Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

[*T*]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Let me explain why I posted this.

I think that EJ's sell silver call was justified - it had gone too far too fast. I had already sold all my silver some time before.
But since the drop came off the back of speculative froth and four (!) margin hikes, I reasoned this is not the top and was just a wicked correction in the formation of a larger bubble. Having seen how far it can go, and after a 30% drop, the risk/reward just changed substantially in favour of the buyer. I don't think tops are formed in one sudden dump, and silver has had 30% dumps before.

Then I saw the notice, and it indicates to me that
1) physical supply is tight
2) the volatility is due to the futures market, not the physical market selling
3) physical traders are buying the dips.

So, I just bought a little.

My allocation went from:
100% gold, 0% cash, to:
99.5% gold, 0.5% silver, 0% cash.

I would like to hold a little more, but as that means selling some gold, it incurs friction.

[phinolerun]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Have we dreamers among us?

Example of a precious metal that bubbled up in an even more
thinly traded market than silver, but was never talked up by
popular booster sites with magical properties applied to it: Rhodium

http://www.kitco.com/charts/liveplatinum.html

I think platinum is probably the one you were thinking of FRED and that is the one EJ mentioned. EJ is thinking this is not the end for silver long term, but it is for now. By the time gold completes its move, silver will probably be back to b/w $50 and $100 much like it has taken the last 3 years for platinum to almost regain its 2008 highs.

I'm with T* on this one ... the risk reward just doesn't seem to be there. I will take my profits in silver and leave them in gold. If it doubles from here, so be it. All of the ridiculous you-tube videos with people showing their silver collections etc have done enough to convince me to stay out UNTIL, if, and when prices come down substantially from here.

[Chris]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Ok, there are several questions I have about silver if it's a bubble. In bubbles, don't you usually have an excess supply? We're still using more silver a year than mining, right? Even before taking in account the increased investment demand. Is there expected to be a large drop in industrial demand or a large increase in mining so we're actually using less than producing?

With higher prices you get a flood of junk silver for melt coming to market. I've heard that there were tonnes of inventory which needs to be worked through before prices rise again. 6-9 months was the estimate, so lower to flat silver market for that time.

[Mega]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Bought 1200 Oz when Peter Schiff told me to...@$11 per oz
Mike

[jtabeb]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

This was a Dump, no pump, to run the stop limit orders out of town. They succeeded in doing that but not breaking the bull.

[Kadriana]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

I think the physical market will be interesting to watch the next couple weeks. It seems like there were a lot of people waiting for a big dip to buy and were saving up their money. Apmex was getting pretty low, especially on SE, right before the dip. It looks like it got more SE's in so I'm curious to see if they sell out quickly or not.

[FRED]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

This was a Dump, no pump, to run the stop limit orders out of town. They succeeded in doing that but not breaking the bull.

We're watching COMEX silver depository levels, among other things.

Large net withdrawals on May 6, but...


...didn't put much of a dent in overall deposits.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Silver's real value? Well, when compared to gold what ought it be? At the height of 2008 Gold reached $1000 and silver $20 dollars. That would mean silver ought to be $30 dollars now, right?

I don't think the top or bottom of rapid moves would be the best way to price silver using the gold/silver ratio. Maybe a better way would be to look at the quieter times when things were much calmer, such as late 2009 and early 2010. With that in mind, it looks like somewhere around $24 being a real value.

[Jill Nephew]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Zero Hedge article on non commercial net long spec positions

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/so-...-silver-bubble.

All the silver sites (including ZH) are promoting physical delivery, so not sure what looking at paper holdings has to do with it? Or is that captured in that chart? If those are NET longs, and the physical isn't accounted for, but paper is the only place to short, then i would say that does reflect the bubble...am i missing something?

[grapejelly]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Silver to trade

Silver to own for the long haul

My silver to own --> I've kept it

Silver to trade -- generally a parabolic commodity will crash and then rebound and then crash to new lows. Silver might reach $40 or so, but it will fall to the high $20s probably in a month, maybe 6 weeks. Coincident with a deflation scare, flight to liquidity, steep fall in the S&P, big increase in the USD index.

[coolhand]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

If we believe in peak cheap oil, away from trading moves in stuff that is mined or grown, can anyone make a case why prices of tangible, physical stuff won't rise secularly until we either find a new energy source that is better/cheaper than cheap oil to fuel our transport & ag/food sectors?

In other words - why won't my silver bullion be a lot higher in 10-20 years if peak cheap oil is a reality?

[metalman]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Silver to trade

Silver to own for the long haul

My silver to own --> I've kept it

Silver to trade -- generally a parabolic commodity will crash and then rebound and then crash to new lows. Silver might reach $40 or so, but it will fall to the high $20s probably in a month, maybe 6 weeks. Coincident with a deflation scare, flight to liquidity, steep fall in the S&P, big increase in the USD index.

if you agreed wit the call... http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...890#post196890

why not sell @ $48.5 apr 29 & buy back in the $20s later this yr? why not take the extra $$$ profit?

[Andreuccio]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

if you agreed wit the call... http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...890#post196890

why not sell @ $48.5 apr 29 & buy back in the $20s later this yr? why not take the extra $$$ profit?

He's concerned there won't be any actual physical to be had. Instead he's going short paper to play the expected drop, (IIRC, buying silver puts), yet holding his physical just in case.

[c1ue]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Let's keep in mind we haven't had the Fed rate hikes yet - and the 'inflation' hasn't begun officially either.

I'll be convinced the 'scare' is over once we're past the above points.

Again, it isn't that PMs won't benefit from inflation/dollar devaluation - they absolutely will.

It is that this fact doesn't preclude bubbles or manias.

[metalman]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

If we believe in peak cheap oil, away from trading moves in stuff that is mined or grown, can anyone make a case why prices of tangible, physical stuff won't rise secularly until we either find a new energy source that is better/cheaper than cheap oil to fuel our transport & ag/food sectors?

In other words - why won't my silver bullion be a lot higher in 10-20 years if peak cheap oil is a reality?

ej's silver argument...

$4.25 = 2001 buy price
$100 - $180 = strategic target 2013-15 sell price (peak cheap oil + debt bubble collapse + dollar collapse)
$49 = tactical 2011 silver bubble peak price

taxes & fees 38%... buy silver @ $4.25, sell at top of bubble @ $49, buy back @ $20 & sell @ $100 = greater profit vs buy silver @ $4.25 & sell @ $100.