WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

[mr_fibuli]

Interesting how the real underlying problems are finally starting to surface in the mainstream media.

"The International Energy Agency needn’t bother exhorting OPEC to pump more oil to fuel a global economy that now burns a record 87 million barrels a day. Confidential cables from the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia released recently by WikiLeaks confirm what others have long suspected: OPEC’s kingpin producer, Saudi Arabia, has little more to give."


See article here: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1908385/

Inflation, US bankruptcy and worst of all Peak cheap oil, very slowly the realisation is dawning that the good old days are coming to an end...

People a hundred years from now will look back at us and marvel at how lucky we were to have all this energy wealth and how stupid we were to not appreciate it. I remind myself of this when I get in my car and ride my motorcycle or go racing. Enjoy it while it lasts!

[Adeptus]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

In other news, Iran plans on sailing 2 warships through Suez canal tonight. What will Israel do? I have no idea, but Brent Crude at $103.89 (up 2.2%) and WTI Crude at $85.34 (up 1.21%)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...71192R20110216
Adeptus

[mr_fibuli]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

In other news, Iran plans on sailing 2 warships through Suez canal tonight. What will Israel do? I have no idea, but Brent Crude at $103.89 (up 2.2%) and WTI Crude at $85.34 (up 1.21%)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...71192R20110216
Adeptus

It will be interesting to see what happens when the stuff really gets rare - I am sure the people who are sitting on what is left will get protective and the US can't afford another Iraq expedition to maintain access.

With all the changes like in Egypt the US strategy of control seems to be a bit shaky - supporting corrupt backward regimes like in Saudi Arabia will be more and more difficult if the locals are rising up just like in 1776, eastern Europe etc. Once one domino falls the rest will be less stable and the balance of power in the region may shift in unexpected ways.

[don]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

i believe the new neoliberal approach is controllable democracy, as per Iraq. On a country-by-country basis, naturally.

[mr_fibuli]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

i believe the new neoliberal approach is controllable democracy, as per Iraq. On a country-by-country basis, naturally.

I think you're right but it is an expensive approach, maybe more expensive than giving a few billion a year away to a friendly despot.

I always wondered why the USA didn't just march into Saudi and take just enough of the country to get the oil out - the wells, a road to port and the port - anyone who trespasses gets shot. Leave the rest of the place to the locals.

Not very nice perhaps but very honest and clean. Better than getting into bed with them or running the whole place like in Iraq! The oil is then available for the cost of extraction and keeping the fenced in area clear.

[touchring]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

What will Israel do?

Once the US loses influence, Israel is finished. The fall of Mubarak is just part of the early process. I now see the possibility there might not be an Israel 30 years from today.

[mr_fibuli]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

probably right - a state founded on the notion of institutionalised apartheid cannot sustain itself forever.

Hopefully this is the start toward modern secular thinking in the middle east though I don't think I'll live to see the full results as it will probably take at least a few generations.

It took two world wars and genocidal events to get western European cultures to start behaving like civilised people and that process is not yet complete.

[touchring]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

Iran gained an Egypt. Bahrain next.

[GRG55]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

Once the US loses influence, Israel is finished. The fall of Mubarak is just part of the early process. I now see the possibility there might not be an Israel 30 years from today.

I can see the possibility that there might not be an Egypt 30 months from now...

[GRG55]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

Iran gained an Egypt. Bahrain next.

"Iran gained an Egypt"????

Comparing Egypt and Bahrain is like comparing Peru and Mexico. They use the same language [sort of]. That's about it.

[I've spent considerable amounts of time in both Egypt and Bahrain in the past decade, including maintaining a residence in the latter, and happen to be in Bahrain at this moment btw].

Besides, Iran seems to have it's own problems these days...

[touchring]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

"Iran gained an Egypt"????

Comparing Egypt and Bahrain is like comparing Peru and Mexico. They use the same language [sort of]. That's about it.

[I've spent considerable amounts of time in both Egypt and Bahrain in the past decade, including maintaining a residence in the latter, and happen to be in Bahrain at this moment btw].

Besides, Iran seems to have it's own problems these days...

It doesn't matter, I'm looking 10-20 years head. Just 5 years ago, no one would have imagined that Iran will be nuclear armed and riots breaking out throughout the Middle East against American propped rulers.

China had been an ally of the Persian empire for more than 2000 years preceding Islam. The relationship goes back a long time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Persian_relations

[dcarrigg]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

I can see the possibility that there might not be an Egypt 30 months from now...

Pan-Arabian Neo-Caliphate?

[GRG55]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

Pan-Arabian Neo-Caliphate?

Something quite the opposite. Fragmentation. Not Pan-Arabism...

[metalman]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

Something quite the opposite. Fragmentation. Not Pan-Arabism...

underplayed here in the usa were stories that during the protests, christian vs muslim factions were taking blocks & whole areas of cairo around the square on out & holding them.

you think the egyptian military may split & civil war will follow?

is this is the eye of the storm? how come oil is only $104?

hope i'm not asking stupid questions... thx.

there goes morocco... http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,4078326.story

[GRG55]

Re: WikiLeaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

underplayed here in the usa were stories that during the protests, christian vs muslim factions were taking blocks & whole areas of cairo around the square on out & holding them.
...

