missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

[ASH]

I've been following this story... looks like a majorly embarrassing American SNAFU. About the time conflicting videos started surfacing earlier this year, it became clear that regardless how it started, it wouldn't end without a lot of egg on our face.

Iranian scientist surfaces at Pakistani embassy in D.C.; Iran says U.S. kidnapped him

By Thomas Erdbrink, Karen De Young and Greg Miller
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, July 13, 2010; 11:30 AM

TEHRAN -- A nuclear scientist who Iran says was kidnapped by the United States has surfaced in Washington and is planning to return to his native country, officials said Tuesday.

Shahram Amiri, who disappeared last year while on pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia, walked into Iran's diplomatic Interests Section in upper Georgetown about 6:30 p.m. Monday, saying he wanted a passport and a ticket home, officials said.

Amiri, 32, was unaccompanied, and said he had been "dropped off" at the interests office, a ground-floor storefront in a commercial building, officials said.

"He is here right now," said Ali Shirazi, who identified himself as a staff member at the Iranian interests section, which functions as a consular office for Iranians in the United States since Iran does not have its own embassy in Washington.

The interest section is operated under the auspices of Pakistan's embassy to the United States. Pakistani officials planned to interview Amiri Tuesday morning. The United States and Iran severed diplomatic relations in 1980. The United States has a similar interests section at the Swiss Embassy in Tehran.

Amiri disappeared under mysterious circumstances in June 2009. Around the same time, U.S. officials spoke of an "intelligence coup" involving the high-profile defection of an Iranian nuclear scientist with a presumed trove of secrets. Iran, meanwhile, alleged that Amiri had been captured by American agents.

In conflicting videos that surfaced on the Internet this spring, Amiri first said he had escaped from the CIA; a day later he said he was studying at a U.S. university of his own free will. In subsequent videos he repeated the escape story and asked for help from human rights organizations.

...

[D-Mack]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

I knew CNN had some spook operations but really?

However, in the latest audio message obtained by Iran's intelligence sources, Amiri insists that he was offered $10 million to appear on CNN and announce that he had willingly defected to the US.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id...onid=351020101

AndersonCooper'sCIASecret

http://www.radaronline.com/exclusive...cia-secret.php

CNN AND PSYOPS

By Alexander Cockburn

Military personnel from the Fourth Psychological Operations Group based at Fort Bragg, in North Carolina, have until recently been working in CNN's hq in Atlanta.
http://www.counterpunch.org/cnnpsyops.html

[lakedaemonian]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

I've been following this story... looks like a majorly embarrassing American SNAFU. About the time conflicting videos started surfacing earlier this year, it became clear that regardless how it started, it wouldn't end without a lot of egg on our face.

Iranian scientist surfaces at Pakistani embassy in D.C.; Iran says U.S. kidnapped him

By Thomas Erdbrink, Karen De Young and Greg Miller
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, July 13, 2010; 11:30 AM

TEHRAN -- A nuclear scientist who Iran says was kidnapped by the United States has surfaced in Washington and is planning to return to his native country, officials said Tuesday.

Shahram Amiri, who disappeared last year while on pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia, walked into Iran's diplomatic Interests Section in upper Georgetown about 6:30 p.m. Monday, saying he wanted a passport and a ticket home, officials said.

Amiri, 32, was unaccompanied, and said he had been "dropped off" at the interests office, a ground-floor storefront in a commercial building, officials said.

"He is here right now," said Ali Shirazi, who identified himself as a staff member at the Iranian interests section, which functions as a consular office for Iranians in the United States since Iran does not have its own embassy in Washington.

The interest section is operated under the auspices of Pakistan's embassy to the United States. Pakistani officials planned to interview Amiri Tuesday morning. The United States and Iran severed diplomatic relations in 1980. The United States has a similar interests section at the Swiss Embassy in Tehran.

Amiri disappeared under mysterious circumstances in June 2009. Around the same time, U.S. officials spoke of an "intelligence coup" involving the high-profile defection of an Iranian nuclear scientist with a presumed trove of secrets. Iran, meanwhile, alleged that Amiri had been captured by American agents.

In conflicting videos that surfaced on the Internet this spring, Amiri first said he had escaped from the CIA; a day later he said he was studying at a U.S. university of his own free will. In subsequent videos he repeated the escape story and asked for help from human rights organizations.

...

Not sure how this mess is going to turn out.

But I think it's pretty clear the US/Israel, and probably others are playing by big boy rules and taking some gambles to uncover/disrupt/attrit Iranian nuclear weapons development efforts.

In the past few years an Iranian general reportedly with high level invovlement in Iranian nuclear weapons development was pinched in Turkey(the Turks don't want a nuclear Iran), this scientist Amiri was pinched in Mecca(the Saudis don't want a nuclear Iran), and another nuclear scientist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi was assassinated via command detonated bomb in Tehran earlier this year.

