Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

[Marek]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

+1

It really is the elephant in the room.

While i whole heartedly agree with the premise... Its not going to happen until the country itself is officially acknowledged as broke... Rome's military strength didn't disappear until after Rome financially collapsed. USSR's cold war activities didn't stop until they collapsed... Pretenses will be kept up to the very last minute, until they just dont... Its sort of like being the poorest person in the neighborhood and trying to keep up with the jones's; until you lose your job, then you just cant..... At that point you start tightening.....

Historically as far as i can tell, armies never shrink unless they are forced to........

I believe Winston Churchill said something to the effect of, "America can be relied upon to do the right thing; right after all other available options have been exhausted.". And I agree with you. This change will not be a matter of enlightened choice.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

Arthur Laffer (an Economist) certainly defended supply side economics and the trickle down argument is argument used when defending the morality of favoring the rich is that a healthy productive economy is best for all including the poor. Whether they actually believe that BS I don't know but they use it.

[ggirod]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

Yes, by itself, but there's a lot that can be done to prop up the economy during the transition stage - the US can also do what the Chinese had always been doing, print money to subsidize factory production, build high speed railways, electric cars, and power stations - tariffs will ensure that most of the labor will come from within the US. There's also so much that can be fixed, roads, bridges, power plants.

Of course. As soon as you print money, and don't need to pay interest into eternity, lots of things become possible.

Within a year or two there could be near full good paying employment in the private sector with projects such as wind turbines, solar powered steam/refrigerant turbines, solar panels all sorts of places, insulation at very low cost for homes and buildings, and that is just energy conservation.

Imagine the payback period for wind/solar power when there is no interest on the debt! Oh, just for kicks and grins we could, as a nation, decide to collect a percentage of the power revenue to pay back the investment, and then turn the installations over to utilities or electric cooperatives in return for lower electric rates into perpetuity. I would be in favor of that, but even if we didn't recover the costs, the effect of lower energy costs on our productivity would be astounding.

Imagine the export advantage when, during the coming peak cheap energy decades, we have wind and solar power in abundance. Heck, at that rate we could build a few nukes, too. When it comes to energy, I am a believer in utilities putting their nukes where the sun don't shine, which is a lot of places. Where sun and wind are abundant harvest the free stuff.

OK - lets see, add in tearing down abandoned buildings and turning the land over to the citizenry for gardens, etc. and you have even more value. Cities would not have to support blighted neighborhoods and the population could consolidate into the better homes. If we got people earning real money again, then the non-working spouse (what a concept) could take the implements along in the morning on their walk and bring home the broccoli with the help of the kids. Pretty soon the economy would be back on its feet with a new basis -- PEOPLE DOING REAL FRIGGIN WORK WITH REAL RESULTS. What a concept!

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

Those clinging to the meme that defense is off limits are either weak on imagination or in denial.

By the millions they are both.

As unease and discontent grows, they get even more susceptible to the scary stories told by the military industrial complex; more entrenched in their belief any threat can be bombed away; that defense jobs are not really public works projects; more eager to vote for military strong men.

I hope they come around to see that we can no longer afford spending more on defense every year than the rest of the world combined, and that our public jobs programs should make things of immediate economic utility, like sewer plants or paving machines.

I talk about this to my formerly sane conservative friends, and they adamantly support more military at any cost.

[GRG55]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

By the millions they are both.

As unease and discontents grows, they get even more susceptible to the scary stories told by the military industrial complex; more entrenched in their belief any threat can be bombed away; that defense jobs are not really public works projects; more eager to vote for military strong men.

I hope they come around to see that we can no longer afford spending more on defense every year than the rest of the world combined, and that our public jobs programs should make things of immediate economic utility, like sewer plants or paving machines.

I talk about this to my formerly sane conservative friends, and they adamantly support more military at any cost.

The USA started the Afghan and Iraq "wars" in the wake of the last recession. Contrary to their election platform in both the 2006 mid-terms and the 2008 Presidential campaign, the Democrats have done nothing to extricate the USA from that quagmire, and instead have in the past year twice increased troop counts in Afghanistan.

I don't even want to think what new adventures are going to come in the wake of this recession...

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

I don't even want to think what new adventures are going to come in the wake of this recession...

Assuming China has the same sort of political scoundrels facing the same set of circumstances, we can set criteria and nominate candidates.

Criteria: Easy access, some excuse for being involved, destroys huge amounts of military hardware.

Candidates:
-North Korea
-Taiwan
-A regional conflict near Islamabad, where Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and India all come together. (this one even gives Russia a chance to participate through Tajikistan)

[DToM67]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

from the NYT: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35504954...w_york_times//

This article also points out to manufacturing jobs lost and low skilled jobs lost I find it funny that in all this debate about keeping companies in the US only regulations or penalties are brought up as a way of keeping companies here. Not once are incentives considered. how about cutting the corporate tax rate which is one of the highest in developed countries? I think that would much more than just penalizing companies for leaving...

Funny, we're perfectly OK with protectionism, so long as its "intellectual property".

How and why we (seem to) believe its wise and/or feasible (to attempt) to protect the immaterial, on an international stage... as opposed to physical things and personal/states rights locally is baffling.

[jk]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

This is a hypothetical scenario - impose a 50% tax on ALL imported goods and services, with the exception of food and basic necessities. Companies will need to pay a 50% tax for services and software remittances.

