2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

[touchring]

2009's Most Active Global Real Estate Markets
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35676535?slide=1

china $156 billion
hk $9 billion

UK $39 billion
USA $38 billion
Japan $19 billion
Germany $14 billion
France $10 billion
South Korea $10 billion
Australia $7 billion
Taiwan $5 billion

[Ibsen]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

2009's Most Active Global Real Estate Markets
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35676535?slide=1

china $156 billion
hk $9 billion

UK $39 billion
USA $38 billion
Japan $19 billion
Germany $14 billion
France $10 billion
South Korea $10 billion
Australia $7 billion
Taiwan $5 billion

should these figures not be normalized to population size i.e. $/head?
At a glance, Australia would come tops

[touchring]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

should these figures not be normalized to population size i.e. $/head?
At a glance, Australia would come tops

Then you'll have to normalize by income as well. A Chinese farmer earns about $50 a month.

[we_are_toast]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

China up from 64 Billion in 2008?! In the early 2000's they were building entire cities, and now during this depression they increase building by 242% in one year?

Not buying it. I don't believe any of the numbers coming out of China.

[touchring]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

China up from 64 Billion in 2008?! In the early 2000's they were building entire cities, and now during this depression they increase building by 242% in one year?

Not buying it. I don't believe any of the numbers coming out of China.

They run out of space in the cities, but there's more space in the countryside. now do you believe?

[dummass]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

They run out of space in the cities, but there's more space in the countryside. now do you believe?

This actually makes a whole lot of sense. By putting all the humans in a dense building with a small footprint, it preserves space for crop lands. The human waste byproducts can be recycled as crop fertilizer and mulch. In turn, such a centralized system would limit the need for transportation.

I don't know if these are the goals of this project, but it could be a good model for future growth.

[pksubs]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

This actually makes a whole lot of sense. By putting all the humans in a dense building with a small footprint, it preserves space for crop lands. The human waste byproducts can be recycled as crop fertilizer and mulch. In turn, such a centralized system would limit the need for transportation.

I don't know if these are the goals of this project, but it could be a good model for future growth.

Are the pictures from the 'village in the sky' project they have going on in china? The link below describes a little of it :

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=azXVqyY6O8cQ

[MulaMan]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

All I know is that China will be the greast short in the history of human markets.

You just need to get the timing right. I'd say between 5 and 40 years.

You can think of China as similar to America at the turn of the last century, of course with big differences, except that China will have it's 1933. You can bank on it.

[touchring]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

All I know is that China will be the greast short in the history of human markets.

You just need to get the timing right. I'd say between 5 and 40 years.

You can think of China as similar to America at the turn of the last century, of course with big differences, except that China will have it's 1933. You can bank on it.

5 and 40 years? no need so long, the bubble will burst this year, and then deepen next year.

[nicmakaveli]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

5 and 40 years? no need so long, the bubble will burst this year, and then deepen next year.

what makes you come to this conclusion?

I'm in RE here, it's out of hand, but I've been calling wolf forever, and until now, all my clients have been right and me wrong since 2005

[nicmakaveli]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

All I know is that China will be the greast short in the history of human markets.

You just need to get the timing right. I'd say between 5 and 40 years.

You can think of China as similar to America at the turn of the last century, of course with big differences, except that China will have it's 1933. You can bank on it.

btw, china did have it's 1933, around the same time, I guess the news got lost.
It was mainly Shanghai.
During the 20's, 30's and 40's shanghai experienced what most elder citizens recall as it's glory time.
Then something went really wrong (i'm to ignorant to remember), but people told me about loading carts with money because thats how they had to buy food.
They say that time, qian bu zhi qian, money wasn't worth money, inflation went through the roof.

[jpatter666]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

btw, china did have it's 1933, around the same time, I guess the news got lost.
It was mainly Shanghai.
During the 20's, 30's and 40's shanghai experienced what most elder citizens recall as it's glory time.
Then something went really wrong (i'm to ignorant to remember), but people told me about loading carts with money because thats how they had to buy food.
They say that time, qian bu zhi qian, money wasn't worth money, inflation went through the roof.

love that quote -- qian bu zhi qian, money wasn't worth money

[nicmakaveli]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

haha yeah,

honestly, I'd hate for superinflation or something happening to the currency.
But I wouldn't mind an asset bubble burst, I'd actually really embrace it, I cashed out of the RE market, and have stayed cash since.
BOO Gold, no touch stocks either anymore.

but with commie party in place, I just don't see it happening, I tell you, if the bubble would burst significantly, you'd have bigger problems than investment losses here.

[touchring]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

what makes you come to this conclusion?

I'm in RE here, it's out of hand, but I've been calling wolf forever, and until now, all my clients have been right and me wrong since 2005

Because it's China, which isn't a free market.

The number one priority is not the economy, but the hegemony of the Chinese Communist party. They unleashed the demon last year in fear of joblessness led rebellions like the one in Xinjiang last year, now, they can't control it.

Number two, one of the easiest way a corrupt local government official can make money is by borrowing from the bank and using the cash to build real estate, you get kick back from contractors and builders and it is very difficult to track if the bribe is paid in cash or outside China.

Take the following project an example. Even a 5% kickback would mean ten million bucks. Shared among 20 official, it will come up to 500 grand a person.

More likely the kick back would be in the region of 10 to 20 percent. Why would you think Chinese government officials all like to build skyscrapers when there are already so many empty buildings?? ;)

This was the exactly same thing that led to the Asian financial crisis that made the Indonesia economy plunge 30%, except for the case of China, the officials are 10 times bolder and 10 times more efficient in ripping off the banks.




There are a few things they can do to stop it.

1. Ban real estate transactions for 6 months.
2. Impose 10% tax on gross value of transactions.

All of which will stop the bubble but also crush the market.

[nicmakaveli]

Re: 2009 Investment in China's real estate as much as than the rest of the world combined?

I get that much, as said, I'm in RE here.
I'm more curious about your prediction in timing