Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

[*T*]

The following is on BV's home page as of now. I just bought a very small amount back over the weekend.

Notice on Silver Stocks - 9 May 2011

As you will know on the BullionVault Order Board we only sell physical bullion which we own in the vault.

After 3 days of exceptionally heavy demand our stock of silver in the vault has been temporarily exhausted. We have further substantial deliveries scheduled this week.

Please be aware that in this situation offer prices can be unusually high as some sellers may seek materially higher margins than we ordinarily do.

Whether buyer or seller if you are dealing in a sum in excess of 10,000 oz we would be delighted to hear from you on +44 208 600 0130 and we should be able to assist you with our telephone dealing service.

BullionVault

[lektrode]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

The following is on BV's home page as of now. I just bought a very small amount back over the weekend.

BV's announcement:
"Please be aware that in this situation offer prices can be unusually high as some sellers may seek materially higher margins than we ordinarily do."

CORRECTION - didnt notice prev, that on this:

http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/157028/2011AmericanSilverEagleS1MintSealedMonsterBox(Bril liantUncirculated)ConditionshippingJune17th.aspx

THEY DONT HAVE ANY TO SHIP TIL 17JUNE? (first eye noticed that happen this year?)

and SOLD OUT at:
http://www.coin-rare.com/2010-silver...500-coins.aspx (westminster)

and https://online.kitco.com/bullion/com...SD.html#silver doesnt even show _any_ eagles avail, cept for MS70 grade at 87.98 (mon 1800hst)

they are now touting their price as being "only 5.30 over spot!"
when my obs had been they were getting appx 10% over spot, so they have bumped their markup - in this case, as of today, from appx 3.70 to 5.30?

might tend to suggest the paper market (SLV) got oversold?


comments?

fondo?
adeptus?
bart?

how many think we'll see under 30 again?

[jtabeb]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

not this guy

[jiimbergin]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

not this guy

me either

[FRED]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

me either

Have we dreamers among us?

Example of a precious metal that bubbled up in an even more
thinly traded market than silver, but was never talked up by
popular booster sites with magical properties applied to it: Rhodium

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Example of a precious metal that bubbled up in an even more thinly traded market than silver, but was never talked up by popular booster sites with magical properties applied to it

Sorry - I cry foul.

Rhodium is needed in machinery to manufacture LCD & Plasma screens. Just when the explosion of those TVs was happening ... mining in South Africa was disrupted. 90% of Rhodium production comes from there. The entire amount mined every year would make a cube smaller than my home theatre's sub-woofer.

Once stability was brought back online there - production resumed and prices crashed.

Perhaps you have a better example that's more indicative of market hysteria rather than supply/demand.

[jpetr48]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Thanks all for getting me to look at both sides of this issue. I think there is a 50/50 probability silver will be below $30. Having also personally experienced bubbles in California housing the past 23 years, I wondered what is exactly a bubble?

Here is one definition from wikipedia:

"An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is “trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values”. It could also be described as a trade in products or assets with inflated values."

Zero Hedge article on non commercial net long spec positions

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/so-...-silver-bubble.

Second question is the valuation of silver adjusted for inflation? One estimate that John Williams uses is Feb 2011 CPI-U inflation, the 1980 silver price peak would be >$100 per troy ounce.

One item that surprised me was not only the correlation of GLD to the Swiss franc (FXF) but also SLV correlation to fxf is
.70. Silver as well as gold is trading as a currency right now. Unlike GLD it does fluctuate depending on market conditions.
The true test will be how quickly slv rebounds from the next market correction.

[jtabeb]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Bottom, (yes bottom, no qualifiers)

[Kadriana]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Ok, there are several questions I have about silver if it's a bubble. In bubbles, don't you usually have an excess supply? We're still using more silver a year than mining, right? Even before taking in account the increased investment demand. Is there expected to be a large drop in industrial demand or a large increase in mining so we're actually using less than producing?

Second, are all commodities a bubble then? Wheat, corn, oil, etc. have all gone up a lot over the last year. Granted, silver in the last couple weeks was a bit much but there have been weeks where other commodities have limited up several days and then had steep corrections. What makes silver different from wheat or other commodities?

Last, don't you usually hear about more people being involved in a bubble? With the housing bubble, there were multiple flipping shows on. With the dot.com bubble, everyone was talking about the talking sock puppet. My brother was showing me the quarters he's been collecting but he could have cared less about silver or gold.

