'm not saying this is for everyone, but if I had to choose between dropping $100k for a mediocre student to get some BS degree, vs spotting him $20k to get a business started, I might consider the money well spent.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

                    Sound advice.

                    Another factor in the higher education frenzy has been decades of facile cheerleading by both government and business is re-education as the answer to de-industrialization.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

                      Shocking . . .

                      The New York attorney general’s office is investigating whether a for-profit school founded by Donald J. Trump, which charges students up to $35,000 a course, has engaged in illegal business practices, according to people briefed on the inquiry.

                      The investigation was prompted by about a dozen complaints about the Trump school, which the attorney general, Eric T. Schneiderman, has found to be “credible” and “serious,” these people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the investigation was not yet public.

                      The inquiry is the latest setback for a six-year-old company, known until last year as Trump University, that already faces a string of consumer complaints, reprimands from state regulators and a lawsuit from dissatisfied former students.

                      (New York and Maryland have told the company to drop the word “university” from its title, saying it violated state education laws. The school was renamed as the Trump Entrepreneur Institute in 2010.)

                      It is likely to cast an unwelcome spotlight on Mr. Trump’s corporate empire, which relies heavily on his reputation as a savvy and successful businessman.


                      Trump's school is unique among the schools: it is built almost entirely around the prestige and prominence of a single individual. Mr. Trump — the real estate developer, product salesmen and reality-television star — said he created the university in 2005 to impart decades’ worth of his business acumen to the general public. He aggressively marketed the school, promising students that his hand-picked instructors would “teach you better than the best business school.”

                      Like the apartments that bear his name, the classes carried a Trump premium: many ranged from $1,500 to $35,000 each.


                      The Better Business Bureau gave the school a D minus for 2010, it’s second-lowest grade.

                      For-profit schools have become big business in the United States, especially as the unemployed seek a way back into workforce.

                      http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/20/ny....html?_r=1&hpw


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                      • #12
                        Re: Another Open Book Quiz on Student Loans

                        Well said. Like everybody can become a computer programer, and oops, by the way, those programming jobs have been outsourced to India.

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