Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

[GRG55]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Disappointed indeed:

...

Well if there really is an "open hole spewing 120,000 barrels a day" of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico from "several miles away", once BP kills the Macondo wellbore it'll be pretty hard to ignore the continuing rapidly growing slick that will keep spreading across the water in the weeks and months to come.

To my knowledge none of the NOAA supported investigations into the subsurface effects of the blowout has been able to detect any source for the contamination other than the Macondo wellhead. Seems to me a 120,000 barrel a day "open hole" would be rather difficult for BP or any else to cover up for very long.

Frankly, I think Simmons has completely lost it...

[LargoWinch]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

So far so good apparently. No reported indications of any subsurface breech of the wellbore [Matt Simmons must be soooooo disappointed...].

Disappointed indeed:

[touchring]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

So far so good apparently. No reported indications of any subsurface breech of the wellbore [Matt Simmons must be soooooo disappointed...]. The current pressure is at least 1000 psi lower than they were anticipating so I expect they will leave the well shut in and see if it continues to build overnight. There is no way to accurately know the reservoir drawdown or formation damage, each of which can influence the pressure build up behaviour..

So you mean there is no need to nuke the well? LOL

[GRG55]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

So far so good apparently. No reported indications of any subsurface breech of the wellbore [Matt Simmons must be soooooo disappointed...]. The current pressure is at least 1000 psi lower than they were anticipating so I expect they will leave the well shut in and see if it continues to build overnight. There is no way to accurately know the reservoir drawdown or formation damage, each of which can influence the pressure build up behaviour.

As I mentioned in a post above, what the engineers are most interested in is the "the characteristics of the pressure build up". Be assured that what all the armchair experts and the media will blather on about will be the maximum pressure itself...which is merely one data point.

[GRG55]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

This proves that the original Cameron BOP used by Transocean doesn't work. Was it Made in China?

Doesn't "prove" anything. There's two pieces of pipe side-by-side in the wellhead and original BOP. They discovered this when they finished cutting off the collapsed riser a couple of weeks ago. You can see the stub ends of the two pipes in the video when they lifted the top half of the high pressure flange connection. The BOP isn't designed to deal with two pieces of pipe jammed in it. That is why the pipe rams and blind rams wouldn't seal. Despite all the hysterics about "casing" being blown to bits and getting jammed in the wellhead, I am certain that when the well is killed and they retrieve the BOP stack they will confirm that the drill pipe hydrauliced when the well blew out and that is what is stuck in the BOPs.

The force of a blowout is phenomenal. There is an infamous video of the 1982 Amoco Lodgepole [Alberta] sour gas well blowout that shows the entire drill pipe string being ejected from this deep gas well in a matter of seconds. The amount of drill pipe in that well was much greater than the BP well because Amoco was on bottom trying to circulate out a kick when they lost control of the well. The force of the out of control natural gas flow snakes the drill pipe out of the hole and all the way up through the derrick of the drilling rig like wet spaghetti. The sparks from the drill pipe striking the derrick ignited the gas from the well. Fortunately the crew had already abandoned the rig and there were no fatalities.

[Roughneck]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

So far so good this morning. The pressure is up close to 7000 psi( by news reports) I haven't seen the actual gauge on the live feeds. I guess I shouldn't have been so pessimistic last night but given how things have gone optimism is something we are short on down here. The other side of the coin is perhaps BP was encouraged by the signs they were seeing from the slip cap and thought the well could handle the pressure.I still cant see them leaving it blocked in under that pressure given the circumstances. More than likely they will resume collecting oil until the relief well is drilled.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Dang - 500 psi is nothing.

According to The Washington Post: Oil leak is stopped for first time since April 20 blowout, they got near 7,000 psi:

Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the national incident commander, has said that a pressure reading of 8,000 or 9,000 pounds per square inch would be ideal, while below 6,000 psi might indicate leakage. Hunter, who witnessed the test from BP's war room in Houston, told The Washington Post that the pressure rose to about 6,700 psi and appeared likely to level out "closer to 7,000." He said one possibility is that the reservoir has lost pressure as it has depleted itself the past three months.


"It's just premature to tell. We just don't know whether something is leaking or not," Hunter said.