[lektrode]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

CORRECTION - didnt notice prev, that on this:

http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/157028/2011AmericanSilverEagleS1MintSealedMonsterBox(Bril liantUncirculated)ConditionshippingJune17th.aspx

THEY DONT HAVE ANY TO SHIP TIL 17JUNE? (first eye noticed that happen this year?)

and SOLD OUT at:
http://www.coin-rare.com/2010-silver...500-coins.aspx (westminster)

and https://online.kitco.com/bullion/com...SD.html#silver doesnt even show _any_ eagles avail, cept for MS70 grade at 87.98 (mon 1800hst)

but, then, there's this:

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110509_pm.html

July silver futures reversed its five-session losing streak to end higher Monday. The contract closed up 1.829 at $37.116 per ounce.
Silver's losses last week were much more severe than gold's and the market snapped back sharply higher Monday, reacting to the oversold conditions. Silver plunged 29.8% last week, according to a May 9 research note from R.J. O'Brien.
Looking ahead, "rallies in silver now will continue to bring out scale up selling whenever it is judged the market is too long and too vulnerable. Most traders think $37 to $38 per oz basis spot is very much a top for silver in the present circumstances," R.J. O'Brien analysts wrote.
On the charts, major near term support for July silver lies at $33.615/33.035. If that level were to fall, a fresh selling wave of action would be seen.

[lektrode]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

....Zero Hedge article on non commercial net long spec positions


from:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/so-...-silver-bubble.

this was interesting:

And yes, going forward we urge readers to always check with primary sources such flamboyant claims as those uttered every single day by the CNBC peanut gallery about record this and bubble that. Oddly enough, nobody on CNBC will ever mention that the one true bubble continues to be in stocks, where the net speculative leverage on the NYSE as expressed by surging margin debt total and declining positive investor net worth, is at the second lowest ever, meaning investors are more levered into the beta rally than just one time in history: the very peak of the credit/housing bubble in 2007!




so the 'smartmoney' is all loaded up on bernankebux and bettin big on equities? (and isnt this looking like a classic pump n dump, going into 'sell in may and go away' season? with media reports of gas prices dropping by .50/gal by june - a setup (for a commodities dump) just like last spring?

Second question is the valuation of silver adjusted for inflation? One estimate that John Williams uses is Feb 2011 CPI-U inflation, the 1980 silver price peak would be >$100 per troy ounce.

ok - fair enuf - but what was silver production in them daze, vs how much has the 'largest industrial user' of the time (kodak?) demand declined? has the photo demand been substantially replaced by some other industrial use - solar/PV perhaps? (seems unlikely?)

i havent any idea, and dont claim to know what i'm talking about/asking (why i'm asking) but strikes me that the miners must be going ALL OUT, stimulated by the current price range?
and how many (miners) are hedging at the current levels?

[Adeptus]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Scotia Mocatta out of most items for over a week. Looks to me like physical buyers aren't selling much.
https://www.scotiamocatta-estore.sco...zQZJCMimV30%3d



US Mint, 1.4 Million ounces of silver coins in the 1st week of may. Now that the price is cheaper, expect 4 Million+ by end of May if the trend continues.
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/...1#SilverTotals



First Majestic producer & bullion online seller has had a "$40 /oz" since silver was at $33 paper spot. So much for paper silver price discovery:
http://www.store.firstmajestic.com/

24hourgold.com has prices a minimum of 13% upwards of 50+% above spot for physical silver:
http://www.24hgold.com/english/buy_s...s.aspx?co_id=0



Meanwhile, the COMEX continues with record low "registered" silver inventories. Registered = silver available to deliver on futures contracts.
Also note SLV has lost ~16Million ounces since the end of April raid. Where did 16 Million ounces go? Shouldn't we have seen an increase not a decrease? Hmmm...
It might have been a paper silver bubble, but I sure as heck don't see one in the tight bullion market.

[aaron]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Bottom, (yes bottom, no qualifiers)

Hi jtabeb.. can you elaborate a bit ?

[Adeptus]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

Silver price decreases + continued inventory decreases != Bubble

You have been witnesssing an illusion of sorts...

[aaron]

Re: Notice: Silver liquidity at BullionVault

There is the other side to this as well. OK, this was a 'pump and dump'. For the past 2 weeks, the dumpers made a large amount of money. The evil banker speculators must be loving their huge return. Do they push it further?

Silver's real value? Well, when compared to gold what ought it be? At the height of 2008 Gold reached $1000 and silver $20 dollars. That would mean silver ought to be $30 dollars now, right?

What has changed since 2008 regarding silver supply & demand fundamentals?

- Information from the Comex seems to show a decline in the amount of silver they have available for delivery. It is going somewhere.
- Silver imports into China have increased (tonnage, not just in dollars)
- The current fiat world is perceived to be less secure than it was in 2008.
- China has publicly stated that they view silver as one of the many alternatives to the dollar for their reserve mix.
- There are more paper options for silver investors.
- It could be argued that there is a lot of silver out there in "weak" hands. These are the "investors" like me who will dump their metal at a decent price.

I wish I was strong like a lot of people here and sold at $46. I love my silver (which I know is bad) and could not let go. One side of me feels like puking up my Eagles is exactly what the dumpers want.

One of the main reasons I bought silver metal in the first place was because it makes trading difficult. So far, this pull back looks no different from previous ones this decade; but the only way to be sure is to see it go back up or crash down.