Why the bears are wrong

[metalman]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

what a bizarre article. 99 out of 100 stories are 'green shoots' for every one that's bearish... and this article says the one out of 100 who was right about the bear market should join the bulls who were wrong about it.

how stupid. here, try this instead...

• November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble
• August 1999: No Y2K Disaster
• November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End
• March 2000: Internet Bubble Top
• April 2000: A Bear Market is Born
• January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession
• September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270
• August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble
• January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End
• January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction
• June 2005: Housing Bubble Top
• October 2006: Recession Q4 2007
  
• December 27, 2007: Start of Debt Deflation Bear Market
• September 15, 2008: Fed Funds spread signals crash

add...

jun 2008... start of commercial property crash

mar 27, 2009... debt deflation bear market first bounce start

soon add...

jun 17, 2009... debt deflation bear market first bounce end

you appear to be itulip-blind... yet it's how i 've made $$$ money for > 10 yrs.

positive trends...

August 1999: No Y2K Disaster
September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270
mar 27, 2009... debt deflation bear market first bounce start

[nero3]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

I'll sum up here:

Why a bull-market in on /correction phase now or could be over:

Falling Libor rate/ Improving credit conditions / new bubble in place (alternative energy, emerging market's) (the new bubble in place is what Rosenberg miss) (it is possible to have a non US consumer driven bubble).

Why it's not as in 1929: Much lower stock market in real terms, deflated through inflation after the War on Terror began (this is what those that read about japan for 2 hours, and not 100 hours miss). The US must also remember that as long as the economy is weak, and the government print, the side effect of that will be a bull-market somewhere.

[metalman]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

Improving credit conditions / new bubble in place (alternative energy, emerging market's) (the new bubble in place is what Rosenberg miss)

yes, it is also the bubble that ej alone forecast here...

you don't trust him to let me know when it's safe to put $$$ in it?

[nero3]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

yes, it is also the bubble that ej alone forecast here...

you don't trust him to let me know when it's safe to put $$$ in it?

You mean, you are waiting for EJ to tell you when to go all in on first solar, or some infrastructure stock?

In my opinion, I doubt a lot of the alternative energy stocks, such as sunpower (SPWRA), is going to sell much lower than they are now.

[metalman]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

You mean, you are waiting for EJ to tell you when to go all in on first solar, or some infrastructure stock?

In my opinion, I doubt a lot of the alternative energy stocks, such as sunpower (SPWRA), is going to sell much lower than they are now.

i recall an interview in feb 2008 when ej said not to buy alt energy stocks then because a deep bear market on the way. i believe his argument how is the macro-economy... not self sustaining... another down leg coming, so not an issue with alt energy stocks but stocks in general. mid june he said go to long bonds... we all thought he was nuts... but look...

[nero3]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

i recall an interview in feb 2008 when ej said not to buy alt energy stocks then because a deep bear market on the way. i believe his argument how is the macro-economy... not self sustaining... another down leg coming, so not an issue with alt energy stocks but stocks in general. mid june he said go to long bonds... we all thought he was nuts... but look...

I am unsure. Maybe there will be another leg down. However I doubt it will be below the march low. It appears to me that the market is getting dragged up by all the money printing, and that this have been pushing yields up and bonds down since December. It's the same with agricultural commodities. There is good fundamentals for creating bubbles in this environment.

[jpatter666]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

i recall an interview in feb 2008 when ej said not to buy alt energy stocks then because a deep bear market on the way. i believe his argument how is the macro-economy... not self sustaining... another down leg coming, so not an issue with alt energy stocks but stocks in general. mid june he said go to long bonds... we all thought he was nuts... but look...

Metalman,
I agree that EJ got it (for now) on this; I didn't really doubt the call so much as the risk/reward -- I think when treasuries finally poom, it's going to be fast and furious, a gapping "event" that I want no part of. I'm out of treasuries completely (not long or short) but quite happy with the current turn since it allows me to position for the eventual treasury event.

[nero3]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

One thing that is a general confusion I think, is that the dow is more expensive than Japanese stocks. Japanese stocks rose through the seventies while the dow was flat, and was already then a bubble, then it carried on to 1989. Since then, Japanese stocks have again around 2003 regained contact with what is a reasonable price, in comparison to yields on gov bonds.

The dow went flat in the seventies, and first in around 1990 it was priced resonably, and then later from 1995-2000 there was a bubble, however, in 2003, as with japanese stocks, I think the market regained a proper valuation in relation to gov bonds. For the dow to drop to 5000, I think yields on 10 year gov bonds will have to drop to around 1,5 %, as long as yields on the 10 year stays around 3,5-4,5 %, I don't think it's possible for the dow to go down again to the march low. (the kind of lower and lower debt deflation bear market as japan had from 1989-2001, I think is only possible as long as there is a trend that gov bonds increase in value. If gov bonds are trending lower, in a controlled way, I think the market is more prone to go flat (when yields is above 6 % for the 10 year), and until that point is reached, to trend higher. Because the 6 % yields and above that contribute to stagflation and a flat market, might not be the same in asia, market's there can do very well, even the US is having problems with inflation. Infact, it becomes attractive, because of it.

[Raz]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

Here is one incredibly good money manager who doesn't think we iTulipers are crazy.
Keep in mind that his horizon is three+ years - and he's not bullish on the stock market.

http://greenlightadvisor.com/glablog...bert-rodriguez


BTW, how on earth do you get a video to embed?
I can't do it no matter what I try!:mad:

[tree]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

You can't argue with testosterone.

Oh yes I can.

[bradzepfan]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

My God. There he goes with the Alex Jones bashing again. Fair enough, Alex Jones is not an economist. He is a journalist. And a damn fine one at that. In the famous words of William S. Burroughs, "A paranoid is someone who has all the facts."

[goadam1]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

The dow as an average is not that hot, it's actually 20 % lower now than in nov last year in real terms (measured against my local currency), even it's around the same 8100 level. But certain sectors, is good, emerging market's and certain stocks can do very well I think.

the reason I have the allocation is it is the company pension that I am not allowed to actively manage.

[nero3]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

My God. There he goes with the Alex Jones bashing again. Fair enough, Alex Jones is not an economist. He is a journalist. And a damn fine one at that. In the famous words of William S. Burroughs, "A paranoid is someone who has all the facts."

It does not matter what facts you give to a guy like that, because his "filter" is so out of whack, pretty much everything will get distorted, and he will only seek out facts that his "dog sniffing in trash container" style of intuition will get interested in and pretty much ignore anything else.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

BTW, how on earth do you get a video to embed?
I can't do it no matter what I try!:mad:

Raz, simply copy and paste all the embed code directly in the body of the message... thats all.

[metalman]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

Here is one incredibly good money manager who doesn't think we iTulipers are crazy.
Keep in mind that his horizon is three+ years - and he's not bullish on the stock market.

http://greenlightadvisor.com/glablog...bert-rodriguez


BTW, how on earth do you get a video to embed?
I can't do it no matter what I try!:mad:

no can do... they got no embed doodah.