Growth is not possible

[sunskyfan]

Re: Growth is not possible

I hear the new target rate for the Fed will be 1.38e-8 ;).

[sunskyfan]

Re: Bill Gates Warns Of Dystopian Future

But Gates said the all this bleakness can be avoided if enough money is spent developing technological and social innovations that add efficiency to agriculture, medicine, education, and other key fields.

Not if these new technologies are using a Microsoft operating system.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Growth is not possible

As I said, once we humanely reduce population on this planet, mankind is going to prosper, beyond belief. There are no shortages of anything, not even fresh-water, not energy, not even oil. There are no limits to what can be achieved.

But religion has to be confronted now. Population growth is a threat to the well-being of mankind.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Growth is not possible

As I said, once we humanely reduce population on this planet, mankind is going to prosper, beyond belief. There are no shortages of anything, not even fresh-water, not energy, not even oil. There are no limits to what can be achieved.

But religion has to be confronted now. Population growth is a threat to the well-being of mankind.

Well said!

[Aetius Romulous]

Re: Growth is not possible

As I said, once we humanely reduce population on this planet, mankind is going to prosper, beyond belief. There are no shortages of anything, not even fresh-water, not energy, not even oil. There are no limits to what can be achieved.

But religion has to be confronted now. Population growth is a threat to the well-being of mankind.

Once some men kill some other men, the survivors will prosper. Now where have I heard that before ?

I don't think absolute depletion is the issue (unless you live in Yemen), but the increasing costs of extraction, which also include the social and environmental "external" costs.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Growth is not possible

Once some men kill some other men, the survivors will prosper. Now where have I heard that before ?

That's a false choice. We don't need to kill people, we just need to use birth control pills.

[aaron]

Re: Growth is not possible

That's a false choice. We don't need to kill people, we just need to use birth control pills.

Which brings us back to the religion thing. It is almost like they plan for an apocalypse of Malthusian proportions. The population explodes, something bad happens, population collapses, and we are left with a much smaller, but sustainable number of humans. Heaven on earth!

[vanvaley1]

Re: Growth is not possible

Are there any countries that have financial incentives not to have children and/or only a limited number?

[flintlock]

Re: Growth is not possible

Are there any countries that have financial incentives not to have children and/or only a limited number?

Here in the US we do the opposite. Tax deductions and child tax credits. Welfare payments based on the number of kids you have. Property taxes that mainly go to educate children, regardless if you have kids or not.

You don't have to kill people to slow down the exponential growth. Merely reduce the incentives.

I have three kids, thanks for all the tax credits America.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Growth is not possible

Here in the US we do the opposite. Tax deductions and child tax credits. Welfare payments based on the number of kids you have. Property taxes that mainly go to educate children, regardless if you have kids or not.

You don't have to kill people to slow down the exponential growth. Merely reduce the incentives.

I have three kids, thanks for all the tax credits America.

Not true in any practical way. I have never met anyone who had another child because it somehow put money into their pocket. The tax breaks are only a minor relief at $1,000 per child per year (or less).

Are you seriously suggesting we eliminate public schools? We'd have packs of illiterate children roaming the streets growing up to be criminals.

And you are welcome for the tax credits. I presume the money went towards building a stable home life and raising healthy children into productive citizens - money well spent.

[peakishmael]

Re: Growth is not possible

Ahh.. hiccup.. I see.

Can you spot the hiccup on the chart below?

Right around 1000 AD, right? ;)

So, forget about whether growth is possible (although I agree we are at the end of that rope)... why is it desirable?

[Rajiv]

Re: Growth is not possible

Because of Genesis 1:28

And God blessed them. And God said to them, “Be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth and subdue it and have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the heavens and over every living thing that moves on the earth.”

[flintlock]

Re: Growth is not possible

Not true in any practical way. I have never met anyone who had another child because it somehow put money into their pocket. The tax breaks are only a minor relief at $1,000 per child per year (or less).

Are you seriously suggesting we eliminate public schools? We'd have packs of illiterate children roaming the streets growing up to be criminals.

And you are welcome for the tax credits. I presume the money went towards building a stable home life and raising healthy children into productive citizens - money well spent.

Of course I'm not advocating eliminating public schools. I'm just pointing out how we make it too easy for those who can't afford kids to have them anyway. The cost is more and more being passed on to the taxpayers. Good thing we have such a financially sound government to "pay" for it.:rolleyes:

If having kids meant total poverty and destitution for Joe six-pack making $20k year, he'd think twice where he put mister willie on Saturday night. We aren't talking Ozzie and Harriet here. We are talking one night stands, welfare brood mares, and irresponsible people who can't take care of themselves much less a child.

Just today I received in the mail a notice from the IRS that an part time employee has not paid his 2007 taxes and now I'll have to start taking extra money out of his pay. The guy is divorced with three kids. One with disabilities. He's constantly behind on child support. Yet he and his new "fiance" are thinking about having a child together because that "would be like, neat." Why not? What's one more kid on food stamps, medicaid, etc. It's not like he is going to be paying for it. Oh, and she is in the middle of a bankruptcy. Perfect time to have another kid at age 40. :eek:

I know poor people don't have kids just because of the freebies. I seriously doubt they put much thought into any of it. But it does allow them to avoid facing the real financial consequences.