While it's highly likely the two former incidents involved US/Turk/Saudi/western intelligence, the latter case is more muddled as Mohammadi could possibly have been targeted by both western(or aligned) intelligence services or for his reported Iranian opposition movement activities.

There have also been several rather costly Iranian military transport crashes in recent years, including one reportedly carrying some rather senior personnel......quite likely just costly accidents for the Iranians.....by assuming Iran is able to adequately maintain it's C130 fleet it's within the realm of possibility that US or aligned interests deemed it necessary to target them due to Iranian efforts to undermine Iraq and/or to hinder it's nuclear weapons development.

The US and the west would clearly be working hard to destabilize, undermine, and topple the Iranian regime, much like efforts in the 80's to do so with the Warsaw Pact nations.

How far US and aligned interests would go to crack the Iranian nut I wouldn't have a clue.....but I would suspect a very aggressive, full spectrum, and largely covert approach is almost a no brainer...and I could think of far better places to pinch Iranians with critical pieces of the nuclear intelligence puzzle than Turkey or Saudi....who both probably prefer a non-nuke armed Iran even more than the US or Israel.

And at the same time, it would be more than safe to say that Iranian efforts to counter or mitigate the threat posed by US and aligned intelligence efforts against it would also be very high and very aggressive.

I'd be keen to know about any external travel or even domestic flight restrictions placed on Iranians with specialist skillsets by Iranian security services.

Reading up on Israeli efforts to cripple Iraqi nuclear ambitions didn't start and end with the Osirak raid...it included a number of targeted assassinations and deniable-ish efforts to physically destroy nuclear infrastructure components during or after manufacture.

We live in very interesting times.

[Ghent12]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

I find this quite intriguing.

However...

There have also been several rather costly Iranian military transport crashes in recent years, including one reportedly carrying some rather senior personnel......quite likely just costly accidents for the Iranians.....by assuming Iran is able to adequately maintain it's C130 fleet it's within the realm of possibility that US or aligned interests deemed it necessary to target them due to Iranian efforts to undermine Iraq and/or to hinder it's nuclear weapons development.

Rule 1 of arms dealing: sell to your potential adversaries first. When relationships go south, simply cut off the spare parts supply. Their fleet of aircraft or ships will be rendered ineffective over time.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

I find this quite intriguing.

However...Rule 1 of arms dealing: sell to your potential adversaries first. When relationships go south, simply cut off the spare parts supply. Their fleet of aircraft or ships will be rendered ineffective over time.

Iranians are not Saudis.......once the Shah was deposed, Iraq invaded, and sanctions were placed against Iran....Iran was left with no choice but to develop a fairly high level of self-sufficiency for a 3rd world country.

Also, the US supplied Iran with depot level servicing capability for a lot of it's major equipment buys...which Iran has since developed to include refurbishment and remanufacture.

And the ability to source C130 consumables and replacement parts would be easy, even under embargo, as the C130 is used by dozens of nations around the world, with some surely amenable to selling some bits and pieces to Iran for profit.....if there's anything Iranian industry hasn't been able to reverse engineer.

I'm not trying to portray Iran as full of Persian supermen, but they have continued to surprise a world that all too often confuses them with their less successful Arab neighbours.

It's entirely possible that Iran's C130s fell out of the sky due to old age, poor servicing, pilot error, etc.

But while I would not be keen to fly on an Iranian C130, I would far rather fly on an Iranian one from a safety standpoint than say Chad's, Cameroon's, Gabon's, or Zambia's.

It's entirely possible and even quite likely the accidents were just that...accidents.

But when you combine two closely dated C130 losses, an aircraft with a very good safety record spanning many decades, occurring at a time when Iranian supported insurgency in Iraq was reaching boiling point combined with Western pressure against Iran leads me to believe it is possible(if unlikely) that the accidents may not have been accidents.

While I don't agree with your rule #1, I do agree that exported weapons systems can be designed to provide considerable political leverage for the selling country's government .......I also think that arms deals in the region require far greater scrutiny.

The decades long UK/Saudi arms deal series Al Yamamah is but one massive and incredibly embarrassing example...largely ignored or accepted by the masses.

It's petro dollar recycling and mass corruption(commission to Saudi Royal Family and those connected) writ SO large the high profile and accelerating media/public investigation was canned on the grounds of national/international security.

[D-Mack]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

if there's anything Iranian industry hasn't been able to reverse engineer.

