Don't Worry All Recessions Are Local

[Mish]

Don't Worry All Recessions Are Local

The "All Real Estate Is Local mantra died with a national housing bust so it's time for a new mantra: "All Recessions Are Local". Florida and Michigan are both in recession. California is headed there. Foreclosures are soaring and sentiment is sour everywhere. But which came first: the sour mood or rising foreclosures? The answer is interesting.

Mish

[baw]

Re: Don't Worry All Recessions Are Local

If attitude is everything- it looks like 2/3rds of the economy is developing a bad attitude.

[Mish]

Re: Don't Worry All Recessions Are Local

A recent survey showed that 2/3 of the country thought the US was either in recession or headed there. Poll was reported in August. I talked about it in http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...ne-prices.html

Kevin depew on Minyanville talked about it as well.
Mish

[FRED]

Re: Don't Worry All Recessions Are Local

A recent survey showed that 2/3 of the country thought the US was either in recession or headed there. Poll was reported in August. I talked about it in http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...ne-prices.html

Kevin depew on Minyanville talked about it as well.
Mish

We projected in DOW Dissonance, Aug. 1, 2007 that consumer sentiment was due to decline in the coming August report:

Conclusions

1) The factors that have been driving the DOW up for the past year have not been reflected in consumer confidence because the rise has been driven by factors that do not impact consumer confidence, as we have discussed elsewhere: "The recent bull market surge has been in part driven by the boom in M&A, float shrink caused by share buy-backs and, of course, private equity."

2) The DOW volatility will increase as the Q4 2007 recession approaches. The DOW will enter a bear phase coincident with the recession.

3) Consumer confidence peaked yesterday for this economic cycle and will decline until the bottom of the cycle, although not in a straight line. Recent declines in the DOW will begin to be reflected in consumer confidence in August.