If it costs too much to import, US firms will start making the stuff or engage local contractors instead of outsourcing. In the short term, 1-2 years, unemployment will rise even further as retailers get hit and close shop, and high end exporters get hit by retaliatory tariffs, but after 2 years, domestic production will kick start and start making stuff and services that were formerly imported. Retail jobs will also return. On top of that, the trade and federal deficit disappears.

just for fun, let's call it the smoot-hawley tariff.

and re "defense" spending and military "commitments" abroad- i agree they won't be cut until there is another, bigger financial crisis, specifically hitting the dollar.

[karim0028]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

and re "defense" spending and military "commitments" abroad- i agree they won't be cut until there is another, bigger financial crisis, specifically hitting the dollar.

Yup, as i recall after the fall of Rome, Roman soldiers stationed abroad were left to rott... They had to hitch hike back home.... Military's almost never go away...

Hell, i go to Egypt often and the country is poor as shit with ~18-20% inflation yearly and Military is about the major employer as well as the employer of last resort, funded in whole by dear rich old Uncle Sam.....

You see soldiers standing on the streets holding AK47's with no ammo But, they are "gainfully" employed in the biggest bueracracy there is, the govt... ;) Would probably have to kill somebody to get fired and even then its doubtful...

All you have to do is look around at other countries to see what the future holds..... It might not be an overnight change but its a change that will come... Just look at countries like Egypt, Argentina, Cuba, Venezula, etc...

Each one of the afore mentioned countries was a Jewel about 50-100 years ago, look at them now.... I know Egypt was more modern and a better place to live 50 years ago... From what i heard from my grandfather It was like/better than living in the US, clean wide streets, professional jobs, wealthy (Egyptian Pound was backed by Gold), was a net creditor, could feed its self, comfortable middle class, etc.... Now Egypt just has rich and poor... Middle Class is the folks like my self and family that come visit from overseas... Brits used to want to retire in Egypt; it was an open society....

Argentina was the same way... It was considered a rich country in the early 1900's, wealthy patrons used to flock there, like they do at the Riviera today. Times change, Super powers change and fortunes change...

[jheis]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

Eventually, as the U.S. empire faces collapse, I expect the most expensive and advanced military weapon systems to be sold to China at bargain prices to raise cash for the increasingly panicing U.S. government..

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

Eventually, as the U.S. empire faces collapse, I expect the most expensive and advanced military weapon systems to be sold to China at bargain prices to raise cash for the increasingly panicing U.S. government..

Will we (the U.S.) sell them to China, or use them on China :eek:?

[tsetsefly]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

Yes, by itself, but there's a lot that can be done to prop up the economy during the transition stage - the US can also do what the Chinese had always been doing, print money to subsidize factory production, build high speed railways, electric cars, and power stations - tariffs will ensure that most of the labor will come from within the US. There's also so much that can be fixed, roads, bridges, power plants.

Once the projects get going, there won't be enough unemployed people to fill up the jobs. The "20 million ilegals" are definitely needed and more workers will need to be imported.

That would would be disastrous, you would have an over indebted government getting more in debt and in the process devaluing the currency even further.
You cannot rely on the government to create jobs, well you can if you want to lower the standard of living dramatically...

[ggirod]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

That would would be disastrous, you would have an over indebted government getting more in debt and in the process devaluing the currency even further.
You cannot rely on the government to create jobs, well you can if you want to lower the standard of living dramatically...

That applies only if you go into debt. If you print with no intention of replacing the money later (just like government borrowing but sans centuries of interest) then fewer bad things happen. The currency gets devalued a bit when you print the money but after that, it is a fait accompli - no interest for your grandchildren or anybody else.

Oh, wait, I forgot, a vampire squid sheds a tear and sends out a legion of lobbyists (wow - "legion of lobbyists" I like that) to pull congress back onto the path... After all, "Got to keep the loonies on the path".

Oh, and as for the standards of living -- if the money goes straight to US companies that produce and install stuff, the wages of the common man rise, since making bearings and rotors for wind turbines is a lot more value add than flipping burgers or serving coffee.

I will grant you that printing money and spending it wisely will affect lifestyles, but only of the rich and famous. They won't get nearly as much of the vigorish as if we gave it all to them and said "gee, you really look like you know your stuff -- I like the cut of your jib! ... spend this wisely oh great oligarch, and get us out of this mess, please. Thank you. By the way, no need to account for the stuff, we trust you.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

That would would be disastrous, you would have an over indebted government getting more in debt and in the process devaluing the currency even further.
You cannot rely on the government to create jobs, well you can if you want to lower the standard of living dramatically...

I think touchring is saying that government can create an environment that is conducive to private-sector, domestic job growth. That's something that has to be done. Much of the infrastructure stimulus will end up going to China due to the U.S. having off-shored much of its industrial capacity.

China's government is intervening to create jobs for its own citizenry. It seems that the only way to counter China's governmental actions, which are detrimental to the interests of the average U.S. citizen, is with governmental actions of our own.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Millions of unemployed face years without jobs

just for fun, let's call it the smoot-hawley tariff.

Would Smoot-Hawley hurt the U.S. at this point considering how hosed we are? My understanding about the repercussions of the Smoot-Hawley tariff is that it resulted in other nations reciprocating the protectionist measures the U.S. enacted and thus prevented the U.S. from being able to export its way out of the Great Depression.

Being that the U.S. doesn't manufacture much anymore, would it really hurt the U.S. so much to re-industrialize (perhaps with government assistance) and, after the manufacturing companies are set up, enact some sort of Smoot-Hawley tariff against select nations?