John Hussman Recession Warning

[gvanc]

"Based on evidence that has always and only been observed during or immediately prior to U.S. recessions, the U.S. economy appears headed into a second leg of an unusually challenging downturn."

"Put bluntly, I believe that the economy is again turning lower, and that there is a reasonable likelihood that the U.S. stock market will ultimately violate its March 2009 lows before the current adjustment cycle is complete."

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100628.htm

[Ben]

Re: John Hussman Recession Warning

He's talking about M3?

[GRG55]

Re: John Hussman Recession Warning

He's talking about M3?

He would appear to be talking about much more than "M3"...

... Though I usually confine my views to statements about probability and "average" behavior, this becomes fruitless when every outcome associated with the data is negative, with no counterexamples. Put bluntly, I believe that the economy is again turning lower, and that there is a reasonable likelihood that the U.S. stock market will ultimately violate its March 2009 lows before the current adjustment cycle is complete. At present, the best argument against this outcome is that it is unthinkable. Unfortunately, once policy makers have squandered public confidence, the market does not care whether the outcomes it produces are unthinkable. Unthinkability is not evidence...

[Ben]

Re: John Hussman Recession Warning

Seems like they have a proprietary index of indicators.

The full article is a good read.

[LargoWinch]

Re: John Hussman Recession Warning

The following is quite a statement from Hussman:

[...there is a reasonable likelihood that the U.S. stock market will ultimately violate its March 2009 lows before the current adjustment cycle is complete.]

I agree more with Faber however, I think we have bottomed out in $nominal on March 2009, but far from over in $real/Au terms.

[LargoWinch]

Re: John Hussman Recession Warning

Seems like they have a proprietary index of indicators.

The full article is a good read.

Yes, and there are only few good ones out there.

Here is another: Yardeni Research.