Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

[wayiwalk]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

As a tae kwon do student, I celebrate either me or one of my sons attaining a new belt level by watching a martial arts movie.

The themes of several chinese made films of late definitely fan the flames of chinese nationalism, and growing confidence in the country's international economic strength and political influence. Japan gets it's butt kicked in several, most recently in "Ip Man". I can only imagine how these things play in china....sort of like the Rambo and Chuck Norris films in the 80's (chants of U-S-A, U-S-A), there must be something similar in chinese.

Not that the chinese gov't has anything to do with it, those directors are just echoing what the people want to hear.

[c1ue]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

Prices in HK fell like 70% after 1997, and has since returned and breached previous record highs by a great margin.

This may be so - though I greatly question whether this is still true if 15 years of inflation are taken into account.

But it blatantly is not true for the rest of the previous 'Asian Tigers': Taiwan. Japan. Malaysia. Thailand.

The problem I have with these knee-jerk, straight-line, economic extrapolations is that they have uniformly been wrong.

In 1985 - it was said that Taiwan would exceed China in the size of its economy and its role in the world stage.

In 1991 it was Japan - remember the movie 'Gung Ho'? (doubly ironic as Gung Ho is more of a Chinese term, not Japanese)

Now supposedly it will be China Uber Alles.

I tell you right now - China will take its rightful place as a large nation in a multi-polar world.

But China's huge dependence on external energy is a huge problem, as are the consequences of China failing to carry through with its implicit social contract between China's government and its people: that working hard and scrimping today will lead to American style prosperity in the future.

That proposition is never going to happen.

Take all of China's strengths and weaknesses altogether and China will never be the next hyperpower, nor will it be the first among equals.

[touchring]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

I don't think the Chinese people are being brain washed to be anti-American, but they are surely being brain washed to be anti-Japanese, even though there is historical justification, there is no need for WWII films to be telecast on TV every national day holiday and event repeatedly.

I can't really tell from where I sit if what I'm thinking here is so or not, but I've got a hunch that the Chinese people are being stirred (by their leaders) to anger against the arrogance of the American empire more so than the American people are being stirred to anger against the Chinese or Russian people or government.

This would suggest a dynamic where the Chinese people are being riled up, preparing for more aggression outside their own land, while the American people are being suppressed, preparing for a weaker presence outside their own land, except for continued military aggression against Islamic nations. My hunch is that this is a dynamic playing out over perhaps a five to fifteen year time span.

Perhaps someone with a different view can refine, or "roll on floor, laughing out loud at", this hunch.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

I don't think the Chinese people are being brain washed to be anti-American, but they are surely being brain washed to be anti-Japanese,

Interesting. As I recall, the sinking of the South Korea warship Cheonan was used to justify increased tensions between North and South Korea, perhaps as proxies for China and the US. Japan has also often been a US proxy, as well as Taiwan.

So it seems to be increasing east-west conflict, with the more militaristic tones kept regional to the area near China, or kept hidden from public view (the Mystery missile contrail stumps Pentagon ?), while the global conflict visible to the public involves trade and monetary policy.

[touchring]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

Interesting. As I recall, the sinking of the South Korea warship Cheonan was used to justify increased tensions between North and South Korea, perhaps as proxies for China and the US. Japan has also often been a US proxy, as well as Taiwan.

So it seems to be increasing east-west conflict, with the more militaristic tones kept regional to the area near China, or kept hidden from public view (the Mystery missile contrail stumps Pentagon ?), while the global conflict visible to the public involves trade and monetary policy.

There is talk that the Americans are behind the Cheonan. My personal opinion is that this idea came from the sadist Kim. The Chinese military people are too busy keeping up with the Jones, being able to afford the new imported car, to be able to indulge in a stunt like this.

Kim wants to show China that if they don't support his son, he is capable of making the whole region go up in flames. If you noticed, after that incident, the Chinese started to look into his demands.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

If you noticed, after that incident, the Chinese started to look into his [Kim's] demands.

I noticed. But I had the impression that this closer consideration of North Korea by China came in response to the closer connection of South Korea with the US, which was forced on South Korean leaders by the fear mongering addressed to South Koreans, arising from the sinking, blaming it on North Korea.

From what I can tell, North Korea probably did not sink the Cheonan. It would have been difficult for the North Koreans to get their submarine around the American Navy forces that were in the area at the time. The evidence presented that a North Korean torpedo sank the Cheonan was rather suspect.

Perhaps the ship ran aground, perhaps it hit a mine, perhaps something else, perhaps some combination. Perhaps the sinking was planned, perhaps not. But it was quickly leveraged into a show to South Koreans of the dangers of North Korea. Usually when some event is quickly leveraged like that, and any evidence to the contrary soon covered up, that means that someone (in the US and/or South Korea) was anticipating the event.

However ... all my impressions above are from (sometimes unreliable) "alternative news web sites", not from any direct knowledge of what actually happened in Korea.

If you or someone has more real knowledge, I'd welcome it.

The Chinese military people are too busy keeping up with the Jones, being able to afford the new imported car, to be able to indulge in a stunt like this.