They can get a can of worms into space, but the F14 gives them head aches

Iran successfully launched a can of worms into space
..
About a dozen worms joined a rat and two turtles in a research capsule aboard a Kavoshgar-3 satellite-carrying rocket
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7013280.ece

Iranian Agent Pleads Guilty to Smuggling F-14 Parts

...
The Iranians keep getting caught trying to purchase F-14 parts illegally. It is somewhat easy to catch them, because Iran is the only nation which still flies the venerable F-14 Tomcat. The Tomcat was a truly awesome fighter aircraft for it’s time, but that time ended several decades ago. The Iranians do not possess the technology to build replacements for many of the Tomcat’s critical components and their fleet is slowly dwindling as more combat aircraft are cannibalized for parts.

..
http://www.fortliberty.org/iranian-a...-14-parts.html
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...SP_IbkqTQtJn4Q

[WildspitzE]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

When it comes to trade, my understanding is that there is a large amount of nightly trade going on between individuals in the UAE and Iran -- everything you can imagine.

[WildspitzE]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

ash - perhaps this guy's story telling is a little erratic because he has family back home, and perhaps the iranians are now applying pressure via this route.

hopefully the truth comes to light, if only because i bet it's better than fiction! hehe

[reggie]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

"A man ... has surfaced in Washington"

This is the ONLY part of the story that is most likely verifiable. The rest is very possibly manufactured.

[ASH]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

ash - perhaps this guy's story telling is a little erratic because he has family back home, and perhaps the iranians are now applying pressure via this route.

hopefully the truth comes to light, if only because i bet it's better than fiction! hehe

Yeah. David Ignatius offers one interpretation of events that makes some sense, while being sympathetic to American dignity -- that Dr. Amiri defected, provided useful intelligence to the US, and then had a change of heart about leaving his family back in Iran... and his claims of being kidnapped are necessary to pave the way for his return. Although that version of events appeals to my jingoistic instincts, it is a bit too comforting for me to be wholly convinced. On the other hand, I buy the argument that the CIA is perfectly competent to hold and interrogate foreign abductees without allowing them to escape and release videos on You-Tube.

[WildspitzE]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

Yeah. David Ignatius offers one interpretation of events that makes some sense, while being sympathetic to American dignity -- that Dr. Amiri defected, provided useful intelligence to the US, and then had a change of heart about leaving his family back in Iran... and his claims of being kidnapped are necessary to pave the way for his return. Although that version of events appeals to my jingoistic instincts, it is a bit too comforting for me to be wholly convinced. On the other hand, I buy the argument that the CIA is perfectly competent to hold and interrogate foreign abductees without allowing them to escape and release videos on You-Tube.

ha! look at that.

how i arrived at the idea didn't have to do with patriotism. meaning, i wasn't trying to find a reason where the us saves face in this debacle. i'm an american, but grew up in guatemala and el salvador during the 80s and 90s. i know how incompetent the us can be first hand in certain matters. but i find it hard to believe that this guy would just escape if he was in fact a prisoner (like you pointed out). he was allowed to leave imo. then, if he cooperated, why would he want to go back and risk his life? if he betrayed his country, wouldn't he want to stay here? i can think of only one reason why i would do that, especially bc my bet is that his life is still at risk regardless of whatever story he tells.

[WildspitzE]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

that, especially bc my bet is that his life is still at risk regardless of whatever story he tells.

well, i stand corrected. apparently he's a hero.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...400529_pf.html

[reggie]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

Don't all of these narratives assume that Iran and the USA gov'ts are separately controlled, that Iran and the USA are states hostile toward each other, that the Iranian nuclear program is unauthorized. Well, what if all of these assumptions are false, except in perception only? What then, might the motives of this story be? Why stay within the frames being crafted? Is this the necessary formula for maintaining credibility? If so, at what cost?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

ha! look at that.

how i arrived at the idea didn't have to do with patriotism. meaning, i wasn't trying to find a reason where the us saves face in this debacle. i'm an american, but grew up in guatemala and el salvador during the 80s and 90s. i know how incompetent the us can be first hand in certain matters. but i find it hard to believe that this guy would just escape if he was in fact a prisoner (like you pointed out). he was allowed to leave imo. then, if he cooperated, why would he want to go back and risk his life? if he betrayed his country, wouldn't he want to stay here? i can think of only one reason why i would do that, especially bc my bet is that his life is still at risk regardless of whatever story he tells.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitaly_Yurchenko

Another embarrassing example from the 80's that possesses some similiarities.

Did Yurchenko have a change of heart and miss family/home?

Did Yurchenko act as an agent provocateur to hide Aldrich Ames(crown jewels) by giving up a few lesser agents.

Maybe Amiri had a change of heart.....maybe Amiri was an active participant in "playing" western intelligence.....the Iranians are certainly not amateurs.....who knows?

[Ghent12]

Re: missing Iranian nuclear scientist SNAFU

well, i stand corrected. apparently he's a hero.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...400529_pf.html

That's how Iran must act, for now and in public at least. Similarly, the only way for the man to return to Iran is to claim that he was abducted. I don't understand the reason behind his apparent multiple accounts on what happened, however.