Schiff Happens

[Mega]

http://blog.ctnews.com/election2010/...-hell-primary/

Well....When....looking at my share potfolio "Schiff Happens" does come to mind!

& to think he was once to me what Crusty the clown was to bart Simpson!

Mike

[lsa420]

Re: Schiff Happens

http://blog.ctnews.com/election2010/...-hell-primary/

Well....When....looking at my share potfolio "Schiff Happens" does come to mind!

& to think he was once to me what Crusty the clown was to bart Simpson!

Mike

Mike - I am a EuroPac client and it has paid off handsomly for me. Schiff advocates high dividend yield equities of companies that produce real things, denominated in foreign currencies as a hedge against $$ devaluation. The other major investment recommendation is physical gold. What an idiot!

Peter began recommending gold and oil in 1998/1999 as he was warning of the Nasdaq Bubble. Are you counting this in your shit hit the fan portfolio? Unless you went all in on emerging market equities in 2007 then I'm not sure how you are doing so poorly.

I find it funny when people on iTulip bash Schiff as his commentary, though a bit more simplistic, is essentially the exact same thing that EJ and iTulip say. Perhaps Schiff is a bit more dramatic in his presentation (he is a broker), but the message is the same nonetheless.

[Mega]

Re: Schiff Happens

Am slighty ahead because it was +£2 to the $ when i went in...........must say i know many whom are NOT happy. Peter missed this "Deflationly period". I think he will be proved VERY right & i am watching the market to buy more via whats in my div a/c. Last time i guessed it right spot on, bought RIGHT at the bottom of the last crash.......see if i can time it again.

Cheers
Mike

[lsa420]

Re: Schiff Happens

Am slighty ahead because it was +£2 to the $ when i went in

The £ hit that level against the $ in June/July 2008 if I remember correctly. Definitely not ideal timing in regards to equity purchases. My recommendation? Go back in time and hold off until December '08/January '09. You will be much happier with the results.

As far as deflation or disinflation, I've heard him say many times that we should be having massive deflation but aren't and won't because of the fiscal/monetary response. Schiff asserts that this response is what will ultimately cause the $ to collapse.

Whatever the case, I am done defending someone else as it's hard enough to defend myself.

[pianodoctor]

Re: Schiff Happens

I am so far underwater with my Schiff portfolio, it's pathetic. He instantly more than halved my net worth. Yes I got in at the height of '07- because that is when I first saw his book. As to gold, get this- when I first came into to Euro Pac I told his rep that I wanted a 10-20% allocation to gold. Guess what the rep does- he tells me gold is no good, it doesn't pay a dividend, etc. That's right- that is how a Euro Pac rep presented the Schiff investment concept to someone who was specifically requesting a position in gold. Perth Mint, the product they promote. I hear all the standard Wall Street anti-gold BS that Schiff preaches against. At that time I was very naive- just another Joe Blow consumer, coming off a standard buy-and-hold diversified U.S. portfolio that a F.A. had me in. I went along with "no gold" because I thought the rep was an expert and I was supposed to listen to him. He was 'designing a portfolio based on my specific needs' he said. (At this point I suspect, but can't prove, that he doesn't get a commission for putting someone in Perth Mint gold.) It was only after that that I went on an emergency self-learning crash course and eventually discovered iTulip. If they would at least have sold me gold, I would have had a hedge and I would be a lot less bitter about Schiff. I did report the incident with the rep to Schiff, but he made no offer whatever to put things right. I was naive and unlearned enough to go along with his rep (who they assigned to me when I contacted them the first time), so I guess it's my fault. And this is not even getting into his lack of dilligence concerning the horrible debt situation of one of the Australian companies he put me in that has collapsed to near $0 or other "investments" that are down 80-90%. And what about Schiff's insistence before the crash that America would go down but 'the rest of the world will be fine'? And that the U.S would have a dollar collapse and hyperinflation and that the Yuan would skyrocket? But yeah, the dividends are nice. I've been buying gold with them. Would have been a lot better to get into the the gold at the price it was when I asked for it at Euro Pac however- like the high $600s.

