US private sector hiring up in February

[Jam]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1039b844-4...#axzz1FYONpq9I

The private sector added 217,000 jobs last month, according to the ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday. The increase was sharper than economists expected and outpaced January’s revised increase of 189,000.

“We do see some grounds for optimism about the job market over the next few quarters, including notable declines in the unemployment rate in December and January, a drop in new claims for unemployment insurance, and an improvement in firms’ hiring plans,” [Bernanke] said. “Even so, if the rate of economic growth remains moderate, as projected, it could be several years before the unemployment rate has returned to a more normal level.”

[Rantly McTirade]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

In context(size of labor force, # of jobs lost, 18 months beyond business cycle
upturn), 217K still a weak #. 400K should be morelike it.

[don]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

While we wait for next months 'correction', consistently worse than first reported.

[doom&gloom]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

While we wait for next months 'correction', consistently worse than first reported.

'zacktly

[FRED]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

'zacktly

From our upcoming employment and inflation analysis, this is what the current jobs recovery looks like:

Total private sector jobs growth declined by 126,000 between June and December 2010.

This is what a real jobs recovery looks like:

Total private sector jobs growth increased by 54,000 between June and December 2004.

If June to December 2011 is like June to December 2004, inflation rates could be far higher than we forecast for Q4 2011.

[don]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

It would be nice if a soft/hard employment filter could be passed over those great charts. Manufacturing unemployment is a hard number. Real estate unemployment is a soft number. The former are out of work, period. The latter veils many who are still in the biz, on commission, making next to nothing. Both applies to other fields of (un)employment.

[jneal3]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

From Bloomberg:

U.S. stocks slid, a day after the biggest rally in three months, and European shares erased gains as government job data signaled American wage growth may fail to keep up with surging energy costs....

...U.S. equities wiped out a weekly gain as Labor Department data showed average hourly earnings were unchanged, overshadowing an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to an almost two-year low of 8.9 percent in February...

With the kicker being:

“I’m concerned about hourly earnings being flat,” said Paul Zemsky, New York-based head of asset allocation for ING Investment Management, which oversees $550 billion. “With rising gas prices this means that consumers’ real income is not increasing, which will put downward pressure on consumption. I don’t think this is a good number for the equity market.”

A. wage inflation, anyone? Anyone? Maybe it will kick in at some point, but will it be enough to outstrip cost-push inflation? There's a parallel to the cheap-oil cycle in here somewhere...

B. The absolute irony in this, a FIRE rep recognizing that his financial health is tied to the health of the country at large, is almost beyond my mind to grasp. I literally don't know whether to laugh or cry. Where in the hell has this b-head been? Consumers' real income has been DROPPING independent of gas-price action, and where it has gone is into his and his ilk's pockets. Unbelievable.

[don]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

Consumers' real income has been DROPPING independent of gas-price action, and where it has gone is into his and his ilk's pockets. Unbelievable.

He may be doing god's work and doesn't know

For more, see the post - The Culture of FIRE.

[charliebrown]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

not a very good jobs report

YOY
there are 1.5M more full time jobs (good), but 800K fewer part time jobs.
mean duration is not really coming down (bad).
U6 is creeping down (good) .
%of population employed down (bad)

One number I don't understand is weekly wages on table B-3. Just about everyone I know who has been laid off, finds other work with a lot lower pay. This number (weekly wages) just keeps climbing. I'm begining to think that this is not total wages / number of workers, but maybe pay per job class?? If you keep your job, your wages are going up slightly. If you lose it, you take a big cut in pay.

[lektrode]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

If June to December 2011 is like June to December 2004, inflation rates could be far higher than we forecast for Q4 2011.

Gross Says Inflation Is Bigger Concern Than Bernanke Indicates: Tom Keene



Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said gains in so-called headline inflation matter more for the U.S. economy than Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggests.
Rising oil prices may cut U.S. gross domestic product by a quarter to half a percentage point, Gross said in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene.
Surges in oil and other commodity prices probably won’t cause a permanent increase in broader inflation and borrowing costs are likely to stay low, Bernanke said March 1 in his semi- annual monetary policy testimony before Congress. Gasoline advanced to a 30-month high today as political unrest in Libya and the Middle East escalated, threatening global oil shipments, and an increase in U.S. jobs indicated higher demand.
“Bernanke tends to think this doesn’t matter -- at least in terms of headline versus the core -- we do,” Gross said. “For the last 10 years, with the exception of maybe a year or two recently, the headline has averaged about 0.5 percent more than the core and that’s because basically we’ve seen a shift based on globalization to increased commodity demand.”
Gross cut the holdings of U.S. government and related debt in Pimco’s $237 billion Total Return Fund in January to the smallest proportion in two years.

[lektrode]

Re: US private sector hiring up in February

..One number I don't understand is weekly wages on table B-3. Just about everyone I know who has been laid off, finds other work with a lot lower pay. This number (weekly wages) just keeps climbing. I'm begining to think that this is not total wages / number of workers, but maybe pay per job class?? If you keep your job, your wages are going up slightly. If you lose it, you take a big cut in pay.

nears eye been able to determine, 'they' dont think there's inflation as long as wages dont go up....
(and bankers bonus billions dont seem to count, nor does food, fuel, clothing, rents, med ins, etc etc etc)

hilarious, aint it?