If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

[mooncliff]

Watch the animation. Absolutely fascinating.
The quakes have migrated as far south as Chiba and are fairly strong on a daily basis.

http://www.newscientist.com/embedded/japan-quake


March 21, 2011, JST
I previously posted this on another thread last year, 02-04-10

Black swan: Tokyo quake
From a 2006 analysis.
Lots of interesting graphics. Shaking at ground level depends not only on magnitude and shallowness of the quake, but also depends on how the waves reflect and refract, how the waves interfere, and the depth of soil (deep soil, typically near rivers, shakes like jelly; solid rock shakes much less).

SORRY, I FIXED THE LINK BELOW. IT SHOULD WORK NOW.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.o...1845/1965.full
Human, structural and financial consequences of a large Tokyo earthquake

The Cabinet Office of the Japanese government recently issued a risk assessment for large Tokyo earthquakes (Central Disaster Management Council 2005). They considered an M=7.3 earthquake beneath Tokyo, similar to the 1855 Ansei-Edo shock. The 240 000–840 000 destroyed buildings in their estimate depend strongly on wind speed and time of day, because high winds spread fire and rush hour exposes people to falling objects. If an M=7.3 earthquake struck at 18.00 in 15 m s−1 (33 miles h−1) winds, the Cabinet Office estimates 11 000 deaths, 210 000 wounded and 96 million tons of wreckage. About 57% of the deaths and 77% of the housing collapses are attributable to fire, and 28% of deaths and 18% of the collapses are due to shaking. The projected cost of an M=7.3 earthquake beneath Tokyo are $1.0 trillion (USD), which is 130% of the Japanese annual budget (Central Disaster Management Council 2005). Only about 5% of this loss is thought to be insured, and so the cost would be borne principally by home and business owners and the government. The total comprised $587 million direct losses associated with recovery and rebuilding, and $395 million in indirect losses due to production declines within and outside of Tokyo.
Our 29% probability of an M∼7.3 Tokyo earthquake in 30 years corresponds to an annual probability of 1.2%. Thus, the annual probable loss for Tokyo is $12 billion. Thus, in order to pay for the future earthquake, the Japanese government would need to save this amount annually, investing a portion to mitigate against future losses; but irrespective of Japanese actions, the consequences of a Tokyo earthquake of this magnitude are unlikely to be restricted to Japan. Japan is the largest owner of US Treasury securities, holding $700 billion or 17% of the total. How global capital markets would respond to a sudden withdrawal of these and other funds is unknown.

[swgprop]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Today is the first day of a "seismic window" here on the US west coast predicted by Jim Berkland.

It started with Chile's massive earthquake about a year ago, then New Zealand just last month and now Japan. If this clockwise trend continues, North America is next. Geologist Jim Berkland is worried. When he worries, you should too. Jim accurately predicted the 1989 World Series earthquake four days before it took place in the San Francisco Bay Area. Jim says this month is of particular concern. “The months of October, March, and April are the three most devastating earthquakes in terms of damage in the San Francisco Bay Area in history. On the 19th of this month not only is there a full moon, but within an hour the closest approach of the moon to the earth until the year 2016. The next day is the equinoctial tides. So you're bringing together three of the maximum tide raising forces. We know about the ocean tides. But there is also an Earth tide. And there is a tide in the ground water. All of these help to release sudden built up strain, and cause earthquakes. What I call a seismic window, is developing between the 19th and 26th of this month.” Berkland predicted Japan’s earthquake a week earlier.

A million fish died in Redondo Beach, then in Mexico. Recently a large amount of whales came in close to San Diego. “Changes in the magnetic field often precede larger earthquakes. Most animals have the mineral magnetite in their bodies, including people. But it causes homing pigeons to enable them to get home. Just before big quakes, they often can't get home. There is the delay factor. So we look for those kinds of things,” states Berkland.

“Just before the World Series quake there was very unusual beaching of rare whales in the Ocean Beach in San Francisco. Just after that, an equally rare pigmy sperm whale washed up at Santa Cruz, within about five miles of the epicenter of the World Series quake. That kind of beaching had never occurred before or since. So we're looking for strange fish coming in from deepwater to the shallow water, wild animals coming into cities. The big earthquake in the Indian Ocean followed massive beachings of whales in Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia and Tasmania. Within a couple of days, they had an 8.3 south of New Zealand, and then came the 9.1 in the Indian Ocean, with the big tsunami, on the very day of the fool moon.” “The previous big quake and tsunami was in Alaska, which is a 9.2 magnitude event, on the day of the full moon, on the 27th of March.”