[lsa420]

Re: Schiff Happens

I am so far underwater with my Schiff portfolio, it's pathetic. He instantly more than halved my net worth. Yes I got in at the height of '07- because that is when I first saw his book. As to gold, get this- when I first came into to Euro Pac I told his rep that I wanted a 10-20% allocation to gold. Guess what the rep does- he tells me gold is no good, it doesn't pay a dividend, etc. That's right- that is how a Euro Pac rep presented the Schiff investment concept to someone who was specifically requesting a position in gold. Perth Mint, the product they promote. I hear all the standard Wall Street anti-gold BS that Schiff preaches against. At that time I was very naive- just another Joe Blow consumer, coming off a standard buy-and-hold diversified U.S. portfolio that a F.A. had me in. I went along with "no gold" because I thought the rep was an expert and I was supposed to listen to him. He was 'designing a portfolio based on my specific needs' he said. (At this point I suspect, but can't prove, that he doesn't get a commission for putting someone in Perth Mint gold.) It was only after that that I went on an emergency self-learning crash course and eventually discovered iTulip. If they would at least have sold me gold, I would have had a hedge and I would be a lot less bitter about Schiff. I did report the incident with the rep to Schiff, but he made no offer whatever to put things right. I was naive and unlearned enough to go along with his rep (who they assigned to me when I contacted them the first time), so I guess it's my fault. And this is not even getting into his lack of dilligence concerning the horrible debt situation of one of the Australian companies he put me in that has collapsed to near $0 or other "investments" that are down 80-90%. And what about Schiff's insistence before the crash that America would go down but 'the rest of the world will be fine'? And that the U.S would have a dollar collapse and hyperinflation and that the Yuan would skyrocket? But yeah, the dividends are nice. I've been buying gold with them. Would have been a lot better to get into the the gold at the price it was when I asked for it at Euro Pac however- like the high $600s.

Your situation really sucks. I'm sorry to hear that you were treated that way. I must say it's very disappointing. Obviously impossible to control everything and every individual as the head of a company, but in any case, sounds like you got a raw deal. I've been fortunate and really like my broker. I feel like he knows what's going on. PM me if you'd like his name.

On a positive note, if you believe EJ's thesis of significant dollar devaluation (40 - 50 on the DXY) over the next several years (and possible Poom scenario), then I would think that your portfolio will not look so bad, especially getting those dividends in much appreciated foreign currency.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Schiff Happens

http://blog.ctnews.com/election2010/...-hell-primary/

Well....When....looking at my share potfolio "Schiff Happens" does come to mind!

& to think he was once to me what Crusty the clown was to bart Simpson!

Mike

zzz ZZZ zzz ZZZ zzz

[pianodoctor]

Re: Schiff Happens

Thanks for the kind words Isa420. The reason I have not dumped my Euro Pac investments is primarily because of what you say. I'm just kind of praying that in 10 or 15 years they will have proven to have been worthwhile. Meanwhile I try to build up my gold allocation more. Preferably, I'd like to have EJs ideal port, but I can't bring myself to sell Euro Pac picks at such a huge loss, and they do bring in about 5% or so a year now in dividends which helps fund my IRAs each year. A downturn in my business makes that even more precious, since it's getting harder to fund IRAs out of savings. I appreciate the offer to be in touch with your broker, but I make my own decisions and trades now. The broker I was assigned is gone now, BTW. Thanks again.

[EJ]

Re: Schiff Happens

Schiff as his commentary, though a bit more simplistic, is essentially the exact same thing that EJ and iTulip say. Perhaps Schiff is a bit more dramatic in his presentation (he is a broker), but the message is the same nonetheless.

This is a common misunderstanding so I'll address it here. Readers who have been following along with my notations about my management of my own account are aware of the following trades:

- I purchased Series I savings bonds (maximum allowed by a married couple) from 1998 to 2000. These are 30 year bonds earning 5.42%, 5.82%, and 6.02% respectively.
- I remained invested in technology stocks until April to July 2000, during which period I sold.
- I purchased 10 year Treasury bonds via a Treasury direct account in July 2000 at 6.05%.
- I did not take a major gold position until 2001, purchasing at an average price of $270.
- I have never owned euros.
- I do not own broad stock indexes.
- I do own a few individual stocks but do not discuss these here as the positions are insignificant and iTulip is not a stock picking site.

This combination of gold and Treasury bonds has roundly outperformed a typical portfolio comprised of the stock mutual fund and fixed income produces.

As 10-year Treasury bonds mature, what can I buy that returns north of 6%?

Among the options that are relevant to readers, I'm looking at MLPs and a custom-made portfolio that tracks the thesis of my upcoming book. These will be explained in upcoming seminars offered by the respective funds that offer these products. Among the options that are not relevant to readers are private company investments, although I will continue to champion the idea of making private equity investment for the masses a reality.

iTulip makes money off subscription fees, consulting fees, and book sales, not brokerage fees. We have no financial interest in any financial asset we discuss with the exception of BullionVault which we passively promote.

In terms of positions, we have never forecast a dollar crash. Reserve currencies don't crash, they fade away.

We do expect Treasury bonds prices to correct, and have discussed this idea since 1999, but have not until recently viewed the event as a near term possibility.

We do not expect hyperinflation, although we have explored the idea. We have never forecast more than 30% inflation in any one year following a dollar currency crisis.