[reggie]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Government’s Expert Witness: Over 42 million gallons of dispersant used during BP oil disaster
By oilflorida, on July 14th, 2010
http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/go...p-oil-disaster


More dispersant applied “than the amount of OIL spilled in any single accident prior to the BP disaster”

Presidential oil spill commission urged to address dispersant issue promptly, New Orleans Times Picayune, July 13, 2010:

Christopher Reddy, an associate scientist of marine chemistry and geochemistry at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said the use of surface dispersants is extremely typical and well understood to be safe, but some concern remains about their use in the sea’s depths. …


Reddy said he is also concerned about the total amount of dispersants used, which is unprecedented. He noted that 1 million barrels [42 million gallons] of dispersants have been applied to the Gulf of Mexico to fight this spill, more than the amount of oil spilled in any single accident prior to the BP disaster.


Reilly also said the dispersants’ unknown effect on fisheries is troublesome. “You know a lot of fishermen have very strong reservations about dispersants, that it hides the oil under the surface and makes it hard for the fish to avoid it,” Reilly said. “That’s what we found in Prince William Sound” after the 1989 Exxon Valdez tanker spill in Alaska, during Reilly’s time as EPA chief.

Another report in the Times Picayune restates the massive 42 million gallon figure:

Reddy said the total amount of dispersants used is unprecedented and cause for more study. He noted that 1 million barrels of dispersants have been applied to the Gulf of Mexico to fight this spill, more than the amount of oil spilled in any single accident prior to the BP disaster.

Previous reports have put the amount of dispersants used at between 1-2 million gallons (25,000-50,000 barrels).


Was the 1 million BARRELS an error by the Picayune?

The scientist noted the amount of dispersants applied to date are “more than the amount of oil spilled in any single accident prior to the BP disaster”. The Exxon Valdez released at least 10 million gallons (approximately 250,000 barrels) of crude oil. The widely reported 1-2 million gallon dispersant figure is no where near the 10 million gallons spilled during the Valdez.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

About three hours in the gauge was only showing 500 psi.

Dang - 500 psi is nothing. Was this with the flow out their new BOP completely closed off?

Do you have some idea how (and how well) they can determine the depth and the extent of any such sub surface leaks, given what they have in place at present?

[Roughneck]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

The fact that BP is blocking the well in suggests to me that they suspect the well bore has issues. I cannot see them blocking in the well and exposing it to high pressure which in itself could cause problems or make them worse if they didn't suspect a leak. They also may be trying to find the depth at which it is leaking to give then an idea about the depth of the relief well. About three hours in the gauge was only showing 500 psi. Just checked and the gauge camera is off line. That is just my .02. My big question is why they didn't do this earlier. Early on they did not have enough surface capacity to contain all of the leak but you would think they could have done so in less than 90 days. It could be that the flow and pressure readings they obtained from the slip cap led them to believe the well bore may be leaking sub surface. We should know pretty quick.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

I am happy to report to you that as of 1:30PM EDT, there has been ZERO oil flowing into the Gulf of Mexico.

That's ZERO flowing out the well head. I trust BP would not tell us if oil from this well was leaking out the sea floor elsewhere.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Dear Mr. Guidry:

I am happy to report to you that as of 1:30PM EDT, there has been ZERO oil flowing into the Gulf of Mexico. As a tiny stockholder of BP, I can now look forward to a recovery of BP share value, and I can collect all of the dividends along the way.

Sorry to read about damage to your shrimp industry, but BP has agreed to pay legitimate claims for losses caused by this oil spill.

As for damage to the environment, please understand that oil is NOT toxic. I swam in oil in the California surf where oil commonly leaks out of earthquake faults. No-one has been injured or poisoned by oil in the surf, nor by oil deposited on the beaches of California.

As for so-called deaths caused by oil in Alaska due to the Exxon-Valdez oil spill, I would like a list of the names of all workers who helped in the clean-up in Alaska, their ages, the names of all who died and their ages. Then I want to check normal expected deaths due to age and compare the normal death statistics of people in Alaska to the death statistics (or death rates by age) of those who worked for Exxon-Valdez in the clean-up effort. I also want the cause of death of those who worked in the clean-up effort. Then, I would like to check the allegation that oil caused cancer.

We witnessed this kind of junk science before when the EPA was trying to link uranium miners with lung cancer. After reviewing the junk science carefully, we found that those who died of lung cancer in uranium mines had been those miners who were cigarette smokers. Their cancers were caused by cigarette smoke, not by uranium mining.

So I am skeptical of allegations being made against BP. I just want to carefully check all of the data linking oil in water to deaths in Alaska, or in the Gulf of Mexico, or wherever. I need everything explained to me and proven, because I am a slow learner.

Also, you mentioned dispersants and solvents causing cancer. There might be a better case for such a claim, but then why do dishwashing liquids not cause cancer? Benzene causes cancer, but detergents do not cause cancer. So, I need more help with understanding the validity of these claims against BP.