[touchring]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Watch the animation. Absolutely fascinating.
The quakes have migrated as far south as Chiba and are fairly strong on a daily basis.

http://www.newscientist.com/embedded/japan-quake

How about China/Taiwan and North America? Before the big one hit Japan, only 2 weeks ago, it hit New Zealand.

[Starving Steve]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Worrying is a solution? Doing nothing is a solution? Decades of planning is a solution? Wishful thinking about green energy is a solution?

Starvation waits for no-one....... Seven billion people in this world need cheap and abundant energy, not to mention, a much lower cost of living. As I posted before, all of this worrying and speculation should have been done in the 1960s when the world enjoyed the luxury of time to plan for decades.

Now the population bomb has exploded.

We know for sure that big quakes tend to occur as after-shocks from mega-quakes, especially in fault zones and especially near to the very recent mega-quake. The rest is speculation...... Show me.

[touchring]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1700_Cascadia_earthquake

[Starving Steve]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Yes, a mega-quake will happen again someday between mid-Vancouver Island and northern California. Also, the New Madrid Fault will experience a mega-quake someday.

I predict that within the next five years, probably within the next two years, a mega-quake of equal to or greater than 7.0 magnitude will occur within thirty miles of the site of the present mega-quake in Japan. Most likely, the location will be to the south-west along the fault, exactly where the after-shocks are occuring now.......... And I confess that I am a moron.

As far as fish-kills are concerned, those occur naturally, everyday along the world's beaches. Those die-offs have always happened, and will always happen in future........ Maybe show me where a fish-kill or die-off will not occur in the next fifty years between latitude 50N and 50S? ( I mean, make your prediction interesting! )

[chedir007]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Here are 2 youtube clips posted 2-3 days before Japan's Earthquake highlighting potential impact of Comet Elenin on Earth in March 11-23rd time frame.

Any iTuliper's have astronomy and/or relevant scientific background to comment if this Comet Elenin actually exists, and where does the SW shown in the clips come from?

thanks,

http://www.youtube.com/user/9Nania#p/a/u/4/r7QAZPb-IEQ

http://www.youtube.com/user/9Nania#p/a/u/5/95zMdTvoqcQ

[Starving Steve]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Angular momentum is always conserved by the Earth ( or anything else ), so show me when the Earth's axis will NOT shift and the speed or rotation of the Earth will not change after the occurence of a mega-earthquake. Again, at least make the predicton interesting. When a plate shifts on Earth after a mega-earthquake, the angular momentum of the Earth's rotation is conserved. ALWAYS! Nothing ever violates the law of conservation of angular momentum.

I'm bored! As to why these laws of physics exist in this cosmos, well that is a religious question that no human-being can answer.

[chedir007]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Steve,


Ok, but what does the law of conservation of momentum have to do with whether the basis of the clip (existence of a comet and its interaction) is true or not?

This is where I am trying to get some background knowledge....need your help to flesh out the "interesting" details a bit more.


Also I don't think predictions or any analysis needs to be "interesting" - as long as they are "effective".

[Starving Steve]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Steve,


Ok, but what does the law of conservation of momentum have to do with whether the basis of the clip (existence of a comet and its interaction) is true or not?

This is where I am trying to get some background knowledge....need your help to flesh out the "interesting" details a bit more.


Also I don't think predictions or any analysis needs to be "interesting" - as long as they are "effective".

I would be more worried about the distance of the Earth to its sister planet, the Moon of the Earth, than I would be worried about the travels of any comet in the Solar System. The reason why I would focus on the Moon is that the moon of the Earth is massive, and the Moon has a huge effect upon the Earth, while the mass of most comets in miniscule by comparison. Also, the Moon is quite near to the Earth, so the Moon's gravity has a relatively huge affect upon the Earth, always. And yes, the Moon does influence the Earth's quakes, and everything else happening on Earth.

The only time that I would be worried about a comet is if the comet is going to crash into the Earth and survive the trip down through the Earth's atmosphere. Then things on Earth might get quite interesting, and I might not be so bored.

[chedir007]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Agreed- I beleive the moon is going to be closest to earth tonight. You are right - we don't know how big this comet or if it even exists....


One other factort the clips talks about in predicting the precise time frames (Chile and Japan) was that 3 bodies (comet, earth and sun) were in alignment.


Does an "all 3 alignment" factor have any influence from a Newtonian perspective?


I would imagine the earth-moon-sun have been in alignment many times and I don't recall catastrophes other than eclipses.

[Starving Steve]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

From what I have been told about comets is that they are rock or ice, maybe a few feet across. But once in a long while, like once in a million years or so, a comet wanders into the Solar System at hyper-sonic speed with a considerable mass. I am told that such a comet or meteor did some damage to the Earth, like creating the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, I understand that the shoreline of Hudson's Bay in Canada might have been re-arranged by an encounter with a comet or meteor. Maybe the Irish Sea in the British Isles was created by such an ecounter....... If you were living on Earth when such an encounter occurred, your day might have become quite interesting, to say the least.