Oh, and the tax breaks are substantial for many when you consider the deduction for dependents, tax credits, etc, all x 18+ years. I'm not saying I'm against all these subsidies. Only pointing out that they have unintended consequences. Not unlike the push to make everyone a homeowner.

[due_indigence]

Re: Growth is not possible

I agree. Japan's population example I bring up is but one real world constraint on the current Ponzi Monetary System.

You know what another constraint is? EROEI - Energy returned on energy invested. Energy, the lifeblood of any economy, is getting more expensive.

We should also look at a nation's build-out. Sure, a nation will always build/repair bridges, airports, highways, cities, etc... but eventually, the rate of growth slows down as well. You can't compare the Western World's buildout between the 1950s-1960s and today.

So, energy gets more expensive, populations level off, infrastucture growth slows.... so what does a monetary/financial system do then?

It evolves... it focuses on accelerating consumption by facilitating credit to more and more people... it evolves and creates new financial tools - if you run out of bridges to finance, you start financing gambles (CDSs) on what little real world necessary loans there are... you evolve and coax your government into entering unfair trade treaties that may one day destroy your middle class.... but you don't make the connection that the same middle class you're destroying is owing you more and more money every year. Your greed kills the golden goose, the middle class, so to speak. But no worries, you control the government and it will take care of you.

Sorry for the rant. But it amuses me to watch economists talk their theories of creating and managing money as if money is an independent entity. Money is an abstraction, It's the real world that matters more. The real world changes first... then money's evolution follows.

Exceedingly well-said gnk...

Bubble capitalism is nothing more than late-advanced capitalism dining upon itself. I think EJ has said as much. However artificial (or financialized/FIRE) growth of sufficient scale requires a Greater Fool of equivalent scale to absorb this papered-over parody of productive capitalism. That Fool was China (as it invested its trapped export profits in U.S. Potemkin Village Fannie/Freddie paper). In fact Wall Street was so enamored with its financialized profits that it concurrently facilitated the massive malinvestment/overbuild of US housing stock to the tune of about 4 million homes. These homes rationalized the lucrative paper. Habitation was an afterthought, as attested to by hundreds of vacant subdivisions all over America.

Alas China will not be fooled twice. Nor is the world making any more Chinas. Thus the Ponzi bankers find themselves in a cul de sac. Marx never predicted the sheer imaginativeness of late-capitalism in its efforts to prolong itself. Who could have?

Since capitalism will never embrace a sustainability model (tantamount to the banks slitting their own throats), it will opt for radical supply destruction instead. Only war profits and subsequent lucrative re-build (Marshall Plan II after WW III) can furnish the necessary scale. And what adversary presents a big enough sink? Why, Iran of course. The bonus is that Iran represents the Zionist's Public Enemy Number One. So you get all the benefits of large-scale protracted war while making the world safer for Israel. I call that a plan.

You couldn't hire a more malevolent poster-child than Iran's Ahmadinejad. Is he on the Zionist payroll? Well I suppose you could hire a better one --Bin Laden. But as he's already on the payroll, that would be double-dipping.

Is it possible Peak Oil will save us from ourselves? Armageddon will require goombahs of energy. Maybe we'll run out before we can annihilate one another.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Growth is not possible

Of course I'm not advocating eliminating public schools. I'm just pointing out how we make it too easy for those who can't afford kids to have them anyway. The cost is more and more being passed on to the taxpayers. Good thing we have such a financially sound government to "pay" for it.:rolleyes:

If having kids meant total poverty and destitution for Joe six-pack making $20k year, he'd think twice where he put mister willie on Saturday night. We aren't talking Ozzie and Harriet here. We are talking one night stands, welfare brood mares, and irresponsible people who can't take care of themselves much less a child.

Just today I received in the mail a notice from the IRS that an part time employee has not paid his 2007 taxes and now I'll have to start taking extra money out of his pay. The guy is divorced with three kids. One with disabilities. He's constantly behind on child support. Yet he and his new "fiance" are thinking about having a child together because that "would be like, neat." Why not? What's one more kid on food stamps, medicaid, etc. It's not like he is going to be paying for it. Oh, and she is in the middle of a bankruptcy. Perfect time to have another kid at age 40. :eek:

I know poor people don't have kids just because of the freebies. I seriously doubt they put much thought into any of it. But it does allow them to avoid facing the real financial consequences.

Oh, and the tax breaks are substantial for many when you consider the deduction for dependents, tax credits, etc, all x 18+ years. I'm not saying I'm against all these subsidies. Only pointing out that they have unintended consequences. Not unlike the push to make everyone a homeowner.

You can't get an argument from me on this.
I strongly agree - it's time we started making serious efforts to discourage population growth.
And I do see your basic point - we allow irresponsible people to have many children that we all pitch in to pay for, indirectly.