I am Starving Steve. And I do disclose that I hold 200 shares of BP stock. Please contact me through National Bank Financial in Victoria, BC Canada. Please do not take my comments here at itulip as a recommendation to buy or to sell any stock. (I just enjoy a good debate.)

[we_are_toast]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Oil guys, any comment on this;

I'm sorry, but I have to ask, What the hell are they doing? We now have an ability to capture all the oil and stop this massive pollution of the Gulf (as well as measure it). We have great weather to get the relief well completed. We already know, without the "well integrity test", that they have severe damage to the BOP and other surface equipment and casing. If that weren't true, the damn thing wouldn't have blown out in the first place. We also know that between the "capping stack" and the old BOP that there is a non-wellhead rated piece of equipment, known as the flex joint, along with the riser adapter, that we've talked about before. This piece of equipment, that normally sits above the BOP, is not rated to nearly those pressures encountered by wellhead equipment. All of the other components in this BOP are rated to at least 10,000 psi (new, off the shelf, and undamaged); this piece is by far the weakest link in the chain, especially since it took severe stresses as the rig sank and 5,000 feet of riser torqued it as it sank. Yesterday, Adm. Allen announced they were going to take the stack, including this flex joint, to as high as 9,000 psi for up to 48 hours. I have been unable to learn the model and rating of the flex joint here, but Oil States advertises their LMRP flex joints to be rated 600-6,000 psi, far below the 9,000 to which Adm Allen said they would potentially go; even with the 2,200 psi of hydrostatic pressure on the outside of the compenent caused by it being in 5,000 feet of water, it's still at least 1,000 psi differential pressure over the rating of the component.

We later received information that the Oil States FlexJoint actually in place is a Model 5, and therefore has a MWP (maximum working pressure) of 5000 psi. So now, the pressures Our Government has signed off on applying, are at least 2,000 psi differential pressure over the rating of the component!

...

That's alarming enough, but there are many bad things that can happen when you're just sitting there circulating on bottom at 17,840... FOR DAYS. Now that they're having problems with the choke on the capping stack, it might easily be DAYS AND DAYS. You can lose circulation and get stuck. You can lose a mud pump for a matter of minutes and get stuck. You can lose the section of un-cased hole you just drilled (which is at a critical point for the intercept) and make directional control much more difficult getting it back. There are more, and worse things that could happen, but I won't mention them because the crew and equipment on that relief well are the absolute best, and none of those worse things will happen.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

The old grey lady, The New York Times, has weighed in on the same details of testing the new BOP, speculating that the pressure testing will start tomorrow, Thursday 15 July 2010, in an article at U.S. Delays Test of Device That Could Seal Gulf Well. Like the articles I posted above, this one also discusses the possibility that a pressure drop inside the wellbore after closing the BOP could indicate damage in the well, in which case the BOP valves would be re-opened.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Update on BP's top kill efforts, now largest spill in US History

Another news article at BP Testing Delayed on Gulf Oil Fix, this one from CBS/AP, regarding the delay in testing the new BOP and the concerns of causing more damage with pressure increases:

BP Testing Delayed on Gulf Oil Fix


Gulf Gusher to Keep Flowing as Cap Test Delayed;
Government Officials Say More Analysis Needed on
the Plan


A pivotal moment in the Gulf oil crisis hit an unexpected snag Tuesday evening when officials announced they needed more time before they could begin choking off the geyser of crude at the bottom of the sea.

BP and federal officials did not say what prompted the decision or when the testing would begin on a new, tighter-fitting cap it had just installed on the blown-out well. The oil giant had been scheduled to start slowly shutting off valves on the 75-ton cap, aiming to stop the flow of oil for the first time in three months.

Officials from British Petroleum say a new oil containment cap could be in place and stopping. It seemed BP was on track to start the test Tuesday afternoon. The cap, lowered over the blown-out well Monday night, is designed to be a temporary fix until the well is plugged underground.

A series of methodical, preliminary steps were completed before progress stalled. Engineers spent hours on a seismic survey, creating a map of the rock under the sea floor to spot potential dangers, like gas pockets. It also provides a baseline to compare with later surveys during and after the test to see if the pressure on the well is causing underground problems.

An unstable area around the wellbore could create bigger problems if the leak continued elsewhere in the well after the cap valves were shut, experts said.

"It's an incredibly big concern," said Don Van Nieuwenhuise, director of Professional Geoscience Programs at the University of Houston. "They need to get a scan of where things are, that way when they do pressure testing, they know to look out for ruptures or changes."

.
See more of this article with more details at the above link or in the attached .pdf.