Just be happy to be healthy and bored on Earth. But don't think for one instance that life on this planet has been free from catastrophes. Life on this planet seems to flourish and maybe even require catastrophes to evolve and prosper. That is what is remarkable about planet Earth.

[touchring]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Today is the first day of a "seismic window" here on the US west coast predicted by Jim Berkland.

What he is saying is plain common sense. In the last 8 years, the world has seen more large earthquakes than in the previous 30 years. Three corners out of four corners of the pacific ring of fire has been hit by megathrust quakes.

No one should even surprised if a megathrust happens off the coast of North America within the next 2 years.

[mooncliff]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

I previously posted this on another thread about a year ago.

Black swan: Tokyo quake
From a 2006 analysis.
Lots of interesting graphics. Shaking at ground level depends not only on magnitude and shallowness of the quake, but also depends on how the waves reflect and refract, how the waves interfere, and the depth of soil (deep soil, typically near rivers, shakes like jelly; solid rock shakes much less).

SORRY, I FIXED THE LINK BELOW. IT SHOULD WORK NOW.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.o...1845/1965.full
Human, structural and financial consequences of a large Tokyo earthquake

The Cabinet Office of the Japanese government recently issued a risk assessment for large Tokyo earthquakes (Central Disaster Management Council 2005). They considered an M=7.3 earthquake beneath Tokyo, similar to the 1855 Ansei-Edo shock. The 240 000–840 000 destroyed buildings in their estimate depend strongly on wind speed and time of day, because high winds spread fire and rush hour exposes people to falling objects. If an M=7.3 earthquake struck at 18.00 in 15 m s−1 (33 miles h−1) winds, the Cabinet Office estimates 11 000 deaths, 210 000 wounded and 96 million tons of wreckage. About 57% of the deaths and 77% of the housing collapses are attributable to fire, and 28% of deaths and 18% of the collapses are due to shaking. The projected cost of an M=7.3 earthquake beneath Tokyo are $1.0 trillion (USD), which is 130% of the Japanese annual budget (Central Disaster Management Council 2005). Only about 5% of this loss is thought to be insured, and so the cost would be borne principally by home and business owners and the government. The total comprised $587 million direct losses associated with recovery and rebuilding, and $395 million in indirect losses due to production declines within and outside of Tokyo.
Our 29% probability of an M∼7.3 Tokyo earthquake in 30 years corresponds to an annual probability of 1.2%. Thus, the annual probable loss for Tokyo is $12 billion. Thus, in order to pay for the future earthquake, the Japanese government would need to save this amount annually, investing a portion to mitigate against future losses; but irrespective of Japanese actions, the consequences of a Tokyo earthquake of this magnitude are unlikely to be restricted to Japan. Japan is the largest owner of US Treasury securities, holding $700 billion or 17% of the total. How global capital markets would respond to a sudden withdrawal of these and other funds is unknown.

[mooncliff]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Sorry for sparse, postings... have been very busy.

A few random comments.

The cherry blossoms are starting.
Downtown Tokyo pretty deserted, but this is Monday of a three day weekend, and I assume anyone who could go somewhere west did so. They might take the rest of the week off, so I guess will have a better idea of what the new normal is come April.
Every single unnecessary thing turned off. Freezing at night, but can get by with the heat off. At least can take a hot bath using gas without using electricity.
Tokyo Electric Company has only half the generating capacity necessary to meet summer peak demand as many conventional power plants were lost in addition to the unbelievable nuclear mess. Will post more on those idiots later. That's what always happens when money trumps what the engineers think and say. The military should have been given control immediately.
Glad I switched to LEDs for apartment last year. Can have apartment reasonably lit for 20 watts.
Gave away as Christmas presents LEDs at $50 a pop in 2009, especially to people I know who do interior construction, and told them oil shocks were coming. Investment paid off, though not for the reason I thought. Heard from them recently that they had entire buildings switched over to LEDs last year. So they have the experience and know what to do now. I think they should sell LEDs at cost now.
Went to a huge evacuation center for people living near the reactor. Was very relieved to see that while of course not a happy situation, there was free food, lots of blankets and clothing, books, toys for the children, and even flowers and musicians giving free concerts outside. Not at all what it was like when I went to a Kobe evacuation center in 1995. The children were running around outside laughing. They are all from the same neighborhood.
It is raining.
The roads are still damaged in Tohoku, so it is difficult for goods to get to people there. Some food is reaching supermarkets in Sendai today. Rail still not running, or tracks completely swept out to sea in some places.
Still going to work, although everything was disrupted all week.