[pianodoctor]

Re: Schiff Happens

Forgot to mention- as to Schiff not being able to control every employee- I get what you are saying. But at the same time, he inspected that portfolio and signed off on it as the F.A.. This after consistently preaching in word and in text that everyone ought to have a gold position. After I complained his man put me off gold, he got on his internet radio show and said words about how maybe gold isn't for everyone, and what happens if gold goes down?, blah blah. That was his idea of fixing the situation, I guess.

[lsa420]

Re: Schiff Happens

This is a common misunderstanding so I'll address it here. Readers who have been following along with my notations about my management of my own account are aware of the following trades:

- I purchased Series I savings bonds (maximum allowed by a married couple) from 1998 to 2000. These are 30 year bonds earning 5.42%, 5.82%, and 6.02% respectively.
- I remained invested in technology stocks until April to July 2000, during which period I sold.
- I purchased 10 year Treasury bonds via a Treasury direct account in July 2000 at 6.05%.
- I did not take a major gold position until 2001, purchasing at an average price of $270.
- I have never owned euros.
- I do not own broad stock indexes.
- I do own a few individual stocks but do not discuss these here as the positions are insignificant and iTulip is not a stock picking site.

This combination of gold and Treasury bonds has roundly outperformed a typical portfolio comprised of the stock mutual fund and fixed income produces.

As 10-year Treasury bonds mature, what can I buy that returns north of 6%?

Among the options that are relevant to readers, I'm looking at MLPs and a custom-made portfolio that tracks the thesis of my upcoming book. These will be explained in upcoming seminars offered by the respective funds that offer these products. Among the options that are not relevant to readers are private company investments, although I will continue to champion the idea of making private equity investment for the masses a reality.

iTulip makes money off subscription fees, consulting fees, and book sales, not brokerage fees. We have no financial interest in any financial asset we discuss with the exception of BullionVault which we passively promote.

In terms of positions, we have never forecast a dollar crash. Reserve currencies don't crash, they fade away.

We do expect Treasury bonds prices to correct, and have discussed this idea since 1999, but have not until recently viewed the event as a near term possibility.

We do not expect hyperinflation, although we have explored the idea. We have never forecast more than 30% inflation in any one year following a dollar currency crisis.

Thanks EJ. I'm sure the community will very much appreciate your response.

For the record, I did not in any way mean to imply that iTulip and EuroPac are similar businesses, or that iTulip is trying to sell financial products or push investments.

[pianodoctor]

Re: Schiff Happens

I always appreciate Eric's posts. I follow them diligently. I recognized some very significant differences between EJ and Schiff. And those differences have been very expensive to me because in those differences EJ has been right, and Schiff has been wrong, but I stumbled on Schiff first.

From my reading, I believe Schiff borrows the views of a few major influences including EJ, Jim Rogers, and Schiff's father- as well as Austrian Economics, (which isn't going to work in this financially borderless world and is more like ideology than valid theory these days). But these various influences aren't mutually compatible. For instance EJ is not compatible with Austrian Economics, hyperinflation, etc. Therefore Schiff picks and chooses the ideas that suit his notions and ignores those that don't. This doesn't strike me as genius thinking.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Schiff Happens

In terms of positions, we have never forecast a dollar crash. Reserve currencies don't crash, they fade away.

...

We do not expect hyperinflation, although we have explored the idea. We have never forecast more than 30% inflation in any one year following a dollar currency crisis.

May I ask how you differentiate between a "dollar crash" and "dollar currency crises", especially one that causes 30% annual inflation?

[FRED]

Re: Schiff Happens

May I ask how you differentiate between a "dollar crash" and "dollar currency crises", especially one that causes 30% annual inflation?

Argentine Inflation 1995 - 2009

In the year before the bond default in December 2001 and ending in late 2003, CPI inflation increased from -4% deflation to 120% inflation on an annual basis. Here at iTulip we call this process a “Ka-Poom” of deflation and inflation.

The Argentine peso, un-pegged from the U.S. dollar, collapsed by 73% in a few months, and over the next two years inflation wiped out savings and erased all debts.

Argentine Exchange Rates 1995 - 2009

The bond market disintegrated.

Argentine Bond Market 1995 - 2009

A U.S. bond crisis will never get this bad, but then it doesn’t need to for bond holders to lose most of their money.

Does USA 2009 = Argentina 2001? Part I: Falling economy reaches terminal velocity

We do not expect the dollar to fall 73% in a few months. Isn't going to happen.

[Gnosis]

Re: Schiff Happens

Wow,
I did the same thing when I read the Schiff book. Got temporarily excited to follow Europac ideas, even went to the offices and sat down with the rep they chose for me. BUT,.... my wife and I were shopping for a direction and frankly "felt" that there was something amiss with the interview. We waited. I found iTulip, and have followed this course more or less (more gold-less everything else). Glad I did, and will continue. Sorry to hear about Mega's and Pianodoc's experience.