No nation can shoot every one of its citizens. Spent a couple of hours at the Pearl Roundabout in Al Manama, Bahrain this evening. The army and police are gone. The crowds tore down all the razor wire barricades [miles of it!] they left behind. Where they couldn't do it by hand they tied it to their cars and pulled it apart. The traffic is being directed by young men, who seem to be doing a better job than I usually experience at the hands of the Bahrain traffic police. The place is filled with red and white Bahrain flags, instead of the green and black Shia flags that are usually prevalent around here. But the anti-government rhetoric coming over the loudspeakers is the same [I was with two expat friends fluent in Arabic]. The tents are back up. Half the island must be there. As I was leaving people were still streaming in towards the roundabout, mostly families, men, women and children. The closest village is Buhama, about three blocks from the roundabout, and as I passed through it the Shia were on the street handing out bottles of water and fruit to everyone, including us foreigners.

A nation that finds it necessary to shoot its own citizens is a country in serious trouble. Maybe something good will come from all this, however. The crowds I saw tonight were peaceful, orderly and anxious for the world to know that. I sensed more hope than either defiance or fear in this crowd. I have no television where I am staying so have no idea what is being broadcast on CNN or BBC to the rest of the world now.

The politics of the Gulf are complex, with Iran-Saudi rivalry that is currently in a delicate balance but may be tripped up by the bomb, concern about the Bahrain Ruling Family giving concessions to the Shia [something that does not go down well with the Al Sauds in particular], the enormous economic benefits to those in power of deeply ingrained official corruption, and a lot of other dynamics that are generally ignored by the media. So much of what goes on in this region has religious connotations, including the Sunni vs Shia schism, and fiercely secular western journalists, few of whom have any understanding of any religion, including Christianity, are completely incapable of adequately explaining any of this to their international audiences. Instead they feed us pap about USA oil-driven hegemony, or some other overly simplistic explanation that fits the 10-second sound bite format of modern television "journalism". What is going on in Bahrain is very different from Egypt. Bahrain has the potential to become everyone's little nightmare...the Lebanon of the Gulf, perpetually unstable, with competing factions sponsored by Iran, Saudi and others [just like the competing Iranian, Syrian, Israeli, and American sponsored factions in Lebanon]. That type of outcome is highly unlikely in Egypt because its history, population and religious demographics, geographic and economic position and other factors don't lend themselves to that.

Maybe history is being made in this region, including this little island. Time will tell.

you think the egyptian military may split & civil war will follow? ...

Possible, but now...fortunately...less likely than a few weeks ago. You'll have noticed that the flags in Tahrir Square were Egyptian national flags, not the various factional flags or religious symbols such as the all black Shia flags that one sees elsewhere in the region. That is one of the changes I noticed at the Pearl Roundabout and mentioned above, and that gives me some hope that there's going to be something constructive come out of the completely unnecessary mayhem, chaos and loss of life last Wednesday morning. I picked up a spent rubber bullet from the ground there as a permanent reminder of these extraordinary events and times...

is this is the eye of the storm?...

Who can tell. Maybe it'll all blow over in a few weeks or months, no real change, and the meek will have to wait a bit longer to inherit this part of the earth. But then, maybe not...

how come oil is only $104? ...

My best guess...1) None of the major oil exporters has been directly effected yet; 2) The [valid] belief that the oil exporting monarchs [Saudi, Libya, Iran, Kuwait, etc] who have more to lose economically than their less fortunate brothers [Bahrain, Egypt], will not hesitate to use whatever force is necessary to put down any public disturbance - certainly that view has so far been validated by the events in Libya; 3) There is no current shortage of crude oil so "What, me worry?".

hope i'm not asking stupid questions... thx.

there goes morocco... http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,4078326.story

It's starting to spread outside the Middle East now...

Call for Protests Unnerves China

FEBRUARY 20, 2011, 2:10 P.M. ET

BEIJING—Chinese authorities detained dozens of political activists after an anonymous online call for people to start a "Jasmine Revolution" in China by protesting in 13 cities—just a day after President Hu Jintao called for tighter Internet controls to help prevent social unrest.

Only a handful of people appeared to have responded to the call to protest in Beijing, Shanghai and 11 other cities at 2 p.m. Sunday, a call first posted on the U.S.-based Chinese-language news website Boxun.com and circulated mainly on Twitter, which is blocked in China.

But Chinese authorities seemed to take it seriously, deploying extra police to the planned protest sites, deleting almost all online discussion of the appeal, blocking searches for the word "Jasmine" on micro-blogging and other sites and temporarily disabling mass text-messaging services.

Ahead of the planned protests, more than 100 activists across China were taken away by police, confined to their homes or went missing, according to the Hong Kong-based group Information Center for Human Rights and Democracy.

The online protest appeal is likely to compound the apparent concern among Communist Party leaders that the recent uprisings against authoritarian governments in the Middle East and North Africa could inspire similar unrest in China. The lackluster popular response, however, demonstrates how much harder it would be to organize a sustained protest movement in a country with a well-funded and organized police force, and with the world's most sophisticated Internet censorship system...