It never crossed my mind that the Chinese did this; sorry if I left that impression.

[touchring]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

I didn't specially read up on alternative websites for this incident, but find inconceivable that a sea mine can split a ship at the center into two pieces. If it were to hit a mine, the front of the ship would blow up and not right at the center.

I still standby my belief that Kim is behind it. Kim has a good reason, if China doesn't support his son, and if power falls to an outsider, the North Koreans will slaughter his entire family, male, female, children and infant.


Anyone here from the Navy? What kind of explosive is required to split a small ship into two?

Before:



After:

I noticed. But I had the impression that this closer consideration of North Korea by China came in response to the closer connection of South Korea with the US, which was forced on South Korean leaders by the fear mongering addressed to South Koreans, arising from the sinking, blaming it on North Korea.

From what I can tell, North Korea probably did not sink the Cheonan. It would have been difficult for the North Koreans to get their submarine around the American Navy forces that were in the area at the time. The evidence presented that a North Korean torpedo sank the Cheonan was rather suspect.

Perhaps the ship ran aground, perhaps it hit a mine, perhaps something else, perhaps some combination.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

I didn't specially read up on alternative websites for this incident, but find inconceivable that a sea mine can split a ship at the center into two pieces. If it were to hit a mine, the front of the ship would blow up and not right at the center.

Anyone here from the Navy? What kind of explosive is required to split a small ship into two?

Yes, the ship was blown in two parts. If a mine were involved it would not have been a mine floating near the surface which the ship sailed into, but rather a mine moored on the ocean floor, releasing up into the ships hull. Mines can be layed on the ocean floor in relatively shallow waters, as were present here, and can have larger charges than floating mines (link.) As best I recall, the charge that split the ship was equivalent to approximately 200 to 300 kg of TNT.

The recent FPIF article The Cheonan Incident: Skepticism Abounds has more details.

[c1ue]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

I don't think the Chinese people are being brain washed to be anti-American, but they are surely being brain washed to be anti-Japanese, even though there is historical justification, there is no need for WWII films to be telecast on TV every national day holiday and event repeatedly.

Anti-Japanese feeling has very little to do with official propaganda - a lot of it exists due to the generation growing up on WWII stories. Any official propaganda merely feeds off this - not the other way around.

My proof? Those Chinese who have lived in the US for 40 years think the same way. I doubt anyone conflates Communist/post Deng Chinese propaganda with US.

On the other hand, anti-American feeling is at best politely ignored.

You may not remember, but not too many years ago a Chinese plane bumped into an American one. The demonstrations at that time were considerable.

Ditto for the Chinese consulate collateral damage bombing.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

The recent FPIF article The Cheonan Incident: Skepticism Abounds has more details.

Ah - I rediscovered the link that had the most complete and recent analysis of the Cheonan sinking that I've seen. See Investigating the Sinking of the Cheonan: Beneath the Surface. It finds that the ship ran aground, and was then likely hit by a mine. The official report (as so often the case?) appears to be a cover-up. A proper investigation is called for.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

Ah - I rediscovered the link that had the most complete and recent analysis of the Cheonan sinking that I've seen.

Globalresearch.ca has three more recent reports on the Cheonan sinking, which include discussion of the possible sinking of a U.S. submarine, at the same time and place. See:

• North Korea: Who Sank the Cheonan? The sinking of the US submarine was not reported
• Reviewing the Evidence of DPRK Culpability for the Cheonan Warship Incident
• Pyongyang sees US role in Cheonan sinking

[touchring]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

Globalresearch.ca has three more recent reports on the Cheonan sinking, which include discussion of the possible sinking of a U.S. submarine, at the same time and place. See:

• North Korea: Who Sank the Cheonan? The sinking of the US submarine was not reported
• Reviewing the Evidence of DPRK Culpability for the Cheonan Warship Incident
• Pyongyang sees US role in Cheonan sinking

The latest actions by North Korea confirm that the Cheonan was indeed sunk by them.

It is part of a series actions designed to escalate tension.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

The latest actions by North Korea confirm that the Cheonan was indeed sunk by them.

If you're claiming that North Korea wants to increase tensions, therefore it sank the Cheonan, that's not "confirm"-ation in my book. It's a plausible motive. It takes more than plausible motive to convict.

[Down Under]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

When China's mother-of-all-property-bubbles finally bursts [and takes down Sydney and Vancouver with it] I can't see that any number of high speed train networks is going to make a tinkers damn bit of difference. China is NOT different.

So, Sydney and Vancouver RE will burst when China's property bubble bursts; presumably, this is because Australia and Canada are highly dependent on commodity exports to China, correct?

It seems to me that when the Chinese RE bubble bursts, it will have a major impact on Sydney RE.

[goodrich4bk]

Re: Bloomberg: China Economy to Beat U.S. by 2020 on Supercycle, Standard Chartered Says

What do the passengers do with that extra 50 minutes in Hangzhou that pays for the cost of arriving that early? If they don't produce more with that extra 50 minutes than they consumed building the rail and operating the train, there is no progress.

And if I can telecommute with a skype conference and save the trip altogether, what then?